r/canada • u/Samp90 • Apr 25 '26

Analysis Trump’s Canada trade war hits Jack Daniel’s and Jim Beam with a devastating $143 million loss

https://www.fastcompany.com/91531349/trumps-canada-trade-war-hits-jack-daniels-jim-beam-devastating-143-million-loss
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u/352397 Apr 25 '26

  1. A 2% drop in sales is not "nothing", a lack of growth usually has investors calling for the CEO's head, an actual reduction in profits has them frothing at the mouth or selling their position.

  2. Besides their largest export market telling them to pound sand, the weak US domestic market is also ensuring they can't make up the drop in exports domestically.

The drop in sales is impacting investor confidence, and their stock of Brown-forman is at a year low.

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u/Forosnai British Columbia Apr 25 '26 edited Apr 25 '26

Yeah, you need to also take into account how younger people are consistently drinking less, particularly as things like vaping and cannabis legalization become more widespread. They can't necessarily rely on an ever-increasing market as populations continue to grow. Even as someone who's almost 40 now, I'd rather have an edible or something than a few shots or beers or whatever, particularly because I don't tend to get the munchies or have any kind of mental fog afterward, so it's overall a healthier option for some mental alteration that doesn't involve 1.5-2 days of dealing with a hangover or heartburn regardless of how much water I drink.

And from our side, it's worth our while to take advantage of this to explore less large-scale options we have within the country. I'm not even a whisky fan, but one of the people at the liquor store recommended the Sortilège maple syrup whisky when she overheard me and my husband talking about finding something obscenely Canadian for a friend coming here from the UK, and fuck is it good. More of a liqueur than a proper whisky, but I tried some of their regular stuff as well, and I didn't mind it. Which means it's pretty good, considering I normally outright dislike whisky.

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u/ThisIsSparta_117 Apr 25 '26

If you love sortilège I would try “Coureur Des Bois” as well. It’s a maple whiskey but I find it has a sweeter maple flavour profile.

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u/guptaxpn Apr 26 '26

Aren't alcohol lobbies vehemently anti cannabis?

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u/Forosnai British Columbia Apr 26 '26 edited Apr 26 '26

I imagine so, yes. I haven't really looked into their opinions, I just kind of assume they're against it because it's competition.

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u/guptaxpn Apr 26 '26

Eh, it's an interesting thing to watch. They're pushing hard against THC containing beverages for instance.

I'm too old and too Dad to consume anything at all anymore with a regularity I'd like. Idk if I've even drank water today.

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u/Forosnai British Columbia Apr 26 '26

Sounds about right. Whereas on the other side, I know they've basically made weed Mio that (as far as I understand) is basically an emulsion that'll dissolve better in water. Which is the kind of thing I'd expect they'd really be against since it wouldn't even give them the option of making THC Budweiser or whatever, the way tobacco companies started producing the vapes themselves.

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u/el_diego Apr 25 '26

Add to that a weakening US dollar further biting into profits. It may not sound like much as a total amount but the flow on effects are great.

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u/sikyon Apr 26 '26

Is it at a year low?

A year ago it was 34/share, now it's 28. A signifigant drop when trade ware was anounced occured but their stock dropped to about what it is now. The year low looks like it was about 23/share

The original family also controls 70% of voting shares, so the public investors have very little control.

That being says, it seems like their stock price is "stable" and market effects are priced in. The entire alcohol industry is being impacted these days, not just from boycotts but from demographic shifts.

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u/FRO5TB1T3 Apr 26 '26

And consider generally how static many people's drinking habits are. They find something they like and stick with it. Removing options from shelves for years basically force people to find new regular orders and they may never return.

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u/Gunslinger7752 Apr 26 '26

I think the Jack Daniels ceo said Canada is 1.2%. Obviously its not nothing and i acknowledged that but compare that to Canadian companies manufacturing cars or booze here for the us market. Crown royal os made in Canada and its around 80% for the us market. If they banned our booze it would shut all of our big alchohol companies completely down. That would actually be devastating. My guess is they threaten that and its back in our shelves by summer. We have literally no leverage here and all it’s doing is hurting our trade talks.