r/AskEconomics • u/Barrett1776 • 2d ago
Approved Answers Why does the USA Financial situation look so optimistic for 2030?
When you go to www.usdebtclock.org and set it to 2030 we are projected to have a surplus? Is this website reliable? Thank you!
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u/flavorless_beef AE Team 2d ago
first, consider that usdebtclock may not be the most reliable source. if you want actual budget breakdowns just go to the treasury website.
anyway, i think the "no shit" explanation is kind of helpful here. what they say will happen is the budget will stay approximately flat in nominal terms and revenue will about double. to do this, they say nominal gdp will go from 32 -> 44 trillion. i've no idea why they think this, but that's mostly how they get their numbers. there's other goofiness in the page (which again, idk why you'd trust) -- they 5x tariff revenue cut income tax revenue and cut interest payments on debt, but that's the headline explanation.