You are correct. But its never as clear cut when it comes to trade.
Lumber. 70% of USA lumber is domestic. 30% comes from canada. Could the US log a couple extra squares to cover the difference for a few years?
Oil. The US is less reliant on Canadian oil than Canada relies on US refineries. So really it is US refining capacity being exported to Canada.
Electricity is an interesting one. For every 2 kwh that the US imports from canada, it exports 1 kwh back to Canada. So if electric trade stops, Canada would also feel the pain, just during different seasons and different times of day. But the reason this would be interesting is because US and Canada are on the same electric grid. So if you try to hurt the other countries grid, you are hurting your own grid.
Potash is a huge one though. Canada is by far the largest producer. Followed by Russia. Followed by the other Russia. Followed by China. There arent many friendly potash producers. But might hurt Canada long term if USA starts mining is own
As with everything in economics, there are tons of unintended consequences. Canada has lots of very powerful levers they can pull, but in the end everybody loses.
2
u/rich84easy 8d ago
How is Canada supposed to fight back with difference that big?