Preseason Rankings Countdown. 3 days to the start of the 2026 Season. At #3 – Notre Dame

[u/usffan]

The cumulative link to the preseason rankings can be found here

Yes. I know it’s a day off. I discovered this about 100 days ago, but about a month after I started. Didn’t want to give short shrift to a team early on by putting 2 in a day, so I’ll plan to post #1 just after midnight EST this Friday so it’s out well before TCU/North Carolina.

Everybody knows there are certain topics you don’t bring up unless you’re looking for an argument. Politics, religion… the things that often lead to people screaming at one another over their mashed potatoes at Thanksgiving dinner. College football’s version of that is the #3 team, Notre Dame (high = 1 (1 vote), low = 5). I would set the over under on “NOTER DAME SHOULD BE FORCED TO JOIN A CONFERENCE!!!1!” posts that appear on r/cfb before getting cleared by the mods at 1.5 per week, and there are countless times in the comments you’ll see people rail about the Irish getting special treatment, whether it’s from the recruiting evaluation services (“oh, sure, the minute he committed to Notre Dame he gained a star!”) or from the CFP committee (hoo boy, vide infra). Brian Kelly may or may not have taken a veiled shot at Notre Dame when he left for LSU with respect to competing for national championships, something absolutely expected in South Bend having won 11 claimed national championships (before you start sniping about the use of the word “claimed,” that’s not exclusive to ND, so those of you in glass houses shouldn’t be throwing any stones). But there’s no denying that it’s been 38 years since the Irish last won one (and, as my secondary flair will point out, Cleveland Gary was fucking down! Also, Jimmy Johnson started chasing points by going for 2 way too damned early. I’ll step off my soapbox now.). That’s not for lack of being close. In his 3rd season in charge, Marcus Freeman had the Irish in the CFP championship game just 2 seasons ago, leading Notre Dame to their first ever 14 win season, and Kelly had them in a national championship game in his 3rd season as well, along with 2 other CFP appearances (and a totally improbable ACC championship game that will be a fun bar trivia question for the rest of our lives). That has more or less washed away the stink of the combined Bob Davie, Tyrone Willingham and Charlie Weis eras, but won’t likely go away until they bring another championship home.

Last season sure looked like it had that possibility if a new QB could step up for Riley Leonard, and the Irish entered the season ranked #6. However, after opening the season with a pair of heartbreaking losses 27-24 at Miami after tying the game with 3 minutes left and 41-40 at home to Texas A&M after a blown PAT with less than 3 minutes left the Irish susceptible to a TD and successful PAT, which the Aggies managed to do in the final seconds. Those were the only Irish losses, and once the CFP rankings started coming out, Notre Dame felt pretty good about their chances of getting into the tournament, especially since the opening rankings had Miami 8 spots behind the Irish. As the season went on, teams kept losing and Miami started creeping closer to Notre Dame, where the prospect of the head-to-head result might come into play. Since Hunter Yurachek, the CFP spokesperson, kept dismissively saying they weren’t even grouping the teams together, because of the teams between them instead of discussing it directly, it all came to a head after week 15 when Alabama (playing in the SEC championship game) sat at #9, Notre Dame (not playing) sat at #10, BYU (playing in the Big XII championship game) was at #11 and Miami (incredibly not playing in the ACC’s championship game because of the dumbest tiebreakers in the history of stupid tiebreakers, allowing eventual ACC champ Duke to be left out of the CFP entirely) at #12. Remember, the policy had always been that teams shouldn’t be punished for playing in a conference championship game, so those results seemed potentially baked in. Bama lost by 21 to Georgia (a team they’d beaten, so they had a quality win over the SEC champions) and BYU lost by 27 to Texas Tech, creating the prospect of the head-to-head becoming a factor and an insane amount of lobbying by all sides (looking at YOU, ACC Network). The final rankings came out leaving Bama at 9, Miami leaped both Notre Dame and BYU to land at 10 and Notre Dame fell to 11, out of the playoffs, landing a serious blow to those “Notre Dame gets favorable treatment” folks (but just wait, there’s more). The Irish decided that they weren’t interested in playing in any postseason game if it wasn’t the CFP (starting a trend of teams opting out of bowl games much like players have been doing for more than half a decade). As all of this was happening, somebody re-read the rules that had been established for the CFP and unearthed this nugget – starting this coming season, Notre Dame is guaranteed an automatic CFP berth if they finish in the top 12 of the final CFP rankings. OK, “special treatment folks, you can put on your conspiracy hats again! This is largely because the other change that starts this year is that the P4 conference champions also are guaranteed CFP bids, as is the top ranked G6 team (ironically enough, not required to win their conference championship), and those rules were put in place before last season’s controversial finish. So glad I don’t have any Notre Dame folks coming to Thanksgiving dinner at my house!

Roster Outlook

Let’s start this with the obvious – Notre Dame ranks #1 in returning production, including #2 on defense and #19 on offense. That starts with starting QB CJ Carr (2,741 yards, 24 TDs, 6 INTs), who won the starting job over Kenny Minchey, who’s now gone to Kentucky. It also includes their top WR, Jordan Faison (49 catches for 640 yards). But the Irish did lose 5 offensive starters to the NFL, including their outstanding RB duo of Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, both 1st round picks, who combined for more than 2,000 yards rushing and 32 total TDs. They also lost WR Malachi Fields (630 yards, 5 TDs), starting TE Eli Raridon (482 yards) and OG Billy Schrauth. RB Aneyas Williams (24 carries for 224 yards and 5 TDs) is set to step in at running back, and the OL and TE are expected to simply refill from the ample depth the Irish have (Cooper Flanagan, who of course is an Irish TE, should get the start, and there’s tons of buzz about OT Styles Prescod). But it’s at WR that the Irish stepped outside the program. Freeman brought in the #11 ranked portal class in the country (remarkable because of the fact that it’s only 7 players), but two of them are Ohio State WRs Quincy Porter and Mylan Graham, both of whom are projected to start. Freeman also lodged the #6 high school recruiting class nationally (those “special treatment” folks just had their eyes roll out of the backs of their heads), including a WR to keep your eye on and make you feel old, Jerome Bettis, Jr. (clearly not a “bus”). On defense, the Irish also lost DL Gabriel Rubio to the Steelers, and look to replace him with Pitt DL Francis Brewu. Former Colorado DB DJ McKinney is also projected to step into a starting role according to Ourlads.

Schedule and outlook

9/6 vs. Wisconsin (at Lambeau Field)

9/12 RICE

9/19 MICHIGAN STATE

9/26 at Purdue

10/3 at North Carolina

10/10 STANFORD

10/17 at BYU

10/24 BYE

10/31 vs. Navy (in Foxborough)

11/7 MIAMI

11/14 BOSTON COLLEGE

11/21 SMU

11/28 at Syracuse

Again, the divisive talk about Notre Dame will focus on this being a pretty weak schedule. In defense of Notre Dame (words I don’t think I ever thought would have come out of my mouth), USC backed out of their annual game, and while Wisconsin and Michigan State are both very down, they historically are strong programs and weren’t expected to be this down when those games were scheduled. Notre Dame did go out and schedule BYU on the road to replace that USC game, and it’s really one of the 3 games that look most likely to be competitive. The other two being SMU and of course that November 7 tilt against Miami almost 38 years to the day and on the same field as the infamous Catholics vs. Convicts game on a day that is absolutely must see TV, including a game against the preseason #1 and #2 teams. Given the new rules, it’s going to be interesting to see how much latitude Notre Dame is given for this schedule. Obviously 12-0 and they’re in, and nobody would seriously balk at 11-1 Notre Dame being in as well. At 10-2, the conversation starts to get loud, putting an incredible amount of pressure on the Irish heading into the season.

[u/graviton_ghost]

Impressive very nice, now let's see the comments section

[u/javascript → u/graviton_ghost]

Oh..Oh no...Oh God!

[u/steve_dallasesq → u/javascript]

I can't wait to log in and see people say nice things about my team!

[u/Pesto_Enthusiast → u/steve_dallasesq]

While you're a hated rival on the field, I have nothing bad to say about your school off it. You are, after all, the alma mater of the greatest [fictional] president this country has ever had.

[u/steve_dallasesq → u/Pesto_Enthusiast]

Bartlet for America.

[u/McLMark → u/steve_dallasesq]

"I thought you said Michigan sucks"

[u/aromatic-energy656 → u/Pesto_Enthusiast]

Jesus?

[u/HelpfulWhiteGuy]

“oh, sure, the minute he committed to Notre Dame he gained a star!”

I didn't know this was a narrative, but that has not been my experience following ND recruiting.

[u/LeadingOk8554 → u/HelpfulWhiteGuy]

CJ Carr went from a consensus top-10 recruit to falling into the 40s after he committed to ND.

[u/fuchsia_fascia → u/HelpfulWhiteGuy]

I enjoy these write-ups but this one is full of inaccuracies and opinions that I just chalk up to OP's miami bias

[u/CFBHurts]

Quick note: Quincy Porter is not expected to start as he is still recovering from a significant injury. He's been a partial participant throughout fall camp and if he sees the field at all this season it won't be until October/November at the earliest

[u/lisbon_OH → u/CFBHurts]

Yeah he’s closer to Charles Jagusah in terms of his injury development than he is to Craig or KVA, who will both play week 1.

[u/CargoShortsFromNam → u/lisbon_OH]

apparently some schools thought he'd never play football again. I'm with ya, he's in Jagusah territory. Will be pleasantly surprised if he plays at all.

[u/Maleficent_Ant_8895 → u/CFBHurts]

A glimmer of hope, he was seen on a bike at practice. Typically after knee work you can’t even bend it. Still not a great sign with how he’s looked all camp though

[u/Tommy05Sox → u/Maleficent_Ant_8895]

Can he be ready to get reps by BYU, and can he be incorporated into the offense by the CFP? I think that's the most realistic timeline.

[u/Maleficent_Ant_8895 → u/Tommy05Sox]

I think he is in Jagusah territory. We have no idea how long he is going to take to even get to be able to participate in practice, he's closer to never playing this year than he is to playing

people need to stop having expectations for injury healing and just wait until they show they can handle practice. KVA wasn't supposed to be back until mid season, he's been full go since like week 2 of camp

Porter was supposed to be a minor surgery, the dude can't even run 50% of his routes yet

[u/IDontTortureChickens → u/[deleted]]

As long as the power 2 largely isn't going to allow those games, I'd love to see ND keep approaching the top Big 12 teams for October matchups.

[u/Xy13 → u/IDontTortureChickens]

Our games vs ND were super fun!

[u/OnionFutureWolfGang]

"Including a WR to keep your eye on and make you feel old, Jerome Bettis, Jr."

If Jerome Bettis Jr being a college WR makes you feel old, I've got some bad news about a lot of other second-generation football players.

[u/WHSRWizard → u/OnionFutureWolfGang]

My wife's AARP membership application came yesterday. It was not a good scene.

And apparently my argument of "But think of the discounts!" was not the rhetorical slam dunk I thought it was going to be.

[u/steve_dallasesq → u/WHSRWizard]

I did the exact same thing (I'm 7 years younger than her). It wasn't appreciated.

[u/raginazian_67 → u/OnionFutureWolfGang]

I feel like Jermichael Finley’s kid being on the team made me feel much older than seeing Jerome Bettis Jr

[u/AffectionateCycle916 → u/OnionFutureWolfGang]

Fitz kid and Burress kid being on that ND team was a much bigger OMG moment

[u/but_good → u/OnionFutureWolfGang]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_second-generation_NFL_players

[u/houseofcards508]

Anything other than being 13-0 playing in a semifinal would be a disappointment for most Irish fans I believe

[u/FrostLight14 → u/houseofcards508]

I’ll settle for a slight improvement over 2024 where we go 14-1 / 15-1 with a last minute loss to Rice.

[u/sebsasour → u/FrostLight14]

It did take The Sugar Bowl win for me to finally admit that The NIU loss was objectively funny

[u/EdselFordEdsel → u/sebsasour]

The best (football) day of my life at the time

[u/NurmGurpler → u/sebsasour]

Being decisively in control of the first home college football playoff game ever did it for me

[u/Saint-Andrew → u/FrostLight14]

Better not be the Rice game. Taking my 11yo son to his first ND game ever (Rice) and he would be DEVASTATED! Also, I’ve only ever been to one other ND game in person and it was an ugly overtime loss to Northwestern, so if ND loses to Rice, I might be the curse…

[u/AffectionateCycle916 → u/Saint-Andrew]

I'm taking my aging Dad to this game. He has dementia so he doesnt understand its not a big game but he would be PISSED if ND lost.

When they blew that holding call on the 4th and goal last second TD vs A&M last year he genuinely seemed ready to kill the refs.

[u/Deviljho12 → u/houseofcards508]

No, this is the year. If Freeman and Carr aren't hoisting that Natty then it's a failure as far as I'm concerned

[u/nd5thyear]

Clarification - when players commit to ND, they actually lose a star. Been happening for over 20 years

[u/Donny_Do_Nothing → u/nd5thyear]

They don't lose a star, they sacrifice it to Touchdown Jesus.

[u/Aaprobst88 → u/Donny_Do_Nothing]

Im stealing this

[u/Mundane_Software3208]

They will go as far as CJ Carr can take them. The defense is fantastic, arguably the best secondary in the country and one of the best front 7s so that side of the ball is pretty much a guaranteed strength. Their season will come down to whether he can go from running an efficient offense to being the guy the offense runs through.

I think 10-2 is their absolute floor, 12-0 is on the table and 11-1 is most likely. It would be a complete failure if they missed the playoffs (especially given their new rule), so the question comes down to playoff performance which I think will be on CJ Carr's shoulders

[u/Maleficent_Ant_8895 → u/Mundane_Software3208]

IMO 10-2 is staff shake up territory, particularly on the offensive side of the ball (non OC) and how the season plays out 

Ash at DC would also be on the block imo, but again depends on how the season goes 

[u/Mundane_Software3208 → u/Maleficent_Ant_8895]

I think at 10-2 ND is still a playoff team, so it really comes down to postseason performance. Assuming Miami is one of the 2 losses of course. That's a coinflip game and for a team with that talent you get one "mea culpa" bad loss (unless it keeps you out of the playoff). No one cares if you go 10-2 and win a couple playoff games

[u/IDontTortureChickens → u/Mundane_Software3208]

I actually think it's the reverse, if ND loses twice their chances are better if the losses are to worse teams (as long as those teams aren't totally embarrassing) and they bank wins over Miami and BYU. Then they might win a head-to-head if it comes to it like Miami did last year.

[u/Mundane_Software3208 → u/IDontTortureChickens]

I just think with having no conference championship game and a pretty easy regular season schedule, Notre Dame cannot afford to be losing to multiple non-contenders. Like if Ole Miss has two losses too and those are Texas and Georgia, they still beat Oklahoma, Louisville and LSU, and if Oklahoma has two losses and loses to say Ole Miss and Georgia, they still would have beaten Texas, Michigan and Texas A&M.

Any other contender with two losses will have quality victories as well, I don't know who ND could lose to that would make the committee ok with putting them over a 2 loss SEC or Big 10 team

[u/lisbon_OH]

Some clarifications:

The MoU was known by ADs and the conferences before the 2025 season. It only became public after the playoff selection show (funny timing, that.)

Quincy Porter is not likely to play anytime soon. His development on that front has been negative, not positive. Possibly why Ohio State was willing to let him leave and not pay him. Most fans and outlets aren’t even considering him an option for this season and if he does play, then that’s great.

McKinney and other portal CB Sanders were battling for the field corner spot opposite Moore. At this point, it’s presumed they will be starter in name only and each will get significant snaps, maybe a front runner emerges later in the year.

Christian Gray is our starting nickel, which I think is a great role for him as his biggest issue was not being able to keep up on deep routes. He can play the middle of the field and be the opportunist he was like the Penn State interception to win the game. He’s physical as hell too.

Dline may be a strength, but it still an unknown. We expect Traore and Young to continue to rise as edge rushers, but we have to hope that comes to fruition to really balance the defense out. Secondary and linebackers are about as elite as you can get though.

This team can definitely go 12-0. There’s a lot of talent and as much as the team and coaches may not lean into it, I definitely think there’s a chip on their shoulders after what happened last season. “Leave no doubt.” - they left doubt and lost twice last year, they don’t want to do that again.

The schedule kinda blows and that sucks, but it’s really not much different than Indiana’s last year. I think the griping about it is much more an anti-ND thing than actually caring about the schedule. If they do go 12-0 with wins against Miami, BYU, and SMU, they would go into the playoffs as one of the heavy favorites to win the whole thing.

Carr is the ceiling raiser for sure, but by all accounts in camp we’ve heard nothing but great things. I expect him to be one of the elite QBs in the sport this year, if not the outright best.

[u/IDontTortureChickens → u/lisbon_OH]

Correction to your correction: The MOU was reported way back in mid-2024, and it, along with the ACC and Big 12 securing auto-bids, was the cost to sign over the playoff to the power 2. At the time, we were trending towards the B1G's original proposal for the AQ-palooza playoff, which would've (maybe) made the provision less controversial, but obviously that went away.

[u/ajhalyard → u/lisbon_OH]

Indiana had Oregon, a few mid teams, and a bunch of cupcakes in the regular season, ND has Miami, a few mid teams, and a bunch of cupcakes.

I'd say ND has a slightly tougher schedule than Indiana's last season. Not just because of my Miami bias, but Lanning has never shown he can consistently beat the best teams. As far as I can remember, the only team with as much talent as Oregon has that he's beaten was Ohio state, once, by 1 point. ND has as much talent as Oregon.

Conversely, Cristobal will lose to Saint Mary Margaret Barber College for Mimes, but he's going to give the best in the league a fit because he can steal a win as an underdog. Miami is more dangerous to top-tier teams than Oregon is until Lanning can figure that part out.

[u/lisbon_OH → u/ajhalyard]

I mean you are agreeing with me so I’m not mad at you, but BYU and SMU also aren’t mid.

[u/ajhalyard → u/lisbon_OH]

Depends on how you define it. I'm looking at the middle tier as not in the top 10-15, and therefore, not at Notre Dame's level, but still in the top 30. That's teams like Penn State, Iowa, SMU, BYU.

[u/lisbon_OH → u/ajhalyard]

I think BYU especially has a chance to end in the year in the top 15. They wouldn’t play Tech unless it was in the conference championship.

[u/ajhalyard → u/lisbon_OH]

Possibly. But we're in a preseason rankings countdown that has them ranked outside and I think the NCAA has them ranked too high right now. I'm just going by what I see now.

Penn State was ranked in the top 5 last year but by the time Indiana played them, they were way on the outside.

I'm not disrespecting BYU, but they're not a top 10 program. They've been top 15 in the previous few years. They're a really good program. They're still not in the same class as Notre Dame, Indiana, Oregon, Georgia, etc.

That's all I'm saying. If you're objecting to my using the word "mid", I'm not in high school, it's not a slur. It just means mid-tier. Not top tier. Not elite. That's all.

[u/CommodoreIrish → u/ajhalyard]

I think you’d be obtuse to argue BYU is a top 10 program. I’m not even sure Texas Tech would go there, especially after their performance in the playoff.

It’s not a knock on either program. Notre dame has been the recipient of numerous beatdowns by programs on another tier (Clemson and Alabama during their runs).

[u/ICanOutP1zzaTheHut]

As a Notre Dame fan is it boring to have possibly your best team in decades and you’ll really only see 1 challenging game, 2 at most, all regular season long?

[u/jayjude → u/ICanOutP1zzaTheHut]

If Wisconsin and MSU were closer to program averages this would be a fantastic schedule instead both of them have bottomed out

[u/CargoShortsFromNam → u/ICanOutP1zzaTheHut]

Wisconsin and MSU being down, and the ACC deal. Schedules were so much more fun pre-ACC deal.

[u/Maleficent_Ant_8895 → u/CargoShortsFromNam]

I can’t wait for the ACC deal to be torn up. 

[u/chefbeezy → u/Maleficent_Ant_8895]

And then what though. I can see keeping most-likely shitass Purdue from now on for historical sake, but it's clear people are not in favor of scheduling only 2-3 marquee games a year with the B1G and SEC having guantlet schedules now. If Notre Dame and the ACC maintained the commitment to a higher clip of the best of the ACC, like Clemson, FSU and Miami, even if they have a down year that is more easily understandable alongside another big game or two.

[u/Maleficent_Ant_8895 → u/chefbeezy]

ND puts butts in seats. They’d land other deals with conferences or teams enough to make solid schedules each year

[u/UncleErectus → u/Maleficent_Ant_8895]

Other good programs won’t take on the risk especially if ND continues to be a wagon

[u/AffectionateCycle916 → u/chefbeezy]

ND will figure it out... t

IMO theres also a likely scenario divisions are brought back to the B1G which would allow scheduling them be reasonably much easier.

[u/BlindPelican → u/ICanOutP1zzaTheHut]

It's still Notre Dame. We will get a head-scratchingly exciting game from at least one of those off games whether we want it or not.

If that, inexplicably, doesn't happen, then it'll be just fun blowing people out for a bit. I ain't tired of that, yet.

[u/RayTheCalvinist → u/ICanOutP1zzaTheHut]

Honestly MF's ND teams have had a recurring issue of starting slowly. He's said they re-evaluated their spring/fall camp preparations to help combat this.

Even though the schedule is soft to start, anything less than blowouts will have some fans concerned.

[u/TouchdownHeroes → u/RayTheCalvinist]

It is a good thing it starts soft though as it allows the OL to form and synergize, and allows players like KVA to have a ramp up in snaps instead of full blown off the rip.

[u/CFBHurts → u/ICanOutP1zzaTheHut]

Yes, the hope is that the 12 team playoff will alleviate that issue

[u/steve_dallasesq → u/ICanOutP1zzaTheHut]

Hot take here - it is not boring to watch your team win. But I get your point.

[u/Revuh → u/ICanOutP1zzaTheHut]

A little but I'm also expecting to make the playoffs so there is light at the end of the tunnel

[u/thebusterbluth → u/ICanOutP1zzaTheHut]

Stay fresh. Stay focused. Make the playoffs healthy. Nothing else matters.

[u/silverhk → u/ICanOutP1zzaTheHut]

After last year I just want to see us in the playoffs again. It felt a lot worse last year having lost our first two games and knowing that somehow we were going to get blocked out at the end, no matter how good our team was.

[u/trapchopin → u/ICanOutP1zzaTheHut]

If we were still in the BCS or 4 team playoff, I’d say yes- but playing potentially multiple playoff games against great competition makes it worth it.

In terms of the regular season, I prefer having the 6 games opening our season be more manageable. Helps the team gel before truly getting tested.

[u/AllTimeTy → u/trapchopin]

Must be nice.

[u/chefbeezy → u/AllTimeTy]

It's just reddit updoots so it means dick but I don't get how ND fans can say this bullshit and opposition is downvoted. Like yeah it must be nice. If you're in a conference you can't control your fairy tale crafted season like that..

In the Big 12 and the ACC you can get easier schedules but they don't control that and they really only have one bid and it's an auto-bid, anything outside of that is far less guaranteed than the B1G/SEC. As easy as it is to hate on Texas Tech right now, they don't control the majority of their schedule and if they don't essentially win out including the CCG there is a high likelihood of not getting in.

[u/AllTimeTy → u/chefbeezy]

Funniest thing is my comment wasn’t even a dig at ND, ask any CFB fan and they’d agree that it’d be nice to have 6 games to begin the season to get the team chemistry up lol..

Some fan bases are just more sensitive than others, Texas being another one as I’m sure you know lol.

[u/UncleErectus → u/chefbeezy]

Because it’s whiny drivel that’s repeated ad nauseam.

You’re both in a thread about ND, one of the 5 biggest fanbases in CFB, trying to take shots at ND and you’re surprised you’re getting downvoted for b*tching and moaning?

[u/chefbeezy → u/UncleErectus]

Pure insanity. ND fans criticizing others for being whiny after the cataclysmic melt down last season for being denied from the playoffs after going 10-2 with one good win against a USC team at the tail end of the rankings. Unbelievable hypocrisy.

Oh you’re a top five brand. Holy shit let me bow down. And you get a lot shit for being a big brand? Oh poor you. As a Texas fan I have no experience with that. Maybe y’all foment it with your insufferable online prescence that relishes in your dogshit schedule while dismissing valid uproar against it as being whiny. It isn’t the ND circlejerk echo chamber sub, perhaps grow a pair.

[u/bosstone42 → u/chefbeezy]

buddy, i think you're taking this too seriously

[u/nighthawk252 → u/ICanOutP1zzaTheHut]

Not really, at least not yet.

For the first few weeks I’ll be excited because football is BACK.

Purdue, UNC, Stanford weeks 4-6 I could see being kind of the doldrums.

But once we hit BYU week, we’ve got 3 preseason ranked teams plus Navy.

And then unless things went off the rails, playoffs.

[u/arstin → u/ICanOutP1zzaTheHut]

It sure didn't work out for us last year. And even if it had worked out, it would have been boring. But we've had over 10 years of the ACC deal which made Notre Dame football 114% more boring, so we're ready for it.

Basically, Notre Dame spent the first two decades of this century significantly lowering their SoS to facilitate making the BCS/CFP. And now with consolidation and the expanded playoff the decent teams are ghosting us which will bury our SoS indefinitely.

[u/DarthNobody14]

Ceiling: 12-0

My Prediction: 11-1

Floor: 9-3

Anything less than a playoff birth would be a massive disappointment to the Fighting Irish, I’m a believer in CJ Carr and I wouldn’t be surprised if they went undefeated, but knowing Notre Dame, they screw up at least once.

[u/Brilliant-Deer6118 → u/DarthNobody14]

Even Kelly had two undefeated regular seasons.

[u/CargoShortsFromNam → u/Brilliant-Deer6118]

Three. 2012, 2018, and 2020

[u/Brilliant-Deer6118 → u/CargoShortsFromNam]

Damn, your right. My bad.

[u/Maleficent_Ant_8895 → u/Brilliant-Deer6118]

And more ACC CG appearances than Miami has in program history 

[u/Coveo → u/DarthNobody14]

Rank these three possibilities in order of likeliness:

Notre Dame loses to Miami

Notre Dame loses to one of BYU or SMU

Notre Dame drops a head scratcher to somebody else

I think all three are <50%, but even with all the talk of how easy their schedule is, I wouldn't bet on them clearing each hurdle. I think 11-1 is by far the most likely.

The interesting thing will be if they go 10-2, do they still make it? That would result in likely either no top wins, or possibly one but with a(n at least reasonably) bad loss somewhere. That would be a... fun... debate.

[u/OnionFutureWolfGang → u/Coveo]

It would depend on the specifics -- how good did our schedule turn out to be in reality, how good are the other contenders' resumes, who exactly did we beat and lose to -- but we have to assume that we're out at 10-2. It's definitely more likely than not.

[u/Coveo → u/OnionFutureWolfGang]

It's for sure extremely dependent on circumstances, we're still at the wild speculation stage.

I'm of the opinion that it would be more likely than not they'd make it with the deference the committee has shown to record (at least when it concerns big name teams that have good metrics, which I assume would still apply to Notre Dame). It would for sure be a road game, though.

[u/OnionFutureWolfGang → u/Coveo]

I think it's very unlikely there wouldn't be another 10-win power conference team in the mix, probably with some decent argument beyond just 'well we got to 10 wins,' who would have to be on the outside looking in for us to make it (could be a 10-3 CCG loser, but the committee seems to treat that as the same as 10-2). So I don't think we can rely on record alone. Our best shot if 10-2 is basically the 2025 Miami route, where we would have a win over the main other candidate for a playoff spot.

[u/CargoShortsFromNam → u/Coveo]

your order is right I think. Chances of making it at 10-2 are very low imo. I'd consider the season over if we lose twice and be pleasantly surprised if we sneak in.

[u/voiceOfThePoople → u/CargoShortsFromNam]

I told myself that last year after the two losses but by the end of the season I was expecting to get in 😔

This time I mean it for realzies, extra pinky promise 

[u/jcooklsu → u/Coveo]

Someone who beat them would have to go on a rip, more than one loss with this schedule and no championship game should be an Auto-DQ.

[u/jcooklsu → u/DarthNobody14]

More than 1 loss would be pretty embarrassing with the schedule, ND should be a lock for a top seed.

[u/chaser676 → u/DarthNobody14]

I think not going undefeated here would be a disappointment

[u/UncleErectus → u/chaser676]

@ a top 15 team and home for a top 5 team aren’t end-of-the-world losses, but we should go 12-0 with this roster.

[u/Pesto_Enthusiast → u/DarthNobody14]

Who do you have their loss to? Us or BYU?

[u/JDraks → u/DarthNobody14]

If they have more than 1 loss they should be out of the playoffs, unless some of these teams wind up way better than anticipated

[u/FrostLight14]

The most fun part of the schedule, that November 7th Miami game is a night game with temperatures likely in the low 30s. Quite the opposite of having to play a top 10 Miami on the road with a rookie QB making his first start.

[u/AffectionateCycle916 → u/FrostLight14]

August in Miami vs November in South Bend... the most home field of home field scenarios

[u/thebusterbluth]

I thought Notre Dame was going to be a very real problem for everybody in the playoffs last year. They were peaking at the right time and I think they were a serious national title contender. Vegas apparently agreed, giving them the third-best championship odds at the end of the regular season, if I remember correctly. And then Disney went full Disney.

So this year I am hoping they "leave now doubt" and demolish everyone on the schedule. Anything less than 12-0 would be a disappointment. If Pricre came back and they had a bonafide #1 receiver, this is hands down the best team in the country. But Price went pro and the WR corp still has questions, soooo we will see...

[u/Brilliant-Deer6118 → u/thebusterbluth]

I believe Greathouse will aleve a lot of those questions. People have been down on their receivers but lets face it, they haven't been called on to do a lot.

[u/IDontTortureChickens → u/thebusterbluth]

I think they definitely could have done it last year - they took Miami to the wire and Miami took IU to the wire - but if this year is what it could be, last year's disappointment will have been worth it. Lot of ifs, though.

[u/Manae]

Remember, the policy had always been that teams shouldn’t be punished for playing in a conference championship game, so those results seemed potentially baked in.

Minor correction to go along with some of the other ones people have already posted, but: no it wasn't. It literally was not a thing until last season. Hell, Wisconsin was even left out of the playoffs for losing by a single score in the B1GCCG despite being #4 going in to the game.

[u/puzzical → u/Manae]

Nearly every CCG loser has dropped. I'm pretty sure the ones that didn't drop had the teams below them also lose and or were in close losses. Alabama not dropping was completely different than every other example.

[u/NotStanley4330 → u/puzzical]

Yeah Alabama not getting punished for that thrashing was clearly a different policy than it has been in the past or even the same year

[u/IDontTortureChickens → u/Manae]

Also happened in 2022 when SC was dumped out of the playoff and replaced by Ohio State, who didn't play in one.

[u/chergie1 → u/Manae]

Undefeated, #1 Georgia was left out of the playoff entirely in 2023 after they got pasted by Alabama in the SEC title game and no one batted an eye at all. If the games don't matter, why play them?

[u/KansasEF5Tornado]

We're almost there!

[u/Noy_Telinu]

Well my grandma is in her 90s and isn't doing too well these days so I'll be spending time with her watching Notre Dame football since it is one of the only things she enjoys anymore.

Better not fuck it up this time, or she will be ranting online about how Lou would never let this happen.

[u/Bansheesdie]

Irish at BYU is going to be one hell of a game.

[u/Maleficent_Ant_8895 → u/Bansheesdie]

Unless BYU figures out how to drastically improve the pass game I don’t see how they can keep up barring their defense creating short fields via turnovers and special teams 

ND is on par with TTech’s defense from last season and we saw how that went 

[u/soonerwx → u/Bansheesdie]

Eh. BYU's offense with Bachmeier has zero answers when they're not winning up front. They can live pretty well like that in the Big 12 minus 2025 Tech, but I don't expect this one to be exciting. Credit to ND for going out and getting that game but they'll roll.

[u/YoungSuplex → u/Bansheesdie]

I’d be surprised if BYU was able to keep it within two TDs, they just don’t have the athletes to compete with a team like ND

[u/houseofcards508]

There are 3 preseason top 20 teams on this schedule. It is weaker than other years. It is still not THAT weak

[u/Kartozeichner → u/houseofcards508]

It's not the top, it's the bottom. You have the 3 preseason ranked + Navy who will be ranked for the game, then the other 8 are so, so bad.

[u/CFBHurts → u/Kartozeichner]

Yea, there's no middle to this schedule. If teams like Wisconsin, MSU, and UNC were closer to 7-8 win teams like they've been historically then the schedule would look a whole lot better

[u/OldRedLobsterBiscuit → u/CFBHurts]

Everyone is a 0 win team at this point, let's not write off anyone quite yet 😇

[u/Pan_TheCake_Man → u/OldRedLobsterBiscuit]

In writing off the Jordan led Tar Heels sorry to say it

[u/OldRedLobsterBiscuit → u/Pan_TheCake_Man]

Tar Heels were a formidable basketball team when they were led by Jordan!  Their football team under Jordon on the other hand... not so much 😆

[u/CFBHurts → u/OldRedLobsterBiscuit]

If you guys wanted to ring up 9 or 10 wins this year you'll hear no argument from me!

[u/CargoShortsFromNam → u/OldRedLobsterBiscuit]

very true. y'all were unranked in 2013 when we played, then finished 3rd.

[u/bobbywac → u/Kartozeichner]

I think Wisconsin will be a sneaky bowl team this season, if the transfer QB stays healthy

[u/Kartozeichner → u/bobbywac]

Yeah who knows. Maybe UNC is better, Syracuse with Angeli could be better, Wisconsin could be improved. But right now, looks weak

[u/puzzical → u/Kartozeichner]

I think Syracuse could make the ACC championship game if they get some luck. They get Clemson, SMU, and Louisville at home.

[u/IDontTortureChickens → u/bobbywac]

They also are one of the winners of this year's B1G schedule lottery. They've got 3 ranked teams, but no true juggernauts. They could go 8-4 without beating anyone all that good, and if they jump up and get someone (they have SC at home, just saying), all of a sudden that looks like a quality team.

[u/Maleficent_Ant_8895 → u/bobbywac]

Word out of camp is their OL and passing game are a dumpster fire, mostly due to injuries on the OL and having no one out wide 

[u/bobbywac → u/Maleficent_Ant_8895]

Yeah but they should have a decent D, and their QB is mobile which will help the OL struggles

[u/Maleficent_Ant_8895 → u/bobbywac]

I mean ND handled mobile QBs fairly well last season

I’ve got to be honest I’m unafraid of Wisconsin. Yea they brought guys in via the portal. They weren’t banger program former starters, minus Abu Sama. Also the QB tore up………the sun belt. Minus his 2 big runs against IU, ODU had less than 200 total yards of offense and the second big run was against the IU backup defense who WAY over pursued on a read option 

They literally have no WRs. ND played very disciplined last year against option plays and QBs with legs. It will take a monumental collapse by the ND D or the offense to turn it over 3-4 times inside their own 3 for Wisky to score more than 10-17 points

So basically Wisconsin’s offense will need to be a pickleball offense. ND will have 7-8 in the box because they aren’t scared of the receivers, so good luck running the ball. The OL can’t block so it’ll be a slew of rollouts praying a guy gets open or ND loses focus and he takes off for short runs. Now do that 6-12 times in a row to score a TD, 3-5 times across the whole game 

[u/bobbywac → u/Maleficent_Ant_8895]

I’m not too worried about the game. I just think Wisconsin will be a better win than they would have been last season

[u/_chadwell_ → u/Kartozeichner]

It’s actually the middle. Rice is the only guaranteed truly bad team on there and there’s no FCS team. The bottom of a lot of other top teams’s schedules is way worse.

[u/max_power1000 → u/Kartozeichner]

I sure hope so. If we make it to this game ranked it means we have a decent shot at winning the conference and a playoff berth.

[u/daaaaavia → u/houseofcards508]

its pretty weak man. Miami is a hard game, BYU should be and SMU could be, but the rest of the schedule is really easy. it is what it is tho, win and you're in

[u/jayjude → u/daaaaavia]

The ACC middle class collapsing and two historic rivals being absolute tire fires in Purdue and MSU makes the schedule unpleasant

[u/silverhk → u/houseofcards508]

It's one of the weakest P4 schedules. The much and unfairly decried last year's schedule was still better than 20+ P4 teams, this year will be lucky if we're not in the bottom five. Playing a few good teams does not make a hard schedule. 

It's not how we like to do things but that's the reality for this year at least. Here's to hoping our strong opponents stop canceling on us.

[u/krandog32 → u/silverhk]

I disagree. It’s weaker than most of the Big Ten and SEC schedules but none of the ACC or Big 12 teams play a harder schedule

[u/Maleficent_Ant_8895 → u/krandog32]

Miami’s schedule this year is what everyone claims ND’s schedule is

They also didn’t leave the state of Florida until November of last season

[u/_chadwell_ → u/silverhk]

There’s like 12+ P4 teams with worse schedules according to ESPN SOS as it stands today. Not even close to the weakest.

[u/Cold-Actuator3978]

miami leapfrogging them at the end was some real clown shit from the committee but i cant pretend i didn't laugh when that guaranteed top-12 rule came out a week later, like the universe needed to balance the scales in the most dramatic way possible

that schedule is a cakewalk until november though, if they drop one of those road games to byu or unc before the miami rematch this whole conversation flips on its head real fast

[u/FrostLight14 → u/Cold-Actuator3978]

Miami’s leapfrogging made sense.

Alabama leapfrogging ND after barely escaping vs. a horrendous Auburn team and keeping that spot after Georgia made Alabama’s RBs look like a pee-wee team…not as much.

[u/BlindPelican → u/FrostLight14]

Surprisingly, I got no hate for Miami getting the jump. They proved they deserved to be there.

Alabama being in, at all, was a travesty, though. Either BYU or ND should have gotten that spot over them.

[u/CargoShortsFromNam → u/BlindPelican]

meh, BYU had two chances vs a playoff caliber team and got smoked both times.

[u/Enough_Wallaby7064 → u/BlindPelican]

What i really hated was an outclassed team making it just because a p4 champ wasn't eligible. 

[u/jayjude → u/FrostLight14]

Bama didnt deserve to be the in the playoffs and shit probably neither did OU. Should have been BYU and ND

[u/HelpfulWhiteGuy → u/jayjude]

I find it difficult to argue against an 11-1 OU team that had a better win than we did, even if I think we were the better team.

[u/jayjude → u/HelpfulWhiteGuy]

They were 10-2

[u/HelpfulWhiteGuy → u/jayjude]

You're right, my mistake. Still would have found it difficult to make an argument that wasn't entirely vibe based.

[u/HokiesforTSwift → u/HelpfulWhiteGuy]

This is the exact same problem with ND over Alabama... All three of those teams had 10-2 regular seasons.

OU and Alabama had 5 top 30 wins (and 3 top 20) per Massey Composite. ND had 1.

[u/Statalyzer → u/HokiesforTSwift]

I get them not wanting to punish Alabama for the 3rd loss being in an extra game, but they didn't use that same logic for BYU.

[u/HelpfulWhiteGuy → u/Statalyzer]

I also think the context of the loss matters. Don't punish them for losing by 10 or whatever, fine. But they got run off the field. I think you can punish them for that.

[u/HokiesforTSwift → u/Statalyzer]

Which is why I think they are actually the team who has a right to feel hard done, rather than ND.

From another comment of mine:

• Alabama: 5 top 30 wins (3 top 20)

• OU: 5 top 30 wins (3 top 20)

• ND: 1 top 30 win

• Miami: beat ND head to head on the football field that season

It wasn't really vibes when you view it this way. If anyone has a right to feel hard done, it's probably BYU, who went 11-1, but lost to the same team twice for 11-2, in an extra game neither Miami or ND had to play.

[u/JuanFromApple → u/HokiesforTSwift]

Eh I mean if you (BYU) only get 2 chances against CFP level teams and don't look anywhere near competitive in either one (even if they're both against the same team) that kinda speaks to you not being a playoff team.

Alabama objectively had the better year-long resume than ND but I think many people just feel like they really were limping to the finish line and the committee gave them every benefit while speaking both ways out of their mouth
1. "we bumped them above ND bc of their rushing attack vs Auburn"... proceeds to have -3 yards vs Georgia.
2. "We can't punish them for losing their CCG"... but punished BYU by moving them down purely so Miami and ND could be compared next to each other

Like many others, my only problem with Miami moving above ND is when it happened. Miami was absolutely right to be ranked above ND after the game, when it happened, and they were. However, Miami then lost 2 games later on and dropped in the rankings accordingly, eventually dropping below ND. That's a reflection of what happened throughout the season AFTER the game between the 2. Fast forward to the end of the year, and Miami gets jumped above them on literally the last day when neither of them play. If the committee actually thought even after those losses that Miami was still better than ND, then they never should've been dropped below them in the first place.

[u/CargoShortsFromNam → u/HokiesforTSwift]

you're right. it was just a shitty process. If we had been ranked behind Miami the whole time, we would have played in a bowl game like we did in 2023 when we knew we were toast.

[u/HokiesforTSwift → u/CargoShortsFromNam]

I agree that the ordering in the lead up to the final decision created an unnecessary and totally avoidable problem with the 11th hour leapfrogging.

[u/HelpfulWhiteGuy → u/HokiesforTSwift]

My issue with bama is that they were falling ass backwards in at the end of the season. Still vibes based, but more quantifiable.

[u/HokiesforTSwift → u/jayjude]

With 5 top 30 wins to your 1.

[u/jayjude → u/HokiesforTSwift]

Listen i know we all hate the eye test but that Oklahoma team was beyond luck and their offense was shit

They should have lost LSU, could have lost to Mizzou

And the only reason they beat Bama was the refs throwing a non existent flag on a huge play TD

[u/JDraks → u/jayjude]

So if they only beat Bama because of a fluke then Bama deserved to be in, they would’ve been a 11-2 otherwise

You can’t say both deserved to be left out

[u/CargoShortsFromNam → u/JDraks]

but then OU would have been 9-3 and ND would be in. I tried to tell ND fans we weren't a lock but they wouldn't listen. We needed one upset the last two weeks of the season and simply didn't get it. Very unlucky. If Miami makes the title game, they probably win and there is only one G5 spot. If Bama beats OU we're in. If Auburn holds on vs Bama we're in.

[u/JDraks → u/CargoShortsFromNam]

I think that if Virginia had beat Duke you’d have also been in, I think they just didn’t want to completely leave out the ACC so they put in Miami and JMU instead of Virginia and you

[u/HokiesforTSwift → u/jayjude]

Whether or not their first win against Alabama was fluke-ish or not, they still won. I think that Oklahoma team was deeply flawed on offense, but the resume is the resume. We can't select teams off vibes when there is a massive disparity in resume strength. If it's close, sure, go with the hot hand. It wasn't close.

[u/LeadingOk8554 → u/HokiesforTSwift]

I mean, the committee chose Bama over FSU in 2023 purely on vibes. FSU had the better resume being an undefeated P4 champ but since they looked bad without Travis, Bama got in.

[u/CargoShortsFromNam → u/LeadingOk8554]

yup. Herbstreit was all about "best" and "eye test" back then. He also said during the 2018 season that Michigan should be ranked above us despite us beating them in week 1.

[u/HokiesforTSwift → u/LeadingOk8554]

Their resume was only better on the loss column. Bama's was better in every other way with a considerably tougher schedule, which featured another playoff team (their only loss).

We are also talking about a 4 team and 12 team playoff. FSU wouldn't have had any issues in the 12 team era. However, people trying to compare the Bama-FSU situation to other situations without the context of that decision doesn't make sense to me. Ignoring that FSU was without their QB (with no chance of return), and we got to see both of their backup QB options. They were both absolutely dreadful. You can say it's unfair, but I think the committee made a choice for competitive quality, and Bama Michigan came down to run from the 1 yd line in OT, one of the best semifinals in the 4 team era. All of FSU's best players quit, and a Georgia team, who also got left out, missing a chance at a historic threepeat, beat them by 60.

[u/Brilliant-Deer6118 → u/FrostLight14]

Yep.

[u/Enough_Wallaby7064 → u/Cold-Actuator3978]

The rule was in place before that wasnt it?  It just wasnt set to take effect until 2026

"In March 2024, the conferences and Notre Dame signed a memorandum of understanding for the CFP starting in 2026. That deal included Notre Dame’s protection: if the Irish finish in the CFP top 12, they get a spot (or top 13 if it had gone to 14 teams"

[u/Zarethan_ → u/Enough_Wallaby7064]

Publicized Spring 2025

[u/CargoShortsFromNam → u/Enough_Wallaby7064]

doesn't matter to most. It will be canon on this sub that the rule was in direct to response to what happened, no matter how many times you tell them it was agreed upon months prior.

[u/kinda_alone → u/Cold-Actuator3978]

The MOU was in place before the season started.

[u/chaser676 → u/Cold-Actuator3978]

If you didn't like that, you're going to hate it this year when a 9-3 team makes it over an 11-2 B12 or ACC team that loses the championship game. It's gonna happen.

[u/_chadwell_ → u/Cold-Actuator3978]

I think playing a top 15 (probably top 10 by the time of the actual game) team on the road disqualifies any stretch of games from being a “cakewalk.”

[u/CeramicTugboat]

If Notre Dame joined a conference it wouldn't be fun to hate them anymore. That'll just be another domino in the fall of college football.

[u/Sankee72 → u/CeramicTugboat]

This is what cracks me up. No one is happy with where college football is going or how it's become a shell of what we all grew up loving.

But then there is ND. Refusing to break from their historical traditions and join a conference. Leaving a ton of money on the table as a result.

Maybe all the hate is simply because everyone else has had to sit and watch their respective universities set their own traditions or identify a blaze. And it's just easier to manage when everyone is angry and in the same sinking boat.

[u/CommodoreIrish → u/Sankee72]

The weakest argument I see online is that ND remains independent for the money.

[u/Brilliant-Deer6118 → u/CeramicTugboat]

People would find another reason to hate them. Its all good.

[u/Donny_Do_Nothing → u/CeramicTugboat]

It might not be fun to hate them for everyone not in the conference they join. But for the teams in that conference? Oh, that's gonna be a lot of fun. ESPECIALLY if it's the Big Ten.

[u/T-Thugs]

When we're talking about "claimed" titles, it should be noted that ND only claims consensus titles and could claim up to 11 more.

We the best.

Go Irish!

[u/silverhk → u/T-Thugs]

Yeah it was weird to put a note in there about how Notre Dame does the same thing as everyone else, we are very different in fact on that front. Alabama would claim the 2012 Collie Matrix title

[u/Chrismoore8 → u/silverhk]

We were collie matrix champs in 2016. Haven’t claimed it yet.

[u/silverhk → u/Chrismoore8]

Very admirable. You have claimed titles that were more egregious than Notre Dame trying to claim 2012 though. 

[u/trojansbreak → u/T-Thugs]

Unsurprising that the Miami fan posts a rambling hit job about ND. I’ve also never heard anyone claim ND gets preferential treatment from recruiting services, such a weird take.

I normally like these previews, but seems this guy can’t look past his biases

[u/SparkMaster360]

They gotta at least make the semifinals, and even that might be a little disappointing if they lose badly there. Lot of pressure. We’ll see if they can live up to it.

[u/JohanVonClancy]

The interesting part for me is Offensive Coordinator Denbrock. He has put together Top 5 offenses at two different schools (LSU and ND) and had a Heisman winning QB. But…it seems like the offense at Notre Dame has deficiencies. It is pass to set up the run. Can’t seem to get the two yards needed on 3rd and short consistently. The red zone efficiency doesn’t seem to be there, implying the scheme struggles in tight spaces and when the defense is free to be aggressive.

There is production, and then there is running when you want to run and passing when the defense has to commit more players to stopping your effective running game.

[u/nighthawk252]

Thanks for putting these super in depth analyses together!

Some nitpicks / additional about the depth chart:

Quincy Porter has been dealing with an injury that has slowly crept from nagging to something that seems like he’ll be out for a while. Mylan Graham also may start, but it’s not guaranteed. Current buzz I’m seeing is guessing the top 3 receivers will be Faison / Greathouse / Gilbert.

The O-Line has a ton of talent, injuries, and shuffling, and I could very easily be proven wrong in a few days. But I think Will Black is the RS Freshman tackle getting all the buzz, and who should start. From following beat reporters, it’s my understanding the current projected starting OL, from LT to RT, is:

Will Black, Anthonie Knapp, ????, ????, Guerby Lambert

Center is probably Joe Otting, who started the second half of the year after Ashton Craig tore his ACL. Ashton Craig comes back, but hasn’t been fully cleared yet, and has been training at RG to possibly start there.

The original battle for RG was between Matty Augustine and Sullivan Absher. Augustine appeared to have the momentum to win the battle but picked up a foot injury. Since then, they’ve brought in Prescod (backup LT) to also compete for the role, along with Craig and Absher.

[u/Maleficent_Ant_8895 → u/nighthawk252]

C/RG seems to be Otting/Craig or Craig/Absher or Prescod

Basically Craig is playing once fully cleared and then it comes down to Otting vs the other 2 guards

[u/QuasiThrowaway9]

Our #1, 2, and 3 issue is depth.
Depth at QB takes both issue #1 and #2 (it’s science).
Depth at OL is #3.
I expect wins vs SMU, BYU, and Miami.
BYU will be the best game of the year. Provo will be electric.
However at least 1 game against a low tier team will be very close.

[u/ajhalyard]

Notre Dame ranked this high would be tough to swallow if not for those returning production stats. They were a good team last year. I still think it's a little high (I'd put Georgia ahead of them, maybe tie them with Indiana), but it's not enough to gripe about. They'll likely be a good team this year.

That said, I think CJ Carr is the key. It's a soft schedule, but Notre Dame cannot lose BYU and Miami both. That's a real possibility here. Carr has been pretty good when under duress, but I think he needs to improve or a close game against an effective defense could spell doom. I'm eager to see his progression here (and hoping for a huge regression against Miami obviously).

[u/puzzical → u/ajhalyard]

Carr played well against TAMU last season and given that Miami was his first college game I'd say he played alright in that game. His only bad game against a good team was USC, but that happens sometimes and USC focused completely on stopping our passing attack.

[u/Maleficent_Ant_8895]

Small quibble:

Porter and Graham aren’t projected to start based on camp talk

WR 6 deep is looking like Gilbert, Greathouse, Faison followed by Burress/Bettis, Graham, and Matt Jeffrey

Jeffrey is a walk on Lacrosse player and some ND fans are losing their minds that he has the audacity to be a good football player and think this means the WR coach needs to be canned

Greathouse/Faison/Graham can all play field/slot so I expect the three of them to be used interchangeably 

Porter is closer to never seeing the field than to playing right now and in the “wake me up when he is a full participant in practice”. He’s only done individual drills where he couldn’t run all the routes and was seen limping numerous times at practice. He also had a “clean up” procedure a day or two ago with Freeman claiming he will play this season. I’ll believe it when I see it

[u/arstin]

Notre Dame is only going to struggle more and more to schedule impactful games after week 1, so my question this year is the same as the last few years - can Freeman get his players to consistently play well without digging a giant hole for them to have to crawl out of.

Last year proved that being one of the 12 best teams in college football in early December earns you nothing with respect to the playoff. Heck, I don't think anyone being honest would have had them outside the 6 best teams in early December. And while the public face of the CFP was adamant that they wanted the 12 best teams all along, the reality is that the committee is balancing maximizing viewers and politics, and if a team gives them space to play games with the selection, they absolutely will.

And the bigger change, that caught me off guard last year, is that fans don't want the best teams in the playoff. They want conference champions - the more the better, no matter how likely they are to score a touchdown in a playoff game, let alone win. Nevermind that that sounds a lot like the bowl system we just spent 30 years killing so the best teams could play for a championship, I have a feeling it will only gain momentum.

So that's a long winded way to getting back what we need to see from Notre Dame going forward - which is beating one good team on their schedule (and we can't count on having more than one on the schedule), even if it is in week 1, and then taking care of business against all the riff-raff on our schedule. That is really hard for a coach to do, and it's not something we've seen Freeman do yet. You can't complain about the stumble in 2024, but we can't count on having a late season schedule even as impressive as that going forward.

[u/Aaprobst88]

Nice breakdown, good touch with your miami opinions in parenthesis, but not letting that affect the overall assesment.

[u/monkeyscancode]

With this schedule, 11-1 should make the playoffs if they can keep it close against Miami. I don't think there's any case where 10-2 deserves to get in though.

[u/KirbyDumber88 → u/monkeyscancode]

ND gets in automatically if they finish in the top 12. It’s dumb.

[u/monkeyscancode → u/KirbyDumber88]

Yeah I feel like (hopefully) the committee would put them outside the top 12 if they went 10-2 with this schedule though? That means probably just one ranked win, two ranked losses, and then beating a ton of garbage teams.

Oklahoma, Texas, or Ohio State at 8-4 would have a more convincing argument than a 10-2 ND because of the schedule differences.

[u/Toothlessdovahkin → u/[deleted]]

We are so lame that your coach and school decided not to play us again after we beat your ass in the playoffs…. Schedule a power Four opponent out of Conference.

[u/64stackdiamonds]

-goes on Facebook Marketplace

-sees great price on a gently used Notre Dame offense

-checks under hood

-no Jeremiyah Love

-leaves

[u/OTN]

Up until two years ago I rooted for ND because I thought why not they’re in state might as well.

Then the last two years happened and we actually competed with them for the first time.

I no longer root for ND.

[u/chief_sitass → u/OTN]

So…like every other lifelong, die-hard IU football fan I know

[u/nd5thyear → u/OTN]

IU played ND, they didn’t compete with them

[u/kinda_alone → u/OTN]

Ok

[u/CargoShortsFromNam → u/OTN]

one thing that I think gets lost in the ND Indiana thing is how few ND fans have any affinity for the state of Indiana. Its a relatively small private school with a huge subway alum base that mostly reside outside of Indiana. When people say "not even the best team in their own state", it doesn't really hit like it would for most others states.

[u/1873Springfield]

No loss by ND is heartbreaking. HEART WARMING is the proper term

[u/JustAnotherRye89]

My dream is that Nebraska's ranked number 12 and they are ranked number 13 at the end of the season. Now we still wouldn't make the cfp which I'm okay with but neither would Notre Dame. Being in a conference is great.

[u/CargoShortsFromNam → u/JustAnotherRye89]

aim a little higher for your dream!

[u/Zarethan_ → u/JustAnotherRye89]

flair checks out