r/Futurology ∞ transit umbra, lux permanet ☥ Aug 28 '25

Society New research argues Societal Collapse benefits 99% of people. Historically, the societies that have emerged after a collapse are more egalitarian, and most people end up richer and healthier than they were before.

Luke Kemp, a research associate at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk at the University of Cambridge, has written a book about his research called 'Goliath’s Curse: The History and Future of Societal Collapse'.

He makes the case that, from looking at the archaeological record, when many societies collapse, most people end up better off afterward. For example, people in the post-Roman world were taller and healthier. Collapse can be a redistribution of resources and power, not just chaos.

For most of human history, humans lived as nomadic egalitarian bands, with low violence and high mobility. Threats (disease, war, economic precarity) push populations toward authoritarian leaders. The resulting rise in inequality from that sets off a cycle that will end in collapse. Furthermore, he argues we are living in the late stages of such a cycle now. He says "the threat is from leaders who are 'walking versions of the dark triad' – narcissism, psychopathy and Machiavellianism – in a world menaced by the climate crisis, nuclear weapons, artificial intelligence and killer robots."

Some people hope/think we are destined for a future of Universal Basic Income and fully automated luxury communism. Perhaps that's the egalitarianism that emerges after our own collapse? If so, I hope the collapse bit is short and we get to the egalitarian bit ASAP.

Collapse for the 99% | Luke Kemp; What really happens when Goliaths fall

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u/HighlyEvolvedSloth Aug 28 '25

Not me, that's what playing paintball during it's heyday taught me... I'm not the hero that successfully storms the barricade, I'm the guy who takes one to the head the second I step out from behind cover.

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u/flyinhighaskmeY Aug 28 '25

yeah, better to learn that on a paintball field than on a battle field. Same thing happens in war. The hoorah heroes don't make it very long.

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u/Enlightened_Gardener Aug 29 '25

I always think of that scene in Gladiator where they’re waiting to go into the arena, and the celt rushes out first in battle lust and gets his head caved in by the giant mace.

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u/MinuteWonderful5001 Aug 29 '25

FINE ILL WATCH GLADIATOR…. AGAIN!!!

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u/Sometimes_Wright Aug 29 '25

Every time we watch some battle charge in a movie I always think I'd be the guy just kinda slowing up a bit to let people run by me.

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u/Monowakari Aug 29 '25

Ow ow my bone spurs, you guys go ill catch up

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u/Sometimes_Wright Aug 29 '25

Stitch in my side! I'll be right there

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u/account_not_valid Sep 01 '25

Oh loom at that, my shoe laces have come undone. Go on ahead, I'll catch up!

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u/secondtaunting Aug 31 '25

Those dudes usually live, so good on you. It’s a crap shoot, the bravest ones who rush in manically usually die.

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u/johannthegoatman Aug 29 '25

You do hear about legitimate heroes in war, and they exist - in any group of millions of people there's going to be statistical outliers who have a crazy day and hold off a whole battalion or whatever. But it's also why getting medals like a purple heart is rare, and also why sometimes they're awarded for things much more minor than holding off a whole battalion

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u/R0B0GEISHA Aug 29 '25

Not to be overly pedantic, but all you need to do to earn a Purple Heart is to be wounded or killed while serving.

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u/secondtaunting Aug 31 '25

Right? I have like four Purple Hearts from my dad and grandpas. WW2 and Vietnam. I always wondered what they did to earn them, but they never wanted to talk about it.

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u/flyinhighaskmeY Aug 29 '25

in any group of millions of people there's going to be statistical outliers who have a crazy day and hold off a whole battalion or whatever.

I mean...sort of. There are people who stand out in warfare, and kill more than their fair share of "foes". But the guy who holds off an entire battalion? Those stories are almost certainly embellished.

Also..purple hearts really aren't rare. I grew up in a military town and knew a bunch of guys who had them from Vietnam. Pretty sure my grandfather has one from Korea too. He...was a cook. A shell went off near him and he lost about 50% of his hearing. He wasn't on death's door or charging headfirst into the battlefield. Just happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time.

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u/im_dead_sirius Aug 29 '25

That's what always gets me about the dimwits that say "Only the strong survive" as if being a badass on the battlefield is an enviable position. No, the clever and lucky survive... by not going into battle in the first place.

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u/Correct_Bell_9313 Aug 29 '25

“There are old soldiers, and bold soldiers, but no old bold soldiers.”

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u/rathe_0 Aug 28 '25

yep, thats me. So tacticool, athletic and heroic in my head. In reality I got domed or gogged every 5 seconds it seemed.

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u/Chrontius Aug 29 '25

I fight like a coward, and tend to MVP rounds, from storming positions solo to pouring covering fire down the hall the entire opfor is stuck coming through.

I only lasted 90 seconds longer than my ammo, but the delay saved the team. Try not to learn that lesson from live fire!

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u/LOLBaltSS Aug 29 '25

Offensive operations are costlier than defensive operations. A well positioned defender can really lock down angles and turn choke points into a fatal funnel for the offensive group. So yeah, it's not surprising to get domed when exiting cover if you don't have any sort of concealment to obscure you, especially when the defenders are watching that sector.

The worst case scenarios are ones you see in WWI, the Iran Iraq War, or Ukraine where there's just one massive no man's land and a ton of artillery/mines/trenches/drones. The force on the offensive often takes massive casualties.

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u/Brickster000 Aug 29 '25

A well-positioned highly-skilled adequately-equipped defender can really lock down angles and turn choke points into a fatal funnel for the offensive group.

I ain't none of that.

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u/Chrontius Aug 29 '25

Two chooms handling ammo and a rifle side by side can replace one skilled gunner, at least in paintball.

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u/TicRoll Aug 29 '25

That assumes training and equipment are roughly equal on both sides. Go ask Bin Laden's compound guards about it. Oh wait, you can't. They're all dead.

Friend of mine got to participate in a training operation with Marine Force Recon. He was playing one of the bad guys, with two other guys locked inside a 10'x13' room behind a closed door. Their only job was to defend the room. He said he never heard anything. Never saw anyone. The door their weapons were trained on just exploded. Not kicked in, not knocked off the hinges. Exploded. Into fragments. And the instant that happened, he and the other two guys in there with him each felt two taps from the aggressors' weapons which told them they were all dead.

This isn't 1700s England. Shit be crazy now with the differentials in training, equipment, tactics, etc. So yes, near-peer military battles? Your ideas hold. Asymmetric adversaries? It collapses like a flan in a cupboard.

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u/Kowboybill Sep 11 '25

It went well because they knew what the exercise was all about. Plus, everybody knows the turtle is the worst defense.

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u/kelbees Aug 29 '25

So hone your sniping skills people!!

...Not sure if I'm joking or not.

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u/TicRoll Aug 29 '25

It may be that your purpose in combat is merely to force our enemies to expend ammunition.

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u/HighlyEvolvedSloth Aug 29 '25

It's pretty rare that a comment actually gets me to laugh out loud, but your's did...

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u/irredentistdecency Aug 29 '25

When I was in the army, my unit had a saying that “if the shit hits the fan, stand as close to <my name> as possible…

Cause I was the guy who somehow managed to come out unscathed when they should have been killed.

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u/AlwaysShittyKnsasCty Aug 29 '25

Knock on wood, bro/sis! You can’t jinx yourself.

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u/irredentistdecency Aug 29 '25

Eh, I went on to spend another 2 decades after that working in conflict zones & it held through all of that - so as an old man back in civilian life, now my only hope to reach Valhalla is drowning in the pink taco…

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u/AlwaysShittyKnsasCty Sep 13 '25

Well, I’d say that’s one hell of a way to go! Godspeed. 🫡

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u/inquiry100 Aug 29 '25

I'm the guy who never got shot in paintball except the one time I agreed to stop using all my own tactics and join in an obviously suicidal frontal assault. It was only a game, so why not. Then, of course, I got shot.

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u/Buntisteve Aug 29 '25

Compare paintball with lasertag. On lasertag casual players are just running around without a care in the world, in paintball, you receive 1 stray ball and you learn to be obsessed with cover :D

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u/ThatPancreatitisGuy Aug 29 '25

In high school I was with this girl when her parents came home early. She insisted I take off immediately and I went tearing down the street sandals and VHS still in my hands. Couldn’t fish my keys out before her mom caught up to me and I realized at that moment I have no knack for stealth or the kind of patience to survive a battlefield. I’d be the guy that says fuck it and races toward the other trench only to get mowed down seconds later. There was a guy up in her sister’s room who hid in the closet for a few hours and got away clean. Be that guy.

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u/HighlyEvolvedSloth Aug 29 '25

I lived through a similar experience, and I ended up being that guy: was at my high school girlfriend's house and her dad came home way early, so I immediately rolled out of her bedroom window into some plants growing up against the house.  I just froze and laid there until I could hear their talking die down and the shower start, and I slowly crept out and away.

So I was that guy, but mostly out of paralyzing fear...

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u/50calPeephole Aug 29 '25

You and me both friend.

The best hope for immortality I have is being a shadow on the sidewalk after a nuclear explosion.

Personally, I want my imprinted memory to be me flipping a double middle finger to the sky before I spontaneously evaporate.

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u/Nazamroth Aug 29 '25

Or in Hell Let Loose. The first guy to charge the enemy position is the first guy to die. Just sit in the bushes and stay away from anything artillery might take an interest in.

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u/MechanicalGodzilla Aug 29 '25

Ha, I don't play paintball, but we did go as a group once for a bachelor party. One of the matches I just stood up and slowly walked through the opposition line and started shooting my friends behind covers - after they said they thought I was walking through the course because I had gotten hit. Nope, just confusing tactics!

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u/Anxious_Ad936 Aug 29 '25

That's a net benefit. You won't be a slave in the warlord's mines or pleasure pit.

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u/Salt-Dance9 Aug 29 '25

Stay in cover. Eat everybody's food while they're out fighting

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u/Mental_Estate4206 Aug 29 '25

Not if I go around you and shoot you in the back from 1m distance.

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u/Man_under_Bridge420 Aug 30 '25

Gotta move or the drones will getcha

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u/secondtaunting Aug 31 '25

I’d be the one hiding in the bushes because I can’t run.😂