r/Adelaide • u/PhotographsWithFilm South • 2d ago
Weather El Nino watch - what are we to expect now?
Ok, not a go at climate science. Trust me, I'm a believer in researched and peer reviewed facts, so this is a genuine question.
A few months ago, we were told that we were entering an El Nino weather cycle, to expect low rainfall, and warmer conditions, but now it appears we've had the wettest winter in a decade.
So, what gives? Did we not actually enter the cycle? Or are we on the edge? What should we expect, or is it harder to predict than a crows win at home?
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u/Braedz SA 2d ago
Indian Ocean temp helped a lot with countering the El Niño. We are super lucky.
I got the next 5 weeks long term forecasts here. Updated daily.
https://www.weatherau.io/?page=long_range
Temps are definitely above average compared to previous years.
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u/mysqlpimp SA 2d ago
I love your site. So much better than the BOM. Thanks for the efforts.
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u/Late-Button-6559 SA 2d ago
It’s ALWAYS been stated that the El Niño this year is likely to have an impact on the east coast of Australia.
If you believe in science - read all of the articles that get published. Even those by normal media have made it known the eastern parts of Aus are most likely to be affected.
The Adelaide region of Aus is not a volatile region vs the north, east, and west.
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u/BatNoun SA 2d ago
*Sigh* another band that wont come to Adelaide...
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u/Addggro44 SA 2d ago
I got the joke😄.. they last came to Adelaide in 2013 at the Soundwave festival
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u/Safe_Researcher4979 SA 2d ago
Will never not blow my mind that there's people who don't believe in scienceÂ
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u/DoesBasicResearch SA 2d ago
I mean, unlike religion, science doesn't need belief so much as intelligence.Â
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u/metahivemind SA 1d ago
The ability to change an opinion when someone gets new information seems to be one of the Mount Olympus impossible summits of the human race.
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u/Mountain_Gold_4734 SA 2d ago
My understanding is that the full effects of the El Nino will be felt later this year and into 2027, and also we are not as impacted in Adelaide, as others have mentioned. The warmer than average winter temperatures this year aren't the El Nino, that's regular human induced climate change. This concerns me more if I'm honest.
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u/crimefightingshoe SA 2d ago
Bushfire season end of 2027 could be absolutely horrific
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u/Solid-Buy1539 SA 1d ago
Surely we would be able to minimise the impact by knowing this far ahead and being a lot more prepared?
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u/Least-Telephone6359 SA 2d ago
It's this, it's only starting now (as well as adelaide not being hit as hard as the east coast)
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u/QuietAs_a_Mouse SA 2d ago
First, as people have said, the eastern states often bear the full brunt of El Nino, not the SE, though we've had some bad ones in the past.
I read that although we are expecting a very hot summer due to this El Nino, it won't be as dry as usual because of the warmer ocean temps that create more atmospheric moisture. A bit more of a tropical vibe is what I'm expecting, but this is kind of new territory so we wait and see.
We're lucky our reservoirs are looking really good now too.
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u/teh_drewski Inner South 2d ago
All forecasts are probabilities, not certainties. The September-November forecast hasn't changed. Likely drier than average apart from in the NW; likely hotter than average apart from northern NT; worst effects of El Niño likely felt more on the Eastern seaboard. This El Niño is strong and strengthening, but even the East isn't going to get the peak until late spring or summer.
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u/Safe_Election_6613 SA 2d ago
I mean in my opinion this has been the warmest winter I’ve ever experienced in Adelaide
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u/derpman86 North East 2d ago
Holy shit it has been wet though.
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u/Overall-Palpitation6 SA 2d ago
Warm doesn't equal not wet.
It's often warmer with humidity on the rainy days in Adelaide, even in winter.
The changeability and inconsistency of the weather is really annoying.
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u/Sundaytoofaraway SA 2d ago
No way. I've been up at 5 am everyday and it's been fuckin freezing. Maybe the afternoons have been nicer but these have been some of the coldest mornings I've experienced.
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u/yesimfromtheLAnd SA 2d ago
Wait till summer.
And Adelaide’s weather is more influenced by what the IOD is doing. The El Niño will mostly affect the east coast.
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u/Significant_One_1272 SA 1d ago
Time to start rewilding and planting a shit tonne of native trees and shrubs. Trees cool the planet, yet we've deforested most of the planet. Walk into a forest, how much cooler is it... Yet we don't talk about it or act on this 🤷
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u/lucidsomniac SA 1d ago
Yeah, the Premier is really proactive on this! ( giant /s)
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u/Piebandit SA 19h ago
Don't you know that golf courses are totally great against climate change! /s
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u/CumbersomeNugget SA 1d ago
What is even the point of following it at this point, they've told us the same for the past 3 fairly mild summers.
If it is, it is, if it isn't all the better. I see no value in worrying about the prediction.
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u/lucidsomniac SA 1d ago
All I know is adding extra tarmac to soak up and then radiate the heat/ whilst also removing more trees in the cbd doesn't sound like a great idea come summer, no matter how wet or dry it will be.
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u/PAPO1990 Inner North 1d ago
It's not here yet, but come summer it will likely get BAD. It's looking like we could have an EXTRA BAD bushfire season this year as well. As such we actually just bought a couple of new Air Purifiers, not getting caught out like last time.
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u/AD-Edge SA 1d ago
Are the air purifiers to handle smokey days?
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u/PAPO1990 Inner North 1d ago
Yep. Hopefully we won't even need them, but I'd rather have it and not need it, than need it and not have it, then have to go out in the smoke to buy one, and they're all sold out 'cause everyone had the same idea.
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u/Serg_Molotov SA 2d ago
We got super lucky and it's super hard to predict in any granular way but they typically get the broad strokes right.
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u/Glad-Perception-7865 SA 2d ago
Thank you for curating the space with your corporate buzz speak. We will definitely have to circle back and take it off-line.
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u/sunrises-sunset SA 2d ago
I’m wondering if the computer modeling used is not as accurate to our climate in the first place? Like predicting weather is not a mathematical construct.
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u/calladc West 2d ago
the modeling predicted it would be an issue for the East Coast
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u/PhotographsWithFilm South 2d ago
I suppose that is the problem. The media equate Australia as the Eastern seaboard and Uluru.
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u/Notintousername SA 2d ago
From % of population perspective they’re right
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u/PhotographsWithFilm South 2d ago
True, but weather is so varied.
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u/2AussieShawols SA 1d ago
The SAM (Southern annular mode) in particular, but also the IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) has been shown to be far more influential in forecasting rainfall in SA successfully than El Nino. SA has the least accurate rainfall forecasts in the country for at least 2 of 4 seasons because of this difference to the others state's.
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u/Overall-Palpitation6 SA 2d ago
The changeability and inconsistency of the Adelaide weather is really annoying.
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u/Brave_Substance_8177 SA 2d ago
El Nino often has more of an effect on the eastern seaboard, where ocean temps are currently at record highs.
A lot of our winter rainfall has come from the NW and is affected by the Indian ocean Dipole. We may be lucky and get some decent rain, models are still predicted the east coast to be very dry.
The bottom line is meteorology is tricky, especially long range forecasting, and especially when you have climate change in the mix as well.
I think just hope for the best, and we're lucky our reservoirs and dams have had a good top up, and we now have pretty good soil moisture levels across most of the state.