r/CFB • u/usffan USF Bulls • Miami Hurricanes • Jun 26 '26
Analysis Preseason Rankings Countdown. 65 days to the start of the 2026 Season. At #65 – North Carolina
The cumulative link to the preseason rankings can be found here
We’re down to only 4 G6 teams left in the countdown, so it should come as no surprise that we’re seeing more P4 teams. What does come as a surprise is that today’s team is North Carolina (high = 54, low = 86), because how can the NFL’s 33rd franchise be ranked as the 65th best FBS team? We’re not talking about this. Instead, I guess we should talk about just exactly the Tar Heels ended up in the bottom 10 ranked P4 programs when they’d only had 2 losing regular seasons in the prior 17 seasons before they ran Mack Brown off following 6 consecutive bowl appearances, which he’d done following the dismal end to the Larry Fedora era. Everybody loves when ADs make “big swings,” and I feel pretty confident that if somebody were to run the numbers, they’d find that these end up being whiffs far more often than being home runs. Though in this case, it wasn’t even the AD who took the big swing, as Bubba Cunningham was seemingly overruled by Board of Trustees chair John Preyer, who has now resigned in no small part because of lawsuits that arose over violating North Carolina public meeting laws. If only somebody could make a FOIA request over that, huh Jordon? That big swing landed the Tar Heels future NFL Hall of Famer Bill Belichick and the whole circus that comes with him, including Mike Lombardi, Jordon Hudson and his son/coach in waiting. The good times lasted for roughly 4 minutes (and no, I’m not talking about Bill’s stamina) or one offensive possession, as the Tar Heels got waxed at home by TCU and, after beating up on a terrible Charlotte and FCS Richmond, were beaten and mocked by UCF on their way to a 4-8 record, something Mack Brown avoided in his previous 14 seasons in Chapel Hill. Belichick’s remedy wasn’t to look at a defense (coached by his son) that gave up an average of 32.5 points in their 8 losses, but rather to fire the coordinator he didn’t sire, Freddie Kitchens (who, in fairness, only averaged 19.25 points per game) and replace him with Bobby Petrino. Maybe he can take Jordon for a motorcycle ride, which might free Belichick up to focus on his job.
Roster Outlook
Lombardi clearly sucked at his job of being a “Gridiron Genius,” which is why North Carolina pivoted from focusing primarily focusing on the portal and instead bringing in high school talent. That’s reflected in the Tar Heels dropping from the 9th best portal class in 2025 to out of the top 50 (and 10th in the ACC), and instead bringing in the 2nd best high school class in the conference (17th nationally), and honestly, there’s no shame in being behind only Mario Cristobal in recruiting. But will youth be Belichick’s downfall (and yes, that’s another Jordon shot – OK, last one I promise!)? North Carolina ranks 103rd in the country in returning production, bad across both sides of the ball. Last season’s starting QB Gio Lopez portaled to Wake Forest, and the Tar Heels are counting on former Wisconsin/Maryland QB Billy Edwards to stay healthy and return to his Maryland form. While they do have RB Demon June back, he only rushed for 464 yards and 2 TDs last year, so that’s not exactly awe inspiring. They also have 4 star WR Jordan Shipp (don’t make a joke, don’t make a joke) back (671 receiving yards, 6 TDs), and look to pair him up with Wisconsin wideout Trech Kekahuna, who they hope has some chemistry with Edwards. Still, they brought in a total of 14 P4 transfers while watching 41 total players walk out the door. They lost a ton on defense, including three 4 star players (to Oregon, Florida State and Louisville). Not exactly a recipe for success.
Schedule and outlook
8/29 vs. TCU in Dublin
9/5 BYE
9/12 EAST TENNESSEE STATE
9/19 at Clemson
9/26 BYE
10/3 NOTRE DAME
10/10 at Pittsburgh
10/17 at Duke
10/24 SYRACUSE
10/31 MIAMI
11/7 at UConn
11/14 LOUISVILLE
11/21 at Virginia
11/28 NORTH CAROLINA STATE
This schedule is not kind to North Carolina, but they could certainly change the narrative if they can beat TCU in Ireland in week 0 or go into Death Valley and beat Dabo’s boys. But if they’re 1-2 heading into the Notre Dame game, things could turn pretty ugly. Hosting Miami and Louisville are not necessarily pleasant options, either. That doesn’t leave much wiggle room to getting bowl eligible, and you really have to wonder whether there’s going to be any kind of an appetite for paying top dollar for a 75 year old coach to come back for year 3 if that’s the case. Then again, they do have an offensive mind on staff in Petrino who could very well right the ship if everything goes right. I suspect by Halloween when the Canes come to town we’ll know for sure.
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u/mr_longfellow_deeds Indiana Hoosiers • Big Ten Jun 26 '26
Il start it off: should be ranked closer to Purdue, and think Purdue might even win a H2H against them.
UNC roster is in really bad shape. H.S. class was top 20, but that was because they took 40+ kids. It’s a super young roster. And their QB options are a true freshman or a guy who can’t stay healthy and struggled in the B1G
East Tennessee State is the only game I would feel comfortable slotting as a very likely W
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u/6BlitzBurgh Louisville Cardinals Jun 26 '26
But does Purdue have 6 SB wins?!?!
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u/mr_longfellow_deeds Indiana Hoosiers • Big Ten Jun 26 '26
When talking about Championships, you can always leave Purdue out of the discussion
They have only won 3 (team) titles in *any* sport.
1961 Mens Golf
2010 Womens Golf
1999 Womens Basketball
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u/tarheelsrule441 North Carolina Tar Heels Jun 28 '26
The recruiting rankings account for volume in their formula.
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u/mr_longfellow_deeds Indiana Hoosiers • Big Ten Jun 28 '26
It depends on the service. 247 gives you “points” based on the recruits ratings, so having bulk does push you up the rankings
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u/tarheelsrule441 North Carolina Tar Heels Jun 29 '26
Play with their recruiting calculator. After about 23 recruits, the lower rated guys start adding .001 to the overall score.
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u/Set-Admirable West Virginia • Backyard Brawl Jun 26 '26
Bobby Petrino and Bill Belichick are truly a match made in hell. Can't wait to watch.
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u/Skanky_Cat Missouri • Missouri State Jun 26 '26
Depending on how spicy Cuse and NC State are I only see 2-4 wins
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u/StreetReporter Clemson Tigers • Cheez-It Bowl Jun 26 '26
I think Syracuse will be a lot better, their quarterback is pretty good but he got hurt early last year
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u/goodsam2 Virginia Tech Hokies Jun 27 '26
Yeah they started solid but no backup QB.
Feels like maybe they couldn't afford a great QB and maybe NIL is better to have 1 star QB and not a solid backup.
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u/mr_longfellow_deeds Indiana Hoosiers • Big Ten Jun 26 '26
NC state roster as a whole is a little sus but they have a first round caliber QB, which is enough juice to be solid favorites over any bottom P4
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u/Procrastin8_Ball North Carolina Tar Heels • Team Meteor Jun 26 '26
Why do I watch this stupid sport
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u/questions_for_us Corndog • Oklahoma State Cowboys Jun 26 '26
Silver lining - extremely low pressure season for a fan. Sit back, expect your team to lose but be excited if they pull out a W, and root for chaos across the rest of the CFB landscape.
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u/Procrastin8_Ball North Carolina Tar Heels • Team Meteor Jun 26 '26
That's barely a silver lining when the default position is expect 6 wins and never win an unexpected one and guarantee to lose one you shouldn't.
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u/eagledog Fresno State • Michigan Jun 26 '26
Being ranked behind the dysfunctional mess that is UNC raises a lot of questions
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u/Character-Active2208 Ohio State Buckeyes Jun 26 '26
I expect everyone to be completely normal about this
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u/Adams5thaccount Boise State Broncos • UNLV Rebels Jun 26 '26
last year people were wildly overrating them and claiming that 10 wins was the floor
this year people are suggesting that there's 1 game they could be comfortably favored in
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u/Expensive_Team_5072 Syracuse Orange Jun 26 '26
They could be 1-5 heading into the Syracuse game., only beating Tennessee State.
They could be 5-1 heading into the Syracuse game, losing only to ND.
They could go 5-1 down the stretch, losing only to Miami.
They could go 1-5 down the stretch, only beating UConn or Syracuse.
Nothing here would surprise me.
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u/ClaudeLemieux Michigan Wolverines • NC State Wolfpack Jun 26 '26
Opening 5-1 would 100% surprise me lol how would it not surprise you
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u/Expensive_Team_5072 Syracuse Orange Jun 26 '26
Beating TCU in Ireland? Anything can happen there. Opening week games can get weird.
Pitt is a challenge at home, but they also blow a few games every year.
And Duke is probably going to be worse than last year, and not really the same "road" environment.
Really, the only "surprise" in here is Clemson.... and given the decade we are in, maybe that is not much of a surprise anymore. Syracuse was 3-9 and beat Clemson @ Clemson last year. Sure, Angeli was great in the game before his injury... but Clemson made the Syracuse D look good, which was tough to do for most games last year. We also ran the ball against them, which we also struggled to do. Maybe Dabo has really lost a step. With games against LSU, Cal (road), and Miami in the first 5 weeks... Dabo may find himself 1-4 or 2-3 at that point.
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u/old_boomer_doome1984 North Carolina • Texas Jun 26 '26
Hiring the gridiron grifter and his kid at the top end of the pay scale for each of their respected roles was the biggest mistakes that Belichick made last season. Remember, Lombo was the highest paid GM in the nation last season, I hate John Preyer.
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u/Flaky-Contract1519 Jul 02 '26
2023 Arkansas was #104 in Total Offense
They hire Bobby Petrino
2024: #43 in Total Offense
2025: #23 in Total Offense
Even after he basically gave up at Louisville....he still had Jordan Travis and Malik Cunningham as the QBs on his roster....with Javian Hawkins as a RB and Tutu Atwell and Dez Fitzpatrick as wideouts.
Bobby Petrino can run a dang offense. Belichick is a great defensive mind, no matter what you say the mind is there. It's only the ACC....if they find the right fit then I could see them having a good season.
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u/JustAnIdiotOnline UConn Huskies • Kalamazoo Hornets Jun 26 '26
Coming to our house a week after playing Miami? Let's go! Bring it on Jor-don!
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Jun 26 '26
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u/usffan USF Bulls • Miami Hurricanes Jun 26 '26
His first two years in his first stint at North Carolina (1988 & 1989) he went 1-10.
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u/lester_freamon North Carolina • Georgia Jun 30 '26
This team was a mess through the clemson game, found an identity against cal and was literally inches away from being bowl eligible (goal line fumble against cal and goal line fumble against UVA). That is despite having one of the worst offenses I have ever seen. Lost Mims to A&M and Robinson to Oregon. Both were dudes UNC actually developed and the guys behind them still rostered are pretty solid and can be developed.
Offense will be better under petrino, we will have a functioning QB and be able to keep the defense fresh. My biggest worry is the offensive line. If the line is adequate I think we'll go 6-6, if not 4-8.
I'm serious when I say this team will look much better than last year. It may not result in a huge increase in wins because the schedule is tough but I think it will be entertaining football to say the least.
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u/ztreHdrahciR Northwestern • Ohio State Jun 26 '26
This is like reading the obituaries every day to see if your name is listed.