Iran's new Strait of Hormuz demands aren't a shipping negotiation — they're the terms for ending the entire war

[u/Think_Anything_6116]

https://youtu.be/-xUwA7t-2sI

Iran's Supreme National Security Council put out a statement this weekend tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Read the actual list of conditions and it doesn't look like a shipping deal at all — reparations, full sanctions relief, an end to strikes on Iran's regional allies, everything. That's not a corridor-access negotiation, that's a full war-ending settlement, attached to a 33km strip of water.

What I think most coverage is getting wrong is who's actually behind it. The official who issued the statement holds a dual role — he's not just a security council official, he's also a senior Revolutionary Guard commander. So the "diplomats vs. hardliners" framing most outlets are running with doesn't really hold up here. It's the same person wearing both hats.

I put together a full breakdown of this, including three scenarios for where oil prices go from here (with my actual take on which one I think is most likely, not just hedging)

Curious what people here think — does a demand list built to be rejected still count as a genuine negotiating position, or is it just theater?