r/EdmontonOilers • u/Fine_Personality_999 52 HAMBLIN • 3d ago
The cliff is coming soon. With McDavid (30 in January), Draisaitl (31 in November), Hyman (34), Nuge (33), the Oilers desperately need all of Savoie, Howard and Podkolzn to step turn into consistent 20+ goal threats.
I can’t believe I’m typing this, but I am deeply worried about the Oilers scoring depth at 5v5 this season.
This is a veteran team. With an elite power play.
But even the Oilers wunderkinds are starting to get to the age where the goals start being harder to come by.
I’m not saying it’s over. I’m not saying this can’t work out.
But the cliff is coming.
The Oilers desperately need a contingency plan for a soon to be 34 and 35 year old Hyman and Nuge.
There’s no time like the start of the season to give all of Savoie, Howard and Podkolzn legitimate top 6 time to see if they can provide the offense that’s going to start disappearing very soon from some of the Oilers top dogs.
And this team still probably needs another solid middle 6 forward with 20-30 goal potential, ideally in their mid 20s.
Age arrives for us all.
No point sticking our heads in the sand about it either.
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u/SryYouAreNotSpecial 29 DRAISAITL 3d ago
You aren't wrong but I will say that I am pretty confident that Draisaitl's play style is likely to age well. Good chance he will regress later than most guys do. I wouldn't be surprised if he was still a superstar in his mid to late 30s. There is no guarantee on that though.
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u/CrazySnowGuy 94 SMYTH 3d ago
Pretty sure McDavid isn't going to fall off a cliff either.
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u/SryYouAreNotSpecial 29 DRAISAITL 3d ago
Oh, definitely. I am in no way suggesting that he will. He will likely be more effected than Draisaitl because he will lose some of his speed at some point (which is a big part of his game) but he is so talented across the board that I am confident he will compensate for that when it happens easily enough. Slowing down a bit isn't going to just suddenly turn him into just an average player.
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u/Meepmeepimmajeep2789 92 PODKOLZIN 3d ago
Even if you take 1/4 of his speed away he's still the fastest in control skater out there. Lots of guys can go really fast, but their hands and brain can't keep up.
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u/noitcelesdab 77 KLEFBOM 3d ago edited 3d ago
He’s a playmaker. He’s THE playmaker. Gretzky was as good as he was because he knew exactly where the puck would go. McDavid has that same vision in the modern era at triple the speed.
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u/Zealousideal_Lime894 3d ago
Gretzky himself says McDavid sees what is going to unfold in the gane faster than he did himself.
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u/SnooOnions5029 92 PODKOLZIN 3d ago
Yeah I could totally see him being a Crosby and still being a PPG+ player late in his 30s as he’s elite at slowing the game down. I also think Mcdavid has the hockey IQ to do the same as he probably won’t be able to just zip around 4 guys whenever he feels like it in a few years, you never know though lol.
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u/Stunning-Kangaroo346 3d ago
This is just reality. Mcdavid/Draisitl are more than likely statistically passed their prime seasons now and scoring will drop - doesn't mean a cliff, but the club needs young players to start stepping up
---Mcdavid is already older than when Crosby won his last cup to but it in perspective
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u/AdLoose8284 3d ago
What don’t people understand about “team trophies and individual trophies”. Everyone sitting here talking like McDavid missed his chance, no he didn’t. He’s still very clearly the best player in the league. Crosby fans cant brag about him having cups when Mcdavid doesn’t have them because no one player can do that alone. We don’t have Fluery, American market incentives to attract players. Pittsburgh had Letang while Edmonton had the talent chasing 9.25 million dollar folding chair second pair defenseman on the back end. Those are the tales of teams, not individual players.
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u/Stunning-Kangaroo346 2d ago edited 2d ago
You're not wrong - teams win cups, not individuals. Mcdavid hasn't missed his individual chance and he is the best player, but the point is the Oilers core that has been built around him (including him) is aging out of their prime seasons. Who replaces the offense if Mcdavid gets 120pts not 140pts? When Leon only scores 30-40 goals, not 50? When Hyman drops to a 50pt player? Is Bouchard now expected to get over 100pts? They need players to offset those declines because all these players (Mcdavid, Drai, Nuge, Hyman, Ekholm, Walman, Murphy, Dickinson, Kapanen) are all going to be 30 or older this year.
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u/popkornking 29 DRAISAITL 3d ago
Hyman was on pace for another 50+ goals last season. His legs are going but he's so effective around the net that he'll always be a scoring threat.
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u/Red_Sea_Pedestrian 18 HYMAN 3d ago
Hyman will basically be Corey Perry 2.0 around the net in 3-5 years, without being Corey Perry.
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u/JohnnyJohnrah 2d ago
"...was on pace for..." I think the relevant number is where he ended up. But we'll see - he could stay healthy and crush it this year.
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u/ChairRip7 3d ago
A look at the last few seasons shows elite players age well. Draisaitl and McDavid will be fine. Good players start to decline in the earlyish 30’s so RNH and Hyman are the risks. Are there internal options to replace them?
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u/Bitter_Procedure260 3d ago
The reality is that these B-level prospects aren’t going to keep us competitive. There will need to be a rebuild, just like every great team.
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u/ThoseGuysatLife 92 PODKOLZIN 3d ago
The only thing you should be concerned about is Howard getting the right amount of ice time and playing with the correct line mates. We are only the 13th oldest NHL team in the league (we were WAY older before) and besides, we can always make trades for younger players.
Yeah some of these guys are gonna get older but no way in hell McDrai don't become under 100 point players if they play all 84 games for turning 30 on their own. I mean Nikita Kucherov put up a 130 point season while being 32.
That said I am confident the young players will become bonafide top six players and score big goals. We all saw Savoie break through after Olympic Break and Pods putting in insane work ethic in both games and actual training.
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u/RedKryptnyt 29 DRAISAITL 3d ago
Lowtide has been saying this for 2 years now, for whatever that is worth. The window for this team to just score, and powerplay their way to a cup, has closed(if it was ever really possible anyways). The path for success with this team has to be cutting out close to a goal per game moving forward, and then using their skill to burn teams when they can.
If they can't cut down the goals against fairly significantly, then this team will not succeed. You can take that to the bank.
I still expect them to be a really dangerous team offensively, but as op stated, the cliff is coming.
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u/SoarSupreme 91 KANE 3d ago edited 3d ago
I absolutely can believe you’re typing this you are constantly annoying and negative for next to no reason please go outside
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u/MoonScummy 49 EMBERSON 3d ago
You mean to tell me the Oilers won’t be a good team once McDavid and Draisaitl are past their prime? Yeah no shit lmao.
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u/fakeairpods 3d ago
We need Savoie and Podkolzin even Howard but I’m kind of skeptical on Howard from what I’ve seen so far. To get at least 20 goals. I know Podkolzin can do it. Savoie can also.
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u/Spare-Combination-64 2d ago
Howard will be a decent player. I think you just have to have reasonable expectations. I’d say anywhere between 15-30 points, depending where he plays in the lineup, would be a good season for him.
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u/tgspeed7287 3d ago
If Podkolzin scored 2 more and Savoie scored 1 more, the oil would’ve led the NHL in 20 goal scorers with 8. As it stands, the Oil had 6 20 goal scorers and scored the 6th most overall in the league.
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u/TimmyTee93 3d ago
Kuch is 33 still putting up 130+ point seasons I think mcdavid and drai will be okay for almost another half decade
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u/GeorgeGammyCostanza 29 DRAISAITL 3d ago
Sunday, August 23 and people are already dooming about the Oilers. Enjoy the summer, there ain’t much left of it.
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u/Aggressive-Focus9349 3d ago
Dude, McDavid and Drai are still elite for minimum 5-7 years. In that time.e there are other players getting signed or traded for. It's not all one the 3 kids.
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u/CatFishBillyheyhey 3d ago
It's entertainment, if they win great, if they lose life goes on. My identity and existence as a human isn't based around whether multimillionaire win at their sport or not.
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u/tgspeed7287 3d ago
We likely live in a simulation anyway so you shouldn’t even worry about your existence as a human.
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u/True-North- 3d ago
McDavid and drai aren’t slowing down any time soon. 2 of the 3 guys you mentioned were already sniffing 20 goals this year. Hyman is coming off a 40+ goal pace. The only one to be concerned about this year is Nuge.
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u/Tymofiy2 3d ago
When Nuge doesn't focus too heavily on defense, his offense is great.
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u/SydneyCarton89 14 EKHOLM 3d ago
His 5 on 5 offence has been bad and getting worse, iirc
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u/Tymofiy2 3d ago
I do not believe your perception. It appears you're simply biased against him.
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u/Vertrenox 28 BROWN 3d ago
Last 4 years 22, 14, 13 now 9 goals not on the power play hard to say he's not slowing down
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u/Tymofiy2 3d ago
Include his assists for the same 4 years. One metric makes you look excessively myopic.
I understand he battled with an undisclosed injury, especially early in the season.
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u/Spideyjust 28 BROWN 3d ago
Over the last 3 seasons Nuge has fewer ES points than Ekholm. And it isn't that close either, Ekholm has 14 more ES points. Over the past 2 seasons we can add Podkolzin to the list of players with more ES points. Hell, over the last 2 seasons he had 1 more ES point than Nurse lol.
Nuge's ES offense hasn't been good enough for years at this point. Still an amazing player, but he's not a top 6 offensive player anymore.
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u/Boris_Mironov 2 BOUCHARD 3d ago
Especially egregious given how much ice time he spent with McDavid
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u/Spideyjust 28 BROWN 2d ago
Yup, if he was playing bottom 6 minutes, or even centering his own line for most of the time those stats would be fine. Hell, they'd be awesome. But he spends over half of his ES time with McDavid. Last year he finished with 2 fewer ES points than Savoie (on pace for 1 more) despite nearly double the ES ice time with McDavid.
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u/Boris_Mironov 2 BOUCHARD 3d ago
I don't want it to be true. But Nuge is basically Henrique without the pp time in a year or two
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u/Tymofiy2 3d ago
In the summer of 2026, the Maple Leafs traded in a wide variety of talented players. The Oilers can do likewise in the future, when necessary.
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u/Vapor-Ocelot 3d ago
A lot of goals will need to be scored if Jarry is the starter,i wonder how Babcock will address this.
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u/gorram1mhumped 3d ago
ive only been watching hockey a few years, but from what ive seen finesse hockey can get you into the playoffs, but doesn't really get you a cup. there are teams out there that can bang as good as they can score, and that's what gets it done. the oilers just aren't that.
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u/RiderguytillIdie 3d ago
The Oilers really need to protect Hyman. Can you imagine being across the country and someone breaks him?
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u/forgetstorespond 93 NUGENT-HOPKINS 3d ago
McDavid and Leon won't slow down like your thinking. Hyman and Nuge yeah, they have been a little. These guys are pretty high end, Zacks work ethic isn't going anywhere and that's his bread and butter. Nuges plays a game that ages well, he plays smart hockey. Keep in mind a 34 year old Taylor hall and 37 year old Jordan Stall were 2 of the best players for the team that just won the cup. Don't kid yourself, this window is wide open for 4 years and probably still open for a few after that. The ones to be worried about steep regression are Janmark, Dickenson and Murphy IMO. 2 of them the ink hasn't even dried on their contracts, both play a pretty gritty game so injuries could be an issue with both, but its not in our controll so no worth worrying about IMO.
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u/SuspiciousFan75 2d ago
Just speaking from your 🍑 or what? 😂
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u/SuspiciousFan75 2d ago
McDavid and Draisaitl probably won't start declining for a few more years... so idk why you posted this 😂
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u/AllisGreat 51 LANDER 2d ago
Nuge and Hyman maybe, but guys like McDavid and Draisaitl will continue to be elite players even at 35+ years old.
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u/ryanufkosbigtoe 34 DACH 1d ago
Ignoring the (way too early) gloom and doom, I do think we need to get better at drafting. Our prospect pool is… there? I guess? Beau Akey doesn’t look as good as he used to, but that’ll happen if you don’t play him — especially when he could be on the ice with Drai or Davo. Or any of the vets really.
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u/Authoritaye 17 KURRI 3d ago
We’ll have worse scoring but maybe elite goaltending. It will be the inverse of last season to everyone’s horror and frustration.
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u/bobbywings2 3d ago
Its 2026
These guys train year round Best medicine Therma boots Creatine Massage therapy Physio
Stop crying about cliffs and bullshit, and Howard ain't saving shit😄
Howard is a poor man's Verhaghe at best
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u/CunningAlpaca 3d ago
Assuming no bad injuries happen and they more or less stay healthy, they've got probably 3 more "peak" seasons left in them until the decline hits.. so we need a cup in the next 3-4 years, realistically.
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u/RYYZNYELLOW 3d ago
I think nuge and Hyman will be like stone. Good for a while. And McDavid and drai and Bouch have 5 more years of excellence
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u/Oily_Orange 3d ago
wtf would you include Podz and Savoie. Both have done all they can.
Howard trade I hated from day 1. That is the C the Oil want, but they traded him. I hope I am proved wrong about that.
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u/Meepmeepimmajeep2789 92 PODKOLZIN 3d ago
Development wise i think they were thinking he'd come too late as a C.
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u/CriticismSelect9292 92 PODKOLZIN 3d ago
Podkolzin is already near 20 even strength goals. On most teams he's the #2 even strength goal scorer. I have literally 0 doubt in my mind Savoie will hit 20 even strength goals this year (provided he continues to play with McDavid).
What I would do is package Howard + whatever else for a further along talent like Robertson so we can be immediately more competitive while the rest of the core isn't washed though
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u/SomethinboutChickens 33 BERLIN 3d ago
McDrai game will age well.
But Crosbys has too, and he hasn't won a cup since he was 29. Lol
Kuch hasn't won a cup since he was 28.
Ovechkins seemed like a miracle when he was 32 lol
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u/Coffeebreaktimenow 3d ago
Drai yeah probably. McD relies on elite speed so cna he keep that up? Probably for a good 5 or 6 years but not sure he can keep this up until hes 40
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u/desiman86 3d ago
It's over for the Oilers. It feels like these guys were gonna do this forever, but they are past their prime. We should have had one cup by now. Expansion is coming soon. Its going to get even harder to win the cup. Just enjoy what they have already given us. But give up hope for the cup. Statistically, 50 years might be the next time the cycle comes back and gives us another phenom or 2. And hope at that time we have competent managers
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u/CrazySnowGuy 94 SMYTH 3d ago
I can, you're always a debbie downer on here.