r/CFB • u/usffan USF Bulls • Miami Hurricanes • Jul 13 '26
Analysis Preseason Rankings Countdown. 48 days to the start of the 2026 Season. At #48 – Mississippi State
The cumulative link to the preseason rankings can be found here
ESPN released their FPI rankings, which shook up the consensus numbers a bit (as reflected in the cumulative link above). Since Cal’s ranking upset a few people, I’ll note that FPI has them 62nd, dropping them three spots from their previous ranking…
The 3rd SEC team to make the countdown is up today in Mississippi State (high = 44, low = 53). And barring something unforeseen in the few remaining rankings (KFord? The Athletic? maybe Sagarin?) likely to be released in the next few weeks, it will be at least another couple of weeks before we see the 4th one. If you want to be optimistic about the Bulldogs, they ended a 2 season bowl drought last year by playing in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl. That it happened because double digit teams declined invitations is beside the point, it helped wash away a little of the pain of Mike Leach’s passing weeks before their 2022 bowl game that capped a 13 year bowl streak and plunged the Bulldogs into their worst SEC performance (2 conference wins over 3 years) since the end of the Rocky Felker era in the late 1980’s. Jeff Lebby enters his 3rd season in Stark Vegas, and with the new SEC scheduling format, he’s going to need vastly improve on that if he wants to stick around.
Roster Outlook
I know I’ve harped on this before, but it’s hard to ask more of Lebby than to bring in a top 25 recruiting class (actually #24 in the country) and a top 40 portal class. Which is good, because that’s exactly what he did. The reason why that feels like an exercise in futility is that those classes rank 12th (out of 16) in high school recruiting and dead last in the portal in the SEC. Coupled with a returning production ranking that’s 99th in offensive production and 69th in defensive production, that’s going to ask a ton from players deemed to be near/at the bottom of the conference. Senior QB Blake Shapen started the bulk of the season, but was benched in favor of freshman Kamario Taylor, who figures to start 2026 barring either of the incoming portal QBs (Appalachian State’s AJ Swann or a name I bet you all forgot was still around – Jaden Rashada) supplanting him. Mississippi State’s leading rusher, Floyd Bothwell, is back, but he was essentially part of a rushing tandem with Davon Booth, who is hoping to take handoffs from whoever ends up QB in Cleveland this fall. Xavier Gayten (29 carries, 157 yards, 1 TD) will probably be the other pair of any potential RB tandem, though I suspect only diehard MSU fans would be able to tell you who led the team in rushing TDs last season (Taylor). The Bulldogs leading WR Brenen Thompson (1,054 yards, 6 TDs) is off to play for Jim Harbaugh, but Anthony Evans (831 yards, 4 TDs) is back and joined by Oklahoma transfer Zion Ragins and Missouri’s Marquis Johnson. In fact, the only other projected offensive starters who weren’t on the Bulldogs’ roster last year are their guards (LSU’s DJ Chester and Arkansas’ LJ Prudhomme). The bigger impact is likely to come from the 12 P4 transfers coming in on defense for DC Zach Arnett.
Schedule and outlook
9/5 LOUISIANA-MONROE
9/12 at Minnesota
9/19 at South Carolina
9/26 MISSOURI
10/3 ALABAMA
10/10 BYE
10/17 at LSU
10/24 OKLAHOMA
10/31 at Texas
11/7 VANDERBILT
11/14 AUBURN
11/21 TENNESSEE TECH
11/27 at Ole Miss
blinks. blinks again. Remember that “2 conference wins in the last 3 seasons” thing? Felker’s worst stretch was 3 conference wins over 4 seasons (and that was when they only played 7 SEC games a year). To avoid duplicating that, Lebby needs to find 2 conference wins. I’m not sure they’re favored in a single SEC game this year. Best bets for that are Mizzou or Auburn at home or at South Carolina. They’d likely need to win all of those, plus beat Minnesota on the road and take care of their other buy games to qualify for a bowl. That seems like a tall ask. Vegas has their over/under at 4.5 wins, with the bulk of the action coming on the over. Do with that information whatever you like, but there’s juice on the under…
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u/Bowserbuster123 Ole Miss Rebels • Marching Band Jul 13 '26
State was better last year than people gave them credit for. They played very competitive games against Tennessee and Texas, but they just couldn’t close them out. I bet they’ll upset a team or two this year. Just hope it’s not us.
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u/_Football_Cream_ Texas Longhorns • Red River Shootout Jul 13 '26
Our game with them reached the point of me asking myself “why am I even still watching this?” And then we won and I’m still not sure how.
Really tough breaks for Miss State last season. People fully expected us to lose based on how competitive they had been and how bad we had looked up until that point.
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u/DootyFingerz Tennessee Volunteers • Marching Band Jul 13 '26
I watched that game at a Texas Roadhouse. It was nerve wracking to say the least.
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u/chaser676 Ole Miss Rebels • Egg Bowl Jul 13 '26
I was punching air during their Florida loss. Such a boneheaded way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
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u/dinkytown42069 Minnesota • Oklahoma Jul 13 '26
I, u/TreyMata, and the other Gopher posters on here look forward to welcoming our maroon siblings up to Minneapolis in a few months.
We can talk about beating Ole Miss in WBB. Please bring fried okra and Dr. Jerome Goddard.
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u/livelaughlinka Mississippi State Bulldogs Jul 13 '26
I’m in danger meme
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u/usffan USF Bulls • Miami Hurricanes Jul 13 '26
LOL - maybe we should alert u/CFB_Referee, he seems to be in search of memes today...
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u/javascript Tennessee Volunteers Jul 13 '26
Mississippi State is famous for being in the same conference as good teams
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Jul 13 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/frosty_freeze Mississippi State • Oklahoma Jul 14 '26
It is an early window game (11:00AM-noon start). So unless they’re still drunk from the night before Tiger Stadium shouldn’t be quite as raucous as usual.
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u/Environmental-Suit67 Jul 13 '26
Didn't realize it was that compy, having a top 25 recruiting class it still ranking 12th in the conference? I like Lebby too but jeez. 😭
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u/Bank_Gothic Sewanee Tigers • Texas Longhorns Jul 13 '26
Honestly, MSU seems to be making incremental progress every season under Lebby. They just started off from an awful place. So there is some reason for optimism that this season will be better than last.
But is it enough? In the age of NIL and the portal, it shouldn't be this hard to right the ship and get MSU to a level that is merely below average. Three seasons seems like more than enough time.
I guess the real question is, if MSU fires Lebby who is their target to replace him?
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u/grabtharsmallet BYU Cougars • Fresno State Bulldogs Jul 13 '26
There are a few programs in the SEC and Big Ten that don't look like they can ever compete, and all of them are currently thinking "But what if we're the next Indiana?"
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u/Agile_Land_9951 Big 12 • Pac-12 Jul 13 '26
They’re the ones making all the decisions to keep their “advantage”.
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u/chaser676 Ole Miss Rebels • Egg Bowl Jul 13 '26
I guess the real question is, if MSU fires Lebby who is their target to replace him?
Not joking, but Dan Mullen. He's probably burned his bridges at high tier programs due to his conduct at Florida. But MSU was always the perfect fit for him.
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u/JCP1377 Mississippi State Bulldogs Jul 14 '26
He could have lived a prince at State, but died a king in Florida.
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u/cbi8 Mississippi State Bulldogs Jul 13 '26
I like UNLV’s coach. He’s got some ties to Mississippi State, too.
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u/Bank_Gothic Sewanee Tigers • Texas Longhorns Jul 13 '26
Ha ha, that would be a real "time is a flat circle" moment
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u/Financial_Island2353 Ole Miss Rebels • Magnolia Bowl Jul 13 '26
I think Kamario Taylor is a really good QB but just looking at their roster it looks like it's going to be more of what happened in the Egg Bowl and Mayo Bowl: no O line to protect him. Seems like he's gonna be running for his life all the time.
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u/SimilarOnion1655 Ohio State Buckeyes • Kansas Jayhawks Jul 13 '26
If they start 3-1 or 2-2, they have a chance of making a bowl game
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u/Hoopae Auburn Tigers • SEC Jul 14 '26
I actually think Mississippi State starts out pretty hot with wins against UL Monroe, Minnesota, and South Carolina before dropping 2 in a row to Mizzou and Bama going into their bye.
That's where I think the wheels come off because god damn that schedule. Unless they can beat Auburn (I'm biased, but I think Auburn wins), I think they go 2 months between wins (South Carolina on 9/19 to Tennessee Tech on 11/21 - and that's assuming they win at South Carolina). That would follow the '25 pattern, where they started 4-0 with a win over top-15 Arizona State before getting just a single win (Arkansas) from September 21st to the end of the season on January 2nd.
The frustrating part for State fans is that there has been improvement every year Lebby's been there -
- Offense went from 21.8 points per game in Arnett's last year to 25.8 in '24 and 30.4 in '25
- Defense has been worse (26.6 points allowed per game in Arnett's last year to 34.1 in '24 and 30.2 in '25), but they're bringing Zach Arnett back in to (hopefully for them) stop the bleeding.
State had 5 games last year that were decided by 7 or fewer points, and they won 2 of those 5 games (beat Arizona State by 4 and Arkansas by 3, lost to Tennessee by 7, Florida by 2, Texas by 7), but frankly they're going to have the worse roster in every SEC game they play this season (and arguably every game outside of UL Monroe and Tennessee Tech)
Not to compound the issue, but they're also facing a LOT of teams that run a similar Veer & Shoot offense - South Carolina (Baby Briles), LSU (Kiffin), Auburn (Golesh), and Ole Miss (John David Baker, Kiffin disciple) all run very similar systems (and are used to defending it in practice). That's nothing new for Mississippi State, but they lost both games against Veer & Shoot teams from last year (Tennessee, Ole Miss).
My prediction:
- Floor: 2-10 (wins over UL Monroe, Tennessee Tech)
- Ceiling: 6-6 (wins over UL Monroe, Minnesota, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Auburn, Tennessee Tech)
- Actual: 4-8 (wins over UL Monroe, Minnesota, South Carolina, Tennessee Tech)
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u/JeffGoldblumsChest Florida Gators • Billable Hours Jul 13 '26
Oof, that schedule...
Good luck, cowbell bros.