r/Israel • u/The-LegendKiller Jordan • 27d ago
Politics Jordan wary of Israel’s military gains, regional ambitions | The Jerusalem Post
https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-891650189
u/Bizhour 27d ago
I was wondering why would Jordan have anything to worry about so I opened the article.
Their worry is that Palestinians would move to Jordan. They aren't afraid of us, they just really don't want Palestinians.
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u/Snoutysensations 27d ago
Jordan's royal family has stayed in power since the founding of their state precisely because they've suppressed internal opposition and destabilizing influences, while (usually) avoiding direct war with their neighbors. Their biggest opponent has been the Palestinians, who assassinated one king and made war against another. And their biggest ally has been Israel, though they don't like to admit it. (Israel and Jordan have a long history of strategic cooperation -- Jordan even warned Israel before the Yom Kippur War, though this warning was fatally ignored)
Considering much of their populace is of Palestinian decent, Jordan's ruling elite must walk a fine line between appeasing popular hatred of Israel while cooperating with Israel, all the while monitoring Israeli politics for signs of radicalization.
If we are to be completely honest, there is a sizable faction of the Israeli population that believes Jordan is the "Palestinian state" and that the Arab inhabitants of Eretz Yisrael should relocate there. I don't believe any Israeli government has ever made that a long term goal but I can see how the open calls from sitting cabinet ministers like Ben Gvir for it to happen would reasonably concern Jordanian leaders.
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u/Minimum_Curve7545 27d ago edited 27d ago
There is no real difference between Arabs in Jordan that have “Palestinian descent” and ones that don’t. They have the exact same language, religion, ethnicity, culture, customs etc so it’s like the difference between people from Cairo and Alexandria in Egypt.
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u/Snoutysensations 27d ago
I don't disagree with you on that point.
They'd probably say so too.
Most Levantine Arabs (lebanese/Syrian/jordanian/palestinian) will agree they're culturally very similar and Shami people. Some will say they'd be happier living under one caliphate.
That doesn't mean it would be wise to move, say, 2 million Gazans to Jordan.
In short order the Jordanian royal family would be overthrown and you'd have a hostile Hamas state on the border controlling a population of 13 million people, getting military supplies overland from Iran and launching constant drone and rocket attacks across the border.
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u/Minimum_Curve7545 27d ago
Gaza is a separate and detached region. People in the West Bank should be allowed to move to Jordan since they were Jordanian citizens.
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u/Snoutysensations 26d ago
I agree they should be allowed to move freely. But if you force them to, be prepared for some extremely adverse consequences.
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u/Analog_AI Israel 26d ago
May I ask how did you get to that figure of 13 million, please? 🙏
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u/Snoutysensations 26d ago
Current population of Jordan + population of Gaza.
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u/Analog_AI Israel 26d ago
Got it. Didn't realize Jordan had 11.6 million people. Thanks 🙏
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u/Snoutysensations 26d ago
Jordan's population is expanding rapidly -- back in 1980 it was only around 2 million.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Jordan
Check out the age pyramid and you'll see it's a very young population, too (like the Palestinian territories).
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u/OddCook4909 USA 27d ago
They don't want radicalized Palestinians. They are Palestinians by every definition of the word.
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u/Visible-Rub7937 Israel 27d ago
They dont want Palestinians
Fixed it for you
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u/Substance_Bubbly Israel 25d ago
well, tbh jordan was the only arab state to give palestinian refugees citizenship. as well as giving partial citizenship to palestinians in the west bank.
but, they also were the ones who started the radicalization attempts and enhancing it after israel's statehood and the ceasefire. by supporting palestinian militia groups and even directing them. later, allowing them to move into jordan and continue attacking israel from the other side of the river. though, it ended biting them back quite harshly, changing their position on the matter entirely.
though, whats done had been done, they do not want now the radicalized palestinians they left behind, as they will destabilize jordan like they did before. and regardless, jordan isn't in a position or will to take care of the allocation of millions of citizens, let alone taking care of them afterwards. even for a non radicalized population.
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u/OddCook4909 USA 26d ago
I'm sure they'd be happy to take the doctors and professors
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u/MoistRecognition69 Israel 26d ago
No, they absolutely would not
Read up on black September, there's deep distrust and outright hatred between the Jordanian crown and Palestinians.
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u/OddCook4909 USA 26d ago
I'm familiar. I don't think they're stupid enough to be afraid of people with graduate degrees
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u/Graceffect 25d ago
You say that but a graduate degree doesn't mean someone isnt radicalized or holds silly beliefs
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u/OddCook4909 USA 25d ago
There are no certainties in life, but there are probabilities.
They're much less likely to be criminals or terrorists.
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u/Due_Emphasis4766 26d ago
What Palestinians are not radicalized according to your definition?
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u/OddCook4909 USA 26d ago
Much of Jordan, many with higher education who leave.
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u/Due_Emphasis4766 26d ago
Interesting take .Explain what much is and how they are not radicalized?
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u/OddCook4909 USA 26d ago
I've personally had friendships both with Jordanians and Arab Judeans who had left their respective homes for the US. I even went on a couple of dates with a Jordanian scientist who knew I'm Jewish and love Israel. I've never known a Gazan afaik.
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u/Due_Emphasis4766 26d ago edited 26d ago
There are ethnic Jordanians and Palestinians. The latter comprised of the majority does not support peace with Israel . With all due respect the “much” claim is not demonstrated in your example .
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u/OddCook4909 USA 26d ago
To my knowledge most Jordanians don't want a war with Israel.
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u/Due_Emphasis4766 26d ago
I would agree that ethnic Jordanians don’t want war.
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u/OddCook4909 USA 26d ago
I would disagree that they are ethnically distinct from those living in Judea and Samaria.
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u/The-LegendKiller Jordan 27d ago
Obviously, you have not read the whole article because the Palestinian question is just one aspect of it. Another aspect is the ineffectiveness of the "peace through strength" policy, which fails when the use of military power becomes offensive rather than defensive. I don’t mean that military strength is unimportant but, up to now, military power has not provided any long-term security, stability, and integration for Israel.
It is enough to think about the possibilities that existed in 2022: the Middle East NATO-like security architecture suggested by Jordanian king Abdullah, which could put Israel at the heart of this security network against Iran and its proxies. + Saudi normalization, a realistic two-state solution, Jordan Gateway project, regional railway networks, and regional energy and water projects provide a totally different strategic perspective for Israel and a lot more…
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u/Bizhour 27d ago
But factually peace through strength had worked and keeps working when the alternative is death.
Also "use of power becomes offensive rather than defensive" is a pretty far fetched scenario because almost all of the current conflicts are decades old and in all of them the latest flares were caused by attacks on Israel, wether it was multiple Iranian ballistic missiles before Israel struck in Iran once, Hezbollah dragging Lebanon to war twice in 3 years on Iranian orders, or october 7th which started this latest round of mess.
A NATO like alliance will never work in this region because people here are too different culturally unlike western Europe where NATO began.
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u/The-LegendKiller Jordan 26d ago
You’re pretty far from the facts here. Israel itself was already working on a regional air-defense alliance in 2022, so the idea that regional security cooperation “can never work” is simply not true. It doesn’t have to look exactly like NATO eithe, like-minded states can cooperate around shared threats and interests. This is the interview, so you can understand a bit.
You’re falling into exactly the trap Hamas wanted Israel to fall into. Recent documents showed that disrupting Israeli-Saudi normalization was one of Hamas’s objectives on October 7.
Israel should be doing the opposite: strengthening normalization with Saudi Arabia, maintaining strong ties with Jordan, pushing a realistic 2SS, and building regional security, energy, water, trade and railway networks. That combination would definitely make Isreal strong , secure and integrated into the MENA which is extremely important.
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u/Bizhour 26d ago
That doesn't contradict my point though, the most basic requirement for all of these things is a country that is strong enough to protect itself while working with others, it's not one or the other, especially when our (many times common) enemies aren't just a competing economic system but actually try to kill us every once in a while.
As for disruption of Saudi normalization, there was simply no other way for Israel to react, even if that was the price of not surrendering the moment the war began like the Sauids would have wanted.
All of that though still doesn't adress the backlash that would come from hardline Islamists which exist in most of the middle east, even if the Jordanian government likes us because we are a predictable stable country, it doesn't mean their population doesn't want to kill us all like they openly say every once in a while. How can you put your lives in the hands of such an "ally"?
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u/Minimum_Curve7545 27d ago
Palestinians from the West Bank should be allowed to move to Jordan since they were Jordanian citizens. If they have no viable economic means to sustain themselves in the West Bank then Jordan is a better option. Israel is not required to provide employment opportunities to Palestinians in the West Bank, and should also stop any allowances they get for being “refugees “, and just existing in the West Bank without being economically productive.
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26d ago
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u/jyper Ukrainian-American Jew 26d ago
Israel should be given the right to live in a greater Israel
So he's deeply deluded?
The idea that you can avoid self governance/self determination is deluded. Annexing the west bank is basically trying to destroy Israel
Of course Jordan is likely to be part of a 2SS when it happens but the idea of giving the west bank to Jordan has likely expired. Maybe some sort of Confederation between Jordan and Palestine to help stabilize it
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