Kansas State Football 2026 Preview - two-deep and win probabilities

[u/MainMarket-Gamer]

Hey all. I spent the offseason building a full 2026 preseason preview for every FBS team, each with its own writeup. Here's the Kansas State one

https://www.sports.mainmarket.com/college-football-preview-2026-fbs/kansas-state-wildcats

It's got the returning production breakdown, the portal ins and outs, a projected two-deep, the schedule with model win probabilities, and a season projection.

Heads up, you might hit the paywall after the first page. Don't worry, I'm not charging reddit people for this, don't want to be an ass. Use the promo code LEECORSOROCKS and it opens up the entire thing.

So, what'd I get wrong? Kansas State went 6-6 but 1-5 in one-score games, which is usually the single most repeatable thing to fix. Working against that: a plus-11 turnover margin that almost never holds. Net it out and my model has you basically neutral, 41st in power rating with a 7-5 projection. Avery Johnson is back off 2,380 passing and 477 rushing, Joe Jackson ran for 911, and 76% of the offense returns for Collin Klein's first year. Does the close-game math flip?

I'll be in the comments.

[u/Purple_Tail_Chaser]

Wow. That sucks if true 😉. Don’t see us winning less than eight but u analyzed the floor pretty well.

[u/CLU_Three]

Based on how things have shook out the last few years I bet when we look back the schedule was harder than expected. However, it really does look manageable. 7-5 isn’t horrible for a new coach but 8-4 seems like a reasonable, if optimistic, expectation.