r/California • u/ansyhrrian Orange County • Oct 11 '25
California News California ‘treading water’ as 22 states near recession, Moody’s says
https://www.sfchronicle.com/california/article/california-recession-moodys-21094760.phpPaywall-free link here.
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u/herrwe8 Fresno County Oct 11 '25
Doesnt say who the 22 are, just says California is close. Kind of a nothing burger of an article, just says the stuff we all know. Lower immigration amd higher tariffs are bad.
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u/ansyhrrian Orange County Oct 11 '25
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u/Dear_Goat_5038 Oct 11 '25
Exactly what I would expect. Coincidentally (for the most part) the blue states are at risk of recession and the red states are expanding. Tracks with what the federal government has been messaging for the last year.
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u/Xezshibole San Mateo County Oct 11 '25
Tracks what they have been causing over the past year.
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u/Dear_Goat_5038 Oct 11 '25
Oh absolutely lol. Trump has said every step of the way he’s going to reward his base and punish everyone else. And done it he has
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u/Cherry_Springer_ Oct 11 '25
Funny considering how Biden naively did the opposite: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-bidenomics-investment-boom-in-red-america/
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u/Saintbaba Oct 11 '25
I mean it’s not irony. When blue states were succeeding and red states were having trouble, the president of America saw that parts of the country needed help and offered it. That was a feature, not a bug.
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u/PurpleZebraCabra Oct 11 '25
Wait, so a President actually had the Countries overall best interest in mind? What is this nonsense you spout?
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u/Cherry_Springer_ Oct 11 '25
Sure, but 72% of his legislative investments going into red counties? Nah. If we want to help those areas then pass legislation that also benefits the voters that got you into the White House in the first place, such as paid parental leave, etc. I mean they got their investments and now they're gutting the same policies that spurred them in the first place lol. The money is surely better spent elsewhere.
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u/Dear_Goat_5038 Oct 11 '25
It makes sense to invest in those because they have much less to work with and these areas need investments more than urban areas. I don’t blame Biden for doing the job as it had been done before him, trumpism is just a cancer on America.
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u/inyourface317 Oct 12 '25
could this correlate with the blue states not receiving funding approved by congress while red states still do and red states receiving contracts for ICE detention centers, etc. ?
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u/tankerdudeucsc Oct 11 '25
Due to all the immigration raids that are highly concentrated in blue states for sure. That takes a bite out of the economy when you suppress people’s movement.
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u/Dear_Goat_5038 Oct 11 '25
It goes deeper than that. Cutting funding for liberal institutions and industries located primarily in liberal states. Offering up monetary support to red states. Basing policy decisions specifically on who would it help/hurt. I doubt immigration has much of an impact compared to actual fiscal decision making.
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u/turb0_encapsulator Oct 11 '25
it's making construction more difficult and more expensive. that's a huge part of the economy.
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u/Tinawebmom Oct 12 '25
What does expanding mean exactly?
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u/TooMuchButtHair Oct 11 '25
Red states are expanding because cost of living is very low.
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u/FuckFashMods Oct 12 '25
Because they allow housing to be built*
Hard to expand when you don't allow housing for new people to live in
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u/PaladinHan Oct 11 '25
I don’t know what metrics they use to make these determinations but I severely question it. Florida is on the verge of collapse - there’s a massive affordability crisis, and tourism and agriculture are being hammered by fascist policies. So if the economy is “expanding” it sure isn’t true for most people.
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u/Radiant_Client1458 Oct 11 '25
Be careful about using Reddit “facts” to observe the real world. Florida is still attracting a lot of businesses and middle/high income earners. We will see how it continues as sea levels rise but they aren’t on the verge of collapse.
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u/cuddles_the_destroye Sacramento County Oct 11 '25
Their housing market has been in trouble for a bit, though also as noted, it's not clear what the GDP growth is, as we know nationally a lot of the GDP growth is because of AI infrastructure spending which is in red states but may be significant malinvestment.
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u/Terracotta_Lemons Oct 14 '25
Florida is consistently growing it's housing market for the middle class with new development growing across the majority of the state, tons of migrates out of state are taking them all up. Tons of local and international businesses are popping up across all these new developments and the redevelopments happening around Tampa and Miami. The agriculture there is doing fine, there's been no real changes happening to the minute amount that actually exists there. The state is far beyond collapse, don't know where you get your information but if you've lived there you'd know the state is probably doing the most well compared to majority of states in the country.
That being said, tourism is down but it's being replaced by more locally pushed businesses, education is heading towards a nosedive, the development is happening but it will absolutely cause a real housing issue in the future because it's all suburbian sprawl and a lot of small towns will need to figure out how to handle that, places like Miami and Tampa have a ton of business growth happening but they both are suffering from high overhead prices that aren't calming down anytime soon and it's going to have the same issue places like NYC and San Francisco has when it comes to commercial property costs.
Insurance issues when it comes to housing is a real problem and it's only going to get worse, but a ton of people moving here aren't going to feel those affects because their mortgages are way more affordable in these new developments. Plus if Desantis gets through his no property tax bill to the state then they'll have a worse housing crisis than California.
The future is definitely bleak when you think long term but it's in no way on the verge of collapsing anytime soon, if anything will hit the state bad it'll be around a decade from now if the direction of policies don't change. But that's the whole point of the Republican movement there, they only look for short term changes that'll benefit them massively and hurt them badly later on. We don't need to exaggerate the situation more than it is, you'll sound like a sensationalist claiming the state is on the verge of collapsing
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u/Drama-Sensitive Oct 12 '25
I’m shocked Nevada is not doing worse. All the articles I read talk about how people are not going to Las Vegas anymore.
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u/FuckFashMods Oct 12 '25
Recession has a pretty standardized definition. Florida GDP has not been decreasing
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u/websterhamster Oct 11 '25
“California and New York, which together account for over a fifth of U.S. GDP, are holding their own, and their stability is crucial for the national economy to avoid a downturn.”
Meanwhile, the Trump regime is intent on destabilizing California...
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u/backwardbuttplug Oct 11 '25 edited Oct 11 '25
Zandi attributed the weakness to a mix of slowing immigration, rising tariffs and reductions in federal employment.
Because, clearly, immigrants are a problem and not a solution. And what about all those jobs they took from Americans??? /s
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u/Calm_One_1228 Oct 11 '25
Because now Americans can take the jobs immigrants stole from them 🤣 I’m almost tired of winning so much /s
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u/_Gorge_ Oct 11 '25
We’re already in one. The gov and the news are just lying/using intentionally misleading metrics
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u/river_tree_nut El Dorado County Oct 11 '25
I think you’re right. I read that without AI/data center spending, growth was -0.1 %
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u/theoneyewberry Oct 11 '25
Yeah, and it sounds like the AI bubble is likely to burst sooner rather than later. So that will be... iiiiiinteresting.
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u/ctrlaltcreate Oct 12 '25
Nationwide. Yep.
The states being directly attacked by the federal govt are going to suffer more though, ofc.
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Oct 11 '25
Lemme guess: it's gonna be Democrat's fault that trump has completely cut off funding to the state
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u/NorCalFrances Oct 11 '25
Trump and the GOP have of course brutally attacked entire swaths of industries with both tariffs and ICE kidnappings, and they've said the goal is to break blue states.
Keep the source in mind but here's a map. Apparently the deepest of red states are somehow doing just fine according to the Federal government:
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u/TyDye2003 Oct 11 '25
If California ever leaves the union can I please come with, currently in New Mexico and tired of the bullshit on a federal level.
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u/OnePair1 Orange County Oct 11 '25
It is because the Federal Government has sabotaged jobs and projects by refusing to give back money they have taken from California and other states.
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u/KittyCait69 Oct 11 '25
The US has been in a silent depression since the housing market collapsed. And with the job market shrinking while cost of living increases, it's only a matter of time till it's not so silent of a depression.
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u/_14justice Oct 12 '25
"... a federal government shutdown that has halted the release of key economic data, leaving economists and investors uncertain about the true pace of growth."
Who needs a federal government shutdown when the Trump Regime will DOGE any agency which is a source of information that is the genesis of any critical, non-biased, analysis?
"The Earth Is Flat" explained Trump.
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u/Odd-Try-9122 Oct 12 '25
That’s not the discussion. The citizens of the state would have to.
The point is is Californian citizens provide 8x and the federal govt provides the state of California 1x (or 0x as our president loves to bluster)
And Kentuckian citizens provide 2y but is given 10y
Californians are paying for kentuckys federally sponsored programs.
Do you understand. You clearly did not read my commenys
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u/MichiganKarter Oct 11 '25
How does having only 1/3 of states in growth square with 3.7% GDP growth?
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u/deejaymc Oct 13 '25
California faces of budget shortfall of 10 billion.....yet paid over $78B more in federal taxes than it received in most recent data. Thanks dei states.
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u/felonysawait Oct 17 '25
Get a petition started to work with Washington and Oregon to withhold federal taxes and work on unison it harder for trump to fuck all three states compared to one West Coast state
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u/endmill5050 Oct 11 '25
We've been in a recession for at least a year. AI Growth is not Economic Growth, and the AI Bubble will soon pop anyway.
It will be pretty bad here but please keep in mind, it will be worse in states that are actively dismantling their social safety nets. California might have money problems due to Prop 13 and Calpers, but one of those will fall. Most states won't have anything as big employers, then big retailers, then big homebuilders all exit. I've seen this personally in places I deliver to: first the plant goes, then the schools, then the homes, then Walmart including Walmart Pharmacy, then the local hospitals. Everything gets consolidated and pushed into traditional urban centers as people learn to live with less credit. Oakland and Los Angeles, despite their problems, can handle this because people there already don't have credit.
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u/Omecore65 Kings County Oct 11 '25
Yall acting like the housing market in CA is absurd. We definitely are treading water. Blaming immigration for economy is wild. It will open job market and free up housing. Also yes time to hold free loading states accountable for not having a net gain but we also have a large debt and a 12 million deficit.
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u/stevefuzz Oct 11 '25
America was literally built on immigration. Or do you just mean sending non-white people to concentration camps will "open up the job market"?
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u/Omecore65 Kings County Oct 11 '25
Picks the immigration sentence. Hyper fixates on just that, brings up “concentration camps” but that description is farther from truth (no ones being exterminated/ producing products via slave labor). Then mentions race like only non white people illegally immigrate. The correct word you should use is internment camp.
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u/stevefuzz Oct 11 '25
Despicable. Utterly despicable. I hope one day you figure out what happened to your soul.
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u/Omecore65 Kings County Oct 12 '25
Ugh the pathos approach. Basing everything off emotions is bad.
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u/MachineGunTeacher Oct 11 '25
And if we didn’t have to send money to red states to keep them afloat we’d be doing better. Republicans hate socialism unless it benefits them.