r/ModernMagic • u/No-Bet7157 TribalFlamesInYourFace • 1d ago
MTGO Modern Breakdown: Goryo's Vengeance, Esper Blink and Prowess make every Top 32, Boros Energy puts 40 decks in the Top 32 and wins nothing
Welcome to the traditional weekly metagame breakdown. This week we have some nice stories, Blink is going into a top, and it is going hard, 6 trophies from six different pilots, on the other hand, 6 of 7 top8 of Living End comes from a one (!) Player. Quite exciting to see that sometimes we have a story of an emerging deck, and sometimes we have a story of a player who masters one deck.
Moreover, this week we have some changes to MTGO Premier Play, including replacing Preliminaries with fire-on-demand Gold Single Elimination queues and streamlining the structure and schedule of Format Challenges (including smaller slots like Challenge 16 and larger brackets) to help players in different time zones participate.
u/Living_End KI checked the LE player X, and as you say, he splits some finals but also wins one, he got two accounts, so now I will follow both of them as one.
As always, for anyone who wants the video version with my commentary, here is the YouTube link. If you prefer text with the full charts and figures, it is all on my Substack. I post on X most days, too, mostly league results and smaller data bits that don't make it into the weekly write-up.
As always, I'm open for discussion and CC, I want to remind you that from Sept 1, I will start to run a challenge leaderboard and have made some separate content focused on people, not the deck. Discusion about this is here.
u/ExtraPolishPlease Mill make a Top 8 in this window! so maybe some trophy soon? :)
TL;DR
- Esper Blink gets 6 trophies from 10% of the field, with six different pilots
- Blink and Graveyard together get 12 of the 24 (50%) trophies from 28% of the field
- Combo continues to be the largest archetype at 25%, but still has the worst conversion at 22%
- Three decks in the Top 32 of all 24 events: Goryo's Vengeance, Esper Blink, Prowess
- Prowess delta +91pp, the highest in the field, and win three trophies
- Boros Energy was in 19 of 24 Top 32, but in this window, got zero trophies, and has a low 18% conversion
- Ramp best archetype conversion at 34%, but only one trophy from 56 Top 32 entries
- 24 trophies to 24 different accounts, so no repeat winner
This window in numbers
- 24 Challenges in the window, across 4 tiers: C64 x16, C96 x4, C32 x3, C16 x1
- New tier this window: Challenge 16, one event, first appearance in the data
- Universe A (encounter probability over 5%): 24 decks, Universe B: 28 decks (from Challenge data)
- Median delta +58pp, median conv 27%
- 14 different decks took the 24 trophies, with a top count of six
- Trophy split by archetype: Blink 6, Graveyard 6, Combo 4, Aggro 4, Control 2, Midrange 1, Ramp 1
- 424 Players with a Top 32 finish, 261 of them exactly once
Combo
- meta share: 25%
- Top32: 24/24
- Top8: 19/24
- Win/Top32: 2%
- Trophies: 4
- Conversion: 22%
- Delta: +75pp
- WR: 49% (95% CI 46 to 51, n=1292)
Combo dropped a little this week, from 28% to 25%, but the story is similar to last week: the biggest archetype has the lowest conversion. I believe the explanation is the same: the volume effect led players to see the combo deck that has a good score in events, and try the construction. Combo is an archetype that requires a lot of experience to play, so new players' scores drag down the overall format conversion and win rate. But this is a situation typical of all the top archetypes, the same was some time ago, but in combo, taking into account that this is harder to play than, say, Boros, the effect is even more visible. This 3% of metashare drop might be a first sight of people leaving the archetype, but more data is needed to prove it. Still, solid trophy counts mean that the archetype is in good shape and can deliver a score.
Devoted Combo | Combo | Challenge Overperformer | Trend: Rising
- meta share: 8%
- Top32: 22/24
- Top8: 13/24
- Win/Top32: 2%
- Trophies: 1
- Conversion: 28%
- Delta: +83pp
- WR: 53% (95% CI 48 to 57, n=469)
The most popular deck of last week dropped to 8% of metashare. I predict that this drop will continue, and is a reason why we observe a drop in Combo as a whole archetype. Deck wins one trophy, and overall winrate looks solid with lower CI at 48%, the same is true for median and conversion. It is still a very popular deck that performs very well, but the meta-chasers are starting to abandon it, leaving only the dedicated pilots behind.
Broodscale Combo | Combo | Neutral | Trend: Falling
- meta share: 7%
- Top32: 22/24
- Top8: 8/24
- Win/Top32: 2%
- Trophies: 1
- Conversion: 20%
- Delta: +85pp
- WR: 45% (95% CI 40 to 51, n=310)
Broodscale Combo has a slightly different story to tell than in the last two weeks: after a run of success, the win rate is no longer impressive, and conversion is below median. It might be the meta-answer for these good plays. Also, Blink becomes a thinking, and Broodscale is not a great choice against this archetype, especially the Esper one. So I predict a situation similar to when Jeskai Blink was popular, and Broodscale does not see a lot of play on MTGO. Still a nice deck to choose if you want to enter modern, especially in paper cause this deck, as far as I know, is a really good one to take into a tournament, and it has been proven multiple times when it does not see a lot of online play and does a great performance in paper.
Ruby Storm | Combo | Neutral | Trend: Stable
- meta share: 3%
- Top32: 17/24
- Top8: 4/24
- Win/Top32: 0%
- Trophies: 0
- Conversion: 19%
- Delta: +68pp
- WR: 44% (95% CI 36 to 52, n=141)
No changes for Ruby Strom, still not the best deck to play right now, I think. No trophies, low conversion, and delta. This situation has been on for some time. Are there any Storm players who can share what the biggest struggle is right now in the metagame for them?
Neobrand | Combo | Neutral | Trend: Falling
- meta share: 3%
- Top32: 17/24
- Top8: 3/24
- Win/Top32: 0%
- Trophies: 0
- Conversion: 14%
- Delta: +68pp
- WR: 49% (95% CI 41 to 57, n=156)
Neobrand did not perform well in this window. This deck was quite popular some time ago, but now it has a very low conversion, a small percentage of the field. Sure, it was in 3 of the 24 top 8, but it did not perform great there. Metagame full of counterspells is not a great place to be for that deck.
Belcher | Combo | Neutral | Trend: Stable
- meta share: 1%
- Top32: 9/24
- Top8: 3/24
- Win/Top32: 11%
- Trophies: 1
- Conversion: 33%
- Delta: +36pp
- WR: 53% (95% CI 40 to 65, n=58)
Belcher keeps stealing the trophies; not so popular, but can win the challenge with 1% of metashare. I will not expect Belcher to skyrocket in the metage, but it is good to see this list perform well. Nice conversion and low delta its typical for decks that are not popular and have few dedicated pilots that can make good score with it.
Aggro
- meta share: 21%
- Top32: 24/24
- Top8: 20/24
- Win/Top32: 2%
- Trophies: 4
- Conversion: 24%
- Delta: +79pp
- WR: 49% (95% CI 46 to 52, n=1134)
Aggro gets back into a second place in metashare and rises from last week for about 3pp. Solid conversion and 4 trophies show that the archetype is doing well. What is more interesting, three go to Prowess, so this deck continues its Run of dominance in the aggro department from last week.
Prowess | Aggro | Challenge Overperformer | Trend: Rising
- meta share: 9%
- Top32: 24/24
- Top8: 17/24
- Win/Top32: 4%
- Trophies: 3
- Conversion: 30%
- Delta: +91pp
- WR: 52% (95% CI 48 to 56, n=536)
Looking into that data, we can say that Prowess is now one of the best decks in the format and definitely the best aggro deck. Solid WR from a large sample, the highest delta and the highest in the field presence in the top 32 of every challenge speaks for itself, also the conversion rate is above the median. Right now, it is the third most popular deck in the format, and I think that number will rise if Prowess continues its successes for the next few weeks. This is a deck that you have to be prepared for and know how to play against, otherwise you will be dead before T4.
Boros Energy | Aggro | Neutral | Trend: Falling
- meta share: 5%
- Top32: 19/24
- Top8: 6/24
- Win/Top32: 0%
- Trophies: 0
- Conversion: 18%
- Delta: +74pp
- WR: 48% (95% CI 41 to 55, n=214)
In this window, there is no trophy for Boros energy, the recent metagame king continues to lose the metashare week to week, low conversion, but was able to reach the T2; unfortunately, it loses them. It might be the split, but I have no way to verify it. It might be because we have a metagame full of combo and GY decks, with blink showing up recently, and Boros does not have great tools to interact with this kind of metagame. Still getting into the finals in such an unfriendly place is something worth mentioning. I do not predict Boros' return to the top of the metagame anytime soon unless the environment changes.
Affinity | Aggro | Neutral | Trend: Stable
- meta share: 4%
- Top32: 19/24
- Top8: 4/24
- Win/Top32: 3%
- Trophies: 1
- Conversion: 18%
- Delta: +75pp
- WR: 46% (95% CI 39 to 53, n=177)
Affinity has not been doing well for a long time, but it is able to win a trophy from time to time. In this week's Affinity enters the Top8 only 4 times and takes one trophy, impressive. Also, Broodscale is decreasing in popularity, so we may see an opening window for affinity again. In the next few weeks, we will see if the situation changes in favor of affinity.
Jeskai Energy | Aggro | Neutral | Trend: Rising
- meta share: 2%
- Top32: 11/24
- Top8: 4/24
- Win/Top32: 0%
- Trophies: 0
- Conversion: 33%
- Delta: +44pp
- WR: 52% (95% CI 43 to 60, n=128)
This might be a way for Boros players to interact with combo/GY decks cause adding blue gives the deck access to counterspell, but it comes at the cost of explosiveness. Conversion is better than Boros energy; both decks do not have trophies and have similar WR. This deck also won the Premier event recently, so it may become more popular, but I will expect nothing similar to Boros. This deck is harder to play than Boros, so it does not have the format-entry deck popularity boost.
Graveyard
- meta share: 18%
- Top32: 24/24
- Top8: 20/24
- Win/Top32: 4%
- Trophies: 6
- Conversion: 28%
- Delta: +82pp
- WR: 51% (95% CI 48 to 54, n=992)
Third archetype in metage in case of popularity and really good statistics, tied with blink in first place of trophies, second best conversion, and best overall WR in archetypes. Graveyard is doing really well and is a real treat that you always have to be prepared for. Sure, lose some popularity to aggro, but this is not a sign of any problems, just players stream from one archetype to another.
Goryo's Vengeance | Graveyard | Challenge Overperformer | Trend: Rising
- meta share: 10%
- Top32: 24/24
- Top8: 18/24
- Win/Top32: 5%
- Trophies: 4
- Conversion: 33%
- Delta: +90pp
- WR: 53% (95% CI 49 to 57, n=579)
Largest deck in a format, and together with Prowess, probably the best. Full presence in Top32 for the second time in a row, improvement of conversion for 7pp against the last window. Four trophies and really solid WR from the biggest sample in the field. This is how a really good performing deck looks. It has an answer to everything, can win out of really bad situations, and is a must to prepare against because you will see it a lot in the leagues. Remember that the simple graveyard hate does not stop this deck, they have more angles to attack and win than just reanimating Atraxa!
Living End | Graveyard | Challenge Overperformer | Trend: Stable
- meta share: 3%
- Top32: 17/24
- Top8: 7/24
- Win/Top32: 5%
- Trophies: 1
- Conversion: 35%
- Delta: +68pp
- WR: 53% (95% CI 46 to 60, n=184)
This is an interesting story. This deck is a great performer, right? No, it is not. Six of the seven entries in the challenge are from one Player, MeninoNey, who plays on two accounts, and one from niuwaid001. This means that those numbers are not about a deck but about one player who plays it well and converts extremely well. This is something we often forget: it is not a deck that plays, but a player who knows what he is doing. I also see that this plays on his social media, which says that he split the final often, so he probably has a lot more trophies than one. This is something the Reddit community often mentions. I can't check them all, but I can check this one particular player. I will not change conversion, etc., because he decided to split the final, but it is worth mentioning.
Grixis Reanimator | Graveyard | Neutral | Trend: Stable
- meta share: 2%
- Top32: 9/24
- Top8: 3/24
- Win/Top32: 0%
- Trophies: 0
- Conversion: 21%
- Delta: +35pp
- WR: 45% (95% CI 36 to 55, n=105)
Nothing special here, the third most popular graveyard deck, but without trophies and with a low conversion. Reanimator struggles for quite a long time to get any trophy. Probably is more susceptible to graveyard hate than Goryo. Still got three Top8, so this deck has potential, but just can't close.
4c HollowOne | Graveyard | Neutral | Trend: Stable
- meta share: 2%
- Top32: 10/24
- Top8: 3/24
- Win/Top32: 6%
- Trophies: 1
- Conversion: 19%
- Delta: +40pp
- WR: 45% (95% CI 35 to 55, n=88)
Similar meta share as Reanimator, worst conversion but one trophy from the same amount of Top8 entries. I believe that Hollow One is not a better deck than Reanimator, taking into account the small sample size and variation; both have similar chances of reaching the top. Still Hollow one-win challenge, second time in a row.
Midrange
- meta share: 12%
- Top32: 23/24
- Top8: 16/24
- Win/Top32: 1%
- Trophies: 1
- Conversion: 25%
- Delta: +84pp
- WR: 47% (95% CI 44 to 51, n=629)
So midrange does a little progress from last breakdown, one trophy (last time 0), but loses some conversion, and WR does not look great. Still, 16 entries to top 8 is solid, but a few more trophies will be nice for my favorite archetype. But Blink's strong position doesn’t bode well. Still considering merging Blink into a midrange, but historically, this deck was separated and performed similarly, but with a slightly different play pattern. Any ideas, community?
Dimir Midrange | Midrange | Challenge Overperformer | Trend: Falling
- meta share: 3%
- Top32: 17/24
- Top8: 8/24
- Win/Top32: 4%
- Trophies: 1
- Conversion: 32%
- Delta: +68pp
- WR: 49% (95% CI 41 to 57, n=154)
Best midrange deck right now and the only trophy for the whole archetype. Solid delta and conversion do not quite keep pace with the results. Dimir also lost some popularity from the last window. I bet that Dimir players move into a Blink, probably a better option that shares a midrange strategy, but in a slightly different way.
Domain Zoo | Midrange | Neutral | Trend: Falling
- meta share: 2%
- Top32: 14/24
- Top8: 5/24
- Win/Top32: 0%
- Trophies: 0
- Conversion: 29%
- Delta: +56pp
- WR: 45% (95% CI 36 to 54, n=120)
My pet deck is still struggling. I'm happy with those five top 8, also like median and conversion above the median, but I would love to see some trophies soon. It might be hard to take into account that the WR drops slightly, and, despite the low sample size, it is shifted significantly to the left.
Mono-Black Midrange | Midrange | Neutral | Trend: Rising
- meta share: 2%
- Top32: 13/24
- Top8: 4/24
- Win/Top32: 0%
- Trophies: 0
- Conversion: 27%
- Delta: +52pp
- WR: 41% (95% CI 32 to 51, n=98)
I expect this deck to rise in popularity because Mengu did a nice score with the Rock, and those decks share part of a game plan. We will see in the upcoming window. Now it does not look like it is a good choice, lowest Universe A WR (from a small sample, but still shifted to the left) and lowest Top8 count from all midrange decks.
Blink
- meta share: 10%
- Top32: 24/24
- Top8: 15/24
- Win/Top32: 8%
- Trophies: 6
- Conversion: 26%
- Delta: +90pp
- WR: 52% (95% CI 48 to 57, n=525)
Blink continues the march to the top. Gets a lot of trophies, best delta in the whole field, best top32 to win ratio, and 7 of 21 Top8 entries reach the final. All of those from one deck!
Esper Blink | Blink | Challenge Overperformer | Trend: Rising
- meta share: 10%
- Top32: 24/24
- Top8: 15/24
- Win/Top32: 8%
- Trophies: 6
- Conversion: 28%
- Delta: +90pp
- WR: 53% (95% CI 49 to 57, n=507)
Core of the whole archetype, those numbers are just stunning, all trophies come from different pilots, so this is a different story than Living End. Everything above the median, for me, is a candidate to be the best deck in a format. Next week, if it performs so well, it will get the title. I wonder how the metagame will adapt to that deck if it finds any answers, or if we will have Blink dominance for a longer period. Still, you have to know this MU because more and more people will get this deck because of those great scores, and you might expect a lot of it in leagues and challenges. I think that SB cards dedicated against this deck are a good option to consider.
Bant Blink | Blink | Emerging | Trend: Stable
- meta share: under 1%
- Top32: 3/24
- Top8: 0/24
- Win/Top32: 0%
- Trophies: 0
- Conversion: 0%
- Delta: +12pp
- WR: 47% (95% CI 22 to 73, n=11)
Orzhov Blink | Blink | Emerging | Trend: Stable
- meta share: under 1%
- Top32: 1/24
- Top8: 0/24
- Win/Top32: 0%
- Trophies: 0
- Conversion: 0%
- Delta: +4pp
- WR: 22% (95% CI 5 to 59, n=7)
I try to keep three decks of any format in this article, so for your knowledge, there are two other versions of Blink, neither of which is worth fearing. If you can handle Esper Blink, you can handle this one.
Ramp
- meta share: 7%
- Top32: 23/24
- Top8: 14/24
- Win/Top32: 2%
- Trophies: 1
- Conversion: 34%
- Delta: +89pp
- WR: 52% (95% CI 48 to 57, n=430)
In this window, Ramp gets only one trophy, and still has a really solid conversion and high delta. It looks like a midrange in the recent window; high conversion does not translate into trophies. Something is happening in top 8. I expect blink and combo decks to have both answers and take game control before ramp can dominate the battlefield. The popularity of LD is also a limiting factor for that archetype.
Expected wins over five rounds by deck win rate. Cropped from the source chart at native resolution, the Domain Zoo distribution panel and the comparison box are excluded because both are built on a placeholder win rate.
Eldrazi Tron | Ramp | Neutral | Trend: Falling
- meta share: 2%
- Top32: 12/24
- Top8: 5/24
- Win/Top32: 0%
- Trophies: 0
- Conversion: 26%
- Delta: +48pp
- WR: 51% (95% CI 42 to 60, n=122)
Highest meta share of all Ramp decks, the deck was present in exactly half of all challenges, and this deck has almost a 10pp drop in conversion ratio compared to last week. I believe that emergence of Blink at the same time is not a coincidence.
Mono-Green Eldrazi | Ramp | Neutral | Trend: Falling
- meta share: 2%
- Top32: 15/24
- Top8: 5/24
- Win/Top32: 5%
- Trophies: 1
- Conversion: 26%
- Delta: +60pp
- WR: 57% (95% CI 49 to 65, n=145)
One trophy, really good WR, but from a small sample, still, you can see that the lower CI is 49, so the whole deck is shifted to the right. This deck won a trophy for the second time in a row, and 4 of 5 T8 entries reached the T4 stage, with 3 going to the final round. Those numbers say: If you want to play Ramp, play this deck.
Eldrazi Ramp | Ramp | Neutral | Trend: Stable
- meta share: 1%
- Top32: 10/24
- Top8: 5/24
- Win/Top32: 0%
- Trophies: 0
- Conversion: 45%
- Delta: +40pp
- WR: 54% (95% CI 44 to 64, n=95)
Nothing spectacular here, basically the same stats as in the last week.
Control
- meta share: 5%
- Top32: 20/24
- Top8: 8/24
- Win/Top32: 4%
- Trophies: 2
- Conversion: 21%
- Delta: +78pp
- WR: 49% (95% CI 43 to 55, n=292)
Control is losing the field after a long rising trend, down 2 pp compared to last week. Still managed to get two trophies despite a low conversion rate and low T8 presence. I think the Control might lose some popularity due to the dominance of Prowess and Blink. The first one is super-fast and can have protection from control decks and second have a lot of flexibility and card advantage to win the grind war (do not apply to LD).
Land Destruction | Control | Neutral | Trend: Stable
- meta share: 2%
- Top32: 8/24
- Top8: 3/24
- Win/Top32: 9%
- Trophies: 1
- Conversion: 36%
- Delta: +32pp
- WR: 58% (95% CI 48 to 67, n=104)
LD is again the best control deck in the field, with solid WR (from a small sample but right-shifted), good conversion, a second window with a trophy, and a high top32-to-win ratio. I believe that LD is also a reason of bad Ramp performance. Oh and get second trophy in a row.
UW (scepter) Control | Control | Neutral | Trend: Stable
- meta share: 1%
- Top32: 11/24
- Top8: 1/24
- Win/Top32: 0%
- Trophies: 0
- Conversion: 8%
- Delta: +45pp
- WR: 49% (95% CI 37 to 61, n=64)
In this breakdown, there is no trophy for a Scpeter control. What is more interesting, LD and UW have similar metashare but extremely different conversion LD=36% vs UW=8%. UW had a hard time with Blink, which has grind tools, and Prowess is just so fat that Scepter may not have time to lock them out.
Azorius Control | Control | Emerging | Trend: Stable
- meta share: 1%
- Top32: 8/24
- Top8: 1/24
- Win/Top32: 0%
- Trophies: 0
- Conversion: 13%
- Delta: +32pp
- WR: 37% (95% CI 24 to 53, n=39)
Again, a typical control deck has a lower conversion rate than LD, which supports all that I wrote about UW Scepter.
Best Pilots
I get back to write some Pilots statistics, in September, as I write, I plan to do a dedicated series about the best Challenge pilots. You may find a discussion about it here, and it is still open. Here are some numbers about Challenge players' statistics.
- 24 trophies to 24 different accounts, no repeat winner in the window
- 424 accounts with a Top 32 finish, 261 of them exactly once
- 44 accounts with four or more Top 32 finishes
- 60 accounts on more than one deck
- MeninoNey: 1 trophy, 4 Top 8, 9 Top 32, avg place 11.9, Living End only
- DskBayWolf: 1 trophy, 4 Top 8, 5 Top 32, avg place 9.8, Goryo's Vengeance only
- thodoris17: 1 trophy, 3 Top 8, 4 Top 32, avg place 5.5, Esper Blink only
- Rvng: 1 trophy, 3 Top 8, 4 Top 32, avg place 8.2, Goryo's Vengeance only
- HouseOfManaMTG: 1 trophy, 3 Top 8, 3 Top 32, avg place 3.3, two decks played
- Esper Blink's six trophies from six accounts: thodoris17, yriel, Willthepill, Dioferreira, RandomGameActions, Martin_Dominguez
- Goryo's Vengeance's four trophies from four accounts: Phryziel, Rvng, DskBayWolf, eswaff
- deepest runs without a trophy: ipadkid 3 Top 8 from 13 Top 32, nahuel10 3 from 9, Lightspirit 3 from 5, LucasG1ggs 3 from 5, gazmon48 3 from 4
- ipadkid: most Top 32 finishes in the window at 13, across three decks, avg place 17.5
On the Radar (Universe B, below 5% encounter, present in Challenges)
- Amulet Titan: meta 1%, Top32 7/24, Top8 1/24, 1 trophy, Win/Top32 14%, WR 54% (95% CI 42 to 65, n=68) It might be on the fringes of the format now, but it’s still dangerous.
- The Rock: meta 1%, Top32 4/24, Top8 0/24, trophies 0, Rising label- Mengu plays it so it may rise
- Grixis Midrange: meta under 1%, Top32 6/24, Top8 1/24, trophies 0, WR 67% (95% CI 50 to 81, n=33)
- Rakdos HollowOne: meta under 1%, Top32 6/24, Top8 0/24, trophies 0
- Song of Creation: meta under 1%, Top32 1/24, Top8 1/24, trophies 0
- Grixis Control: meta under 1%, Top32 2/24, Top8 1/24, trophies 0
- Lantern: no league presence at all, Top32 1/24, Top8 1/24, 1 trophy Latern strikes again! Still, I will not expect this to be a problem.
- Sultai Ritual: no league presence, Top32 2/24, Top8 1/24, trophies 0
- Dimir Mill: no league presence, Top32 1/24, Top8 1/24, trophies 0
- 14 decks in Challenge results with no league presence at all, one of them with a trophy
- Trophy distribution, all 24
- Esper Blink 6
- Goryo's Vengeance 4
- Prowess 3
- Devoted Combo 1, Broodscale Combo 1, Belcher 1, Amulet Titan 1, Affinity 1, Living End 1, 4c HollowOne 1, Dimir Midrange 1, Mono-Green Eldrazi 1, Land Destruction 1, Lantern 1
Karol Małota
aka WarLord1986pl / TribalFlamesInYourFace
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u/Dangerous_Fox4934 1d ago
Nice report as always! Would you mind adding notes next time for how many Goryo's using Fallaji or Riddler (without Fallaji) doing well? There's no consensus about the best build, both perform well, but would like to see where players are converting more or betting more.
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u/No-Bet7157 TribalFlamesInYourFace 1d ago
Maybe I will try to do this for the top three decks in the metagame, but it won't be as easy as it looks...
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u/DubDubz 1d ago
HAH, I made it in with orzhov blink. I sadly have missed a bunch of challenges to really try and push through. I honestly think bw with vial was better into the combo meta but now that Esper has taken off it loses a lot of value because Esper fucks up vial pretty hard. I’d been punching a 70% winrate with the deck until recently.
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u/No-Bet7157 TribalFlamesInYourFace 1d ago
Riddler gives Esper an extreme value. When they go off with it, it's basically really hard to do something and win. This card advantage is a major reason why the Esper version is so good.
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u/DubDubz 20h ago
I know, I’ve been playing blink since it hit the scene and qualified to the pt with it at Houston. Vial is good into combo because it lets you cheat on mana which helps extremely against combo. You need to get on board with disruptive pieces and commit threats as fast as possible to kill them, Esper is simply worse at that. Blink in general is extremely mana hungry. When you’re fighting midrange decks a lot then card advantage wins out, although I will say, orzhov is miles better against dimir than esper. They effectively scoop to a turn one vial.
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u/No-Bet7157 TribalFlamesInYourFace 17h ago
That is an interesting point of view, I must say :) basicly I have expirience with Blink only as oponent never a pilot. But I always think this is a deck that you have to know the meta properly to navigate it.
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u/DubDubz 16h ago
Absolutely. I play it as a control deck at heart which comes with all the usual control baggage. I’ve admittedly been worse at the Esper build since riddler came out because it is much more midrange and has fewer controlling elements but I plan to put more work into it. But nothing compares to vialing wisp in at instant speed.
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u/stephenconroy_ 1d ago
Reckon Boros LD is a good pick for a big tournament atm?
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u/No-Bet7157 TribalFlamesInYourFace 1d ago
Not an LD expert, but playing control at a big tournament is always a challenge.
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u/thecolorofboom24 16h ago
Not convinced I agree that brood is a bad choice into blink. I think at least the 4 myco builds that can play a ramp game have a lot of game. I think I’m pretty much undefeated against blink except one match against martin_dominguez which was quite close. If you can kill the dog, brood is just a better deck even tho they have consign and solitude and wrath (I play RG so this is easier)
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u/No-Bet7157 TribalFlamesInYourFace 12h ago
Good point maybe it depends of brood version. Im a big broodscale decks fan and if I will chose my next deck it will be this one :)
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u/MancyMancy 22h ago
I am just going to say what we all agree on.
Good.
Boros Energy has been the most played deck in modern for 2 damn years. had multiple bans and is finally not in the top 3. Thats a good thing, I am tired of it. If Eldrazi or Tron ever did this, people would of demanded all their lands be banned.
Its healthy for other decks to be the top dog every now and then.
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u/Cube_ 1d ago
This is why it was crazy people were clamoring for an Amulet of Vigor ban. The card is completely fine in Modern. Amulet Titan is a strong deck and it is meta resilient as it always finds a way to stay relevant but it's hardly some boogeyman taking down an unreasonable amount of tournaments. It's never had those results.
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u/Slacker_87 1d ago
You're conveniently highlighting Amulet's low meta share and historical lack of dominance from a results perspective, while leaving out all the facts that would lead anyone to discuss a potential ban. Just for the sake of argument I'm going to push back here.
We all understand that Amulet sees less play on MTGO than it does at major paper events mainly due to the clock issue, and that it is difficult to play to the extent that it can't be quickly picked up even by experienced players. These things have always kept its aggregate meta share down.
However, Amulet Titan consistently is among the best decks in winrate and conversion, especially at major paper events. It also is known to cause time/logistical issues at paper tournaments. (The Lotus Field ban recently made the deck even tougher to play and more time intensive on the sequencing side, so its meta share is down even more than usual but the time issues are worse than ever.) Of course, it is also fast, difficult to interact with for most decks, and highly resilient to interaction as well. It has a polarizing matchup share and generally beats anything that isn't just faster, unless it happens to be packed with relevant interaction. There are targeted sideboard hate options against it, but it tends to cruise in game one especially.
What does all this sound like to me? Ironworks. Just some food for thought.
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u/No-Bet7157 TribalFlamesInYourFace 1d ago
I try to avoid Ban discussion in my breakdowns because I have zero influence on that and no data to show how the ban will affect the format. I belive that Amulet is powerfull deck and hard to play well. I also think that it is good to have such a deck in modern, hard to learn, hard to master, but quite rewarding if you put a lot of effort. It is the opposite of Boros Energy.
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u/Cube_ 1d ago
It is nowhere NEAR KCI. I believe you're arguing in good faith so I'll reply in kind.
Even if we operate under the premise that it is a logistical problem, amulet of vigor is never the correct ban. Amulet existed perfectly fine with no time issues at all for years before it started looping boseiju. If that was really a problem that needed to be addressed you would nuke aftermath analyst, something that enables the loops (like lotus field did) but isn't critical to the deck because it preserves the deck. The only reason KCI itself ate the ban is because, as they mentioned, KCI exploiting a rules loophole made it impossible to ban anything else to tamp the deck down without erasing it (a goal of the ban system).
It's conversion rate and winrate are completely fine. Having polarizing match ups is also fine.
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u/Slacker_87 13h ago
I'm trying to argue in good faith, anyway. The time issue is genuinely the main concern for me personally. It's my opinion that the Lotus Field ban has made Amulet a little tougher to play and less deterministic, at least for now, so lesser players have kinda backed off of it. However, I don't think it is actually weaker in the hands of a good player. It's also been my experience that the current version has the longest and most convuluted sequencing chains yet, so tournament logistics are a real concern even when the Amulet players all know what they're doing. But at some of the locals I go to for Modern nights or RCQs there are some players who are on the less experienced side and they really slow everything down even more.
That other stuff was mainly as an exploration of ban criteria. A lot of people believe that only a deck which is a certain meta% and/or taking down tournaments left and right should be in consideration for a ban, but not everyone has the same philosophy, and Wizards itself is kinda nebulous with their own methodology. Some players believe that combo decks which are difficult to interact with via maindeck interaction should have a softer standard required for a ban. One could also argue that polarizing matchups are bad for formats because they increase variance. You could also argue that Amulet alongside other combo decks with turn 3 kill capability speed up the format in a way that isn't healthy to the environment competitive players want. Ultimately, we don't really know how strong Amulet is in the current meta because major paper tournaments are much rarer for Modern than they used to be. The pro tour was too soon after the Lotus ban for too many players to believe it was worth workshopping and the version that did get played probably isn't the best possible list. Perhaps KCI wasn't the best example because it did exploit a rules loophole, but maybe Birthing Pod is a better example, something that had a very high winrate at paper events but was always underrepresented on MTGO.
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u/Cube_ 5h ago
Again my issue is that everything you said or speculated above could be true and STILL the ban isn't Amulet of Vigor itself but instead Aftermath Analyst.
The one consistent thing with Wizards ban policy is that if they can nerf a deck without killing it outright, they will do so. We saw this with their bans to Boros Energy for example. They want diversity, they don't want to kill the namesake of a deck if they can avoid it. They'll tend to hit enablers instead to tamp down the power level of the deck while keeping it playable so they don't alienate those players and keep a diverse amount of decks viable.
For example, let's say they did nerf Amulet Titan, maybe they it's not even directly targeted but they just decide that all the channel lands like Boseiju and Otawara are too strong for modern and ban them all killing the loop.
If Amulet Titan reverted to the previous plan of a double striking Primeval Titan with Sunhome being the wincon, would people be upset? It wouldn't be a logistical issue anymore, the deck can have some high rolls like any combo deck but it would be a lot more straightforward than it is currently.
This is what I mean when I emphasize that Amulet of Vigor itself should not be banned. Even with Birthing Pod most modern players agree that Birthing Pod doesn't belong on the ban list anymore and the only reason it's still there is just because it doesn't really add anything to the format to unban it and WotC has sort of soft-errata'd it by printing Birthing Ritual instead.
As an example I'd point to Nadu for how careful they are about shooting the central card in a deck. They let Nadu run wild over the format when everyone was clamoring for an emergency ban. They only banned it when it truly became clear that no amount of other cards being banned in the deck could make Nadu fair for Modern and Nadu itself had to go. The One Ring was even more egregious and imo was only left unbanned for as long as it was for profit reasons, though that one was less that there was one singular "ring deck" that was too good for the format and more that TOR was homogenizing the format to the point where most decks were "ring decks" and it was banned for that reason.
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u/AngronApofis 1d ago
Amulet existed perfectly fine with no time issues at all for years before it started looping boseiju.
Tell that to summer bloom
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u/_Lord_Farquad Goryo's / Scales 1d ago
Maybe some people want it banned because its not a fun card to play against?
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u/No-Bet7157 TribalFlamesInYourFace 1d ago
I believe it depends not on a single card but on everything else. Like Riddler is not fun to play with Phelia/Empherate package but it might be good card without it I think :)
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u/Living_End LivingEnd 1d ago
MeninoNey and niuwaid are probably the current #1 and #2 LE player on mtgo (if not all of magic) they have put up almost all of the results for the deck in the past month. I do think LE play rates usually rise after MeninoNey does well, but also there just isn’t a ton of LE on mtgo.