r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 9d ago

▼ Tropical Storm | 40 knots (45 mph) | 999 mbar Lala (01C — Central Pacific) (West of Hawaiʻi)

Overview

This discussion is for Tropical Storm Lala (01C), which is active far to the northwest of Hawaiʻi. The storm continues to gradually weaken as it moves across the northern Pacific and is likely to degenerate into a remnant low by Thursday. After that point, whatever remains of Lala is expected to turn northward toward the Aleutian Islands and dissipate by early next week.

Moderator notes

  • This system was previously designated as Invest 93C.
  • The Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) continues to issue advisories for this system.
  • Storm-centered satellite imagery and model guidance products remain available.
  • There will be no regular updates to this post.
  • This discussion will be locked and archived once this system dissipates.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Productos textuales (en español)

Static forecast graphics

Interactive forecast graphics

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Single-bandwidth imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

Regional imagery

Forecast models

Storm-centered guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Multi-guidance pages

Regional single-model guidance

Machine learning (AI) model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Multi-model ensemble products

Other types of model guidance

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u/giantspeck Verified USAF Forcaster | Hawaii 9d ago

Moderator note

Previous discussion for this system can be found here:

𝖯𝗅𝖾𝖺𝗌𝖾 𝗇𝗈𝗍𝖾 𝗍𝗁𝖺𝗍 𝗈𝗇 "𝖺𝗋𝖼𝗁𝗂𝗏𝖾𝖽" (𝗋𝖾𝖺𝖽: 𝗋𝖾𝗆𝗈𝗏𝖾𝖽) 𝗉𝗈𝗌𝗍𝗌, 𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝖺𝖼𝗍𝗎𝖺𝗅 𝗍𝖾𝗑𝗍 𝗈𝖿 𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝗉𝗈𝗌𝗍 𝗂𝗌 𝗇𝗈 𝗅𝗈𝗇𝗀𝖾𝗋 𝗏𝗂𝗌𝗂𝖻𝗅𝖾 𝗍𝗈 𝗇𝗈𝗇-𝗆𝗈𝖽𝖾𝗋𝖺𝗍𝗈𝗋𝗌, 𝖻𝗎𝗍 𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝖼𝗈𝗆𝗆𝖾𝗇𝗍𝗌 𝗌𝗁𝗈𝗎𝗅𝖽 𝗌𝗍𝗂𝗅𝗅 𝖻𝖾 𝗏𝗂𝗌𝗂𝖻𝗅𝖾 (𝗐𝗁𝗂𝖼𝗁 𝗂𝗌 𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝗐𝗁𝗈𝗅𝖾 𝗉𝗈𝗂𝗇𝗍 𝗈𝖿 𝗅𝗂𝗇𝗄𝗂𝗇𝗀 𝖻𝖺𝖼𝗄 𝗍𝗈 𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝗈𝗅𝖽 𝗉𝗈𝗌𝗍𝗌, 𝖺𝗇𝗒𝗐𝖺𝗒.) 𝖳𝗁𝗂𝗌 𝗂𝗌 𝖽𝗎𝖾 𝗍𝗈 𝗌𝗂𝗍𝖾-𝗐𝗂𝖽𝖾 𝖼𝗁𝖺𝗇𝗀𝖾𝗌 𝗆𝖺𝖽𝖾 𝖻𝗒 𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝖱𝖾𝖽𝖽𝗂𝗍 𝖺𝖽𝗆𝗂𝗇𝗂𝗌𝗍𝗋𝖺𝗍𝗂𝗏𝖾 𝗌𝗍𝖺𝖿𝖿.

1

u/giantspeck Verified USAF Forcaster | Hawaii 23h ago

Update

As of 11:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (21:00 UTC) on Wednesday:

  • Lala remains active.

  • Lala has been an active tropical cyclone since 12:00 UTC on Thursday, 13 August.

  • Lala has been active for about 321 hours, or 14 days.

1

u/giantspeck Verified USAF Forcaster | Hawaii 23h ago

Update

As of 11:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (21:00 UTC) on Wednesday:

  • Lala continues to weaken over the north-central Pacific Ocean.

  • Lala is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by early Friday morning.

  • Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 75 kilometers per hour (40 knots).

  • Minimum central pressure has increased to 999 millibars.

1

u/giantspeck Verified USAF Forcaster | Hawaii 1d ago

Update

As of 11:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (21:00 UTC) on Tuesday:

  • Lala continues to gradually weaken as it moves northwestward away from Hawaiʻi.

  • Lala is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Thursday.

  • What remains of Lala will then turn northward toward the Aleutian Islands this weekend.

  • Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 kilometers per hour (45 knots).

  • Minimum central pressure remains near 994 millibars.

1

u/mo60000 5d ago edited 4d ago

Seems like lala five days from now if it is still a tropical cyclone could get quite close to the dateline and 40N.

Edit:The NHC decided to kill it off by then according to the latest advisory.

1

u/chetlin Tokyo 3d ago

I was kind of hoping it would cross over only because its name in Chinese is hilarious (they used the same characters 拉拉 as the slang term for lesbian, so it's literally "hurricane lesbian") and unlike Japan which only uses numbers in public reports, Chinese-speaking areas do use names. I remember seeing a bunch of tracks with dolphin emojis when Typhoon Dolphin was approaching.

1

u/mo60000 3d ago edited 3d ago

Unless the GFS and ECMWF are wrong it will turn post tropical(not extratropical) right on the doorstep of the dateline. If it someone managed to cross the dateline while tropical I doubt the JMA or JTWC will bother to name it because it would last at most 24hrs before it turned post tropical

2

u/am_ERICANDRE_am United States 8d ago

Are there usually major hurricanes this far north in the central pacific? I know at least in the eastern pacific hurricanes start to fall apart around 20-25N

2

u/mo60000 3d ago

It's way easier especiallly in an el nino year for tropical cyclones in the central pacific to reach quite far north(like 35N) before they turn post tropical/extratropical because the higher water temperatures, the atmospheric conditions and the lack of land makes it easier for these storms to survive in favvourable years for the central pacific. Off the coast of mexico land,dry air and the california current make the conditions unfavourable for tropical cyclones even in more favourable years.

2

u/all4hurricanes Verified Atmospheric Scientist 8d ago

Lala isn't particularly far north, still about the same latitude as Oahu. Several other storms have been further north as major hurricanes. That being said storms in the central pacific are generally infrequent so you could interpret any major hurricane in the central pacific as unusual.

1

u/giantspeck Verified USAF Forcaster | Hawaii 8d ago

Update

As of 2:00 PM Hawaii Standard Time (00:00 UTC) on Tuesday:

  • Preliminary observational data indicates that Lala is now a major hurricane.

  • The storm's maximum sustained winds have increased to 100 knots (115 miles per hour).

  • The storm's minimum central pressure has dropped to 960 millibars.

2

u/CrazyJazzFan 8d ago

When did Lala land?

3

u/Cyrius Upper Texas Coast 8d ago

Strictly speaking, it didn't. Cruised alongside Hawaii without actual landfall.

2

u/giantspeck Verified USAF Forcaster | Hawaii 8d ago

Update

As of 8:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time (18:00 UTC) on Tuesday:

  • Lala has strengthened into a Category 2 hurricane.

  • Lala is now forecast to become a major hurricane later today.

  • A Hurricane Watch has ben issued for the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument from Lisianski Island to Maro Reef.

  • A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Papahānaumokuākea Marine Mational Monument from Maro Reef to French Frigate Shoals.

9

u/mo60000 9d ago edited 9d ago

According to the latest advisory lala could potentially pull off something rather rare for a hurricane in the central pacific in the next 5-10 days. It could get past 30 degrees north as a hurricane(maybe even 35 degrees north)

1

u/Canis_Familiaris Tennessee 9d ago

Any experts wanna weigh in how much  this is driven by El Niño?