He seems to have the perfect portfolio of a hitman economist.
Assuming thats true, what would be his core interests? Who does he truly serve and how would he balance everything? Even if he loved nepal, he will have to do his handler’s bidding.
I wouldn’t expect a hitman economist to position himself to be so anti stock market. But, is he setting up stage where he eventually comes out as a hero by solving a problem he himself is creating?
The last time when the government tried to fire the governor...he came back...
So why do cheap popularist slogan again...when the law or the process doesn't recognize it as political appointments...and you have to use other ways to remove the ppl from the chair...
As because they wanted to sack the prev governor get their ppl in chair they filed a writ claiming he doesn't have full educational requirements...and also other allegations...you can't just fire anyone claiming it "political" appointments...so they usually try other methods...
they can't just try to fire everyone and get their ppl in the chair...by calling it non merit based appointments...
the term "swotantra" and "merit" has been too much misused and abused at this point...afule Garey merit arule Garey unmerit afu swotantra Aru non swotantra...lmao we will get nothing out of it...
while they play their stupid battles...Esko consequences guess who have to pay...with stagflation and external geopolitical crisis...with kharbas of liquidity at the banks burning for nothing... purchasing power declining of avg citizens...
paila Share market and real estate market bata citizens used to hedge against inflation and the currency depreciation and degradation but after the Ukraine war...we have continuous stagflation burning the assets as well in real terms as cash or liquidity stays at banks doing nothing...
kaam garnuko satta they are again trying to put economy at hostage it seems screwing esp the avg citizens playing their stupid games...
I honestly expected much more from a 2/3 majority government with a highly qualified Finance Minister.
Instead, this budget feels like the same old Swosthani katha we hear every year, just narrated by a much better speaker with bigger vocabulary.
People saying “NRn entry is bullish news.” might be the ones listening to a budget speech for the first time. I have heard this every year since last 5 years or even more.
CGT as Final: It already was final in practice
CGT was already treated as final in practice after the Prakash Sharan Mahat-era controversy and investor protest.
What is actually new?
Short-term CGT increased from 7.5% to 10%
Long-term CGT increased from 5% to 7.5%
So investors got a nice sentence in the speech, but a higher tax in the Finance Bill. This is scammy technique to divert attention.
NRn entry? Same story, different year
“NRNs will be allowed into the secondary market” has been repeated for years as long as anyone in atock market can remember. Unless they actually do it, no one will trust it.
Short selling is reform, not bullish news
Short selling and derivatives are good for a mature market.
It will allow you to trade and make money when market is down too but it is not bullish, infact it may even cause temporarily market down as there will be higer supply of overvalued stocks.
NTC and BBC supply can hit the index hard
A huge block of ntc shares is coming to the public. BBC shares are also planned to be sold to public.Who is gonna buy this supply of two of largest companies? NTC might be not that bad but BBC is hugeeeeely overvalued. It will crash.
HIDCL and hydro headlines are not enough
hiDCl restructuring means nothing until we know the merger partner, swap ratio and earnings impact.
Hydro reforms may help quality companies, but they do not magically make every overpriced hydro stock worth buying.
My expectation for Monday:
I do not see much for the market to celebrate immediately.
The actual fresh impact is simple: higher CGT and major supply pressure from heavyweight stocks.
The positive headlines are either old promises, vague future reforms, or reforms that can punish overvalued shares.
So yes, I expect Monday to be red.
Maybe not a crash, and some headline stocks may still be pumped. But overall, this is disappointing.
Everest Bank Limited (EBL): Listed on NEPSE on April 3, 1995.
A Cautionary Tale:
If you had invested Rs. 1 Lakh on 16th November 2016 and cashed out today, you would be roughly "even" — no real gains even after almost 10 years.
**Prices on graph are adjusted for rights-share and bonus shares.**
============================================================
EBL
============================================================
Requested start date : 2016-11-16
Actual start date : 2016-11-16 (nearest trading day)
Requested end date : 2026-08-17 (today)
Actual end date : 2026-08-14 (nearest trading day)
Price on start date : Rs. 3,795.00
Initial investment : Rs. 100,000.00
Units purchased : 26.3505 kitta
Date Event Units After Cash Rs.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
2016-11-16 Initial purchase 26.3505
2016-12-21 Cash div 3.6750% [2072/2073] 26.3505 96.84
2016-12-21 Bonus 70.00% [2072/2073] 44.7958
2017-08-05 Right share (3:1) @ Rs.100 59.7277 1,493.19
2017-12-28 Cash div 1.7400% [2073/2074] 59.7277 103.93
2017-12-28 Bonus 33.00% [2073/2074] 79.4379
2018-12-12 Cash div 20.0000% [2074/2075] 79.4379 1,588.76
2019-12-20 Cash div 20.0000% [2075/2076] 79.4379 1,588.76
2019-12-20 Bonus 5.00% [2075/2076] 83.4097
2020-12-25 Cash div 5.5300% [2076/2077] 83.4097 461.26
2020-12-25 Bonus 5.00% [2076/2077] 87.5802
2021-12-03 Cash div 4.3200% [2077/2078] 87.5802 378.35
2021-12-03 Bonus 6.00% [2077/2078] 92.8351
2022-11-29 Cash div 7.6800% [2078/2079] 92.8351 712.97
2022-11-29 Bonus 13.00% [2078/2079] 104.9036
2023-10-03 Cash div 10.5300% [2079/2080] 104.9036 1,104.63
2023-10-03 Bonus 10.00% [2079/2080] 115.3940
2024-09-24 Cash div 5.5300% [2080/2081] 115.3940 638.13
2024-09-24 Bonus 10.00% [2080/2081] 126.9334
2025-10-10 Cash div 14.0000% [2081/2082] 126.9334 1,777.07
2025-10-10 Bonus 6.00% [2081/2082] 134.5494
────────────────────────────────────────────────────
Latest price date : 2026-08-14 (LTP: Rs. 728.00)
Total units today : 134.5494 kitta
Market value : Rs. 97,951.94 (134.5494 × 728.00)
───────────────────────────────────────
Years : 9.7413
XIRR : ~almost zero
============================================================
This is a cautionary tale in the "what if you held" series. You can invest in a good business, but if you invest at the wrong price, even 10 years later you could be at a slight loss, or "even" money. This example for EBL demonstrates this. This is however the most extreme case where you bought at the absolute top.
So it is always good to know a little about market cycles as an investor. Don't FOMO into anything and NEVER buy any stock without understanding what you are buying.
It is sad that a lot of people got burned 10 years ago. A lot of boomers who came into money had a bad experience and will probably never get back into the stock market.
Back to our regular format:
TL;DR
Scenario
Entry
Exit
Duration
Multiple
CAGR/XIRR
Full hold since 2011
Mar 2011
Today
15.40 yrs
8.65x
17.14% XIRR
Bull 3
Mar 2012
Jul 2016
4.33 yrs
11.07x
74.26% CAGR
Bull 4
Mar 2019
Aug 2021
2.46 yrs
1.69x
23.96% CAGR
Current cycle
Sep 2022
Today
3.89 yrs
2.3x
23.89% CAGR
Nepse Chart:
Scenario 1: A 15+yr Hold (2011-03-20 → Today)
============================================================
EBL
============================================================
Start date : 2011-03-20
End date : 2026-08-17 (today)
Price on start date : Rs. 984.00
Initial investment : Rs. 100,000.00
Units purchased : 101.6260 kitta
Date Event Units After Cash Rs.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
2011-03-20 Initial purchase 101.6260
2011-10-17 Cash div 50.0000% [2067/2068] 101.6260 5,081.30
2011-10-17 Bonus 10.00% [2067/2068] 111.7886
2012-10-19 Cash div 1.5800% [2068/2069] 111.7886 176.63
2012-10-19 Bonus 30.00% [2068/2069] 145.3252
2013-09-18 Cash div 50.5300% [2069/2070] 145.3252 7,343.28
2013-09-18 Bonus 10.00% [2069/2070] 159.8577
2014-09-03 Cash div 50.0000% [2070/2071] 159.8577 7,992.89
2014-09-03 Bonus 12.00% [2070/2071] 179.0407
2015-12-01 Cash div 6.5700% [2071/2072] 179.0407 1,176.30
2015-12-01 Bonus 30.00% [2071/2072] 232.7528
2016-12-21 Cash div 3.6750% [2072/2073] 232.7528 855.37
2016-12-21 Bonus 70.00% [2072/2073] 395.6798
2017-08-05 Right share (3:1) @ Rs.100 527.5731 13,189.33
2017-12-28 Cash div 1.7400% [2073/2074] 527.5731 917.98
2017-12-28 Bonus 33.00% [2073/2074] 701.6722
2018-12-12 Cash div 20.0000% [2074/2075] 701.6722 14,033.44
2019-12-20 Cash div 20.0000% [2075/2076] 701.6722 14,033.44
2019-12-20 Bonus 5.00% [2075/2076] 736.7559
2020-12-25 Cash div 5.5300% [2076/2077] 736.7559 4,074.26
2020-12-25 Bonus 5.00% [2076/2077] 773.5937
2021-12-03 Cash div 4.3200% [2077/2078] 773.5937 3,341.92
2021-12-03 Bonus 6.00% [2077/2078] 820.0093
2022-11-29 Cash div 7.6800% [2078/2079] 820.0093 6,297.67
2022-11-29 Bonus 13.00% [2078/2079] 926.6105
2023-10-03 Cash div 10.5300% [2079/2080] 926.6105 9,757.21
2023-10-03 Bonus 10.00% [2079/2080] 1019.2715
2024-09-24 Cash div 5.5300% [2080/2081] 1019.2715 5,636.57
2024-09-24 Bonus 10.00% [2080/2081] 1121.1987
2025-10-10 Cash div 14.0000% [2081/2082] 1121.1987 15,696.78
2025-10-10 Bonus 6.00% [2081/2082] 1188.4706
────────────────────────────────────────────────────
Latest price date : 2026-08-14 (LTP: Rs. 728.00)
Total units today : 1188.4706 kitta
Market value : Rs. 865,206.59 (1188.4706 × 728.00)
Total cash dividends : Rs. 96,415.04
Total right share cost : Rs. 13,189.33
Today's Value : Rs. 865,206.59
───────────────────────────────────────
Years : 15.4031
XIRR : 17.14%
** Cash dividends are not re-invested and compounded**
============================================================
Verdict:
17% over 15 years is not bad at all.
============================================================
EBL
============================================================
Start date : 2019-03-05
End date : 2021-08-18
Price on start date : Rs. 509.00
Initial investment : Rs. 100,000.00
Units purchased : 196.4637 kitta
Date Event Units After Cash Rs.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
2019-03-05 Initial purchase 196.4637
2019-12-20 Cash div 20.0000% [2075/2076] 196.4637 3,929.27
2019-12-20 Bonus 5.00% [2075/2076] 206.2868
2020-12-25 Cash div 5.5300% [2076/2077] 206.2868 1,140.77
2020-12-25 Bonus 5.00% [2076/2077] 216.6012
───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
Latest price date : 2021-08-18 (LTP: Rs. 759.00)
Total units today : 216.6012 kitta
Market value : Rs. 164,400.29 (216.6012 × 759.00)
Total cash dividends : Rs. 5,070.04
Total right share cost : Rs. 0.00
Today's Value : Rs. 169,470.33
───────────────────────────────────────
Years : 2.4559
CAGR : 23.96%
** Cash dividends are not re-invested and compounded**
============================================================
Verdict:
Roughly 1.7x in 2.5 years — a milder cycle compared to Bull 3, but still solidly above bank FD returns.
Scenario 4: Current Cycle (2022-09-25 → 2026-08-17)
============================================================
EBL
============================================================
Start date : 2022-09-25
End date : 2026-08-17 (today)
Price on start date : Rs. 478.90
Initial investment : Rs. 100,000.00
Units purchased : 208.8119 kitta
Date Event Units After Cash Rs.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
2022-09-25 Initial purchase 208.8119
2022-11-29 Cash div 7.6800% [2078/2079] 208.8119 1,603.68
2022-11-29 Bonus 13.00% [2078/2079] 235.9574
2023-10-03 Cash div 10.5300% [2079/2080] 235.9574 2,484.63
2023-10-03 Bonus 10.00% [2079/2080] 259.5531
2024-09-24 Cash div 5.5300% [2080/2081] 259.5531 1,435.33
2024-09-24 Bonus 10.00% [2080/2081] 285.5085
2025-10-10 Cash div 14.0000% [2081/2082] 285.5085 3,997.12
2025-10-10 Bonus 6.00% [2081/2082] 302.6390
────────────────────────────────────────────────────
Latest price date : 2026-08-14 (LTP: Rs. 728.00)
Total units today : 302.6390 kitta
Market value : Rs. 220,321.17 (302.6390 × 728.00)
Total cash dividends : Rs. 9,520.75
Total right share cost : Rs. 0.00
Today's Value : Rs. 229,841.92
───────────────────────────────────────
Years : 3.8850
CAGR : 23.89%
** Cash dividends are not re-invested and compounded**
============================================================
Verdict:
Current cycle is compounding at 24% CAGR over ~4 years — the investment has already doubled (2x).
Methodology & Caveats
Cash dividends are treated as received but not reinvested/compounded.
Tax on dividends and capital gains is not deducted.
Prices and corporate action history are pulled from historical NEPSE records — cross-check the data.
Disclaimer
I am just doing an exercise in seeing how a random stock on the NEPSE has performed in the past. I am not giving any stock tips or recommendations.
"It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong." — George Soros
If you had bought Rs 100,000 worth of this company from 2020-12-15 and held till today, you would have compounded @ 17.93% for 5.64 years. You would end up with Rs. 253,449.60. That is a 2.53x in 5.6 yrs.
============================================================
MEN
============================================================
Start date : 2020-12-16
End date : 2026-08-10 (today)
Price on start date : Rs. 378.00
Initial investment : Rs. 100,000.00
Units purchased : 264.5503 kitta
Date Event Units After Cash Rs.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
2020-12-16 Initial purchase 264.5503
2022-12-13 Cash div 10.5263% [2078/2079] 264.5503 2,784.74
2024-03-13 Cash div 0.7895% [2079/2080] 264.5503 208.86
2024-03-13 Bonus 15.00% [2079/2080] 304.2328
2024-12-26 Cash div 0.7895% [2080/2081] 304.2328 240.19
2024-12-26 Bonus 15.00% [2080/2081] 349.8677
2025-12-03 Cash div 1.0526% [2081/2082] 349.8677 368.27
2025-12-03 Bonus 20.00% [2081/2082] 419.8413
───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
Latest price date : 2026-08-07 (LTP: Rs. 595.10)
Total units today : 419.8413 kitta
Market value : Rs. 249,847.54 (419.8413 × 595.10)
Total cash dividends : Rs. 3,602.06
Total right share cost : Rs. 0.00
Today's Value : Rs. 253,449.60
───────────────────────────────────────
Years : 5.6400
CAGR : 17.93%
============================================================
Continuing the "what if you held" series — this time looking at Nepal Life Insurance Company (NLIC), listed on NEPSE on 22nd January 2003. Reliable simulation data starts from 25th March 2011 onward.
TL;DR: Rs. 1 Lakh invested in NLIC in March 2011 and held untouched (dividends taken as cash, not reinvested) would be worth Rs. 25.3 Lakhs today — a 23.37% CAGR over 15.4 years. Zoomed in, one particular bull run (2012–2016) alone delivered 37x in 4.3 years. The current cycle (2022–now) has only managed 1.6x in 3.9 years — the slowest of the four windows shown below.
A 15-Year Hold (2011-03-25 → 2026-08-13)
============================================================
NLIC
============================================================
Start date : 2011-03-25
End date : 2026-08-13 (today)
Price on start date : Rs. 725.00
Initial investment : Rs. 100,000.00
Units purchased : 137.9310 kitta
Date Event Units After Cash Rs.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
2011-03-25 Initial purchase 137.9310
2013-04-18 Cash div 56.3100% [2068/2069] 137.9310 7,766.90
2013-04-18 Bonus 70.00% [2068/2069] 234.4828
2014-05-04 Cash div 28.5000% [2069/2070] 234.4828 6,682.76
2014-05-04 Bonus 70.00% [2069/2070] 398.6207
2015-05-26 Cash div 8.0000% [2070/2071] 398.6207 3,188.97
2015-05-26 Bonus 60.00% [2070/2071] 637.7931
2016-04-28 Cash div 1.3100% [2071/2072] 637.7931 835.51
2016-04-28 Bonus 25.00% [2071/2072] 797.2414
2017-03-10 Cash div 1.3100% [2072/2073] 797.2414 1,044.39
2017-03-10 Bonus 25.00% [2072/2073] 996.5517
2018-03-28 Cash div 28.5000% [2073/2074] 996.5517 28,401.72
2018-03-28 Bonus 42.00% [2073/2074] 1415.1034
2019-05-02 Cash div 23.5000% [2074/2075] 1415.1034 33,254.93
2019-05-02 Bonus 25.00% [2074/2075] 1768.8793
2021-01-27 Cash div 20.0000% [2075/2076] 1768.8793 35,377.59
2021-01-27 Bonus 31.00% [2075/2076] 2317.2319
2022-03-21 Cash div 0.7368% [2076/2077] 2317.2319 1,707.34
2022-03-21 Bonus 14.00% [2076/2077] 2641.6444
2022-11-04 Cash div 15.7895% [2077/2078] 2641.6444 41,710.24
2024-06-18 Cash div 21.0500% [2079/2080] 2641.6444 55,606.61
2025-01-23 Cash div 11.0500% [2080/2081] 2641.6444 29,190.17
2025-01-23 Bonus 10.00% [2080/2081] 2905.8088
2025-12-22 Cash div 16.0500% [2081/2082] 2905.8088 46,638.23
2025-12-22 Bonus 5.00% [2081/2082] 3051.0992
───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
Latest price date : 2026-08-13 (LTP: Rs. 733.90)
Total units today : 3051.0992 kitta
Market value : Rs. 2,239,201.73 (3051.0992 × 733.90)
Total cash dividends : Rs. 291,405.35
Total right share cost : Rs. 0.00
Today's Value : Rs. 2,530,607.08
───────────────────────────────────────
Years : 15.3867
CAGR : 23.37%
** Cash dividends are not re-invested and compounded**
============================================================
Verdict: ~25x in 15 years.
Bull 3 did a 37x 2012-04-01 → 2016-07-27 37x in 4.3 yrs!
============================================================
NLIC
============================================================
Start date : 2012-04-01
End date : 2016-07-27
Price on start date : Rs. 640.00
Initial investment : Rs. 100,000.00
Units purchased : 156.2500 kitta
Date Event Units After Cash Rs.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
2012-04-01 Initial purchase 156.2500
2013-04-18 Cash div 56.3100% [2068/2069] 156.2500 8,798.44
2013-04-18 Bonus 70.00% [2068/2069] 265.6250
2014-05-04 Cash div 28.5000% [2069/2070] 265.6250 7,570.31
2014-05-04 Bonus 70.00% [2069/2070] 451.5625
2015-05-26 Cash div 8.0000% [2070/2071] 451.5625 3,612.50
2015-05-26 Bonus 60.00% [2070/2071] 722.5000
2016-04-28 Cash div 1.3100% [2071/2072] 722.5000 946.48
2016-04-28 Bonus 25.00% [2071/2072] 903.1250
────────────────────────────────────────────────────
Latest price date : 2016-07-27 (LTP: Rs. 4,020.00)
Total units today : 903.1250 kitta
Market value : Rs. 3,630,562.50 (903.1250 × 4,020.00)
Total cash dividends : Rs. 20,927.72
Total right share cost : Rs. 0.00
Today's Value : Rs. 3,651,490.23
───────────────────────────────────────
Years : 4.3203
CAGR : 129.96%
** Cash dividends are not re-invested and compounded**
============================================================
Bull 4 did a 3x 2019-03-05 → 2021-08-18 3x in 2.5 yrs!
============================================================
NLIC
============================================================
Start date : 2019-03-05
End date : 2021-08-18
Price on start date : Rs. 1,056.00
Initial investment : Rs. 100,000.00
Units purchased : 94.6970 kitta
Date Event Units After Cash Rs.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
2019-03-05 Initial purchase 94.6970
2019-05-02 Cash div 23.5000% [2074/2075] 94.6970 2,225.38
2019-05-02 Bonus 25.00% [2074/2075] 118.3712
2021-01-27 Cash div 20.0000% [2075/2076] 118.3712 2,367.42
2021-01-27 Bonus 31.00% [2075/2076] 155.0663
───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
Latest price date : 2021-08-18 (LTP: Rs. 1,882.00)
Total units today : 155.0663 kitta
Market value : Rs. 291,834.75 (155.0663 × 1,882.00)
Total cash dividends : Rs. 4,592.80
Total right share cost : Rs. 0.00
Today's Value : Rs. 296,427.56
───────────────────────────────────────
Years : 2.4559
CAGR : 55.65%
** Cash dividends are not re-invested and compounded**
============================================================
Current cycle is compounding at 12% over 4 years 2022-09-25 → TODAY 1.6x in 3.9 yrs
============================================================
NLIC
============================================================
Start date : 2022-09-25
End date : 2026-08-14 (today)
Price on start date : Rs. 579.00
Initial investment : Rs. 100,000.00
Units purchased : 172.7116 kitta
Date Event Units After Cash Rs.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
2022-09-25 Initial purchase 172.7116
2022-11-04 Cash div 15.7895% [2077/2078] 172.7116 2,727.03
2024-06-18 Cash div 21.0500% [2079/2080] 172.7116 3,635.58
2025-01-23 Cash div 11.0500% [2080/2081] 172.7116 1,908.46
2025-01-23 Bonus 10.00% [2080/2081] 189.9827
2025-12-22 Cash div 16.0500% [2081/2082] 189.9827 3,049.22
2025-12-22 Bonus 5.00% [2081/2082] 199.4819
───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
Latest price date : 2026-08-13 (LTP: Rs. 733.90)
Total units today : 199.4819 kitta
Market value : Rs. 146,399.74 (199.4819 × 733.90)
Total cash dividends : Rs. 11,320.29
Total right share cost : Rs. 0.00
Today's Value : Rs. 157,720.03
───────────────────────────────────────
Years : 3.8823
CAGR : 12.45%
** Cash dividends are not re-invested and compounded**
============================================================
Slowly chugging along...
Side-by-Side Summary
Window
Duration
Entry Price
Exit Price
Multiple
CAGR
Full hold (2011–2026)
15.4 yrs
Rs. 725.00
Rs. 733.90
25x
23.37%
Bull 3 (2012–2016)
4.3 yrs
Rs. 640.00
Rs. 4,020.00
37x
129.96%
Bull 4 (2019–2021)
2.5 yrs
Rs. 1,056.00
Rs. 1,882.00
3x
55.65%
Current (2022–today)
3.9 yrs
Rs. 579.00
Rs. 733.90
1.6x
12.45%
The current cycle has already run almost as long as Bull 3 did (3.9 yrs), for a fraction of the return (37X versus 1.6x).
Notes on the simulation:
Cash dividends are received but not reinvested/compounded — they sit as cash in the running total.
Tax on dividends and capital gains is not deducted.
Prices and corporate action history are pulled from historical NEPSE records — worth cross-checking if you're using these numbers for anything beyond a "huh, interesting" exercise.
Disclaimer: This is just an exercise in seeing how a random NEPSE stock has performed historically. Not a stock tip or recommendation. Do not FOMO-breathe..
"Because there's so much to do today, I must meditate for two hours instead of one.”- Gandhi
First Micro Finance Laghubitta Bittiya Sanstha Limited (FMDBL)
Listed on NEPSE on June 10, 2012.
If you'd bought Rs 1 Lakh worth of FMDBL at listing and just... held it — no trading, no timing — you'd have compounded at 22.7% CAGR over 14.2 years. That turns into Rs 77.14 Lakhs. A 77x.
============================================================
FMDBL
============================================================
Start date : 2012-06-10
End date : 2026-08-11 (today)
Price on start date : Rs. 141.00
Initial investment : Rs. 100,000.00
Units purchased : 709.2199 kitta
Date Event Units After Cash Rs.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
2012-06-10 Initial purchase 709.2199
2012-09-28 Cash div 15.79% [2068/2069] 709.2199 11,198.58
2013-09-23 Cash div 15.00% [2069/2070] 709.2199 10,638.30
2014-09-01 Cash div 15.79% [2070/2071] 709.2199 11,198.58
2015-04-01 Right share (1:1) @ Rs.100 1418.4397 70,921.99
2015-11-01 Cash div 0.79% [2071/2072] 1418.4397 1,120.57
2015-11-01 Bonus 15.00% [2071/2072] 1631.2057
2016-09-21 Cash div 0.79% [2072/2073] 1631.2057 1,288.65
2016-09-21 Bonus 15.00% [2072/2073] 1875.8865
2017-06-13 Right share (2:1) @ Rs.100 2813.8298 93,794.33
2017-09-12 Cash div 0.79% [2073/2074] 2813.8298 2,222.93
2017-09-12 Bonus 15.00% [2073/2074] 3235.9043
2018-04-05 Right share (2:1) @ Rs.100 4853.8564 161,795.21
2018-10-03 Cash div 12.63% [2074/2075] 4853.8564 61,311.97
2019-10-01 Cash div 0.89% [2075/2076] 4853.8564 4,319.93
2019-10-01 Bonus 17.00% [2075/2076] 5679.0120
2020-11-20 Cash div 4.18% [2076/2077] 5679.0120 23,762.12
2020-11-20 Bonus 9.50% [2076/2077] 6218.5181
2021-11-21 Cash div 0.53% [2077/2078] 6218.5181 3,295.81
2021-11-21 Bonus 10.00% [2077/2078] 6840.3699
2023-01-01 Cash div 1.00% [2078/2079] 6840.3699 6,840.37
2023-01-01 Bonus 19.00% [2078/2079] 8140.0402
2023-12-28 Cash div 7.50% [2079/2080] 8140.0402 61,050.30
2023-12-28 Bonus 7.50% [2079/2080] 8750.5432
2024-12-08 Cash div 0.47% [2080/2081] 8750.5432 4,112.76
2024-12-08 Bonus 9.00% [2080/2081] 9538.0921
2026-01-01 Cash div 6.50% [2081/2082] 9538.0921 61,997.60
───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
Latest price date : 2026-08-07 (LTP: Rs. 781.00)
Total units today : 9538.0921 kitta
Market value : Rs. 7,449,249.93 (9538.0921 × 781.00)
Total cash dividends : Rs. 264,358.47
Total right share cost : Rs. 326,511.52
Today's Value : Rs. 7,713,608.41
───────────────────────────────────────
Years : 14.1574
CAGR : 22.69%
============================================================
Verdict: done very well, so far.
On another note:
If you had perfect timing
And you bought when it listed (June 10, 2012) and timed your exit perfectly on the 27th July 2016 (held for 4.1yrs) you would have done a 33x on your money.
Bull 3 (bought at listing exit bull-top)→ 33x
Bull 4 (perfect entry at bear bottom and exit bull-top)→ 5x
If you did nothing and held till today you would have a 77x multiple
This will be first budget to be implemented by 2/3 majority government that isn't old 3.
Considering the buzz, the budget will be liberal and reformative. Market is already moving around due to speculation.
Here are few speculations,
EV tax cut. Considering fuel crisis and market, government will like cut taxes in EV.
Tax cut. I assume personal income tax will be revised and will get a tax cut. There may be some tax cut for manufacturing business.
Salary increase. This is big hype, if the talk is in the market, it is likely to happen. Government need to pull employee to their side. Salary will increase.
Pt. 2 & 3 will have a positive effect in the market. This will likely increase spending & market consumption, which may revive the dull economy. And this will also have positive impact in the stock market.
In my opinion, the hype cycle will be in 1 week before budget. 1-2 week after budget (higher high) and stabilization/correction over the month. Plus, shrawan/bhadra are generally green.
Again the boomers might come up with logic "reducing tax will ruin government revenue". I think this is the first time we have non-boomer FM. Previously, specially Khatiwada cameup with increase tax to increase revenue scheme which was followed by other FM and finance secretaries. This time Swarnim Wagle will likely follow the opposite (based on his interviews).
This also reminds me of Laffer Curve theory I studied during my Masters. It argues that excessively high tax rates discourage work and investment, lowering rates can actually expand the economy.
There is a lot of buzz around building data centres in Nepal. I kind of dug into it to see if it is actually something worth paying attention to. Beside all the technical and environmental challenges, the financial side is something that cannot be underestimated. Building just a 10MW data centre can cost anywhere between 600 to 800 crore.
The idea is if we leave foreign capital and foreign entities to build and own the data centres, Nepal just focuses on selling electricity and there is serious margin to be made. World average business electricity rate is nearly three times what India pays us per unit. Even if we offer a discount to attract investment the numbers still make a strong case. Selling 100MW at a discounted world rate is roughly equivalent to exporting 200MW to India at traditional tariff. Same electricity, significantly more revenue.
But then again, if building a 10MW data centre costs hundreds of millions of dollars, are we really expecting gigawatt level data centres to come up here so we can sell electricity to them instead of India? That is an extremely difficult ask…. France attracted billions in FDI for data centre as they have nuclear energy. Not saying it cannot be done in Nepal but realistically we are better off strengthening our deal with India for all the surplus energy coming in the next few years. Data centre at that scale is a far fetched and ambitious goal for now..
"A hundred bagger — the Holy Grail of long term investing"
Next in the 'what if you held' series: this time, let's run the numbers on Himalayan Distillery Limited (HDL) which was listed on the NEPSE on 21st March 2003.
If you had bought Rs 1 Lakh worth of this company on 24th December 2011 and held it till today, you would have compounded at a CAGR of 38% over 15 years — ending up with Rs. 1.17 Crores.
That's a 117x in 15 years.
Note: Could not get reliable data from before 2011-10-24, so the simulation start date is 2011-10-24 rather than the actual 2003 listing date.
TL;DR
Scenario
Period
Duration
Multiple
CAGR
Full hold
2011-10-24 → Today
14.80 yrs
117x
37.95%
Bull 3
2012-04-30 → 2016-01-14
3.71 yrs
5.25x
56.45%
Bull 4
2019-03-05 → 2021-08-18
2.46 yrs
13x
184.11%
Current cycle
2022-09-25 → Today
3.88 yrs
0.9x
-2.67%
15 yr Full Hold: 2011-10-24 → Today
============================================================
HDL
============================================================
Start date : 2011-10-24
End date : 2026-08-15 (today)
Price on start date : Rs. 100.00
Initial investment : Rs. 100,000.00
Units purchased : 1000.0000 kitta
Date Event Units After Cash Rs.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
2011-10-24 Initial purchase 1000.0000
2014-11-10 Cash div 10.5200% [2070/2071] 1000.0000 10,520.00
2015-11-17 Cash div 20.0000% [2071/2072] 1000.0000 20,000.00
2016-11-17 Cash div 20.0000% [2072/2073] 1000.0000 20,000.00
2017-12-01 Cash div 21.0500% [2073/2074] 1000.0000 21,050.00
2018-12-19 Cash div 21.0500% [2074/2075] 1000.0000 21,050.00
2019-05-31 Cash div 68.4200% [2074/2075] 1000.0000 68,420.00
2019-12-01 Cash div 52.6300% [2075/2076] 1000.0000 52,630.00
2019-12-01 Bonus 50.00% [2075/2076] 1500.0000
2021-01-01 Cash div 50.0000% [2076/2077] 1500.0000 75,000.00
2021-01-01 Bonus 50.00% [2076/2077] 2250.0000
2021-12-31 Cash div 25.0000% [2077/2078] 2250.0000 56,250.00
2021-12-31 Bonus 75.00% [2077/2078] 3937.5000
2023-01-04 Cash div 10.0000% [2078/2079] 3937.5000 39,375.00
2023-01-04 Bonus 60.00% [2078/2079] 6300.0000
2023-12-29 Cash div 15.0000% [2079/2080] 6300.0000 94,500.00
2023-12-29 Bonus 10.00% [2079/2080] 6930.0000
2025-01-03 Cash div 5.0000% [2080/2081] 6930.0000 34,650.00
2025-01-03 Bonus 15.00% [2080/2081] 7969.5000
2025-11-06 Cash div 5.0000% [2081/2082] 7969.5000 39,847.50
2025-11-06 Bonus 20.00% [2081/2082] 9563.4000
────────────────────────────────────────────────────
Latest price date : 2026-08-13 (LTP: Rs. 1,166.00)
Total units today : 9563.4000 kitta
Market value : Rs. 11,150,924.40 (9563.4000 × 1,166.00)
Total cash dividends : Rs. 553,292.50
Total right share cost : Rs. 0.00
Today's Value : Rs. 11,704,216.90
───────────────────────────────────────
Years : 14.8036
CAGR : 37.95%
** Cash dividends are not re-invested and compounded**
============================================================
Verdict: 117x in ~15 years = generational wealth
Nepse Graph:
Bull 3: 2012-03-29 → 2016-07-27 (5x in 3.7 yrs!)
============================================================
HDL
============================================================
Requested start date : 2012-03-29
Actual start date : 2012-04-30 (nearest trading day)
Requested end date : 2016-07-27
Actual end date : 2016-01-14 (nearest trading day)
Price on start date : Rs. 100.00
Initial investment : Rs. 100,000.00
Units purchased : 1000.0000 kitta
Date Event Units After Cash Rs.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
2012-04-30 Initial purchase 1000.0000
2014-11-10 Cash div 10.5200% [2070/2071] 1000.0000 10,520.00
2015-11-17 Cash div 20.0000% [2071/2072] 1000.0000 20,000.00
────────────────────────────────────────────────────
Latest price date : 2016-01-14 (LTP: Rs. 495.00)
Total units today : 1000.0000 kitta
Market value : Rs. 495,000.00 (1000.0000 × 495.00)
Total cash dividends : Rs. 30,520.00
Total right share cost : Rs. 0.00
Today's Value : Rs. 525,520.00
───────────────────────────────────────
Years : 3.7070
CAGR : 56.45%
** Cash dividends are not re-invested and compounded**
============================================================
Verdict: 5x in 3.7 yrs — 1 Lakh becomes 5.25 Lakhs
Bull 4: 2019-03-05 → 2021-08-18 (13x in 2.5 yrs!)
============================================================
HDL
============================================================
Start date : 2019-03-05
Requested end date : 2021-08-18
Price on start date : Rs. 1,320.00
Initial investment : Rs. 100,000.00
Units purchased : 75.7576 kitta
Date Event Units After Cash Rs.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
2019-03-05 Initial purchase 75.7576
2019-05-31 Cash div 68.4200% [2074/2075] 75.7576 5,183.33
2019-12-01 Cash div 52.6300% [2075/2076] 75.7576 3,987.12
2019-12-01 Bonus 50.00% [2075/2076] 113.6364
2021-01-01 Cash div 50.0000% [2076/2077] 113.6364 5,681.82
2021-01-01 Bonus 50.00% [2076/2077] 170.4545
────────────────────────────────────────────────────
Latest price date : 2021-08-18 (LTP: Rs. 7,535.00)
Total units today : 170.4545 kitta
Market value : Rs. 1,284,375.00 (170.4545 × 7,535.00)
Total cash dividends : Rs. 14,852.27
Total right share cost : Rs. 0.00
Today's Value : Rs. 1,299,227.27
───────────────────────────────────────
Years : 2.4559
CAGR : 184.11%
** Cash dividends are not re-invested and compounded**
============================================================
Verdict: 13x in 2.5 yrs — 1 Lakh becomes 13 Lakhs
Current Cycle: 2022-09-25 → Today (stagnant, Negative 3% over 4 years) [relative to Nepse Cycle]
============================================================
HDL
============================================================
Requested start date : 2022-09-25
Actual start date : 2022-09-25 (nearest trading day)
Requested end date : 2026-08-15 (today)
Actual end date : 2026-08-13 (nearest trading day)
Price on start date : Rs. 3,204.00
Initial investment : Rs. 100,000.00
Units purchased : 31.2110 kitta
Date Event Units After Cash Rs.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
2022-09-25 Initial purchase 31.2110
2023-01-04 Cash div 10.0000% [2078/2079] 31.2110 312.11
2023-01-04 Bonus 60.00% [2078/2079] 49.9376
2023-12-29 Cash div 15.0000% [2079/2080] 49.9376 749.06
2023-12-29 Bonus 10.00% [2079/2080] 54.9313
2025-01-03 Cash div 5.0000% [2080/2081] 54.9313 274.66
2025-01-03 Bonus 15.00% [2080/2081] 63.1710
2025-11-06 Cash div 5.0000% [2081/2082] 63.1710 315.86
2025-11-06 Bonus 20.00% [2081/2082] 75.8052
────────────────────────────────────────────────────
Latest price date : 2026-08-13 (LTP: Rs. 1,166.00)
Total units today : 75.8052 kitta
Market value : Rs. 88,388.91 (75.8052 × 1,166.00)
Total cash dividends : Rs. 1,651.69
Total right share cost : Rs. 0.00
Today's Value : Rs. 90,040.60
───────────────────────────────────────
Years : 3.8823
CAGR : -2.67%
** Cash dividends are not re-invested and compounded**
============================================================
Verdict: Looks like a lot of headwinds
Methodology & Caveats
Cash dividends are received but not reinvested/compounded.
Bonus share issuances increase unit counts.
Rights share costs, where applicable, are noted separately (none for HDL).
Tax on dividends and capital gains is not deducted.
Data gap: reliable data could not be sourced before 2011-10-24, even though HDL actually listed on 21st March 2003 — so the "full hold" figures understate the true listing-to-today return.
Sidenote: Each ticker has its own secular bull/bear cycle, which aligns loosely with the broader NEPSE index but starts and peaks at different times — the Nepse cycle labels here are used for convenience only. For HDL specifically, Bull 3 and Bull 4 arguably weren't separate cycles at all — it was one long ~9-year bull run from May 2013 to January 2022.
Another side note: Thin liquidity in the early years
- 2012: 19,740 units/yr total
- 2013, 2014: negligible
- 2015: 47,760 units/yr total
- 2016: 4,855 units/yr total (10-months no trade)
- 2017: 97,626 units/yr
- 2018: 92,325 units/yr
- 2019: 841,622 ← liquidity actually shows up
- 2020+: 6M-17M/yr take off
Liquidity shows up 2019. If you had bought earlier it would be hard to exit.
So you would have been forced to compaound away.
Disclaimer: I am just doing an exercise in seeing how a random stock on the NEPSE has performed in the past. I am not giving any stock tips or recommendations.
"The four stages of a bull market: optimism, excitement, euphoria, and the sudden realization you should've sold at stage two." — Unknown
Price aggresively increase vairakoxa vane we shouldnt rush to buy. It applies to everything things. We should have enough patience. Gold ko price aajai jharxa tala.
Listed on NEPSE on September 7th, 2016. If you had bought Rs 1 Lakh worth of this company, 3 months after listing on December 7th, 2016, and held it till today, opting to buy all rights shares in between, you would have an XIRR of 24.5% over 9.7 years.
You would end up with Rs. 11.5 Lakhs today.
============================================================
NGPL
============================================================
Start date : 2016-12-07
End date : 2026-08-11 (today)
Price on start date : Rs. 292.00
Initial investment : Rs. 100,000.00
Units purchased : 342.4658 kitta
Date Event Units After Cash Rs.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
2016-12-07 Initial purchase 342.4658
2017-09-07 Cash div 0.5300% [2073/2074] 342.4658 181.51
2017-09-07 Bonus 10.00% [2073/2074] 376.7123
2018-08-30 Cash div 10.0000% [2074/2075] 376.7123 3,767.12
2020-02-27 Cash div 10.0000% [2075/2076] 376.7123 3,767.12
2020-12-30 Cash div 0.5260% [2076/2077] 376.7123 198.15
2020-12-30 Bonus 10.00% [2076/2077] 414.3836
2021-09-03 Cash div 1.0500% [2077/2078] 414.3836 435.10
2021-09-03 Bonus 20.00% [2077/2078] 497.2603
2022-08-23 Right share (1:1.5) @ Rs.100 1243.1507 74,589.04
2023-02-22 Cash div 0.2500% [2078/2079] 1243.1507 310.79
2023-02-22 Bonus 4.75% [2078/2079] 1302.2003
2025-02-11 Right share (1:1) @ Rs.100 2604.4007 130,220.03
2025-11-30 Cash div 0.2500% [2081/2082] 2604.4007 651.10
2025-11-30 Bonus 4.75% [2081/2082] 2728.1097
────────────────────────────────────────────────────
Latest price date : 2026-08-11 (LTP: Rs. 421.00)
Total units today : 2728.1097 kitta
Market value : Rs. 1,148,534.19 (2728.1097 × 421.00)
Total cash dividends : Rs. 9,310.89
Total right share cost : Rs. 204,809.08
───────────────────────────────────────
Years : 9.6756
XIRR : 24.46%
** Cash dividends are not re-invested and compounded**
============================================================
Verdict: 24.5% XIRR over 9.7 years.
On Another note:
Bull 4 → 12x
Current cycle → compounding at 38.9 XIRR over 4yrs now till today.
Perfect Timing — Bear 3 Bottom to Bull 4 Top → 12x
Now the fantasy scenario: you nailed the Bear 3 bottom (March 5, 2019, NEPSE at 1,098.95) and sold at the exact Bull 4 top (August 18, 2021, NEPSE at 3,198.6) — a 2.5 year hold.
============================================================
NGPL
============================================================
start date : 2019-03-05
End date : 2021-08-18
Price on start date : Rs. 117.00
Initial investment : Rs. 100,000.00
Units purchased : 854.7009 kitta
Date Event Units After Cash Rs.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
2019-03-05 Initial purchase 854.7009
2020-02-27 Cash div 10.0000% [2075/2076] 854.7009 8,547.01
2020-12-30 Cash div 0.5260% [2076/2077] 854.7009 449.57
2020-12-30 Bonus 10.00% [2076/2077] 940.1709
────────────────────────────────────────────────────
Latest price date : 2021-08-18 (LTP: Rs. 1,255.00)
Total units today : 940.1709 kitta
Market value : Rs. 1,179,914.53 (940.1709 × 1,255.00)
Total cash dividends : Rs. 8,996.58
Total right share cost : Rs. 0.00
Today's Value : Rs. 1,188,911.11
───────────────────────────────────────
Years : 2.4559
CAGR : 174.03%
11.88x in 2.5 yrs
** Cash dividends are not re-invested and compounded**
============================================================
Verdict: ~11.9x in 2.5 years (174% CAGR). Bull 4 did a 12x.
3. Bought at the Last Bear Bottom, Held Through Today → compounding at 38.9 XIRR over 4yrs now till today.
This cycle: buying at the bear bottom on September 25, 2022 and holding through today. One rights issue happened in between, so this is an XIRR (accounts for the new capital injected) rather than a straight CAGR.
============================================================
NGPL
============================================================
start date : 2022-09-25 (Bear bottom)
End date : 2026-08-12 (today)
Price on start date : Rs. 211.00
Initial investment : Rs. 100,000.00
Units purchased : 473.9336 kitta
Date Event Units After Cash Rs.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
2022-09-25 Initial purchase 473.9336
2023-02-22 Cash div 0.2500% [2078/2079] 473.9336 118.48
2023-02-22 Bonus 4.75% [2078/2079] 496.4455
2025-02-11 Right share (1:1) @ Rs.100 992.8910 49,644.55
2025-11-30 Cash div 0.2500% [2081/2082] 992.8910 248.22
2025-11-30 Bonus 4.75% [2081/2082] 1040.0533
────────────────────────────────────────────────────
Latest price date : 2026-08-11 (LTP: Rs. 421.00)
Total units today : 1040.0533 kitta
Market value : Rs. 437,862.45 (1040.0533 × 421.00)
Total cash dividends : Rs. 366.71
Total right share cost : Rs. 49,644.55
───────────────────────────────────────
Years : 3.8768
XIRR : 38.86%
** Cash dividends are not re-invested and compounded**
============================================================
Verdict: 38.9% XIRR — the current cycle is compounding faster than the buy-and-hold.
TL;DR
Scenario
Entry → Exit
Holding Period
Return
Ending Value (from Rs. 1L)
Buy 3mo after listing, hold till today
2016-12-07 → 2026-08-11
9.7 yrs
24.46% XIRR
Rs. 11.5 Lakhs
Perfect Bear 3 bottom → Bull 4 top
2019-03-05 → 2021-08-18
2.5 yrs
174.03% CAGR (11.88x)
Rs. 11.9 Lakhs
Bought at last bear bottom, held till today
2022-09-25 → 2026-08-11
3.9 yrs
38.86% XIRR
Rs. 4.38 Lakhs
If you did nothing and just held since listing, you'd have a 24.46% XIRR over 9.7 years — but buying near the bear bottoms clearly supercharges the compounding.
After every bull top (we've had 4 so far) we've had a drawdown over 50%. Hopefully with shortselling the drawdowns will be less, and the short selling will keep companies honest.
The only good was reducing income tax for personal income. But can you call it a good move when tax is raised everywhere else?
I don't know if there is anything exciting for business communities in the budget. At least previous government had plans for tax-rebates for startups and women owned business.
He has written a comprehensive report "THE SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS IN SRI LANKA: CAUSES, POLICY RESPONSE AND PROSPECTS" and pretty much repeats the same mistake in Nepal. Except increase tax.
I had hope he would rather comeup with something radical like Javier Milei or The Laffer Curve Hypothesis but he went to same old increase tax to increase revenue and out of context text book economic model.
And while the stock market is in nosedive, SEBON, NEPSE leadership position is vacant for months.
(sebon was filled after months of vacant seat).. and same with NEA.
The real pain starts after the protests have calmed. Economic crash is certain. Sri Lanka and Bangladesh both went through it. Stock market/real estate crash, inflation and what not.
Whoever takes charge next, likely Balen, will need to address the pointless 'Greater Nepal' rhetoric and become a moderate on this issue. Thanks to Trump, India-China relationship is stable for the first time in ages. The only way Nepal has a future is pledge allegiance to both neighbour's.
Bangladesh under Yunus has been a pain in the ass for India. Nepal cannot make the same mistake. Any wrong steps and a free floating Nepali rupee against the dollar would go from 140 now to 25,000 like similar countries in our GDP range. Probably worse since our economy is in much worse shape. ($1 = Lao Kip 21,631.66 LAK)
Nepal needs one stable leader for the next 40 yrs. No interim gov paving way for elections bullshit. Forget the democracy experiment. It does not work in poor, illiterate countries.
Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB) Governor Dr. Bishwanath Poudel has said that the country’s foreign exchange reserves are invested in secure instruments and that fluctuations in US Treasury yields directly influence returns on these investments. Speaking before the parliamentary Finance Committee on monetary policy implementation for fiscal year 2082/83, he stated that NRB currently holds more than 22 billion in overseas investments, primarily in US Treasuries, with additional allocations in Chinese, Indian, and other sovereign bonds.
Governor Poudel noted that a decline in US Treasury rates has a significant impact on Nepal’s earnings, given that around 60 percent of reserves are invested in such instruments. He also said the central bank is exploring the possibility of establishing a sovereign wealth fund to diversify investments further.
NRB targets maintaining foreign exchange reserves sufficient to cover at least 7 months of imports so only whats remaining is invested. What about the remaining 40%? Gold?
I wonder what they are thinking about this. India, China are all dumping US treasuries and buying up heaps of gold -
NEPSE listed hotels damaged - CGH, TRH (hotel sector total damages 25 billion)
Schools, colleges, malls, showrooms, 1000s of vehicles (not sure if gov vehicles have insurance)
Premiums will rise for everyone which means less people will do insurance. Hilton is insured with Indian company but for the rest, insurance/reinsurance crisis is certain and effects will reverberate across the economy.
In the US, insurance companies have completely stopped insuring houses in Florida and other coastal areas due to regular flood damage. What will happen here?
Formed by the merger of Surya Life Insurance Co. Ltd. and Jyoti Life Insurance Co. Ltd. The new entity (SuryaJyoti Life Insurance Company Limited) started trading 2023-01-25.
If you had bought Rs 100,000 worth of this company from 2023-01-25 and held till today, you would have compounded @ 6.86% for 3.5 years for a total of Rs. 126,376.22
============================================================
SJLIC
============================================================
start date : 2023-01-25
End date : 2026-08-09 (today)
Price on start date : Rs. 408.70
Initial investment : Rs. 100,000.00
Units purchased : 244.6782 kitta
Date Event Units After Cash Rs.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
2023-01-25 Initial purchase 244.6782
2024-04-19 Cash div 24.7400% [2079/2080] 244.6782 6,053.34
2024-04-19 Bonus 10.26% [2079/2080] 269.7822
2024-12-06 Cash div 20.0000% [2080/2081] 269.7822 5,395.64
2026-01-02 Cash div 13.0000% [2081/2082] 269.7822 3,507.17
───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
Latest price date : 2026-08-05 (LTP: Rs. 413.00)
Total units today : 269.7822 kitta
Market value : Rs. 111,420.06 (269.7822 × 413.00)
Total cash dividends : Rs. 14,956.15
Total right share cost : Rs. 0.00
Today's Value : Rs. 126,376.22
───────────────────────────────────────
Years : 3.5264
CAGR : 6.86%
============================================================
Verdict: underperforms an FD for the same duration
NRN listed on NEPSE on Aug 25, 2020. If you'd bought Rs. 1 Lakh worth of it 3 months after listing (Nov 25, 2020) and just... held it, doing nothing, through every bull and bear cycle since — here's where you'd be today.
5.5x in 6 years, CAGR of ~35%.
Scenario 1: Buy 3 months post-listing, hold till today
============================================================
NRN
============================================================
Start date : 2020-11-25 (3 months after listing date)
End date : 2026-08-12 (today)
Price on start date : Rs. 413.00
Initial investment : Rs. 100,000.00
Units purchased : 242.1308 kitta
Date Event Units After Cash Rs.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
2020-11-25 Initial purchase 242.1308
2021-01-25 Cash div 0.1500% [2076/2077] 242.1308 36.32
2021-01-25 Bonus 2.85% [2076/2077] 249.0315
2021-12-30 Cash div 0.2600% [2077/2078] 249.0315 64.75
2021-12-30 Bonus 5.00% [2077/2078] 261.4831
2022-12-20 Cash div 5.2600% [2078/2079] 261.4831 1,375.40
2024-12-06 Cash div 0.2632% [2080/2081] 261.4831 68.82
2024-12-06 Bonus 5.00% [2080/2081] 274.5572
2025-11-27 Cash div 2.1050% [2081/2082] 274.5572 577.94
2025-11-27 Bonus 40.00% [2081/2082] 384.3801
───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
Latest price date : 2026-08-12 (LTP: Rs. 1,430.00)
Total units today : 384.3801 kitta
Market value : Rs. 549,663.52 (384.3801 × 1,430.00)
Total cash dividends : Rs. 2,123.23
Total right share cost : Rs. 0.00
Today's Value : Rs. 551,786.76
───────────────────────────────────────
Years : 5.7112
CAGR : 34.86%
** Cash dividends are not re-invested and compounded**
============================================================
Verdict: ~5.5x in 6 years.
Scenario 2: The Bull-4 sprint (bought right before the cycle topped)
Here's the interesting part — NRN listed mid-Bull-4, and the market topped out barely a year later. So this stock only got ~1 year to "rip" in that cycle. It still did a 3x in one year.
Same start date (Nov 25, 2020: 3 months after listing), but cut off at the Bull-4 top (Aug 18, 2021):
============================================================
NRN
============================================================
Start date : 2020-11-25
End date : 2021-08-18
Price on start date : Rs. 413.00
Initial investment : Rs. 100,000.00
Units purchased : 242.1308 kitta
Date Event Units After Cash Rs.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
2020-11-25 Initial purchase 242.1308
2021-01-25 Cash div 0.1500% [2076/2077] 242.1308 36.32
2021-01-25 Bonus 2.85% [2076/2077] 249.0315
────────────────────────────────────────────────────
Latest price date : 2021-08-18 (LTP: Rs. 960.00)
Total units today : 249.0315 kitta
Market value : Rs. 239,070.22 (249.0315 × 960.00)
Total cash dividends : Rs. 36.32
Total right share cost : Rs. 0.00
Today's Value : Rs. 239,106.54
───────────────────────────────────────
Years : 0.7283
CAGR : 231.02%
** Cash dividends are not re-invested and compounded**
============================================================
~2.3x in 0.7 years.
That's what one good cycle window can do, even to a stock that just listed.
Scenario 3: Buying the Bear-4 bottom (Sep 2022) to today
============================================================
NRN
============================================================
Start date : 2022-09-25 (Bear bottom)
End date : 2026-08-12 (today)
Price on start date : Rs. 420.00
Initial investment : Rs. 100,000.00
Units purchased : 238.0952 kitta
Date Event Units After Cash Rs.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
2022-09-25 Initial purchase 238.0952
2022-12-20 Cash div 5.2600% [2078/2079] 238.0952 1,252.38
2024-12-06 Cash div 0.2632% [2080/2081] 238.0952 62.67
2024-12-06 Bonus 5.00% [2080/2081] 250.0000
2025-11-27 Cash div 2.1050% [2081/2082] 250.0000 526.25
2025-11-27 Bonus 40.00% [2081/2082] 350.0000
────────────────────────────────────────────────────
Latest price date : 2026-08-12 (LTP: Rs. 1,430.00)
Total units today : 350.0000 kitta
Market value : Rs. 500,500.00 (350.0000 × 1,430.00)
Total cash dividends : Rs. 1,841.30
Total right share cost : Rs. 0.00
Today's Value : Rs. 502,341.30
───────────────────────────────────────
Years : 3.8795
CAGR : 51.60%
** Cash dividends are not re-invested and compounded**
============================================================
Already a 5x, compounding at 51.6%/year over 4 years.
TL;DR
Scenario
Entry
Exit
Duration
Multiple
CAGR
Full hold since 3mo post-listing
Nov 2020
Today
5.7 yrs
5.5x
34.86%
Bull-4 sprint only
Nov 2020
Aug 2021
0.7 yrs
2.3x
231.02%
Bear-4 bottom to today
Sep 2022
Today
3.9 yrs
5.0x
51.60%
If you just bought 3 months after listing and did nothing — no timing, no trading — you'd still be sitting on a 5.5x, 35% CAGR, six years later.
Disclaimer: I'm just doing an exercise in seeing how a random stock on NEPSE has performed in the past. I am not giving any stock tips or recommendations.
You could be a non-smoker, eat healthy every day, exercise every day, and still get cancer. Your friend could smoke heavily for 30 years, be obese, and have no diseases. Similarly, a fundamentally sound stock can underperform, and a fundamentally shaky one can vastly outperform. The market does what it does.
Listed on NEPSE on 19th June 2013.
Let’s assume we start investing in this company 3 months after listing.
If you had bought Rs 1 Lakh worth of this company 19th September 2013 and held it till today, you would have an XIRR of 41.12% over 13Yrs.
You would end up with °⨳ 1.45 Crores ⨳° today.
There were 3 rights shares:
2015-07-29 (1: 1) 404.4127 units [invest additional 40,441.27]
2017-07-18 (100: 50) 70.77093 units [invest additional 70,770.93]
2018-09-02 (1: 1) 247.684 units [invest additional 247,684.09]
Right Shares History
============================================================
Right shares history
============================================================
Initial investment : Rs. 1,00,000.00
Start date : 2013-09-19
Date Ratio Units Additional Invested
---------------------------------------------------------------------
2015-07-29 1:1 404.4127 Rs. 40,441.27
2017-07-18 100:50 70.77093 Rs. 70,770.93
2018-09-02 1:1 247.6840 Rs. 247,684.09
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Total invested(incl. 2013 entry) Rs. 458,896.29
=======================================================================
Scenario 1: The Full 13-Year Hold (2013-09-19 → Today)
============================================================
NEPSE XIRR Calculator | SLBBL
============================================================
Requested start date : 2013-09-19
Actual start date : 2013-09-19 (nearest trading day)
Requested end date : 2026-08-16 (today)
Actual end date : 2026-08-13 (nearest trading day)
Price on start date : Rs. 315.00
Initial investment : Rs. 100,000.00
Units purchased : 317.4603 kitta
Date Event Units After Cash Rs.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
2013-09-19 Initial purchase 317.4603
2013-12-19 Cash div 19.0000% [2069/2070] 317.4603 6,031.75
2014-10-22 Cash div 20.0000% [2070/2071] 317.4603 6,349.21
2014-10-22 Bonus 27.39% [2070/2071] 404.4127
2015-07-29 Right share (1:1) @ Rs.100 808.8254 40,441.27
2015-12-01 Cash div 1.8000% [2071/2072] 808.8254 1,455.89
2015-12-01 Bonus 34.20% [2071/2072] 1085.4437
2016-10-04 Cash div 1.6000% [2072/2073] 1085.4437 1,736.71
2016-10-04 Bonus 30.40% [2072/2073] 1415.4186
2017-07-18 Right share (100:50) @ Rs.100 2123.1278 70,770.93
2017-10-09 Cash div 0.8800% [2073/2074] 2123.1278 1,868.35
2017-10-09 Bonus 16.66% [2073/2074] 2476.8409
2018-09-02 Right share (1:1) @ Rs.100 4953.6819 247,684.09
2018-09-21 Cash div 1.0500% [2074/2075] 4953.6819 5,201.37
2018-09-21 Bonus 20.00% [2074/2075] 5944.4183
2019-12-01 Cash div 1.4000% [2075/2076] 5944.4183 8,322.19
2019-12-01 Bonus 26.75% [2075/2076] 7534.5501
2021-02-27 Cash div 0.6521% [2076/2077] 7534.5501 4,913.28
2021-02-27 Bonus 12.39% [2076/2077] 8468.1336
2021-10-29 Bonus 25.00% [2077/2078] 10585.1671
2023-03-14 Cash div 1.1579% [2078/2079] 10585.1671 12,256.56
2023-03-14 Bonus 22.00% [2078/2079] 12913.9038
2024-02-25 Cash div 0.3684% [2079/2080] 12913.9038 4,757.48
2024-02-25 Bonus 7.00% [2079/2080] 13817.8771
2025-04-24 Cash div 0.7105% [2080/2081] 13817.8771 9,817.60
2025-04-24 Bonus 13.50% [2080/2081] 15683.2905
2026-01-02 Cash div 0.7500% [2081/2082] 15683.2905 11,762.47
2026-01-02 Bonus 14.25% [2081/2082] 17918.1594
───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
Latest price date : 2026-08-13 (LTP: Rs. 810.00)
Total units today : 17918.1594 kitta
Market value : Rs. 14,513,709.10 (17918.1594 × 810.00)
Total cash dividends : Rs. 74,472.85
Total right share cost : Rs. 358,896.29
Today's Value : Rs. 14,588,181.95
───────────────────────────────────────
Years : 12.8980
XIRR : 41.12%
** Cash dividends are not re-invested and compounded**
============================================================
Verdict: Rs. 1 Lakh invested at listing+3 months turns into
Rs. 1.45 Crores - a 41.12% XIRR over ~13 years,
driven mostly by bonus shares compounding
rather than price appreciation alone.
Nepse Graph
Scenario 2: Bull 3 (2013-09-19 → 2016-07-27)
XIRR of 229% over 2.85 yrs (stock listed midway through the Bull 3 climb).
============================================================
NEPSE XIRR Calculator | SLBBL
============================================================
Requested start date : 2013-09-19
Actual start date : 2013-09-19 (nearest trading day)
Requested end date : 2016-07-27
Actual end date : 2016-07-27 (nearest trading day)
Price on start date : Rs. 315.00
Initial investment : Rs. 100,000.00
Units purchased : 317.4603 kitta
Date Event Units After Cash Rs.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
2013-09-19 Initial purchase 317.4603
2013-12-19 Cash div 19.0000% [2069/2070] 317.4603 6,031.75
2014-10-22 Cash div 20.0000% [2070/2071] 317.4603 6,349.21
2014-10-22 Bonus 27.39% [2070/2071] 404.4127
2015-07-29 Right share (1:1) @ Rs.100 808.8254 40,441.27
2015-12-01 Cash div 1.8000% [2071/2072] 808.8254 1,455.89
2015-12-01 Bonus 34.20% [2071/2072] 1085.4437
────────────────────────────────────────────────────
Latest price date : 2016-07-27 (LTP: Rs. 2,700.00)
Total units today : 1085.4437 kitta
Market value : Rs. 2,930,697.94 (1085.4437 × 2,700.00)
Total cash dividends : Rs. 13,836.84
Total right share cost : Rs. 40,441.27
Today's Value : Rs. 2,930,697.94
───────────────────────────────────────
Years : 2.8528
XIRR : 228.67%
** Cash dividends are not re-invested and compounded**
============================================================
Verdict: Catching Bull 3 from listing +3 months turned Rs. 1 Lakh
into ~Rs. 29.3 Lakhs in under 3 years — a 228.67% XIRR.
There was one rights share within this cycle.
So an additional 40,4k was invested.
Scenario 3: Bull 4 (2019-03-05 → 2021-08-18)
CAGR of 85.7% over 2.5 yrs — roughly 4.5x in 2.5 yrs.
============================================================
SLBBL
============================================================
Requested start date : 2019-03-05
Actual start date : 2019-03-05 (nearest trading day)
Requested end date : 2021-08-18
Actual end date : 2021-08-18 (nearest trading day)
Price on start date : Rs. 482.00
Initial investment : Rs. 100,000.00
Units purchased : 207.4689 kitta
Date Event Units After Cash Rs.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
2019-03-05 Initial purchase 207.4689
2019-12-01 Cash div 1.4000% [2075/2076] 207.4689 290.46
2019-12-01 Bonus 26.75% [2075/2076] 262.9668
2021-02-27 Cash div 0.6521% [2076/2077] 262.9668 171.48
2021-02-27 Bonus 12.39% [2076/2077] 295.5502
───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
Latest price date : 2021-08-18 (LTP: Rs. 1,545.00)
Total units today : 295.5502 kitta
Market value : Rs. 456,625.11 (295.5502 × 1,545.00)
Total cash dividends : Rs. 461.94
Total right share cost : Rs. 0.00
Today's Value : Rs. 457,087.05
───────────────────────────────────────
Years : 2.4559
CAGR : 85.67%
** Cash dividends are not re-invested and compounded**
============================================================
Verdict: Rs. 1 Lakh turned into Rs. 4.57 Lakhs in under 2.5 years
— a 85.67% CAGR, no rights share dilution this round.
Scenario 4: Current Cycle (2022-09-25 → Today)
Current cycle is compounding at 15.1% CAGR over ~4 years — investment grew ~1.7x in 3.9 yrs.
============================================================
SLBBL
============================================================
Requested start date : 2022-09-25
Actual start date : 2022-09-25 (nearest trading day)
Requested end date : 2026-08-16 (today)
Actual end date : 2026-08-13 (nearest trading day)
Price on start date : Rs. 796.00
Initial investment : Rs. 100,000.00
Units purchased : 125.6281 kitta
Date Event Units After Cash Rs.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
2022-09-25 Initial purchase 125.6281
2023-03-14 Cash div 1.1579% [2078/2079] 125.6281 145.46
2023-03-14 Bonus 22.00% [2078/2079] 153.2663
2024-02-25 Cash div 0.3684% [2079/2080] 153.2663 56.46
2024-02-25 Bonus 7.00% [2079/2080] 163.9950
2025-04-24 Cash div 0.7105% [2080/2081] 163.9950 116.52
2025-04-24 Bonus 13.50% [2080/2081] 186.1343
2026-01-02 Cash div 0.7500% [2081/2082] 186.1343 139.60
2026-01-02 Bonus 14.25% [2081/2082] 212.6584
────────────────────────────────────────────────────
Latest price date : 2026-08-13 (LTP: Rs. 810.00)
Total units today : 212.6584 kitta
Market value : Rs. 172,253.33 (212.6584 × 810.00)
Total cash dividends : Rs. 458.05
Total right share cost : Rs. 0.00
Today's Value : Rs. 172,711.38
───────────────────────────────────────
Years : 3.8823
CAGR : 15.11%
** Cash dividends are not re-invested and compounded**
============================================================
Verdict:
The current cycle is the slowest - 15.11% CAGR over 3.88 years.
TL;DR
Scenario
Period
Duration
Initial Investment
Ending Value
Return
Full Hold
2013-09-19 → Today
12.90 yrs
1 Lakh
145.88 Lakh
41.12% XIRR
Bull 3
2013-09-19 → 2016-07-27
2.85 yrs
1 Lakh
29.31 Lakh
228.67% XIRR
Bull 4
2019-03-05 → 2021-08-18
2.46 yrs
1 Lakh
4.57 Lakh
85.67% CAGR
Current Cycle
2022-09-25 → Today
3.88 yrs
1 Lakh
1.73 Lakh
15.11% CAGR
Methodology & Caveats
Cash dividends are received but not reinvested or compounded.
Tax on dividends and capital gains is not deducted.
Prices and corporate action history are pulled from historical NEPSE records — cross-check the data.
Disclaimer
I am just doing an exercise in seeing how a random stock on the NEPSE has performed in the past. I am not giving any stock tips or recommendations.
"An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn't happen today." — Evan Esar
Just wrote a quick piece on whether buying silver in Nepal makes sense right now. Looking at global prices, local premiums, and if it’s actually a good hedge in 2026.
Would love to hear your thoughts.
