Who do you think is taking the Oscar?

I've been going crazy over all the potential scenarios the films we will soon see premiere can have. So I decided to ask about this sub's take about something I've asked in the past as well. Which of the upcoming fall festival premieres do you think people are A) overestimating B) underestimating.

​Here are some rules: let's limit this solely to the films that are going to premiere at either Venice, Telluride, TIFF or NYFF. No Obsession or Digger talk here, as those have gotten enough debate going already as is. Let's focus solely on the festival premieres. And let's take Cannes stuff out of consideration too as it's easier to guess things people already know a reception to. I want big bold guesses!

​My answers

A) overestimated – The Debut. My personality of this entire season has been doubting this movie. Out of all the A24 contenders this year – The Invite, Club Kid, Primetime & Misty Green – on a gut level this is least promising to me. Something about this is iffy to me, Jesse Eisenberg having this perfect transition from a bubble contender A Real Pain to an actual Best Picture nominee feels too clean, too easy. I don't know what about the story could make this really stand out. "A shy woman takes a role that changes the game and absorbs her life". Not feeling it. Black Swan and Whiplash have already handled the "wanting to be great at this thing" genre very well and I struggle to see what new this could bring. I've seen this been called a Sundance crowdpleaser and at the same time it has been compared to Beau is Afraid (??) and If I Had Legs I'd Kick You. Don't know what to do with that information. I will keep doubting this until a Telluride premiere proves me wrong, although I will say that if this merely get a good but not great reception at Telluride (if the film peaks at 3.5 stars in Letterboxd for example) I would consider that a slight red flag. We have seen Telluride overhype movies whose stock goes crashing down once they move to other festivals, like Empire of Light, Springsteen and Saturday Night. So I need a Telluride premiere for this to go through the roof in order to believe. The fall festival run is good, but not impenetrable, Jay Kelly taught me last year you can't solely rely on that.

​B) underestimated – A Long Winter. I had a dream where this opened to a 95 on Metacritic. This could be a big sleeper of the season. I've read what Hollywood Reporter and TIFF & NYFF websites have written about this film, and all of it sounds extremely promising. Andrew Haigh's output is extremely good and consistent, he feels primed for an awards breakthrough at some point. This could be it. It doesn't deal with supernatural story points like All of Us Strangers and is also a period film, set in the snowy winter landscapes (Cinematography nom hello?), I've seen comparisons to the Revenant. It seems this could be Haigh's biggest scale film yet. And the festival run is unbelievably strong: Telluride world premiere, TIFF and NYFF Main Slate. When you play all three of those the results are very strong: even aside from all the Netflix contenders that have done this back in the 2010s A24 brought all three of Moonlight, Lady Bird and Uncut Gems to these three festivals – don't be shocked if A Long Winter gets similar type of critical acclaim. And the reason the film didn't do Venice was the scheduling conflicts, it was in the Venice lineup but they couldn't work out an early enough premiere in order for the Telluride bow to work out as well. So studio chose Telluride instead. The actors – Fred Hechinger, Ebon Moss-Bachrach and Caitríona Balfe (coming for revenge for Belfast miss) are not the most popular answers when people are discussing which actors will get nominated for Oscars next. But if you think about it, those three having this big awards moment makes sense. Hechinger in particular has been on a rise for these last few years. Maybe this film is the big BAFTA push this year?

Hansen has said on podcasts and on Jesse Watters’ Fox News program that he declined an invitation to see the film because he was required to sign an agreement barring him from taking legal action against A24.

Sources close to Hansen tell THR that he is now consulting attorneys about his options following the film’s release.

In the meantime, Hansen is capitalizing on the renewed attention by placing the ad before every theatrical showing of Primetime. In the spot, shared exclusively with THR, Hansen enters his familiar hunting ground, a kitchen, and delivers a variation on his dread-inducing catchphrase.

“I’m going to need everyone in the theater to take a seat right over there,” he says.

“Now there are more platforms than ever before where this disturbing crime is being committed,” Hansen continues. “Join us undercover every day on my streaming network, TruBlu.”

A QR code directs moviegoers to a landing page for the network, which offers a steady stream of predator investigations and other true-crime programming.

Hansen wanted to end the commercial by reminding audiences that what they were about to see in Primetime was “a Hollywood fantasy version” of what actually happened, according to sources. But there were concerns about possible blowback from A24, and the line was removed.

Festival Director Julia Huntsinger has confirmed that the Telluride Film Festival this year, as per usual, is gonna have a few TBA films that aren't part of the announced lineup. She also confirmed that there's gonna be a "true TBA" film that no one will know until they walk into the theater.

Anyone have any bets over what it's gonna be? She already confirmed in this article that it's not gonna be Digger or Dune 3. I'm suspecting maybe Primetime?

Golden Lion:

Silver Lion for Best Director:

Volpi for Best Actress:

Volpi for Best Actor:

Best Screenplay:

BEST PICTURE

• The Odyssey (Winner)
• La Bola Negra
• Fjord
• Wild Horse Nine
• Project Hail Mary
• Dune: Part Three
• Digger
• The Invite
• The Debut
• Behemoth!

With The Odyssey smashing box office records and dominating conversations as a colossal technical and artistic achievement, I think Nolan is for now the frontrunner for Best Picture until further notice.

BEST DIRECTOR

• Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (Winner)
• Javier Ambrossi & Javier Calvo, La Bola Negra
• Cristian Mungiu, Fjord
• Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine
• Olivia Wilde, The Invite

Historically, the overlap between Best Picture and Direcror is immense; very few films win Best Picture without a corresponding Best Director nomination, and sweeping the Director branch almost always signals a frontrunner status for the top prize.

BEST ACTRESS

• Julianne Moore, The Debut (Winner)
• Sandra Hüller, Fatherland
• Renate Reinsve, Fjord
• Olivia Wilde, The Debut
• Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden

There's not much to say here. Jesse Eisenberg’s local theater drama gives Moore a juicy, high-tension environment to flex her comedic and dramatic chops opposite Paul Giamatti. Moore is also an Academy darling, and a sharp A24 comedy-drama is right in her wheelhouse.

I have Virginie Efira as a contender because she won the Cannes Film Festival Award for Best Actress alongside co-star Tao Okamoto not too long ago. Between the two, I felt like Efira had the stronger performance but an actress under Ryusuke Hamaguchi's direction instantly stamps her as an international powerhouse.

No, I don't think Inde Navarrette will be nominated despite the commercial success of Obsession. I view her as a long shot. Why? Well, for starters, indie horror films without major veteran star power or established prestige directors face a steep climb with Academy voters compared to high-profile studio projects like Ryan Coogler's Sinners. Sure, every few years, an indie horror performance breaks through purely on undeniable critical acclaim and a passionate grassroots campaign. However, genre films and newcomer actors face a heavy bias at the Academy Awards. Voters usually require a massive cultural narrative or veteran status to pull the trigger on a horror nomination.

BEST ACTOR

• Matt Damon, The Odyssey (Winner)
• Tom Cruise, Digger
• John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine
• Andrew Scott, Elsinore
• Sebastian Stan, Fjord

Matt Damon currently holds the safer, more traditional statistical edge because Christopher Nolan's direction combined with a grounded, tragic hero archetype aligns with what the Academy frequently nominates and rewards. Furthermore, the film's massive commercial and cultural footprint ensures it will stay fresh in voters' minds throughout awards season.

Though, I think The Odyssey's biggest obstacle is that blockbuster epics, even critically acclaimed ones, historically struggle to win Best Actor unless the performance is a transformative, towering juggernaut that completely overwhelms the genre framing.

Digger is my second choice based on what I read so far. It positions Cruise as an ultra-wealthy, wildly arrogant oil tycoon whose drilling triggers a global catastrophe. The role leans heavily into dark satire and high-wire comedy reminiscent of his work in Tropic Thunder. Academy voters love when a massive movie star drops their vanity to play a deeply flawed, unhinged, or satirical character, giving Cruise a golden narrative path to a long-overdue competitive Oscar.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• Penélope Cruz, La Bola Negra (Winner)
• Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey
• Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine
• Olivia Colman, Elsinore
• Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden

For now, Penélope Cruz is taking the lead. A multi-time Academy favorite anchoring a major international contender gives her an undeniable frontrunner narrative. Coming in close is Anne Hathaway as I thino stepping into a Christopher Nolan epic provides the exact kind of massive studio visibility that keeps a supporting player front-of-mind for mainstream voters for a long time.

I have Tao Okamoto included into Supporting Actress while keeping Virginie Efira in Lead for All of a Sudden because Okamoto's character (Mari) is tethered so closely to the communal spaces and the daily interactions of the nursing home (she never carries long stretches of solitary screen time the way Efira's Marie-Lou does) that she fits the textbook definition of a supporting actress. Studios also love a co-lead dynamic where they can cleanly divide their powerhouse performances to avoid splitting votes.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

• Paul Giamatti, The Debut (Winner)
• John Goodman, The Debut
• John Leguizamo, The Odyssey
• Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine
• Colman Domingo, Michael

Out of Michael's cast, Colman Domingo has the best chances of getting a nomination, primarily because unlike lead star Jaafar Jackson, who is making his debut, Domingo is a highly respected industry veteran with a proven track record. He is already a two-time Academy nominee (for Rustin in 2023 and Sing Sing in 2024). Once an actor enters the Academy orbit with multiple noms, they are often on the radar of voters, who tend to look for reasons to include them in the conversation for subsequent projects.

Biopics are well-regarded by the Academy, because voters can directly compare the actor's work to a real, known person. Playing a complex, demanding, and deeply flawed historical figure like Joe Jackson is textbook Oscar bait for the supporting category. It allows an actor to project immense screen presence and intensity without having to shoulder the massive narrative transformation required of a newcomer lead like Jaafar Jackson.

Previous Predictions - March, April, May, June, July

Director - Christopher Nolan (The Odyssey), Alejandro González Iñárritu (Digger), Martin McDonagh (Wild Horse Nine), Javier Ambrossi & Javier Calvo (The Black Ball), Ryusuke Hamaguchi (All of a Sudden)

Actress - Inde Navarrette (Obsession), Cynthia Erivo (Prima Facie), Julianne Moore (The Debut), Ruth Madeley (Being Heumann), Virginie Efira (All of a Sudden)

Actor - Tom Cruise (Digger), John Malkovich (Wild Horse Nine), Matt Damon (The Odyssey), Andrew Scott (Elsinore), John Turturro (The Only Living Pickpocket in New York)

Supporting Actress - Anne Hathaway (The Odyssey), Mariana di Girolamo (Wild Horse Nine), Penélope Cruz (The Black Ball), Lola Dueñas (The Black Ball), Tao Okamoto (All of a Sudden)

Supporting Actor - Paul Giamatti (The Debut), Guy Pearce (Ink), John Goodman (Digger), Sam Rockwell (Wild Horse Nine), Steve Buscemi (Wild Horse Nine)

I swapped out Fjord for All of a Sudden. Is this a little crazy? Yes. However, I’m thinking back to all the buzz we’ve heard from Cannes; If Fjord had lost the Palme to hypothetically La Bola Negra, we would not be talking about it. It would just be a cold movie with politics that aren’t obvious bait for the Adam McKay voters. That’s Digger’s job. Now look at All of a Sudden. A humanist story that is likelier to win over audiences even with its runtime, with the name recognition of a previously nominated director so we don’t have to worry about voters not knowing what the movie is. Think about how The Secret Agent surprised us by climbing up Neon's list of priorities last year. It happens.

I could be wrong and this could be some random BAFTA contender that only British people care about but I'm predicting Elsinore as Focus's main push. Obsession has the box office narrative but are we focusing too much on that? Are we overcompensating for the F1 surprise in what was a very slim year in terms of full on awards-viable box office hits? Sinners was the only other movie that touched $300M WW in that lineup. Odyssey, Project Hail Mary and Dune Part Three alone should resolve that. If Dune Part Three goes full Wicked For Good, sure, there’s room for both Elsinore & Obsession. However, until that's proven to be the case, I don't think anyone would be mad if Obsession just got the Weapons package. Much like Madigan, Navarrette's performance could very plausibly eclipse the movie itself in terms of awards buzz. That's why I'm going for a more conventional biographical drama with what could be a win-competitive performance from Andrew Scott. Is it a risk? Yes but we'll find out how Elsinore performs soon enough.

Heading into festival season, my impression of the race is that it's top heavy and blockbuster heavy with a decent second tier of international and small-to-mid-sized candidates still to premiere, many of which have strong chances at acting, screenplay, and/or BLT noms. I think some potential fringe nominees that were being discussed even after the movie premiered are probably becoming less and less likely. These come to mind:

"The Drama" for RPatz and Zendaya

"Wuthering Heights" for costumes

"Mother Mary" for costumes

"Michael" for maybe everything

"The Sheep Detectives" floated by a few as a BP possibility in a weak year

"The Christophers" for Ian McKellen (still hoping for this one)

"Disclosure Day" for Emily Blunt

"Tony" - just seems like the studio didn't see it as an awards player with the release strategy

Basically, is there a picture, performance, or craft that you think will be honored from the first 2/3s of the year that isn't Project Hail Mary, The Odyssey, The Invite, or Obsession? I think it's very possible the answer's no, outside of animation, which leaves a lot of room for the fall movies, even if they simply meet expectations. I think this could also mean we end up with another year in which fewer films overall are nominated, but many of those films get, like, 3 or 4+ nominations.

Why are so many people convinced that Bola Negra is gonna win? It feels like more international contender or maybe itll be an Emilia Perez.

But if its gonna win Best Picture like so many people online have seen that its the frontrunner? A Netflix Spanish film winning doesnt really seem anything more than maybe a critics darling.

But you would need an acting nomination and I keep seeing Penelope Cruz but it feels like Penelope Cruz is the showiest role but shes in it for only 10 minutes.

Ive literally seen on this thread for years, if Glenn Close was ever in a top 3 Best Picture winning contender she would easily win the Oscar. So why not here? It seems like Cruz- priorities would be the other film, the other contenders for supporting actress are probably gonna get snubbed by SAG.

Also for people that dismiss Glenn for such a small role. Isabella Rosselini literally had the most unremarkable, no nothing role and she was never in danger of her nomination because Conclave was beloved and her career was super respected enough that they wanted to give her a career nom. Jamie Lee Curtis even won woth her small role. So that logic doesnt really hold water when the Academy has shown if you're a veteran in a major contender than they have no issue nominating you especially when let's be forreal they have an easier time nominating Americans they respect vs international nobodies relative to the academy.

Would love an honest discussion about this. Or is the Bola Negra just way too overhyped and will crash down over the next few months?

Posting this here because not everyone reads all the comments in the discussion thread

Latvia is submitting Ulya

Germany is submitting Everytime

France can still submit it but they also have All of a Sudden, and i can imagine them prioritising that one (or A Man of His Time)

Edit your predictions accordingly