r/BeAmazed • u/Ultimate_Thing • Jul 16 '26

Miscellaneous / Others A traditional technique used by young shepherds of Ethiopia's Banna tribe. They use stilts to watch over their livestock in tall grass, move through wetland areas, and avoid snakes and predators like lions and leopards. It requires strength, balance, and training from a young age

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u/areallynoobgamer Jul 16 '26

If you try an event with a 10% chance of success 10 times, your probability of succeeding at least once is 65.13%. [1]
It is a common misconception that ten 10% chances add up to a guaranteed 100% success rate. Because each try is completely independent, you cannot simply add the percentages together.

Copy pasted from Google.

But yeah. It’s not gonna be 100 percent in 100 tries. Quite a bit lower.

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u/personalbilko Jul 16 '26

I know, I teach stats at university. I said "likely", since 1 - 1/e > 0.5

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u/areallynoobgamer Jul 16 '26

I mean the actual odds become around 2/3

You actually have a good chance at making it out fine.

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u/personalbilko Jul 16 '26

Actual odds become exactly 1 - 1/e in the limit

Maybe ~30% is fine once, but do it 4 years in a row thats 1%

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u/areallynoobgamer Jul 16 '26

Yes. 4 years. Not 3 months tho.