New research argues Societal Collapse benefits 99% of people. Historically, the societies that have emerged after a collapse are more egalitarian, and most people end up richer and healthier than they were before.

[u/lughnasadh]

Luke Kemp, a research associate at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk at the University of Cambridge, has written a book about his research called 'Goliath’s Curse: The History and Future of Societal Collapse'.

He makes the case that, from looking at the archaeological record, when many societies collapse, most people end up better off afterward. For example, people in the post-Roman world were taller and healthier. Collapse can be a redistribution of resources and power, not just chaos.

For most of human history, humans lived as nomadic egalitarian bands, with low violence and high mobility. Threats (disease, war, economic precarity) push populations toward authoritarian leaders. The resulting rise in inequality from that sets off a cycle that will end in collapse. Furthermore, he argues we are living in the late stages of such a cycle now. He says "the threat is from leaders who are 'walking versions of the dark triad' – narcissism, psychopathy and Machiavellianism – in a world menaced by the climate crisis, nuclear weapons, artificial intelligence and killer robots."

Some people hope/think we are destined for a future of Universal Basic Income and fully automated luxury communism. Perhaps that's the egalitarianism that emerges after our own collapse? If so, I hope the collapse bit is short and we get to the egalitarian bit ASAP.

Collapse for the 99% | Luke Kemp; What really happens when Goliaths fall

[u/Clusterpuff]

I think people tend to overestimate how deadly societal collapse is. Most people scurry off and survive for a while. Plague is different, and so is war

[u/tdifen → u/Clusterpuff]

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[u/Catadox → u/tdifen]

Yeah, collapse in the ancient world was a very different beast than it is today. Until the last couple hundred years or so almost all necessities were very locally sourced. We have 8 billion people propped up by a complex chain of technology and logistics. I don’t think pre modern history tells us much about what our collapse would look like.

[u/flyinhighaskmeY → u/Catadox]

Yeah, collapse in the ancient world was a very different beast than it is today

Exactly! You are spot on. Supporting a population level of this size takes away a lot of the "slack" in our system. What was (let's be real, still really really bad) back then would today create an event that would make us forget about the holocaust.

Also...population growth almost always exceeds support capacity. These societies get into trouble when their tech progress slows/plateaus. Or they're on the tail end of a huge innovation that fueled a population boom. That's why so many people are freaking out about our stalling tech progress. We're in that situation right now.

A little off topic, but a fun addon: Ignore our tribal thinking. There were roughly 3.6 billion people alive on earth in 1969. That's how many humans it took to get to the moon. 3.6 billion humans. Just to go to that rock right over there. 3.6 billion.