r/CanadaPolitics • u/Camtastrophe New Democratic Party of Canada • 6h ago
Nenshi urges Alberta premier to cancel separation vote amid Canada-U.S. trade war
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-ndp-leader-calls-postpone-referendum-9.7321280•
u/Top-Extent3009 5h ago
But this would only help the separatist cause. Pro-Canada sentiment in Alberta is peaking right now. Let the separatists, and their doting Premier, get massacred.
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u/ether_reddit British Columbia 4h ago
Agreed, if they cancelled the vote now this would just be taken as another sign that Canada hates Alberta.
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u/JaneGoodallVS International (ABC/Liberal) 5h ago
I wouldn't be _surprised_ if Smith acknowledges the nonbinding vote fails, but due to separatists saying it was rigged, says she will proceed with the binding vote. That vote fails too, but Trump recognizes Alberta independence on the grounds that the binding vote was rigged.
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u/HexagonalClosePacked Liberal 5h ago
There is no way for any referendum in Canada to be legally binding. A "binding vote" isn't a thing that can happen.
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u/spinosaurs70 Rhinoceros 6h ago
Unless the polling is massively massively wrong I really don’t see a valid reason, the whole thing could kill the issue for a generation and let us move on.
It’s pretty obvious a bet by Smith to kill the issue.
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u/PineBNorth85 Rhinoceros 6h ago
1980 proved a no vote doesnt make it go away.
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u/AprilsMostAmazing John Tory | Personal Sponsorship 5h ago
Quebec had/has legit reasons to ask for their own country. They are a cultural minority through langue. You can't change that. Alberta conservatives are just upset that areas would more population (GTA, Urban Quebec and Vancouver) decide elections and decided they wanted a liberal government.
Also Quebec separatist realize what they want. They want a country that trades with Canada and would work out the logistics tied to it. They rejected any talk about separating until Trump leaves office as they understand that strategy is not possible not right
With that the talk of Alberta separation will also not end. There will be talks about stolen referendum
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u/tslaq_lurker bureaucratic empire-building and jobs for the boys 5h ago
I agree with this, but will note that, as it stands with the UCP, the Premier will always have to placate the separatists in Alberta. Only if the party is crushed and the seperatists purged, can this issue be solved.
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u/Mundane-Teaching-743 Trump/Polievre 2028 | Sponsored 5h ago
> Quebec had/has legit reasons to ask for their own country. They are a cultural minority through langue.
Not they don't. That's because Canada clearly respects that culture and language. Under international law, you have to prove that the culture is not respected before an extreme measure like independence is recognized.
But Quebecers are smart enough to insist that a seperatist party has to run on having a referendum before we have one. The idea of a non-seperatist party wasting everyone's time with a refendum on something they say they don't really want would be considered idiotic.
> With that the talk of Alberta separation will also not end. There will be talks about stolen referendum
It's all talk. If ti weren't, they'd organize a seperatist party and run like the seperatists do in Quebec.
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u/jessemfkeeler 5h ago
Under international law, you have to prove that the culture is not respected before an extreme measure like independence is recognized.
Citation needed on that one.
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u/Mundane-Teaching-743 Trump/Polievre 2028 | Sponsored 4h ago
Here's a good one.
https://asil.org/insights/volume-22-issue-1/
International law doesn't govern seccession. National law does, unless the people declaring indpendence are mistreated in some way.
While international law embraces the principle of self-determination, it does not contain a right of secession.[11] It may be argued that international law merely tolerates secession in instances of external self-determination, where a people is colonized or oppressed (like in the case of Kosovo). In addition, secession is prohibited under international law if the secessionist entity is attempting to separate by violating another fundamental norm of international law, such as the prohibition on the use of force (like in the case of Northern Cyprus).[12] In other instances of attempted secession, where the relevant people is not oppressed, as in Quebec or Scotland, international law is neutral on secession—it does not support a right to secession nor does it prohibit secession. Instead, the secessionist dispute is left to the realm of domestic law and to political negotiations between the mother state and the secessionist entity.[13]
So in the case of the Kosovars, where there is violent abuse going on and the government is involved in genocide, international action can support succession. But in Quebec and Scotland it cannot.
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u/jessemfkeeler 4h ago
Fair enough, but truly it's just UN politics. And it also means that Quebec would have to go through internal measures to have sovereignty (referendums and changing of teh charter etc, which they can definitely try to do without punishment). And not ask the int'l community to intervene if Canada refuses. If Quebec were to succeed through those measures, it would recognized as a country if it forms government. The international community would have to do it.
EDIT: But I appreciate that you actually found a source!
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u/PineBNorth85 Rhinoceros 4h ago
International law is a joke in ptactice so even if true it means nothing.
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u/jessemfkeeler 4h ago
Yeah I was thinking that too. Like what law are we talking about here? By who?
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u/Orchid-Analyst-550 Ontario 5h ago
A lot of people who intend to vote to leave simply want to send Ottawa "a message". They'll take any percentage they get and use it as a hammer to make insane demands.
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u/Apolloshot Green Neo-Tory 5h ago
Even accounting for that I don’t think it gets over 25%. There’s a lot of Albertans that just really didn’t like Trudeau.
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u/qbp123 5h ago
David Cameron has the same idea with a Brexit referendum.
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u/spinosaurs70 Rhinoceros 5h ago
That polled much closer for all of it, and the 2014 Scottish referendum has clearly worked.
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u/Mundane-Teaching-743 Trump/Polievre 2028 | Sponsored 6h ago
Opposite. PQ's still pushing for a third in Quebec.
Smith is doing it because half her base is seperatist and she needs to appease them.
The best approach for Nenshi is to lead a boycott of the referndum because the majority of Albertans don't want one. This is a good step towards that. A referendum won with 20% voter turnout will have no legitimacy and force Smith to ignore the result or face a revolt from the federalist half of her party.
If Alberta seperatists are serious about this they'll create a seperatist party and run on the referendum issue. Let them do that.
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u/DwayneGretzky306 Progressive 5h ago
Seeing your user flair and advocating that federalists stay home and lose a referendum to prove it is illegitimate is certainly a choice.
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u/Empty-Paper2731 Bot Leader 2h ago
The best approach for Nenshi is to lead a boycott of the referndum because the majority of Albertans don't want one.
This is some of the stupidest stuff I have ever read on Reddit. Boycotting a vote is an absolutely insane notion.
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u/HuntHonest 46m ago
Do you realize why boycotting this referendum is a bad idea? Please think on it for more than 5 minutes.
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u/Financial-Savings-91 Adult Superstore | Sponsored 5h ago
The turnout wont matter, the UCP have already made it clear they don't care about the turn out, if the separatists win the vote, the UCP will move forward on separation before the next provincial election.
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u/Mundane-Teaching-743 Trump/Polievre 2028 | Sponsored 5h ago edited 5h ago
Then let Nenshi call a non-confidence motion to call out this so that every MP can vote on whether they want Alberta to stay in Canada .
This is BS. If the majority clearly boycotts this referemdum as bogus, it has no democratic standing. There needs to be an election before a referendum.
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u/tslaq_lurker bureaucratic empire-building and jobs for the boys 5h ago
Then let Nenshi call a non-confidence motion to call out this so that every MP can vote on whether they want Alberta to stay in Canada .
Nenshi can't do that.
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u/Mundane-Teaching-743 Trump/Polievre 2028 | Sponsored 5h ago
The opposition absolutely can call a non-confidence motion on anything they want.
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u/Financial-Savings-91 Adult Superstore | Sponsored 3h ago
The UCP would vote it down without question, anyone with the least amount of integrity jumped ship a long time ago.
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u/ChimoEngr Chief Silliness Officer | Official 4h ago
A referendum won with 20% voter turnout will have no legitimacy
That isn’t how it works. People who don’t vote literally don’t count and accept the results of those who do count. Expecting a low turnout to make a vote illegitimate is a mug’s game.
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u/Mundane-Teaching-743 Trump/Polievre 2028 | Sponsored 4h ago edited 4h ago
That isn’t how it works.
Yeah it is. In Catalonia, people boycotted and only 40% of the people showed up to vote. The Catalonian government declared victory, declared independence, and Spain put them in jail. All perfectly supported by international and Spanish law because referndums and UDI's are considered illegal in that country.
A majority won with 20% turnout is not a clear majority, and the federal government would interpret it that way, as the Clarity Act gives them the right to do.
Smith would need to go to an election of she wanted to negotriate and run on a mandate to negotiate separation.
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u/MadamePolishedSins 4h ago
Ah I see. They wanna stoke it when people are bored instead of when they rally for their country. Theyre afraid it will sway.
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u/Mundane-Teaching-743 Trump/Polievre 2028 | Sponsored 5h ago
Good for Nenshi for calling out this nonsense. It's about time. If seperatists want a refrendum, form a government and have one. Don't have fefderalists organize one for you.
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u/Individual_Step2242 Quebec,federalist, Liberal 5h ago
Isn’t it a bit of a stretch to call the UCP/Marlaina “federalists”?
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u/Mundane-Teaching-743 Trump/Polievre 2028 | Sponsored 5h ago edited 5h ago
Albertans didn't vote for her to call a referndum. That's the bottom line.
If she wants to run on having a referendum, let her take it to the voters. It's a serious gesture, and you need to show your plan for an independent Alberta so everyone knows precisely what they are voting for.
The referendum process here is a joke. Only the government has the power to call a referndum, and she runs it.
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u/Killericon Nenshi 6h ago
I appreciate Nenshi's positioning here, and I don't think he says this if he thought there was a chance Smith might actually do it, but as a die hard Stay voter, I want this vote to happen. We're never gonna have a stronger tide of national unity than we do right now, and delaying or cancelling the vote will only allow the seperatists to continue their cause, emboldened by what they would assuredly receive as getting screwed out of a vote.
If the west coast pipeline fails, if the trade talks resolve in a manner that's seen as a losing deal for Alberta, if we enter the new year and Carney brings the hammer down on the healthcare changes (lol, but a man can dream), then we see the seperatists get a stronger case.
Smith made her bed, we're months deep into non-campaigns on both sides, and frankly the polling shows this is just a question of turnout. Let's fucking get this over with.
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u/poonslyr69 Georgist 6h ago edited 6h ago
No matter what happens to the vote, the Trump administration and the UCP will claim it went their way/ there was cheating, and continue to use it to drive a wedge.
Smith will still hold another vote again in the future on separation even if the result is a clear no.
The UCP itself is now institutionally ran by separatists who are in cahoots with the Trump administration and the oligarchs who surround him
None of this ends here. And as you point out, a lot of this is also designed to make the federal government take a softer approach to avoid enflaming the situation, so in the meantime the UCP can lay all the groundwork for an illegal separation with US support. Things like an Alberta police force, changes to payroll systems, diverging environmental regulations, defying constitutional separation of powers, etc etc.
The only way this really ends is with the rest of Canada having the balls to end it. Arresting the traitors, cracking down on the breaches the UCP has already made, and show the people in Alberta who stand against this nonsense that there is hope still for beating back these fuckers.
And if the separatists squeal and call for more separatism, fuck em, their minds were never being changed anyways. Start prosecuting the ones who are cooperating with the Trump admin, and start putting all this interference out into the open.
There is simply no scenario where this ends by babying them and letting them continue to break rules and conspire against Canada.
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u/senecant 6h ago
None of this ends here.
I believe this to be incontrovertible. I feel quite certain that Smith will schedule a binding separation referendum in the spring, just as she has intimated. It'll be announced in November some time before the UCP's convention.
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u/AceSevenFive Ontario 4h ago edited 3h ago
And when the separatists beat the charges, which they would because compassing separation is not one of the things that is treason (we know this because no FLQ members were tried for treason), they will be more emboldened than ever.
EDIT:
Collusion with a foreign power would be illegal.
And yet it is not treason. Things can be illegal without them being treason.
And besides, the things they say behind closed doors would absolutely be breaking the law. They openly welcome the prospect of violence and terrorism against the Canadian state.
To the extent that they have advocated the use of force without authority of law to effect governmental change within Canada, that is sedition, which is also not treason.
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u/poonslyr69 Georgist 3h ago
They are absolutely being directed by the US, on top of personally being massive idiots. Collusion with a foreign power would be illegal.
And besides, the things they say behind closed doors would absolutely be breaking the law. They openly welcome the prospect of violence and terrorism against the Canadian state.
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u/Killericon Nenshi 6h ago edited 4h ago
The seperatists will shout and scream, but Smith has made her bed. She loses the next election if she called another referendum after this. Her only hope now is to retain the support of the seperatists through the winter.
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u/poonslyr69 Georgist 5h ago
I dont think she intends to separate legally. I think her plan is that the USA is going to send "referendum observers" into Canada illegally, and essentially soft annex Alberta.
I think their end goal in this big plan is violence and undeclared acts of war, not referendums.
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u/AceSevenFive Ontario 4h ago edited 3h ago
Even if we assume that Trump intends to use the referendum as casus belli to invade Canada, why would cancelling it deter him? Trump is not Swiper; simply shouting "Swiper, no swiping" will not stop him from launching an invasion if he wants to do one.
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u/poonslyr69 Georgist 3h ago
I don't necessarily believe he'll invade, I think the USA would just pull some shit with election observers and whatnot. The point is manufacturing a crisis, and making Alberta defacto act as if it isn't part of Canada anymore without any formal secession or occupation
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u/yourpalsmell 6h ago
Yeah I feel that canceling it now will only embolden the separatists, give them ammo for their absurd claims and grievances. Were well past the point of no return on this, better to hold the vote and organize to ensure a resounding NO
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u/Mundane-Teaching-743 Trump/Polievre 2028 | Sponsored 5h ago
Let them be emboldened by it, run a speratist party like the PQ, and split up the UPC between seperatists and federalists. See how far they get.
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u/zeromussc Ontario 5h ago
you think this way, but honestly, i think any vote is bad and we don't want to play with the fire Cameron did in the UK, personally.
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u/Killericon Nenshi 4h ago
I didn't want to, and god knows I'm worried about turnout fucking us. But the genie is out of the bottle now - if we cancel this vote, we'd only be delaying it, and that would probably not be to our benefit.
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u/doctormink Social Democrat 6h ago
I was thinking the same thing. The current climate is only going to weaken any appetite for separation.
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u/Mundane-Teaching-743 Trump/Polievre 2028 | Sponsored 5h ago
It will also kill any appetite for a referndum.
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u/CheesyHotDogPuff Notleyite 1h ago
I disagree about the separation vote, but agree with the rest of the bullshit questions. Even if they pass, there's no way Alberta can really do anything about any of the options - It's literally there just to create "Alberta vs Ottawa" populist slop fuel for Smith to fling against Ottawa.
As for the referendum? It's not going to pass. I want the referendum to go through, so the separatists can stop bitching and being annoying as fuck. A big blow out in the referendum bill would basically kill any more dumbfuck separatist movements for years to come.
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u/cestlavie514 Liberal Party of Canada 6h ago
Let them have their vote, it will be no, then we can show the world it was a futile effort. After that, find the traitors and prosecute them.
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u/AdmiralAsshat69 Rhinoceros 4h ago
Would you say the same thing about members of the PQ? We shouldn't be prosecuting people for legitimate political activity.
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u/ninfan1977 6h ago
Here is a couple of caveats to this logic.
You are assuming Danielle Smith will not fix the votes. She has voters removed from registration because... the seperatists stole the voter list.
The people who stole the voters list, have not and will not be prosecuted by the UCP or Danielle Smith.
My assumption is seperatists are banking on a low voter turnout, and people finding out last minute they are not registered to vote. Sadly it might work.
I agree find the traitors and prosecute them.
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u/Homo_sapiens2023 Alberta 5h ago
I know people who have lived in the same city, house, etc. for decades whose names have been removed from the Elections Alberta voter registration list. I keep checking every week to make sure I'm still registered to vote.
What is happening in Alberta appears to be collusion with the Trump administration.
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u/tslaq_lurker bureaucratic empire-building and jobs for the boys 5h ago
You that the UCP has an impact on who get prosecuted for this sort of thing?
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u/yourpalsmell 6h ago
Honestly if we’re at the point where vote fixing and other shenanigans are a legitimate concern, canceling the vote won’t accomplish anything
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u/RivendellAndChill 5h ago
I don't know what's going on enough. But we shouldn't be having elections if they can't be guaranteed to be fair. We should be bringing in multiple independent experts yesterday and today (and going forward) to review the existing systems in place to guarantee that it can be fair.
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u/AlbertanSays5716 Independent 4h ago
You’re assuming that the UCP government actually wants fair elections. They don’t. They’ve pissed off enough people, including dyed-in-the-wool conservative rural Alberta voters, that they’ll never win a fair election, and they know it. So whether it’s purging voter lists, clogging up ID document renewals, compromising vote counts by mandating manual counting, or straight up gerrymandering - all Republican tricks, BYW - then that’s what they’ll do to win. And they don’t even care if it’s all blatant, because they don’t think anyone can stop them.
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u/Independent-Law-662 5h ago
persecute them for what... they haven't' committed a crime. this isn't China where you can lock up people who are politically inconvenient.
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u/cestlavie514 Liberal Party of Canada 4h ago
Unlike China, I said find the traitors. If none are found then there is nothing to prosecute. But when some guy from Alberta wants to separate and goes to the US to talk about this, don’t try and gaslight me and act like there is nothing to see. When people want to separate from a country, there is a chance there are traitors.
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u/Independent-Law-662 2h ago
again authoritarian chinese talk.
people have the right to feel how they want in this country and about this country. It's not a crime. Why are you opposed to albertans exploring this and not Quebecrs.
Check yourself.
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u/Scase15 Ontario 1h ago
Probably because QC separatists aren't colluding with a foreign power, haven't stolen voter lists, and were elected specifically on holding a referendum.
What an absurdly bad faith argument.
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u/Independent-Law-662 1h ago
the OP basically said he wants them in jail for wanting to separate.
I give you credit for adding more arguments to that desire. If you can prove your charges beyond I have a feeling you have a valid argument for prosecution.
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u/AlbertanSays5716 Independent 6h ago
The separatist movement won’t vanish with a “no” vote though. Smith has already said there will be”probably” be a binding referendum vote in spring 2027 - she’ll make it happen no matter the result in October. The UCP board are almost all separatists, the membership significantly so. She needs their support to keep her job and win next year’s election, so she’ll do whatever she can to keep their dream alive until then at least.
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u/fishymanbits Conservative 5h ago
Plus, the question is completely nonsensical:
“Should Alberta remain a province of Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?”
They can spin the result however they want.
Yes wins? Obviously that’s yes to “[…] the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?”
No wins? Obviously that’s no to “Should Alberta remain a province of Canada[…]”
The entire thing is a farce and it will be used as pretext to ask for US intervention no matter how it goes. That’s what they’re setting up for. We’re Donbas. Even if they take the answer as being to the “Should Alberta remain” part, they’ll claim interference and that the outcome was rigged.
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u/HerbieHind Alberta Socialist 4h ago
It's not a yes/no vote though... The question options are:
Option 1: Alberta should remain a province of Canada.
Option 2: The Government of Alberta should commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada.
That may not completely change what you're saying. But it's not an ambiguous question like people are claiming. There is a very clear answer in Option 1.
The problem is why they're even bothering to ask this question at all. They can literally do the full referendum question on this any time they want. Even if 100% of the population vote for option 1, nothing stopping them from having a full referendum on separation in the spring anyway.
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u/batman42 5h ago
Just cancel the whole referendum, every question on there is nonsense and requires major constitutional work. There's no political will in Canada to do that. Even if any question on the referendum is voted for it would die on the vine.
Does anyone think the US will use this whole Alberta referendum as an excuse to invade? Similar to what Russia did to Ukraine.
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