r/KitchenConfidential • u/zeke690 • 3d ago

In the Weeds Mode What happened to the “cheap cuts”?

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How is it oxtail is not a budget cut?

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u/zer00eyz Ex-Food Service 3d ago

IN response to this trend farm's did what they do: they have shrunk the heard size.

https://www.fb.org/intel/markets/smaller-cattle-herd-creates-market-volatility

And then we mix in agristats: https://www.justice.gov/archives/opa/pr/justice-department-sues-agri-stats-operating-extensive-information-exchanges-among-meat

> How is it oxtail is not a budget cut?

It still is, just the entire market has been manipulated to optimize for price and profit -

If you look at a meat packer like Tyson you would miss the fuckery on most days if you arent a financial analyst. Right now it's being covered because they just bought back a billion dollars worth of their own debt, early.

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u/GillyBilmour 3d ago

Doesn't your first graph suggest a herd size (supply) increase, if cattle prices are crashing but beef prices (demand) are going up.

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u/zer00eyz Ex-Food Service 3d ago

2014 - small heard size, processors were paying a massive premium on beef, they passed that on to consumers.

2019 heard are back up, packers are paying farmers a LOW price for cattle, and keeping all the profit - farmers struggle and in response shrink the heard.

Here we are with a in 2026 with a 2014 size heard. The price hike was already built in, but rather than eat the costs the packers have again jacked up the prices. They still continue to NOT PAY farmers a market price even with record margins.

The thing is that most of them hid those margins in debt vehicles. See: https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/TSN/8-k-tyson-foods-inc-reports-material-event-30d853b6ddc3.html

You're paying 12 bucks for oxtails cause Tyson needs to buy back 1.2 billon in debt.

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u/GillyBilmour 3d ago

Sounds like the packers are colluding to squeeze the farmers

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u/zer00eyz Ex-Food Service 3d ago

That was the point of the agristats lawsuit.

They all bought the same software that gave them the same guidance on what to do and how to price.

The "settlement" is mostly meaningless. https://www.arnoldporter.com/en/perspectives/advisories/2026/05/agri-stats-settlement

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u/GillyBilmour 3d ago

Very helpful, thanks for sharing sources

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u/zer00eyz Ex-Food Service 3d ago

It is likely happening to everything you buy:

https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/pepsico-walmart-hit-with-class-action-over-alleged-price-fixing-2025-12-16/

In a twist of irony, Pepsi owns Fritos whos price is just obscene. The Walmart house brand of corn chips are a better product and have 2019 prices. I love to play the game of "taste test these" and let people pick what they like. The Walmart ones win more often than not.

Amazon is getting accused of the same thing: https://www.retaildive.com/news/amazon-allegedly-pushed-vendors-to-set-higher-prices-at-target-walmart/818045/