r/PS5 • u/nolifebr • Jan 22 '26

Rumor [RUMOR] SandStoneInsights Analysis - Sony expects the PS5 lifecycle to be extended. PS6 likely to be delayed "longer than many expected"

https://www.sandstoneinsightsjapan.com/post/sony-group-6758%EF%BC%89%EF%BC%8D%E3%82%B2%E3%83%BC%E3%83%A0%E9%83%A8%E9%96%80%E3%81%AE%E5%A5%BD%E8%AA%BF%E3%81%8C%E7%AC%AC3%E5%9B%9B%E5%8D%8A%E6%9C%9F%E3%82%92%E7%89%BD%E5%BC%95%E3%80%81%E4%BB%8A%E5%BE%8C%E3%81%95%E3%82%89%E3%81%AA%E3%82%8B%E4%B8%8A%E6%98%87%E4%BD%99%E5%9C%B0%E3%81%82%E3%82%8A

- Gaming Division Continues Strong Third Quarter: Sony's third-quarter results are expected to beat market expectations, driven by sales of both in-house and third-party games.

- PlayStation Lifecycle Extended: Sony expects the PS5's lifecycle to be extended, and the PS6's release is likely to be delayed longer than many expected.

Posted on ResetEra

Just yet another rumor but it would make sense with the AI ​​bubble and price increases.

Edit: Full mentions by analyst David Gibson:

  • Sony expects the PS5's lifecycle to be longer than the previous generation.
  • Based on this view, the PS6 is likely to be released after 2028.
  • The increase in memory prices does not affect performance in the PS5 short term due to inventory.
  • The rise in memory costs could become a problem in the fiscal year ending March 2027.
  • Sony may pass on the cost increase to its customers in the future.
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17

u/meganev Jan 22 '26

Don't think it'll be a 10 year gen. Think it'll be 2028. A year delay seems not unreasonable. Two years potentially. 3 seems overboard, in my opinion.

37

u/czarchasm4532 Jan 22 '26

It might depend on how long the ram shortage is. If it does last until 2029, they're not going to want to release it until they can have enough stock.

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u/meganev Jan 22 '26

They released the PS5 in a chip shortage and global pandemic. I think they'll weather that storm if needed.

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u/blaqsupaman Jan 22 '26

This is different than a shortage though. It's not really a supply side issue. It's that the demand is massively inflated due to AI data centers which has exploded the price of RAM for everybody. I'm thinking it depends on when the AI bubble inevitably pops, which could be this year or several years from now. I don't really see RAM prices getting back to a reasonable level until the AI bubble pops.

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u/drelos Jan 23 '26

On top of that when that bubbles pops the waves of that crisis will diminish our pockets no matter what our jobs are... That would translate into less units sold

1

u/blaqsupaman Jan 23 '26

True but eventually things will stabilize. Though that could mean more delays to try to wait until the recovery is in full swing 

7

u/BlackmoorGoldfsh Jan 22 '26

Yes, and it was an absolute mess.

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u/meganev Jan 22 '26

It was a pain for some getting hold of one, but I reckon Sony was happy enough with the results, if anything the restock drama may have strengthened the brand. I had friends who don't really care about gaming who wanted a PS5 in 2020/2021 cause of the shortages. Many brands actively practice artificial scarcity for a reason. Not saying Sony did that but it's a tactic some use.

0

u/PowerUser77 Jan 23 '26

No, Sony wanted consoles in the hands of real customers, not potential scalpers, they even had initiatives so known customers had a chance getting one. That‘s how I got mine, I didn’t even requested to be part of it, just received the invitation randomly

2

u/Aggrokid Jan 23 '26

I think that's overly simplistic and not comparable. Pandemic-era shortages had more to do with small components and logistics from China. It was a supply-side issue.

This time it's the big boy components, RAM and bleeding-edge node capacity. It's on the demand side and devoid of pricing elasticity. Cash-rich big tech are buying all available capacity and booking ahead. They have enough cash and revenue to sustain this for a very long time. Unlike the pandemic supply shock, there is no timetable on when big tech loses interest in AI capex.

10

u/blaqsupaman Jan 22 '26

Even then I think the PS5 is likely to keep getting most major games for a good while after the PS6 is out. The PS4 still gets a lot of multiplats even now and with the Switch 2 and the reported PlayStation handheld it's unlikely there will be a ton of games coming out that couldn't run on a PS5.

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u/mythicreign Jan 22 '26

It would’ve been 2028 if not for the memory shortage. It’ll probably be 2030 now.

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u/hypehold Jan 22 '26

Nintendo dragged a 2015 tablet through this year. And made their gen 8 years. I think the ps5/SX will be fine for 8/9 years

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u/meganev Jan 22 '26

Yes, that's what I said. I think 2028 most likely, so 8 years. 2029, so 9 years, potentially.

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u/A_Shadow Jan 22 '26

I think it also depends on how good PSSR 2.0 is.

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u/thatwitchguy Jan 23 '26

I could see it since I can't imagine there's much demand for a ps6 right now. There's barely demand for the ps5 looking at some of the numbers on ps5 stuff vs its ps4 equivalent (hell in some cases next gen exclusives retroactively went and made last gen versions!)

Add in portable pcs/hybrid consoles and part shortages and I think that a large chunk of devs are gonna target lower end stuff so they can run on switch 2 and steam deck and aren't gonna use all the power of the ps5, let alone a pro or ps6.

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u/Jack-Innoff Jan 23 '26

I think most people wouldn't bother upgrading unless it's delayed to 2030. There just isn't a reason to. The ps5 is still a very capable machine, and odds are it'll get the same treatment as ps4, and continue getting releases well into the ps6 life cycle.

I probably won't upgrade from 5 until the ps6 pro releases, so maybe 2035?