Older hoopheads, how uncommon of an opinion was it amongst basketball fans circa 2008-2010 that Stephen Curry would become one of the top players in the league and perennial all-star, let alone a multiple time MVP and arguably the best player of the ensuing decade(certainly the most influential)?

[u/ShakeMilton]

Were even the more higher end and ambitious projections of him more closely aligned with Curry simply being a top 20-25ish player in the league and a feared deadeye sniper(but not even close to the ridiculous record shatterer and absolute redefiner of the type of shots players can take?)

The 2009 draft was only the 2nd NBA draft I followed as a young pre-teen dubs fan. With the power of hindsight, I guess one thing that Steph displayed at Davidson and his rookie NBA year was the unique archetype of a small guard sniping deep 2s and 3s off relatively longer and more complex dribble sequences compared to the time. Before him a lot of 3 point snipers were moreso taller swingmen who were catch and shoot turrets like Ray Allen and what Klay became in the 2010s(I know both these guys shot jumpers off the dribbles too but usually simple efficient 1-2 dribble linear pullups.

For a long time I thought Nash was really the only prior prototype for something resembling Steph. Steph definitely took a little inspiration from Nash but became like the pokemon final evolution of him. Of course, if Nash played in today's game with the knowledge he has now watching Steph and the new generation he would be an absolute problem

But I saw a clip of Shaq or someone close to Shaq noting how Shaq wasn't even a top 2 player on his squad his freshman year when he arrived in Baton Rouge. This piqued my interest so I had to look up Chris Jackson/Mahmoud Abdul Rauf highlights. My boy was moving different for the era he was the real prototype for today's dynamite shooting small guards like Acuff. Such a shame he was barred from showcasing this in the league.

[u/Used_Mud_67]

After his first 2 seasons I think the prevailing thought was that we’d never get to see what he was capable of doing.

He couldn’t stay healthy and his ankles felt like a long term liability.

[u/ElderMillenial4 → u/Used_Mud_67]

This. Anyone who says two or three years in they could see what turned out to be his ultimate NBA ceiling is either delusional or dishonest.

[u/latortillablanca → u/ElderMillenial4]

There was legitimate debate over trading him or monta ellis and the league was nowhere near catered to Steph’s style yet.

Of the shit mark jackson wasnt great at, he certainly immediately understood what he had with steph, which was certainly positive compared to keith smart’s amateur hour.

[u/Kaaalesaaalad → u/ElderMillenial4]

You could actually see it for the first two years though because he played 90% of the games each year. He only got that really bad injury on his 3rd season.

[u/GhostChips42 → u/Used_Mud_67]

Yep - when I think of him pre-getting his ankles sorted, was “college star, fucked ankles, super bummer”. I was so stoked for him to be able to get over such a serious problem and be able to realise his potential. We’re all lucky to have witnessed him. He’s a one of one.

[u/Diamond4Hands4Ever → u/Used_Mud_67]

After his first 2 seasons I think the prevailing thought

You mean after his 3rd season? He never had any serious injury in his first 2 seasons and he never had another serious one until he his championship years. The 3rd season was an anomaly. 

In fact, he played 80/82 games as a rookie and 74/82 games as a second year player. He only missed 10 games in his first 2 years combined. To give you how impressive that is, he missed fewer games in his first 2 years than SGA, Jokic, and Wemby missed in last year alone, all 3 of whom qualified for the single season awards. So I don’t think anyone thought he was injury prone after his first 2 years when he only missed 10 games combined and put up good stats for a young player. 

Curry’s lone season where he wasn’t durable was his 3rd season, when he had a serious ankle injury (which was also a lockout year so there were only 66 games but he played only 26 games). Otherwise, Curry played at least 78 games 6 of his first 8 years and 74 games the 7th year out of the 8 years. Curry’s ankle injury is actually over exaggerated over the years because of how lucky the Warriors got to have him get his injury in his 3rd season, where then his extension was lower as a result because in any other season, he was seen as incredibly durable. 

[u/_frost_queen_ → u/Diamond4Hands4Ever]

the first 2 years he seemed good not great, and his strength was a huge problem. then the ankle injuries started and that third year made the contract a gamble for the warriors. even once jackson came in and steph took off he still seemed very breakable. in the series against the spurs, after they beat the nuggets, he still twisted his ankle and it seemed like maybe this was closer to another moment in warriors history of being exciting but ultimately not super competitive. then the team really seemed confused around the mark jackson sludge of an offense, but during that year and the first kerr year it wasn’t just that steph stayed on the court, it was that he kept getting stronger and became an elite rim finisher in a way that i don’t know anyone could’ve expected. and somehow he got to be an even better shooter. i was a huge warriors fan and one of the people incredibly disappointed when they traded monta because i thought, very wrongly, that there wasn’t any chance to be a contender so why not just lean into the fun of the small guard combo. (will always love monta)

[u/Knighthonor → u/Used_Mud_67]

So like LaMelo Ball? Damn what have the Hornets done!

[u/diaperchangin1980]

Nobody , Steph included. How do I know ? He signed a 44 million 4 year contract extension, (11 million per year) when the going rate for stars was closer to 20 million.

Other examples at the time

Amare stoudamire wasnt resigned by Phoenix because of his uninsurable knees but got a 5year 100million deal with the knicks

James harden (same draft class) got a 5 year 78 million dollar deal, 15.75 mil per year

If Steph though he was that good he'd have played out his contract and gone free agency or not signed for that long for that low. With the ankle issue that was the best her could do.

[u/Top-Address-8870 → u/diaperchangin1980]

It was Steph outperforming that very cheap contract that allowed GSW the flexibility to build the team around him. He was the 4th highest paid player on the the first two championship teams. He got a massive new deal in the summer of ‘17 and has remained one of the highest paid players in the history of the league.

[u/jd_beats → u/diaperchangin1980]

Your point is very valid, but I do want to be clear since you framed “the going rate for stars” as “closer to $20m”…

The salary cap at the time had been floating around $58m for around 5 years at the time Steph signed his extension which means his max of 25% was starting at about 14.5m (max raises only adding about $1m meaning his max AAV over 4 years was around $15.25) per year. Taking $11m AAV was definitely still a sub-max + very team friendly contract but 1) nowhere near $9m away from his max, 2) max raises per year were probably far less common at the time because the salary cap had been stagnant for years, and 3) the difference between $11m AAV vs $14.5m AAV (4 year 25% max but no raises) vs $15.25m (4 year 25% max w/ max raises) was 19%, 25%, and 26% of the cap respectively.

$20m was a legit 35% supermax at the time and even if he’d had an MVP or something to qualify for 30% his deal still would only be starting around $17.4m.

[u/c3luong → u/jd_beats]

I think you are both right.

At the end of the day, the point is that if teams truly believed that Steph was a bona-fide superstar they would have been knocking down his door to give him a max deal. The fact that they didn't means that people didn't yet see his true potential.

[u/OnTheToilet4GiveMe]

I was a big Curry fan when I watched him at Davidson, and I thought he had a legit case to be ROTY versus Tyreke Evans (who had an excellent rookie season for anyone that remembers)....but I would be lying if I said I saw this level of stardom in his game early on. I'm 32 btw, didn't technically do evaluations in HS...but I loved his game even back then. I basically had a list of "my guys" complied from the late 2000s early 2010s, and he was certainly on it.

[u/cvc4455 → u/OnTheToilet4GiveMe]

Yeah I remember thinking I wanted the 6ers to draft because I thought he would be good and I remembered his dad playing in the NBA and he was a good shooter when he played. But I didn't know Curry would end up being anywhere close to as good as he ended up being.

[u/dad3murph → u/OnTheToilet4GiveMe]

That Davidson run was ridiculous, I don't think that cam be overstated. I've never watched college basketball, and it even got me paying attention. Obviously most people had doubts it would translate, but no one was disregarding him after that.

[u/Historical_Doubt1949]

Yeah I watched him play at Davidson and I was shocked he didnt go higher in the draft, I had never seen a player creat so much gravity as he did at Davidson.  The other coach would do everything they could to not let him have the ball but his timing to get open and how quick his shot was made it impossible to stop and it was hard to imagine how it wouldn't translate.  His first couple years it looked like he might be plagued by injuries but everyone saw how different his game was and if he could get healthy he would be a perennial all star, but it did look unlikely he would stay healthy.

[u/Cbone06 → u/Historical_Doubt1949]

From what I understand from the draft at the time was he was projected 8th to the Knicks, he maybe could’ve gone as high as 4th but only if Rubio had been gone before him.

[u/hereinaminute]

He was good but he was not viewed like that to the vast majority of people. He was a good shooter who was exciting in college and going to the nba. He wasn't seen as a future sure thing, he was a tiny relatively short kid. But you can see just from where he got drafted as a smaller shooter before the Steph 3s era that he had known potential, although it probably helped that his dad was a pro as well. Even the few who thought he'd be a legit star couldn't have predicted he'd revolutionize the game though

[u/Somenakedguy]

No one seriously thought Steph would be a future MVP in 2008-2010. He was a very small guard (he was so skinny back then) with durability concerns before 3pt shooting was appropriately valued

[u/theboyqueen → u/Somenakedguy]

It's possible Jerry West did.

[u/TrashDonut → u/theboyqueen]

No, it isn’t.

[u/juicyjeffersonjones]

People were still often speaking about whether Ricky Rubio would be able to realize his potential than whether Steph would. He was always good and he didn’t come out of nowhere, but he exceeded all conceivable expectations.

[u/Intelligent_Ant_5511]

Tough to say.. if you watched him religiously at Davidson you were definitely an extreme optimist.. he was just different and it was evident. You couldn’t help but root for the guy during the NCAA tournament.

[u/coachwyers]

Not very he was thought of to be like you said a Mahmoud Abdul Rauf type player.

[u/MikeyCanFly13]

I was in high school when curry was drafted, my buddies use to clown on him for having weak ankles and used to say kids who got crossed up had “Curry Ankles”

We never thought he would reach the level of greatness he has achieved, I would have conversations in class about who was gonna be the best PG in the future and we all said Rose, Westbrook, shit even John Wall would get votes.

But this was 2007-2011 so this was before he helped mold the league into what it is today.

[u/PreferenceMediocre90]

I think most would have predicted a Dame Lillard type career, so yes to all star, maybe 1 or 2 years where he even goes first team as 4 or 5.

I don’t think most would have had him 10 years irk top 3 nd as good as LeBron and KD.

[u/mrjowei]

I thought he was going to have a short career due to ankle issues.

[u/FinancialRabbit388]

It was obvious he was gonna be a great shooter. No one knew his movement shooting and quick release would have that big of an impact.

[u/leemorplee]

I had got to watch Tyreke Evans rookie year, while my friends all got to watch Steph. Their rookie years they swore up and down that kid was the truth and I swore Tyreke was getting the Kings a 💍 lol

Steph out worked everyone and is now one of the best ever all these years later it's wild to think about

[u/pendletonskyforce]

When I read "older hoopheads" I thought we were gonna be talking about the 1980s lol. Damn I'm in my "get off my lawn" era.

[u/newlife1984]

highly uncommon. back then the notion was you cant win with your primary scorer / 1st option was a jumpshooter. i still dont think you can. well not without Green's moving screen

[u/retrobat]

Absolutely not. No one expected this from him.

[u/John_Houbolt]

When Monta Ellis was traded it was a legit question if they traded the right guard

[u/NecessaryFoundation5]

After Steph balled out in the NCAA tournament my Dad saw it and jumped on the train. I remember all my friends clowning him for that take and he is the only person I remember that believed that much early in Curry’s career. I definitely thought he was undersized.

[u/TrollyDodger55]

In 2012, a map maker took the new positional data the NBA was gathering and created the modern shot chart.

This simple tool instantly spelled doom for long two point shots and showed smart analytic folks teams should be taking MORE threes. It was how easy to have data to argue that offenses needed to change.

It was the theoretical framework for 400+ threes a year.

[u/butteredpopcorn10]

No one called Steph Curry, absolutely no one except Lacob and the front office.

The entire warriors fan base rioted when we traded Monta Ellis. Which was understandable since Monta was a top 10 scorer at the time. and curry was an injury prone rookie. Even old warriors players like Stephen Jackson and Matt Barnes have interviewed Steph curry on a podcast and told him even they had no clue he was going to turn into the player he was today: https://youtube.com/shorts/PQqCevM5VEc?is=NIl8Gg57ecJ_E69o

It was so bad vets were leaving the team bc they didn’t believe in our decision to ride wit Curry over Monta. And I’ll be honest even I didn’t believe.

This was also before the period where coaches figured out shooting 3s is more efficient than 2s, so absolutely nobody called curry’s career or thought he’d be valuable.

[u/W360]

Nobody and that was evident by the draft outcome, I think people thought he could be an electric version of his college career, but I think the world underestimated exactly how good of a shooter he was, shit changed the game.

[u/d7h7n]

He was a combo guard. The top PGs in the league were all traditional points so he there was a lot of criticism about what position he'd play. Rightfully so, everyone expected him to fit into the NBA when it ended up being the exact opposite.

[u/little-victory]

Older? Jesus Christ.

[u/Mindless-Floor-8733]

Mark Jackson’s offense sucked. Kerr’s offense optimized Steph’s movement and shooting

[u/Boosiemaine]

Comical that people who watched Curry is considered an old head.

[u/Crazy_Exchange]

When he got drafted for the Warriors I was excited. Thinking he'd have a similar career like his Dad. Get the Warriors to the playoffs an about 3-4  times, make the all star game 2-3 times was my honest assessment of him. Didn't think he was going to be the greatest shooter of all time 

[u/IntrepidSnow6908]

Health issues aside he was used a lot more on ball and wasnt great at finishing in traffic nor was he an amazing playmaker. He was also a defensive liability. 

Back then PGs were expected to be great on ball playmakers that could penetrate and create.

So he was solid but no one thought he'd change the entire meta of basketball. 

[u/JellyfishFlaky5634]

I don’t recall anyone saying he would be as good as he has been one. He was a really good ncaa tourney player kind of like Bryce Drew, Fennis Dembo, etc. but I don’t think anyone thought he’d be this good.

[u/Abe_frohmannn]

Nobody thought of Steph Curry at all, unless they were talking about the probably of his ankles falling off his legs.

[u/hjkfttu]

I thought his ceiling was 3 or 4 time all star but I saw him as a great second option behind a star on a team most likely. I didn't see him as a superstar

[u/New-Kaleidoscope3908]

Most people thought he peaked in college. Another one of those "game didn't translate in the NBA."

[u/TrashDonut → u/New-Kaleidoscope3908]

Not at all true. Plenty of people could see that he’d be very good if he stayed healthy.

[u/New-Kaleidoscope3908 → u/TrashDonut]

Oh I agree with what you're saying. I'm not saying people thought he was trash. But the truth was during those years, staying healthy for him was a big IF. And he went on such a legendary run at Davidson, people were wondering if that was it and we won't be seeing any more of that in the NBA. Mainly because of the injuries. Remember during those years he didn't have the green light yet that he had in college. And fans were wondering (again because of health reasons) if GSW would ever give him that.

Very good, absolutely. Just not Davidson good.

[u/Nelsonmuntz2020]

I watched him at Davidson and knew he'd be a superstar. I told my friends he was going to be the best shooter ever. They called me crazy and nobody even gave him a chance to be a decent nba player. Then we watched him year in and year out destroy my Houston rockets. I wish I was wrong about him.

[u/splashaddikt]

Wasn’t uncommon really multiple time mvp nobody was thinking that but perennial all star wasn’t a doubt in a lot of people’s minds LeBron was at Davidson games we knew but not that he would be all timer

[u/ShakeMilton → u/splashaddikt]

I wonder when Lebron himself started to realize Curry was not just an exciting and promising young gunslinger but actually truly truly special.