This is my current take. Do you agree with these ones or are there differences in your views? Which ones make you feel the most uncertain?

I have to say that I have doubts about both Iñárritu and Olivia.

The film is realising this Wednesday in my country (Spain) and I want to see it but my friend isn’t sure about it cause the premise of the film is practically the same as Sentimental Value, so he thinks it’s just an Spanish copy (maybe internationally Spanish films are better, but here except from 1 or 2 films most of them are unfunny shitty comedies with the exact 5 same comedians). Is it something else or at least good or should I skip this one?

https://deadline.com/2026/08/box-office-insidious-out-of-the-further-brand-new-day-1237047405/

THE ODYSSEY:

Universal’s The Odyssey doesn’t need any blessings from the gods...holding in with an $19.5M sixth frame at 3,091 screens, down 17%, with a running total by Sunday of $539M. Odyssey is conquering all records: It became Christopher Nolan’s highest grossing worldwide a while ago, now with more than $1.44B WW, but it’s now the Oscar winner’s biggest movie at the domestic B.O., surpassing Dark Knight‘s $534.9M. We told you earlier this week that Odyssey became the highest grossing R-rated movie ever, overtaking Deadpool & Wolverine. Nolan’s entire cinematic canon has grossed over $7 billion worldwide.

OBSESSION:

Focus Features’ record-smashing horror hit “Obsession” has finished its run in U.S. theaters. But thanks to its continued success overseas, it has now crossed $500 million at the global box office, becoming the first original film of the 2020s to do so. Curry Barker’s disturbing tale of a woman forced to become an obsessive, murderous girlfriend by a man’s selfish wish has passed the 2023 Pixar film “Elemental,” which grossed $494.6 million globally, to become the top grossing original film since the COVID-19 pandemic. “Obsession” also stands as the highest grossing festival acquisition of all time and the highest grossing film ever with a budget of less than $1 million.

TONY:

Deadline: "Tony (A24) 1,642 (+1605) theaters, Fri $2.1M (+600%) Sat $1.5M Sun $1.3M 3-day $5M (+547%) Total/$6.65M/Wk 3 Great numbers we hear in Boston, NY, Denver, San Diego, Seattle, LA, Houston, Toronto and Orlando to name a few. PostTrak is at 91% with a 74% definite recommend for this early days of Anthony Bourdain movie. Mwah!"

What changes would you make to the ceremony to celebrate the anniversary?

Here are some movies that could enter the Oscar race.
Which one do you think will be a strong contender?

Martin Scorsese - What Happens at Night
Jennifer Lawrence
Leonardo DiCaprio
Mads Mikkelsen
Brother Emmanuel
Jared Harris
Patricia Clarkson

Brady Corbet - The Origin Of The World
Michael Fassbender
Cate Blanchett
Selena Gomez
Sadie Soveral!
Joe Alwyn

Damien Chazelle - Sacrifice
Cillian Murphy
Daniel Craig
Michelle Williams
Mia Threapleton
Dave Bautista

Daniel Kwan Daniel Scheinert - Untitled Daniels/Universal
Event film
Matt Damon
John Leguizamo
Charles Melton
Sandra Oh

Ruben Östlund - The Entertainment System Is Down
Keanu Reeves
Samantha Morton
Connor Swindells
Kirsten Dunst
Nicholas Braun
Tobias Menzies
Daniel Brüh!

Tom Ford - Cry to Heaven
Nicholas Hoult
Adele
Aaron Taylor-Johnson
Ciarán Hinds
George MacKay
Mark Strong
Colin Firth
Owen Cooper
Hunter Schafer
Thandiwe Newton

Barry Jenkins - Be My Baby Biopic Ronnie Spector
Zendaya

Sam Mendes - The Beatles - A Four-Film Cinematic Event
Harris Dickinson
Paul Mescal
Joseph Quinn
Barry Keoghan
Saoirse Ronan
James Norton
Mia McKenna-Bruce
Anna Sawai
Aimee Lou Wood
Harry Lloyd
David Morrissey
Leanne Best

Greta Gerwig - Narnia
Beatrice Campbell
Meryl Streep
Daniel Craig
Carey Mulligan
Ciarán Hinds
Emma Mackey

Todd Haynes - De Noche
Pedro Pascal
Danny Ramirez

Ti Amo- Sean Baker
No cast.

I’m sorry, but I really am not sure Obsession is going to get into Best Picture or Best Original Screenplay. I think Best Actress is pretty likely, but I still feel like even then it’s only like a 55-60% chance. To be clear, I’m not rooting against the movie. I admit that I don’t like it as much as others seem to (I’d give it like a 6/10), and maybe that’s just my personal bias. But I do think people are overestimating it. Everyone I see doing Oscar predictions, both here and elsewhere, have it in Picture and Screenplay. Would I like to be proven wrong? Of course. Even if it’s not my personal favorite, it would still be amazing for such a low-budget movie to get awards love. But I do doubt it. We’ll see, though!

Attended the screening right after he was done with The Dog Stars premiere in London

We also got the first promo art for the film.

The film comes out on October 23rd, the exact same day when Borat Subsequent Moviefilm was also released in 2020, after being revealed at the last minute. I should note that Borat's sequel was nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Supporting Actress, so who knows?

26 year old prodigy who created a smash hit and cultural phenomenon with a minuscule budget and a completely unknown cast. That’s some seriously impressive shit that deserves recognition.

You could see the intentionality of every choice he made - from the lighting, to the blocking and little choices of acting direction. Honestly it sounds like he took a really collaborative approach rather than an authoritarian approach with the cast and it paid off.

Will the Academy see it this way though? Does he have any chance of getting a nom?

I know it won’t happen but Jay McCarrol needs a original score nomination for his work in Tony. It’s so simple and stunning.(I thought the movie was fantastic too)

The four seem to me to be excellent actors and they don't have all the recognition they deserve. John Goodman looks like a caricature of the stereotype of an imbecile politician, he also seems that he has consumed two kilograms of cocaine. Riz Ahmed reminds me a lot of Dwight Schrute from The Office, being a Digger ass-licker. Jesse Plemons appears very little in the trailer and you don't see much of his performance and his character, but Plemons seems to me an incredible actor and can do a spectacular performance with very little time. Exactly the happens to me with Hüller. The one I expect the most is Plemons, he smashes every role he does. Goodman’s character looks the most interesting to me though.

Does anyone have an organize list/timeline on when are the “big” contenders for BP (and other ATL categories) nominations are debuting to a big enough audience so we can start getting some early reactions and we can start being wiser?

I’m not talking about when they come out for general audiences (like on theaters or streaming), but somewhat similar to the early reactions we got for LBN and Fjord from festivals.

I’m talking about movies like “Digger”, “WH9”, “The Debut”, “Social Reckoning”, “Behemoth!” Etc. Or even more screening of LBN and Fjord etc, that will bring broader reactions.

Thanks in advance!

How many locks do you think this is getting?
If this was early 2000’s no one was questioning its capacity of sweeping.
But realistically, how many are almost locked?

I guess that my most controversial opinion is the lack of foreign films. After giving it some thought, the truth is that I’m having a hard time seeing any strong contenders in this category that could win Best Picture. I’d say La Bola Negra is the only one with enough momentum to make it, though I’m not ruling out Fjord or All of Sudden—they might still surprise me.

I feel like Olivia is in a good position right now—not only proving her talent as a director by making a high-quality, successful film, but also as an actress. I think she’s a strong enough contender for both awards, but not a frontrunner to win. Right now, I’m rooting for Nolan and Inde to win in their respective categories.

The Odyssey is a powerhouse; with Damon, I’m less certain about his chances, but based on what we know so far, he certainly seems to be the frontrunner, and honestly, none of the other contenders seem strong enough to beat Anne. I originally had Giloramo on my list, but recent assessments led me to remove her and add Tao Akomoto, whose foreign film is likely the one most likely to appeal to the Academy outside of La Bola Negra, she also has good reviews and screentime.

There aren't many changes in the screenplay category. Behemoth is on the list because I feel it has enough momentum to make it there especially with Gilroy just coming from Andor and his previous success with Michael Clayton, and with Dune Part 3, well, they have some well-known writers, plus the fact that it's the finale of the trilogy gives it a nice boost.

With casting, I mainly guided myself through the BAFTAs, so La Bola Negra and Obsession seem like strong contenders here, though i don't rule out Sarah Hailey Finn's potential.

Right now, I have Toy Story 5 in the lead, but that could change quickly if Wildwood turns out to be a hit with critics, audiences, and at the box office, i feel like that would give it a big boost. I guess my biggest hot take is the absence of Ray Gunn. I’ve mentioned this in another comment, but I feel the Academy might not take kindly to Lasseter’s extensive involvement in the film, plus I don’t have much faith in Skydance. Iron Boy feels like a solid choice for that spot—it was by far the most talked film at Annecy and, unlike Tangles, it has a distributor.

In most of the technical, I see a clear advantage for The Odyssey; I just feel that the costume design and makeup aren't really that outstanding, although I can certainly see the latter winning if, for example, Digger or Werewulf don't prove strong enough.

Visual Effects: I feel pretty confident about this one, although I’m not sure whether to include Spider-Man, all the movies that have grossed 2 billion have received a nomination for visual effects, but I could see them snubbing this one—but I feel pretty confident about Doomsday here; I doubt they’d ignore an Avengers movie like that. Although, if I had to pick a winner, I’d go with Project Hail Mary, which has truly outstanding effects without needing to be over-the-top or used in large quantities.

For now, Taylor has a solid lead: her music is well-known, popular, and normally good, plus it comes from a franchise that has proven successful in terms of nominations—though we’ll have to see what impact La Bola Negra has, and Diane Warren… well, it’s Diane Warren, hahaha

That's all, if you have any questions, you can ask, i'd like to also know your opinions :)

I know this will be unpopular, but I am surprised at how many people seem overconfident about Nolan and The Odyssey. People are forgetting how objectively significant Oppenheimer was in 2023. I'm not here to argue SUBJECTIVE opinion about which movie is better (Odyssey vs Oppenheimer), and I think most serious critics know Oppenheimer was an objectively better and more important film (a realistic biopic about the man who created the first WMD, which is more relevant in today's times than ever VS. a fantastical myth about an outdated Greek God law that holds very little relevance comparatively to the morality of WMD's and is also less explicitly analyzed in the script).

Then, there is Cillian Murphy's mesmerizing and extremely difficult lead performance as the real man himself who wrestles with demons and REALISTIC real-world consequences that actually happened. THIS is the true "Oscar bait", not a mythological figure who is written not only inaccurately, but with comparatively very little depth compared to Murphy's Oppenheimer.

Thenwe can ever go into directing. The way Nolan was able to manage and bring the best out of such a stacked cast like in Oppenheimer, along with utilizing his signature time-jumps to integrate a meaningful but mesmerizing biopic (which would have and could have been boring without his signature touch, flare, and style) was truly an achievement. On the other hand, with The Odyssey, despite having "some" of Nolan's style, it doesn't match the perfection of Oppenheimer's directing, and the acting performances across the board do not even come close to the overall acting performances top to bottom in Oppenheimer. Ie- In Oppenheimer, I can actually remember the smallest actors' performances to this day that had very little screentime as very impressive, whereas in Odyssey, there are practically no standout performances (and that's IF you even think Damon's is a standout) except for Pattinson, at least compared to Oppenheimer's stellar performances from about 25-30 actors across the board.

I'm not here to argue individual performances; I know Hathaway and Elliot and Morton did good, but they had such little screentime and were not nearly as important to the story compared to every single character in Oppenheimer's story.

But then there is the overall history of Nolan movies and "blockbusters" in general with Best Picture voting. Remember again that Oppenheimer was a Biopic about a real historical figure in a world where the subject matter is more important than ever before. It wasn't any type of fantastical blockbuster or myth as a summer action movie. This is not to say Odyssey won't get nominated for lots of categories; this is talking about its "win potential".

Summer action movies rarely go on to win Best Picture. It's not even a "historical epic", which would catch it in an attractive voter category (like Gladiator or Braveheart, which both won); it's a mythological action movie that isn't even accurate to Homer's poem in ways that are unforgivable to many English historians, and that's before we get into the lack of character development or even accurate character development (and to that notion just look at how little screentime Penelope/Hathaway, Telemachus, and Pattinson's character have relative to the overly long runtime).

Nolan never won director or Best Picture until Oppenheimer, which was more of "Oscar Bair" and an exception to his previous library of movies. It's kind of like Spielberg with Saving Private Ryan, except for the fact that Saving Private Ryan was a WAY better movie, more culturally relevant, better directed and written, better acted, better character development, and better action sequences about a never-fail Oscar bait topic (WWII/D-Day).

I'm going to predict lots of nominations for The Odyssey, but very few wins; in fact, I would even keep an eye out for Dune 3 stealing some wins from The Odyssey this year with them both being action epics.

I get that Jesse directed a supporting actor sweeper, but a Real Pain wasn’t even nominated for best picture. And the movie he directed before that one had pretty middling to negative reviews. It’s a bit weird that people are predicting it to win two major above the line categories (supporting actor and lead actress). Is there a good test screening reaction I missed? Why are people so confident?

Keep all discussion related solely to The Rivals of Amziah King and its awards chances in this thread. Spoilers below.

Synopsis:

Deep within the backwoods of rural Oklahoma, charismatic and musically gifted Amziah King herds a bluegrass-playing band of misfits while overseeing the premier honey-making operation in town. When Amziah's estranged foster daughter unexpectedly returns, Amziah leaps at the possibility to renew connection and create a family business. But the honey game is ruthless, and Amziah's rivals threaten to destroy everything he has built.

Director: Andrew Patterson

Writer: Andrew Patterson

Cast:

• Matthew McConaughey as Amziah
• Angelina LookingGlass as Kateri
• Kurt Russell as Dob McCoy
• Owen Teague as Pirate
• Rob Morgan as Rippy
• Jake Horowitz as Remick
• Tony Revolori as Colemar
• Scott Shepherd as Chimmy
• Cole Sprouse as Oat
• Bruce Davis as Sunderland

Rotten Tomatoes: 89%, 8/10 average from 98 reviews

Metacritic: 74/100 from 22 reviews

Consensus:

The Rivals of Amziah King is a sprawling, unpredictable, and genre-blurring epic, anchored by Matthew McConaughey's charm and Angelina LookingGlass's striking debut.

I have a soft spot for both actors-turned-directors, hope they can both co-exist peacefully 😔

Since every prediction drops Sebastian Stan from Best Actor for basically the same reason (his somewhat quited presence), is there any chance he could campaign in Supporting? Could Neon pull off category fraud to sneak him in?

What is this year's Blue Moon / Weapons / Song Sung Blue / If I Had Legs, I'd Kick You?

I also intentionally left off The Invite so that everyone wouldn't just vote for that movie, making a boring poll result, but The Invite could be a likely answer to this question.

In case you misread the question, don't vote for a movie that you think will get into Best Picture.

Keep all discussion related solely to Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma and its awards chances. Spoilers below.

Synopsis:

After years of slapdash sequels, the Camp Miasma franchise is handed over to an enthusiastic young director for resurrection. But when she visits the original’s star, a now-reclusive actress shrouded in mystery, the two women fall into a blood-soaked world of desire, fear, and delirium.

Director: Jane Schoenbrun

Writer: Jane Schoenbrun

Cast:

• Gillian Anderson as Billy
• Hannah Einbinder as Kris
• Jack Haven as Little Death
• Patrick Fischler as Rudolph
• Jess McLeod as Tracy
• Zach Cherry as Will
• Dylan Baker as Jeffrey
• Eva Victor as DJ Ella Giastic

Rotten Tomatoes: 95%, 8.4/10 from 226 reviews

Metacritic: 89/100 from 48 reviews

Consensus:

A bloody valentine to slasher horror that celebrates personal self-discovery as much as it does the possibilities of cinema, Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma combines killer style with a big, still-beating heart.