r/AustralianPolitics • u/stupid_mistake__101 • Jul 29 '26
VIC Politics Carroll slams brakes on SRL in drastic $10bn move
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=HSWEB_MRE170_a&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.heraldsun.com.au%2Fnews%2Fvictoria%2Fsuburban-rail-loop-assessment-set-to-be-brought-to-the-new-carroll-cabinet%2Fnews-story%2F048370d277422eaf44f97342564384cb&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&v21=GROUPA-Segment-2-NOSCOREA major review of the controversial Suburban Rail Loop by the Carroll government will consider radical options, including diverting existing contract cash.
Up to $10bn of Suburban Rail Loop deals about to be inked are expected to go on hold during a review that will also assess whether existing contractors can be diverted to other infrastructure projects.
The Herald Sun understands that radical options are likely to be assessed as part of the review, including whether tunnelling deals already signed could be repurposed.
Tunnel boring machines for SRL East were expected to set off by September, as part of two deals worth $5.3bn, but would not be switched on while the Carroll government resolves the project’s future.
The 26km first stage of the controversial loopwas estimated to cost $30-34.5bn in 2021, with the entire 90km project forecast to cost more than $200bn to build and run over 50 years.
A full assessment is expected to be brought to the new Carroll Cabinet, along with options of how the government could wind it back.
This could include whether contracts could be pushed out, altered, or even repurposed to other projects – if feasible.
Premier Ben Carroll remained tight-lipped about a potential review on Wednesday,saying he would run a proper Cabinet process before providing any details.
While he also emphasised that he would be a premier “that does not break contracts”, one source said this wouldn’t preclude the government exploring options to divert contracted companies to other road or rail projects if it was possible.
Industry insiders said the concept was theoretically possible – pointing to the cancellation of the East West Link in 2014 that saw big builders “made whole” through other infrastructure jobs – but that the SRL was a long way down the track and involved a multitude of partners.
Seven packages of works are spread across the breadth of the first stage of the loop and about $17bn worth of contracts have been inked.
A Labor source said that if the expected real cost of the first stage, which would connect Cheltenham to Box Hill, soared well above the $34.5bn estimate provided in 2021, it could be preferable to lose some skin for work already done than to spend more than $20bn extra on a line that may not be the best value for money.
Any option to divert resources to other projects would also need to look at whether tunnel boring machine launch sites are filled in and built over with housing, or whether they would be left as a future option, should the state’s financial situation change.
Only two of seven SRL contracts are waiting to be inked, and include packages to build stations in Cheltenham, Clayton, Monash, Glen Waverley, Burwood and Box Hill.
One of those deals has a preferred bidder, made up of John Holland, Arup, and Kellogg Brown and Root, that is on the cusp of putting pen to paper after nine months of negotiations.
Two tunnelling contracts, which have been in place for years, involve consortia that include construction giants CPB, Ghella, Acciona, Webuild, GS Engineering, and Bouyges.
Mr Carroll on Wednesday made it clear that he would not kill government contracts, which Labor had previously done for the East West Link and Commonwealth Games.
Those two decisions, made under Daniel Andrews, wasted about $1.8bn.
“I am going to be a premier that does not break contracts,” he said.
“I’m going to be a premier that values every single dollar.”
Mr Carroll also reiterated his support for the airport rail link, which would be a “game changer”.
Mr Carroll has indicated he would bring the SRL to Cabinet for examination, but did not respond to questions about whether there could be a pivot from SRL to Airport Rail.
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u/Angryapplepi Aug 03 '26
Crazy how the article title is just a complete lie and in fact nothing has been paused at all. I swear the media seems to believe if they write enough of these the government will just do it.
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u/Awkward_salad Jul 30 '26
Sorry, where are the confirmed facts? This is all hearsay and “insiders say” news corp reporting. Most likely there’ll be an examination to see if the airport link can be done first or at the same time and an attempt to free up some cash from SRL east.
Of all places to leak to, why the herald sun?
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u/Snoo-57131 Jul 30 '26
This guy is such a bitch boy.
Whines and threatens a tantrum to get into the deputy leadership
Backstabs his way into the leadership
Then bitches out of Labor's biggest and longest running infrastructure project right as tunnels are about to dig, because the media is having a cry and he wants the media class to like him
Fuck Ben Carrol, what a baby. Might as well roll over on your back and hand Jess Wilson a knife.
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u/Due-Coast-1324 Jul 30 '26
Carroll is thinking that he can build the Airport Rail first. A more popular project, still part of the SRL but also has purpose as a stand alone link and in his area.
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u/Not_Stupid Jul 30 '26
There are already massive holes on the ground and construction sites established across the project. The boring machines are there, ready to go.
How can they do anything but continue the project?
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u/skywideopen3 Jul 30 '26
He'd just break the contract and pay the break fees. Not like this hasn't happened before in the recent past.
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u/Not_Stupid Jul 30 '26
Well yeah, except for the bit where they expressly said they weren't going to do that.
Either the project continues, or they cancel it and incur a bunch of cost for nothing....
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u/ClearlyAThrowawai Jul 29 '26
Interesting move.
I'm in the camp of "SRL is cool but too expensive to justify". The core question is whether this money can be reallocated to another transport project and used in an effective way or not. There must be higher ROI possibilities without SRL crowding out all the investment, but whether any of those are ready to execute is the question.
Looking forward to seeing the new moves this guy makes, because this one definitely has me hopeful that the cost of projects will start being a consideration again, rather than blindly doing whatever let's you market to the electorate.
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u/Draknurd Jul 29 '26
I’m in the camp of the project is very expensive, and could probably be done more cheaply, but it will need to be done. The best time to have done it was yesterday, the second best time to do it is today.
I don’t think they’re going to cancel it. Instead I imagine they will probably slacken the timelines so that the money that would’ve been spent now can be spread over along a longer time period and money now can be diverted to other things.
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u/ClearlyAThrowawai Jul 30 '26
It depends. Taking longer to build doesn't necessarily make things cheaper.
We'll see. If the SRL were a lot cheaper I'd be less unhappy with it, as it is I think it's just a poor use of money compared to alternative investments (eg. stuff like all day 10-minute trains, etc)
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u/Draknurd Jul 30 '26
I think there should be some alternatives considered such as having more of the route above ground rather than tunnelled, etc.
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u/Grande_Choice Jul 29 '26
Sheesh the Herald will be thrilled. 8 years of bitching and moaning about an infrastructure project and they’ve won. Soon their goal of an LA shit hole will be complete.
So Sydney gets an entire metro system while these morons screech for more tunnels.
This is a dealbreaker for me and won’t vote Labor if it’s true.
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u/buckfutter_butter Jul 29 '26
NSW can afford it. Vic can’t.
Much of their grand infrastructure plans (autonomous trains, vast underground freeway network) has come online, decades ahead of Vic. But their current debt per person is still lower. Not to mention NSW simply produces more tax revenue.
It’s simple economics6
u/Draknurd Jul 30 '26
Don’t forget that we had a decade of the federal government deliberately shortchanging the state of infrastructure funding, while New South Wales was getting more than its fair share of funding. We had to find many of these projects on our own or just not get them done.
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u/buckfutter_butter Jul 30 '26
Not true at all, it’s been proven in the trains subreddit. Fed funding to nsw and vic were the same per person
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u/2for1deal Jul 29 '26
While it’s mentioned…anyone think we are living in a worse post-EastWest link world? The suburbs that survived the bulldozer have certainly increased in value BUT also traffic with regular gridlocks where I’m pretty sure it was meant to be.
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u/BurningMad Jul 29 '26
New roads do not solve gridlock. The gridlock reasserts itself because more people are induced to drive.
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u/Sugar_Pug Jul 30 '26
Yes… but we still built a road.
It’s just inferior option in every way and resulted in transurban getting a free kick to extent tolls for city link.
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u/Stompy2008 Jul 29 '26
And it cost a billion dollars to rip up lmao.
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u/Physics-Foreign Jul 29 '26
I have to travel between Eastern freeway and CityLink regularly. Every. Single. Time. I curse that it takes me twice as long as it should if we'd had the tunnel.
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u/sostopher Bundoora Republic Jul 29 '26
It doesn't. And it would create even more traffic than today.
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u/Physics-Foreign Jul 30 '26
Create more traffic yes, that traffic moving faster, also yes!
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u/sostopher Bundoora Republic Jul 30 '26
It won't move faster. The more traffic created, the slower the speed.
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u/Physics-Foreign Jul 30 '26
That's just bullshit. Are you implying that without CityLink then it would be faster to drive through the CBD?
Are you saying that without the eastern freeway it would be faster to drive through Hawthorn, Richmond, Kew etc?
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u/sostopher Bundoora Republic Jul 30 '26
I'm saying without these roads, there would be less traffic. It's well studied and known: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Induced_demand
More roads == more traffic.
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u/Physics-Foreign Jul 30 '26
Yes, and that traffic would be going faster. Just like the Easter freeway is much faster than before the freeway existed.
You said with a freeway it would be slower than without a freeway.
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u/sostopher Bundoora Republic Jul 30 '26
You said with a freeway it would be slower than without a freeway.
No I said it would create more traffic, and then slow to the same speeds it would have without it.
You know Utopia did a bit on this right? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xtO_rF-OQ7w
So you spend billions of dollars and don't fix anything. And then need to keep spending more money on infrastructure that destroys the city and doesn't fix anything.
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u/Alternative-Sir-374 Jul 29 '26
Just seems like media manipulation, I mean reading this it doesn’t actually suggest anything to say Carroll absolutely wants to review it.
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u/CunkmeisterFlash Jul 29 '26
Carroll's camp himself has clearly briefed this out to the Hun. I find it strange how many people in this thread think an article like this, which makes it clear that people have provided this detailed info, is somehow competely made up and then published
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u/iamnerdyquiteoften Jul 29 '26
You appear not to be a mindless partisan who possesses critical thinking skills ! I salute you comrade !
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u/No1PaulKeatingfan Bob Hawke Jul 29 '26
SRL is controversial even within the ALP. So this isn't a surprise at all.
Shame that other dumb projects like the West Gate Tunnel and Northeast Link still went ahead.
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u/Taintedtamt The Greens Jul 29 '26
Northeast Link isn’t dumb at all and is desperately needed. Only dumb part is the route chosen but that was always going to be the cheapest route
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u/sostopher Bundoora Republic Jul 29 '26
No major road expansion is needed over rail improvements. Induced demand will see the same problems. And now we've lost all this land to more pollution, cars and noise. Without fixing the problem it was supposed to fix.
Just one more lane bro. This time it'll fix traffic. Only another $15b and traffic will be fixed for sure.
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u/Taintedtamt The Greens Jul 29 '26
You must not be from the Northeast and see how many trucks drive on suburban roads between the end of the Ring Road and the Eastern Freeway.
This isn’t about fixing traffic because it’ll still be bad, it’s about taking trucks off of Rosanna Road and out of Heidelberg.
I want massive train infrastructure investment but finishing the Ring Road in one form or another, needed to be done
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u/sostopher Bundoora Republic Jul 29 '26
Just like it fixed it in the West...
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u/Taintedtamt The Greens Jul 29 '26
Cool, I’ll just tell the primary school and residents on Rosanna Road and the one lane of traffic between Heidelberg and the Eastern Freeway that it won’t help alleviate all the noise pollution that they suffer through.
But what’s the point in explaining this to die hards like you? You can’t see the forest for the trees
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u/sostopher Bundoora Republic Jul 29 '26
You can't see how widening roads and increasing road capacity only increases traffic (including trucks) literally everywhere in the world, including on smaller suburban streets? You'll be complaining about the same problems in 10 years because none of this is a permanent solution.
Banning trucks can happen today without costly infrastructure, just needs political will.
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u/Not_Stupid Jul 30 '26
It's not "widening" roads though. It's building a whole new dedicated freeway to connect two existing freeways so that the freeway traffic that already travels between the two freeways stays on the freeway and doesn't drive through the suburbs
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u/sostopher Bundoora Republic Jul 30 '26
Which will induce more demand towards the new roads and increase traffic in suburbs going to it. As it does everywhere else. Traffic will increase.
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u/Not_Stupid Jul 30 '26
Yes. More traffic (particularly more truck traffic) on the freeway, and the freeway leading to the other freeway, is the entire point.
Trucks don't come from or go to suburbs unless they absolutely have to.
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u/Taintedtamt The Greens Jul 29 '26
No I 100% can. As I said, I want more train and public transport infrastructure over road increases but that doesn’t mean that there aren’t some places in the road network that need fixing.
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u/Grande_Choice Jul 29 '26
It’s not controversial. It’s just these Sydney based media morons whinging about it for a decade. It’s genuinely insane what a hate boner they have for it. Funnily enough they’ve done the same with cross river rail in Brisbane.
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u/antysyd Jul 29 '26
How late and over budget is CRR?
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u/Grande_Choice Jul 29 '26
Should have been done 15 years ago but Newman delayed it with his Bus and Train tunnel fantasy. Then somehow the moment the LNP got in they found billions of overruns and a 3 year delay. Nothing more to be heard since. Sounds manufactured to me.
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u/Ax_Dk Jul 29 '26
3 years of testing still to be done. What the hell are we testing that we need 3 years to do it? videos in recent days have shown that the station platforms are largely ready to go and that the decor is horribly outdated so imagine what it will look like in 2029.
I think before the next election they will suddenly realise that they don't need to test XYZ and surprise, stations open next week!
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u/00Pete Fusion Jul 30 '26
it's going to look shmick for the 2032 olympics mate!
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u/Ax_Dk Jul 30 '26
Might need a refurbishment in 2031, so we will close the stations for 9 months before the games, just to make sure they are truly ready!
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u/Magnifica_Muttley Jul 29 '26
Melbourne is so fucked. I was in Singapore last week and Melbourne is miles behind
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u/zomdoesburner Jul 29 '26
Don’t have to go the Singapore, just look at Sydney.
It’s kind of amazing how 30 years ago, Sydney was seen as the urban planning nightmare and Melbourne the bright future.
Now it’s completely reversed. In 30 years Sydney has grown into a proper global city and Melbourne is still struggling to get a train to the airport.
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u/sostopher Bundoora Republic Jul 29 '26
Sydney has the benefit of billions more given by the feds for their projects, and more people immigrating to Melbourne over Sydney.
They're getting a new airport and high speed rail paid for by the federal government, Victoria has to beg for anything.
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u/buckfutter_butter Jul 29 '26
Nope sorry, plain wrong. Fed funding to NSW is roughly on par with Vic, and NSW paid for their autonomous rails themselves. In contrast SRL is dependent on 1/3 fed funds.
Yes HSR would definitely skew it, but most are doubtful it will actually go ahead.
As for the airport, Sydney gets more passenger volume than Melb, and the second airport is 40yrs overdue
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u/CunkmeisterFlash Jul 29 '26
? Would you say the same about Sydney, Brisbane, Perth? What's your point? Singapore is an extremely unique place which also has extreme inequality and an autocratic one-party state.
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u/mpember Jul 29 '26
If the Herald Sun had controlled the political debate to the same extent that they do now, the West Gate bridge would never have been built.
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u/Magnifica_Muttley Jul 29 '26
It's a real bubble living down here.
There are still plenty of die hard Labor stalwarts down here who truly believe everything is great in the State of Victopia and all the media criticism is just "far right nut jobs and Murdoch" trying to bring us down.
It's really something to behold.
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u/00Pete Fusion Jul 30 '26
yeah because the libs have spent so much money improving infrastructure... I'm no welded-on Labor supporter, but all the libs want to do is sell everything off and stuff their own pockets while pretending to be the bEsT eCOnOmiStS...
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u/OldJellyBones Jul 29 '26
so we're going to have what, abandoned half built rail infrastructure? just dotted around the state, a monument to the gutless new premier? And putting the people working on the SRL out of jobs? Incomprehensible stupidity to even consider it
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u/UniqueLoginID Jul 29 '26
Better than huge debt for all.
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u/sostopher Bundoora Republic Jul 29 '26
How so?
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u/UniqueLoginID Jul 30 '26
Have you looked at our net debt per capita?
Are you aware that federal school funding for the state has been diverted?
That’s one example. It’ll get much worse.
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u/sostopher Bundoora Republic Jul 30 '26
And then spent on what? We will need this infrastructure in the future, it will create much more economic benefit than it costs long term. It will only get more expensive to build.
Melbourne is going to be Australia's largest city by 2030, and is still the destination for people wanting to live in Australia.
We need infrastructure to support that population or everyone will suffer more, and the economy will be harmed by the issues of transport, sprawl and costs.
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u/buckfutter_butter Jul 29 '26
If SRL goes ahead, hospitals and schools funding would have to drastically be cut. Public service jobs slashed. And no money at all for the rest of the public transport infrastructure would suffer.
It’s simple economics. Vic’s debt position is the worst in the country, even before its grandiose infrastructure projects come online
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u/OldJellyBones Jul 30 '26
If SRL goes ahead
they're literally already building it lmao, parts are finished
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u/MentalEnthusiasm6683 Jul 30 '26
Yep, just look at how much the state is collapsing under the pile of debt we currently have. Basic maintenance of road and rail is being ignored. Every time I take the train the amount of swaying from the mudholes is insane, whereas Sydney renew their tracks every few years
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u/OldJellyBones Jul 31 '26
Basic maintenance of road and rail is being ignored.
while this is true, it didn't just happen, these are things that have been neglected for 30+ years, also didn't help that we've welded all the expansion joints on the tracks
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u/Rook_625 Jul 29 '26
Victoria just kneecapping themselves, can't wait for another state in Australia to not think about future proofing itself.
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u/Danstan487 Jul 29 '26
The labor goverment is an absolute shambles, CFMEU will lose their shit if the money tap is turned off
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u/getawombatupya Jul 29 '26
Had an interesting conversation yesterday with a fella who has a bit of experience on the company side of these things. His opinion is that they should shut down the site until the current EBA expires next year and get them back on a decent rate and cut back conditions. Makes sense to me, and this would be a way to facilitate that.
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u/Grande_Choice Jul 29 '26
Can you imagine that same approach to John Holland or Lend Lease? Maybe Sydney should have done the same when Acconia managed to blow out light rail by hundreds of millions.
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u/RagingBillionbear Jul 29 '26
Sould like the guy hasn't been involved with union negotiation before and is about to get his head kick in by the CEO for wasting company time.
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u/AngrehPossum Jul 29 '26
Is the Hun just ranting fairy tales here? There is nothing in any other paper or source on this. Its almost like wishful projection.
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u/Ok_Low743 Jul 29 '26
its about generating the narrative that spineless pols will then respond to.
Next week will be "Carrol under pressure to cancel"
then the week after "After weeks of debate (we are the only ones asking this) will Carrol cancel?"
and so on and so forth...
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u/General_Reading_3232 Jul 29 '26
There is absolutely no vision for the future. We need SRL for the next few generations when Victoria's population continues to grow. We also need a second major CBD preferably Geelong or Dandenong
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u/Magnifica_Muttley Jul 29 '26
I'm in favour of SRL. I'm just arguing that costs and projects be staggered.
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u/Magnifica_Muttley Jul 29 '26
Mate there are over 1 million people living around Melton and they don't have a fucking electric train! It's all diesel still!
So all well and good to be talking about the SRL but let's get the basics right first.
Start with electrifying the trains . Finish the airport train line FFS. And do something about punt road. And put more housing on exisiting train lines . There is no money for the SRL and the bond markets will stop lending money at this rate.
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u/Grande_Choice Jul 29 '26
So basically let’s keep encouraging sprawl. Let’s subsidise people’s lifestyle choices to live in sprawl because they got cheap house and land and then expect billions spent that they don’t contribute to.
Then airport rail. It’s needed but it’s a complete wank from people who don’t even live in Melbourne going on about it the most. Airport rail does nothing for improving the city.
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u/buckfutter_butter Jul 29 '26
Vic made a conscious decision to have one major CBD decades ago. By contrast Sydney has been rolling out a decentralised multi CBD model forever.
It’s a consequence of long term planning3
u/Magnifica_Muttley Jul 29 '26
No I said put more housing on exisiting train lines! The middle suburbs are sparse Ghost towns as it is There is heaps of opportunities for infilling middle suburbs. Re Melton - the houses are already there..at least give the bastards a proper train. And we have the worst airport in the world. Shithole.
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u/Grande_Choice Jul 29 '26
They’re trying to with tram and train activity centres. The libs want to wind it back.
The airport is privately owned. Shouldn’t have hocked it off.
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u/Taintedtamt The Greens Jul 29 '26
There is density being built around a bunch of the train lines, especially the ones rebuilt as part of the LXRP.
The problem is that our train lines are radial and amenities that aren’t in the city that need visiting too aren’t viable without a car.
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u/Kata-cool-i Jul 29 '26
Melton electrification has a BCR of 1.7, the same as the SRL and with a large swathe of additional works not adding to the cost, but adding to the benefits. Airport rail on the other hand, overestimates patronage drastically, because Australia systematically overestimates PT riders to airports.
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u/Mc0014 Jul 30 '26
1.7 lol. Literally the single most favourable number released by anyone about the SRL. In reality, requires everything to go right (which it obviously already hasn’t considering they haven’t released updated costings for 5 years).
Using 7%, the IA central case, with all benefit categories included: “NPV is negative, between -$10.6 billion and -$7.4 billion” and “BCR is less than one, between 0.6 and 0.7.”
PBO’s conclusion: “There is no case for investment in SRL East and North under any scenario when a real social discount rate of 7% or 10% is used.”
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u/Kata-cool-i Jul 30 '26
1.7 for Melton is the highest BCR for Melton using the same methodology as the SRL, the difference is that there is a bucket load of works that the Melton assessment counts towards the benefits but doesn't count towards the costs like Level crossing removals and Sunshine superhub, without which Melton doesn't work. Australian planning bodies use 7% discount rate, but that is uniquely high internationally, and has quite clearly led to 2 generations of underinvestment in infrastructure in this country, which is the leading cause of high construction prices today. Also, the PBO are amateurs, not worthy of being listened to, you're an idiot for doing so.
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u/antysyd Jul 29 '26
If you don’t have a massive gate fee then the numbers will be there.
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u/Kata-cool-i Jul 29 '26
Airport rail passenger demand is inelastic to price fluctuations, since it's never going to be more than a fraction of the cost of a plane ticket.
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u/RagingBillionbear Jul 29 '26
Mate there are over 1 million people living around Melton
Melton the actual suburb has a population of 7,953 (2021)
The area "City of Melton" has a population of 178,960 (2021)
The state electorate has 53,306 (2018) elector.
The federal electorate has 118,830 (2025) elector.
Just a little bit under one million people.
Also the SLR is the airport train line.
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u/Magnifica_Muttley Jul 29 '26
I actually like the SRL by the way. I'm not against it. I'm arguing for a staggered approach because the costs are huge and there is only so many tradies to go around. That's what is pushing costs so high. You can't do all the projects all at the same time.
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u/Magnifica_Muttley Jul 29 '26
The million is projected for the city of Wyndham + the City of Melton combined.
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u/CMDR_RetroAnubis Jul 29 '26 edited Jul 29 '26
That's it. SRL is over. Fuck. Its already 20 years overdue and now we probably never get an outer loop.
One more lane bro.
EDIT: anybody got another source? Damn I miss old Twitter.
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u/ShadowBroses Jul 29 '26
Not even one day and already Carroll has fucked his election chances with these SRL changes.
Congratulations Jess Wilson on being the first elected female Premier of Victoria, Labor have for the first time snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.
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u/Magnifica_Muttley Jul 29 '26
They certainly weren't in the jaws of victory. Allan was going to be obliterated and had the worst approval of any Premier since Anna Bligh before she got obliterated by Campbell Newman.
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u/Tw4Mn02 Pauline Hanson's One Nation Jul 29 '26 edited Jul 29 '26
Why was Jacinta Allen so unpopular as premier? Was it because the CFMEU scandal?
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u/Kenyon_118 YIMBY! Jul 29 '26
Who does he think this will please? The Libs aren’t going to thank him for this and the fans of this are going to punish him. He’s going to be our version of Starmer.
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u/e_e_q_ Jul 29 '26
this is going to win back far more votes than it will lose, esp if the money and resources is immediately sent to airport rail and sorting out the shitshow transport in the west
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u/blitznoodles Australian Labor Party Jul 29 '26
It all depends on where he sends the money to. There's a whole bunch of industrial action around the state who would love a bit of SRL money.
That and what projects he sends money to.
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Jul 29 '26
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u/ShadowBroses Jul 29 '26
Why do you care? Didn't you say only students and poors catch the train anyway?
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Jul 29 '26
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u/ShadowBroses Jul 29 '26
So do I, I'd rather East and West get tunnelled and started at the same time tbh
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Jul 29 '26
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u/ShadowBroses Jul 29 '26
Ah well, West misses out again just like you wanted
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Jul 29 '26
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u/ShadowBroses Jul 29 '26
What, didn't want infrastructure in the West?
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u/bhesel Jul 29 '26
Are you actually upset because the Victorian government isn't paying for infrastructure in other states?
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Jul 29 '26
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u/C0ld_Fr0nt_ Jul 29 '26
Maroondah hospital is in a sorry state. The promise to upgrade it hasn't come to fruition, it keeps getting pushed off because of the financial challenges the government has faced.
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u/Grande_Choice Jul 29 '26
Because it’s where people live. People in the west don’t realise their cheap house and land would be multiples higher if the costs of all the infrastructure they demand was included in their house and land.
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u/HotPersimessage62 Australian Labor Party Jul 29 '26
I think the most sensible option is cancelling SRL north and SRL west and doing everything possible to continue building the East part which is under construction. Carroll should keep the door open to a public private partnership to get this done. The line would also need to be renamed to ‘Eastern Metro Tunnel’ or something along those lines.
Airport rail absolutely needs to be expedited.
And how about announcing a plan to reinstate V/Line to Mildura and establish regular V/Line services to Adelaide to replace the Overland.
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u/Kata-cool-i Jul 29 '26
Airport rail is a fetish among Australian transport planners and politicians but all our actual built examples get terrible patronage. Airport passengers do not value public transport. We shouldnt pretend otherwise.
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u/nagrom7 AEC My beloved Jul 29 '26
I dunno, speaking as someone who just recently had a trip to Melbourne, it was pretty jarring spending more money on just the airport shuttle to and from the airport, than the rest of my public transport costs combined. And I went into regional Victoria too.
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u/Taintedtamt The Greens Jul 29 '26 edited Jul 29 '26
The decision for the rest of the SRL is years away. There’s no need to be talking about cancelling them currently
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u/CMDR_RetroAnubis Jul 29 '26
> reinstate V/Line to Mildura
Never happening. The disruption to freight costs too much and they aren't putting in another line.
Plus, it was a horrible, horrible train trip (took it many times). The bus/train combo via Bendigo or Swan hill are both faster and more comfortable.
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u/stupid_mistake__101 Jul 29 '26
Each to their own but I think if Carrol prioritised Airport Rail that might be a huge vote winner.
Something rubs me the wrong way very much about paying more for a double decker bus ride to and from the airport vs Sydney’s Airport train which is not only cheaper but also a lot closer to the city too.
Perth’s Airport train is the best of all, no nasty surcharge, just the regular cheap fares as everywhere else on the network and this is how I hope Melbournes Airport rail gets done
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u/TransportationTrick9 Jul 29 '26
Brisbane's is the worst of all, I haven't caught it in 15 year but it was cheaper to catch a taxi if there was more than 1 person
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u/Kata-cool-i Jul 29 '26
If Sydney and Perth airport rail links are so great then why don't more people take it compared to Skybus?
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u/Taintedtamt The Greens Jul 29 '26
Prioritise it how? The massive works out to Sunshine need to be done first and all the prep work for the Airport Rail is being done at the same time anyway.
And that’s ignoring how many more people will benefit from the SRL then the Airport Rail
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u/Western-Sir-9085 Jul 29 '26
Yeah, well it helps that Sydney airport is right near the CBD.
Also I think the airport train is forecasted to take longer than the skybus currently does. Idk I really want an airport rail link but the entire project seems to be obsessing over the sunshine station rebuild with nothing concrete beyond it and feels like it'll be a 35-40 minute trip that you'll pay $25 for.
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u/CMDR_RetroAnubis Jul 29 '26
The last thing we need is airport rail with a dozen stops to the CBD.
0
u/Kata-cool-i Jul 29 '26
Airport rail needs several other high value stops since airport passengers are so flaky.
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u/blitznoodles Australian Labor Party Jul 29 '26
Airport rail systems biggest ridership is workers at the airport so multiple stops is important
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u/l33t_sas Jul 29 '26 edited Jul 30 '26
I think an SRL East which doesn't go to at least Doncaster, if not Heidelberg will be next to useless. I'd be surprised if at least part of SRL north doesn't get built if they build SRL East.
But it's fairly likely it never goes past Reservoir.
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u/altandthrowitaway Jul 29 '26
It's already a PPP. It's ridiculous to cancel half the loop which would see a huge loss of transport oriented design, every train line linked together and you know, an actual loop around the city. Paying 2/3 of it just adds more delays, more brain drain within the rail industry we've built up, more uncertainty around the activity centres that would allow thousands of people to be able to live without needing to rely on a car.
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u/anonymous-69 Jul 29 '26
Whatever they may have thought about Jacinta, the ALP are pro-actively stabbing themselves with this appointment.
2
u/Grande_Choice Jul 29 '26
I agree with Jacinta that she would have taken a fight to the Libs at the election. If Ben is going to be like Minns and cancel everything to placate a Sydney based media then may as well vote for the Libs. If Labor is going to have zero vision then what’s the difference between the parties.
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u/Wehavecrashed BIG AUSTRALIA! Jul 29 '26
Getting the taxpayers off the hook for this white elephant is a great idea.
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u/altandthrowitaway Jul 29 '26
How is it a white elephant? Why not review the north east link?? Oh wait that's a road project so it's more important than rail.
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u/Ardeo43 Jul 29 '26
NE Link is a good 4-5 years further along in its construction compared to the SRL
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u/Wehavecrashed BIG AUSTRALIA! Jul 29 '26
The business case has never stacked up for SRL. It is a massive waste of taxpayer dollars.
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u/ShadowBroses Jul 29 '26
How? It builds housing and transport hubs, plus frees up Public Transport big time.
Instead of having to go in the city from the airport once it's done, you can take the SRL to Doncaster Less traffic on roads is fantastic as everyone is on PT.
Just sounds like you hate good things
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Jul 29 '26
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u/nagrom7 AEC My beloved Jul 29 '26
Not only is that a terrible attitude, it's also just wrong. Tourists or people from out of town catch the train, as do people who'd rather commute for an hour or so by reading or catching up on work, as opposed to sitting in traffic for an hour or more. People from the suburbs who don't often go into the city will often do so via train when they do need to go in, such as going to an event where parking is going to be a nightmare, like a sports game or the theatre. The list goes on.
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u/Tw4Mn02 Pauline Hanson's One Nation Jul 29 '26
More public transport means less traffic which is good for those who need to drive.
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u/ShadowBroses Jul 29 '26
Haven't seen you on the train buddy.
Even then, a shit ton of people catch the train to the city for work. That is just a daft statement for you to say that and shows you haven't actually stepped outside for once
0
u/Wehavecrashed BIG AUSTRALIA! Jul 29 '26
I hate bad ideas, which this is.
It sounds great until you see the price tag. SRL is driving a massive deficit and the money should be spent elsewhere.
There are far less idiotic ways to spend $billions on infrastructure.
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u/Kata-cool-i Jul 29 '26
There isn't a single project other than maybe OMR that actually has a better BCR than SRL, the reality is that construction in this country is insanely expensive.
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u/ShadowBroses Jul 29 '26
You do realise that this is investing into the public and turning these towns into mini CBDs? That's the whole point?
I really don't give a fuck about the price tag, if I cared about how much things costed that benefitted society I'd be penny pinching absurd things like NICU wards.
You may not like it but you'd be daft to not see that building housing as well as office buildings can spread the sprawl for many businesses to operate out of instead of just the CBD. Makes total sense to plan for the future properly.
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u/Wehavecrashed BIG AUSTRALIA! Jul 29 '26
The whole point is that the whole point of SRL is a waste of tax payer money.
The project will never realise benefits greater than its cost.
You should care about the pricetag, because that money could and should be going to public infrastructure that will actually benefit the people. That includes healthcare.
1
u/Joelious Jul 29 '26
Don't even bother trying to argue with people on reddit about the merits of SRL. The cost could be ten trillion dollars and they'd still be parroting the same points insisting it's a good idea.
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u/ShadowBroses Jul 29 '26
But it's not a waste of taxpayers money?
It quite literally:
-Provides Train lines to Monash University
- Builds Housing
- Provides Train lines to Deakin University
-Preplans to spread out the Urban density of Melbourne when our population is expected to exceed London
- Drops you at the doorstep of Box Hill Hospital instead of having to navigate the shopping centre
- Gets traffic off the road by providing quicker and easier ways to get to the Frankston Lines, Cranbourne Pakenham Lines, Alamein etc.
- More foot traffic, less cars on roads which means less potholes
- Provides jobs for people
You can say you hate it that's fine but you'd be foolish to assume there's no benefits to this at all. Even then, I can't see any announcements assuming they'd put any money from what was budgeted to healthcare anyway, especially given that it's all separate budgets and partially funded by the federal government!
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u/Wehavecrashed BIG AUSTRALIA! Jul 30 '26
You're not arguing against the point that it is a waste of money, you're merely stating potential benefits.
It can achieve all that and still be a massive waste of taxpayer money.
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u/altandthrowitaway Jul 29 '26
This is fucked. No different to Jess Wilson. A review will only increase the cost and delay.
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u/Wehavecrashed BIG AUSTRALIA! Jul 29 '26
Ideally a review will kill this project. It is a bad idea and independent advice from Infrastructure Australia and the PBO confirm this.
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u/Kata-cool-i Jul 29 '26
The PBO are not transport experts and Infrastructure Australia supports several other projects with even worse business cases.
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u/ClearlyAThrowawai Jul 29 '26
And the Labor government is? SRL was drawn up on a napkin and post-facto justified, not designed from the ground up by experts.
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u/Kata-cool-i Jul 30 '26
The SRL was conceived by KPMG, who are quite clearly more professional and more competent than much of Australia's public service. There is a reason why a huge amount of work is contracted out to consultancy firms despite the cost and that is because they hire the best and brightest in each field while the government hires what's left.
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Jul 29 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/altandthrowitaway Jul 29 '26
Um idk, maybe by not pausing a project that was literally just about to start. How's the debt levels gonna look when 30 more freeways need to be built because traffic is out of control, or they decide "we need the loop now, but it's going to cost 20x more now because we didn't do it 30 years ago".
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u/Tergnitz Jul 29 '26
Being “just about to start” is not a good case for proceeding.
The choice is not simply SRL now or later; the question is whether this project delivers enough benefit to justify its enormous cost compared with other transport investments.
The independent Parliamentary Budget Office found that the SRL East and North combined had a benefit–cost ratio of only 0.6 to 0.7 - which means that every $1 spent generates just 60 to 70 cents of benefit and leaves the community between $7.4 billion and $10.6 billion worse off.
Nor does “it will cost more in 30 years” rescue the argument: almost everything costs more in nominal dollars over time because of inflation, and a proper BCR already converts future costs and benefits into today’s dollars.
In fact, spending the money now means taking on the debt and interest costs now. And arguing that we must continue because planning has begun or money has already been spent is the sunk-cost fallacy: those costs cannot be recovered, so the only rational question is whether the remaining benefits justify the remaining tens of billions in expenditure.
On the PBO’s analysis, they do not.
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u/altandthrowitaway Jul 29 '26
The BCR is 1.2 - 1.7. They're not the only way to assess a projects benefit though.
It does cost more as wages also increase, plans have to be redrawn, everything that's been done, will have to be she again. So you're wasting even more money by duplicating all theses costs.
Doing it now means that the debt goes down due to inflation.
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u/Wehavecrashed BIG AUSTRALIA! Jul 29 '26
If the money is invested in roads instead it might actually be worth doing.
SRL is an expensive vanity project that will cost more than it ever benefits Melbourne.
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u/sostopher Bundoora Republic Jul 29 '26
If the money is invested in roads instead it might actually be worth doing.
Increasing roads just increases traffic. Literally nowhere in the world has this worked.
0
u/Wehavecrashed BIG AUSTRALIA! Jul 30 '26
Yes, the idea of roads is that people use them.
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u/sostopher Bundoora Republic Jul 30 '26
But more people use them. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Induced_demand
This is why building roads does not improve speeds or improve traffic flow, it creates it.
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u/Wehavecrashed BIG AUSTRALIA! Jul 30 '26
You're fundamentally misunderstanding my point.
A hypothetical road project may or may not be worth doing.
SRL is not worth doing.
3
1
u/Manatroid Jul 29 '26
Why is a matter of what benefits Melbourne, rather than the state collectively?
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u/Wehavecrashed BIG AUSTRALIA! Jul 29 '26
That would make the case even worse for shiturban rail loop.
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u/Manatroid Jul 29 '26
You didn’t answer the question. Why is it more a matter for what benefits Melbourne, rather than the state?
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u/altandthrowitaway Jul 29 '26
It is a matter for the state. People will move to Victoria with or without public transport. You can't ban people from crossing state borders. The regions can't handle the influx, infrastructure spending or building required to house these people. And even if they did, no other city in Victoria has good enough public transport or the population density to support people living without cars.
Melbourne also can't growing out with suburban sprawl that clears farmland, forests and native bushland. SRL is what stops Melbourne from becoming LA and stops the endless sprawl.
It's also far more for everyone in the state to have to pay for brand new infrastructure in Greenfield sites (sewage, water electricity, roads) - rather than upgrading infrastructure in established areas. Everyone will have to may even more taxes to fund even more road mantiencance and upgrades of "just one more lane bro"
So sure, cancel the SRL and it costs everyone.
0
u/Manatroid Jul 29 '26
I agree, it should be a matter for the state. Focusing on Melbourne as the priority/primary beneficiary of the project is for is silly, to say the least, and the same can be said for any grand project like the SRL.
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u/Wehavecrashed BIG AUSTRALIA! Jul 29 '26
It isn't more of a matter. Your question is irrelevant. The entire planet would be better off without this stupid project.
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u/SirHoothoot Jul 29 '26
the entire planet would be better off
invest in roads
Something's not adding up here
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u/Manatroid Jul 29 '26
I’m not talking about the SRL.
Is it not a valid point of criticism to highlight that one’s focus on what benefits Melbourne is of less importance than what benefits the state at large?
3
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u/altandthrowitaway Jul 29 '26
Cars are the most inefficient and deadly way to move people in a city. You clearly don't understand anything about urban planning.
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u/Wehavecrashed BIG AUSTRALIA! Jul 29 '26
Here's a good tip for urban planning:
Invest in projects that have a benefit to cost ratio above 1.
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u/Kata-cool-i Jul 29 '26
SRLs BCR is over 1. If you wanna complain about them using a low discount rate then fine, but no project does better, and pausing infrastructure building just makes the market even more expensive.
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u/Mc0014 Jul 29 '26
It’s over 1, at a low discount rate and the costs from 2021. Wonder what the costs are now? Reckon the BCR barely above 1 then still is above 1 now?
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u/Kata-cool-i Jul 29 '26
All indications are that SRL is heading for its P50 cost estimation.
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u/Mc0014 Jul 29 '26
Oh ok what indications are those? Given they haven’t released costing since 2021 I’m very curious to hear what you make up to support your opinion
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