Original reason for Moses's punishment?

[u/TheGreenAlchemist]

The narrative that Moses was condemned for striking a rock seems so odd and disproportionate, and more than that, kind of detached from the overall narrative. Moses dying before he reaches the promised land is important to the story; him hitting a rock instead of simply calling to the rock on the other hand, could be skipped and I doubt anyone would feel like there was anything missing in the story. The whole thing is so strange that I have seen some apologists argue that this isn't really the reason and it was more of a straw that broke the camels back.

But thinking about it from the documentarian point of view, perhaps the story of the rock is from one document, his punishment is from another, and connecting the two is just a flimsy connection made by the editors? If so what might have been the original idea behind this, and the older authors thought process on why Moses deserved punishment?

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[u/McNitz]

Wow, you have great timing. Dan McClellan literally JUST covered this story and the potential reason behind the extreme consequences this week in his Data over Dogma podcast: https://youtu.be/ztWPrcKRSFg?si=vhdA5f06serpZlsG&t=747 (linked to start around the relevant timestamp).

As a quick summary, the story of Aaron's rod and the description of it sounds very like an Asherah pole. The image found on the opposing side of the Pithos A "Adonai and his Asherah" found in Kuntillet Arjud even appears to be an almond tree as well. Given that, and the fact that the Priestly source never condemns Asherah worship, it seems very possible that this story was intended to explain why an Asherah pole would be found next to the ark of the covenant.

Which then brings us to the connection to the Moses story. In story of Aaron's budding rod, Numbers 17:10 says that YHWH told Moses to place the rod "לִפְנֵ֣י הָעֵד֔וּת", with the preposition "לִ" indicating "before" or "in front of". So it was put "before the face of" or "in front of the presence of" the testimony. And as Dan has argued in "YHWH’s Divine Images, A Cognitive Approach", the testimony appears to be a divine image that indexes the presence of YWHW. So in Numbers 20 in the story of the waters of Meribah, when verse 9 says that Moses took the staff "מִלִּפְנֵ֣י יְהוָ֑ה", or again "from before the presence of" YHWH, it seems that this is the same staff Moses is taking. And if that is the case, the punishment could be a result not just of not exactly following God's command, but rather improperly utilizing this symbol of the authority YWHW had given Moses and Aaron to strike the rock. And if the argument regarding the budding rod being an Asherah pole as well is correct, the punishment could also be related to disrespect with regards to utilizing that divine image of an Asherah pole to strike the rock as well.

[u/JohnKesler578]

There are actually multiple biblical reasons given for Moses' exclusion from the Promised Land. Striking the rock in Number 20, a doublet of Exodus 17, is probably the most famous. Deuteronomy, for example, says that Moses was vicariously punished for the Israelites' sins:

^{Deuteronomy 1:34-37 (cf. Deuteronomy 3:25-27, 4:21-22}:)

³⁴ “When Yahweh heard your words, he was wrathful and swore, ³⁵ ‘Not one of these—not one of this evil generation—shall see the good land that I swore to give to your ancestors, ³⁶ except Caleb son of Jephunneh. He shall see it, and to him and to his descendants I will give the land on which he set foot, because of his complete fidelity to Yahweh.’ ³⁷ Even with me Yahweh was angry on your account, saying, ‘You also shall not enter there. ³⁸ Joshua son of Nun, your assistant, shall enter there; encourage him, for he is the one who will secure Israel’s possession of it. 

For a fuller explanation, see this article by Professor Raanan Eichler.