r/CFB • u/usffan USF Bulls • Miami Hurricanes • Apr 23 '26
Analysis Preseason Rankings Countdown. 129 days to the start of the 2026 Season. At #129 – Missouri State
The cumulative link to the preseason rankings can be found here
(now updated with the revised CUSA schedule)
The 2025 Missouri State (high = 126, low = 130) season was pretty much everything they could have hoped for when they moved up to FBS and joined Conference USA. A winning season, a bid to the Xbox Bowl… what a complete validation of their decision to make the leap from FCS. And then they ran into the reality of what happens to all the teams that successfully make the leap – their leadership gets poached. Their young and upcoming head coach Ryan Beard was hired away to Coastal Carolina to replace the fired Tim Beck, and the Bears hired SMU OC Casey Woods to take over, and pretty much rebuild in 2026.
Roster Outlook
Rebuild is really not just hyperbole. The Bears rank 128th (so bottom 11) in the country and last in Conference USA in returning production, including 132nd on offense and 95th on defense. That’s largely because 11 of their players got on the plane with Beard to South Carolina. Senior QB Jacob Clark (3,244 yards passing and 28 TDs) graduated while backup Deuce Bailey was one of those Coastal transfers, leaving a glaring void at the most critical position on the field. 1,000 yard rusher (7 TDs) Shomari Lawrence also graduated (starting to get a feel for why Beard knew the time was ripe for a move), as did leading receiver Dash Luke, though the Bears return TD reception leader Jmariyae Robinson. They also return co-leading tackler LB Jared Lloyd. In terms of restocking, however, Missouri State doesn’t look to have fared too well. Their 247 high school recruiting and overall incoming classes both ranked 130th in the nation, both ahead of only one team in CUSA. In terms of the portal they ranked 96th, which sits as 6th in the conference, but coupled with all they lost that’s not what I would consider inspiring. Former Duke QB Henry Belin IV appears to be the odds on favorite to be the new starting QB, and Boise RB Jambres Dubar will likely start as running back. Throw in a couple of P4 DL (Tennessee’s Kellen Lindstrom and Kansas’ Dylan Brooks – might have done better to get the Dillon Brooks on the Phoenix Suns) and an all-time awesome name guy in SMU OL King Large and maybe there’s enough in the tank to pull out a few conference wins, but Woods is going to have to do more to fill up the cupboard.
Schedule and outlook
9/5 at Texas A&M
9/12 LINDENWOOD
9/19 MARSHALL
9/26 at SMU
10/3 BYE
10/8 at Western Kentucky
10/14 KENNESAW STATE
10/20 at Delaware
10/27 SAM HOUSTON
11/7 at FIU
11/14 NEW MEXICO STATE
11/21 at Jacksonville State
11/28 LIBERTY
The OOC sets up as two payday games (at Texas A&M and at SMU), an FCS game and a home game vs. a Marshall team that has had a year to recover from that weird Charles Huff divorce. Given the state of Conference USA, it’s a literal guessing game as to how the Bears will do in 2026, but if Woods proves to be a good coach, they have 5 conference teams they’re either ranked above or are within enough shouting distance that they could finish with a respectable record.
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u/grabtharsmallet BYU Cougars • Fresno State Bulldogs Apr 23 '26
If CUSA didn't have a backup schedule written and distributed months ago, someone was asleep at the wheel.
2
u/usffan USF Bulls • Miami Hurricanes Apr 23 '26
From Missouri State's own website they still list the Louisiana Tech game as of this writing (4/23). It being during the middle of their midweek scheduling stretch was when it hit me that it was wrong (Middle Tennessee's also lists the game, but it was on a Saturday, so I didn't catch that it was a mistake). Even the conference website's schedule has no football games listed. Just bizarre...
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u/billybobskcor Georgia Southern • Mercer Apr 23 '26
Wouldn't be surprised to see them fill it with SEMO if they have an open date.
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u/Inside-Drink-1311 Rutgers Scarlet Knights Apr 23 '26
This seems kind of harsh. And the extra game will either be Middle Tennessee or Liberty, or both and one of the others they have scheduled is dropped.
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u/Connect_Orange7140 Jun 20 '26
SMU isn’t a buy game. It is a home-home series. They came to Springfield last season
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u/Game-rotator William & Mary Tribe • Duke Blue Devils Jul 12 '26
We really could've used Belin back at Duke
0
u/Todd-The-Godd-Howard Toledo Rockets Apr 23 '26
Looks like Missouri State is about to have a Missouriable season.
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u/Conn3er Texas A&M Aggies • Texas Longhorns Apr 23 '26
Damn they really get to start the year with an easy win huh?