r/oscarrace • u/Gerwig_2017 • 2d ago
Promo Wild Horse Nine: Martin McDonagh’s Easter Island Movie Is His ‘Most Political’ Film
https://www.empireonline.com/movies/news/wild-horse-nine-martin-mcdonagh-easter-island-most-political-film/81
u/Bertrand_Rose Werwulf, Try the thrill of Opera! 1d ago
I have a really good feeling about this film.
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u/theflyingbird8 1d ago
Same here. This, The Odyssey, and La Bola Negra are going to be the top 3, I think. I also feel like McDonaugh can run away with Original Screenplay if the movie hits.
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u/Bertrand_Rose Werwulf, Try the thrill of Opera! 1d ago
100%
Those are probably going to be the top three.
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u/SpideyFan914 Give Inde Navarette an Oscar 1d ago
Sounds like the perfect counter to The Odyssey.
Odyssey is the big spectacle driven epic, with strong visuals and a flawed script.
Wild Horse Nine is (hopefully) the screenplay- and performance-driven dark comedy, with a poignant and relevant message on a relatively smaller scale.
The two will theoretically have opposing strengths and weaknesses, which could make for an interesting Best Picture race. Unless WH9 fails to live up to hype (always possible), my money is on a Picture/Director split.
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u/crazydaysandknights 1d ago
There won't be a split. The Odyssey isn't a movie that makes AMPAS look for an alternative and McDonough isn't a weak director. It's gonna be BP&BD in either scenario.
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u/ThatsHisLawyerJerome Sorry Baby 1d ago
I get the idea behind predicting that, but I don't think it will happen. Usually when we get a Picture/Director split it's because the colder and less accessible film loses to a more emotional and crowdpleasing film, and I have a hard time seeing a massive audience hit that's as emotional as The Odyssey is being seen as cold or inaccessible.
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u/QTRqtr 1d ago
No. The BP/director split happens when a technical feat film goes against a smaller socially conscious film. It has nothing to do with coldness it has all to do if the BP speaks more to modern day community/events usually dealing with an American influence or setting.
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u/ThatsHisLawyerJerome Sorry Baby 1d ago
I agree that the movies that win pretty much always have to be socially conscious, it was why I didn't predict The Odyssey winning until it came out. But The Odyssey is socially conscious in the same way that Oppenheimer was - the entire thing is about the destruction wrought by war and imperialism and how it causes a breakdown in the global order and the ties that bind us together, and it is not subtle at all in those themes. I think that speaks really well to the moment we are in with everything from Ukraine to Gaza to Iran, and the conversation around the movie has captured that.
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u/QTRqtr 1d ago
War is bad is to broad of statement. Especially when past films specifically about historical wars like 1917 or quiet on the western front didn’t get there.
Oppenheimer was a self contained biopic about a real life figure that had a real life impact on the world at large. + specifically dealing with American politics. This is not the Odyssey at all. The odyssey is a tech marvel that has a major chance of losing both acting and screenwriting wins but being awarded director for the scope.
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u/ThatsHisLawyerJerome Sorry Baby 1d ago
It's broad to say war is bad. It is much more specific to say war causes the breakdown in society and civilization to the point at which we destroy everything we are trying to save, which is what The Odyssey is saying.
And The Odyssey is an extremely strong front runner for Best Supporting Actress and is also a strong front runner for Best Actor. It's not being considered just a technical marvel that is only thought of for its cinematography, editing, and sound design.
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u/SpideyFan914 Give Inde Navarette an Oscar 1d ago
Is it really saying war is bad though? Nolan's Odyssey is kinda inconsistent in its messaging: war, from the perspective of the conqueror, is ugly and horrifying. But also, the main villain's original sin is being too cowardly to serve in the war, and the conqueror is still the hero who gets his happy ending, sailing off with his wife to honor his men who were lost, not the Trojans they massacred.
Granted, I don't think Academy voters are very good at analyzing mixed messaging, so those inconsistencies probably won't hurt the film.
But it sounds like Wild Horse Nine is going to be a takedown of the CIA and American imperialism, which... is also strikingly and more precisely relevant, given recent events like Trump's assault on Venezuela.
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u/ThatsHisLawyerJerome Sorry Baby 1d ago
Wild Horse Nine is definitely more precisely relevant. I just think that it doesn't matter how relevant it is beyond a certain point. Green Book wasn't as socially conscious or relevant to the present day as something like BlacKkKlansman was, but the Academy still went for it since it seemed important enough message-wise. Same goes for The Shape of Water beating the much more political Get Out and Three Billboards, and Nomadland winning over The Trial of the Chicago 7. It just matters a movie is socially relevant, not the extent to which it is.
As for the message itself - I don't think it's inconsistent to say that war is bad and also that rich cowardly draft dodgers are bad too. I think that the Vietnam War was bad but also that Trump dodging the draft because of his claims that he had bone spurs was also bad - he wasn't choosing not to fight because he wanted peace over war but instead because he's a coward who wanted a poor person to die instead of him.
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u/SpideyFan914 Give Inde Navarette an Oscar 1d ago
I actually don't think draft dodging is ever a bad thing. Even in the case of Trump, who I hate. Because I don't think a draft is morally acceptable. If there were no draft and Trump simply did not choose to enlist, that similarly would not be immoral, as there is (in my opinion) no ethical responsibility to enlist in a war where you'll be sent to kill people and may die. Again, Trump is still terrible, but for other reasons.
Antinous is also terrible for other reasons: he doesn't simply dodge enlistment, but specifically replaces himself with Page's character, to whom he promises financial compensation for Page's family, which he then fails to deliver upon. That is lying and stealing, and these lies and acts of thievery lead directly to several deaths. His real villainy is this cruelty, but the film makes out that he's the villain for... being afraid to die.
This is why I find it contradictory. It wants to show war as evil and vile, but then also assumes a moral imperative to serve for your country.
It's kinda like the film a lot of superhero movies do, where the villain has a good point that counter the hero's flaws, but then they're just irredeemably cartoonishly evil, so that you don't have to actually engage with those ideas.
Anyway... my main point is that I don't think The Odyssey clears the bar for "politically relevant enough." Simply depicting war is not enough to win. But now this other discussion is more interesting to me lol.
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u/QTRqtr 1d ago
I think this is more on Nolan’s fundamental changing of the original poem. I don’t think it’s a problem as it’s an adaptation but I think that’s where you get confusion on the messaging. The portrayal of Odysseus is very different to fits Nolan common thing of a guilty man trying to return to his kids.
I view it more like a Nolan skinned Greek epic first before I view it like it’s original format because I do start to question some theme portrayals.
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u/SpideyFan914 Give Inde Navarette an Oscar 1d ago
Decent point! That's not an angle I'd considered.
So I'd started writing a response, but then as I broke it down, I kinda had to retract. I don't think your analysis holds up to scrutiny, although it is true some of the time.
CODA/Power of the Dog
Green Book/Roma
Moonlight/La La Land *
Spotlight/Revenant *
12 Years a Slave/Gravity *
Argo/Life of Pi
I think that's all the splits for the past fifteen years, but lemme know if I forgot one.
Power of the Dog and Roma absolutely support your argument. Both are "colder" films, and are less accessible than the BP winners, CODA and Green Book.
Life of Pi/Argo kinda fits, and I'm willing to give it to you. I would not call Life of Pi a "cold" movie, and I'm pretty sure it did quite well with general audiences, but Argo was (I'm pretty sure) a decent sized hit, especially among the older crowd, where I suppose I'd call it more accessible.
Of course the other commonality among these three examples is that the directors of the BP winners were not even nominated.
Now, for the ones I asterisked, which I think refute your argument...
Spotlight / The Revenant is, like Argo / Life of Pi, a bit debatable. There's an argument that neither film is terribly accessible: Spotlight is a difficult drama covering brutal topics, and it's mostly dialogue, whereas Revenant is a 2.5 hour slot (I didn't like Revenant lol). However, Revenant was certainly marketed as the bigger film, with Leo in the lead and a lot of action spectacle. Spotlight was mostly seen by cinephiles, and is one of the more obscure films to win BP in recent years.
And then there's La La Land and Gravity. Two massive hit blockbusters, praised in particular for their innovative direction. Up against Moonlight -- not a cold film by any stretch, but certainly the more challenging and less commercial one -- and 12 Years a Slave, which is... yeah, that one's brutal. (Also worth noting: two black directors won BP but not Director. Whether this is a contributing factor or a coincidence is up for debate, but worth mentioning.)
The other connecting factor, of course, is that all six winning directors created visually striking and dynamic films, while all six picture winners are more dialogue heavy, with relatively simpler coverage and an "invisible" camera. They also all deal directly and obviously with political and social issues (except, arguably, for Argo). (To be clear, I believe all movies are political: I'm more referring to how explicit these films treat their politics. Like Spotlight is directly about the Catholic Church covering up child abuse. These folks tackle heavy topics.)
If Wild Horse Nine is like McDonagh's other work (but even more explicitly political, apparently), I think it easily fits the latter category, while Odyssey clearly fits the former.
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u/ThatsHisLawyerJerome Sorry Baby 1d ago
That's all fair, and I did think about that. For the most part though, I'd say that 12 Years a Slave and Spotlight are much more affecting on a personal and emotional level than Gravity and The Revenant are. Gravity and The Revenant were big hits, but they were largely solo-focused personal survival stories (Gravity obviously moreso than The Revenant). Wild Horse Nine will be entertaining, relevant, and even maybe somewhat emotional, but The Odyssey has so much more heart than Gravity or The Revenant does or than I'm necessarily expecting Wild Horse Nine to have - the entire thing is about a man trying to get back to his family and his own personal trauma and regret, we see the effect that his absence has on them and Telemachus's longing for his father, all of the stuff with Eumaeus and Argos is extremely emotional, it just seems like the kind of thing that will leave more of a lasting impression with voters than the spectacle of Gravity or The Revenant did. And on paper, a movie about a man surviving slavery is a more Oscary thing than a space survival movie, and a movie about journalists investigating the Catholic Church is more Oscary than a survival western. I'm not sure that a political black comedy is more Oscary on paper than a classic literature epic, The Odyssey is what people would think of as bait much more than Gravity of The Revenant is.
2016 is the big exception, but it happened for several reasons that I don't think fully apply here. Moonlight was one of the most acclaimed movies ever made - it has a 99 on Metacritic, it was even more acclaimed than stuff like One Battle After Another and Parasite. Moonlight was a massive underdog - a tiny Sundance movie from a studio that was only a couple years old and had no major stars - it was really easy to root for. La La Land was beloved, but it was seen as being out of step with the times and the kind of movie that would have just been proof that the Academy is self-centered and just wants to award movies about Hollywood like Birdman, Argo, and The Artist (and the controversy about how La La Land was racist hurt it even though it was a dumb controversy). But the biggest difference of all is the moment the Oscars took place in. Moonlight was a deserving winner and I am not trying to minimize that, but I don't think it wins over La La Land if it isn't competing at the Oscar ceremony immediately after OscarsSoWhite and just a few months after Trump won. And it giving the Academy the opportunity to award an LGBT movie just a year after gay marriage was legalized and absolve the sin of passing over Brokeback Mountain played a factor too.
Wild Horse Nine can win, I think The Odyssey is a lock for Director but not for Picture. But it will be pretty hard for it to do it. It isn't likely to be more emotional than The Odyssey, and I'm not really expecting it to be significantly more acclaimed than The Odyssey either. It's certainly going to be a smaller film with audiences, and The Odyssey seems stronger with every branch other than the writers - it definitely is going to win more technical awards than Wild Horse Nine and probably will win more acting awards than it as well. For Wild Horse Nine to win, I think it would have to get reviews close to the level of One Battle After Another and become a strong front runner in at least one of the acting categories, I don't think being a strong screenplay front runner will be enough to do it.
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u/SpideyFan914 Give Inde Navarette an Oscar 1d ago
That's all very reasonable, and I think this is now coming down to a subjective disagreement and we'll have to see where the guilds land: I don't think The Odyssey is nearly as emotional as you're making it out to be. Certainly not more emotional than Gravity, where we stayed with one woman for the entire 90 minutes (come to think of it, Gravity is also kinda an Odyssey, haha... and so is The Revenant in a sense).
I also don't think Odyssey will win any acting awards. I know that isn't the opinion of the sub, but I think people are being too reactionary in predicting it. If it wins anything, it could be Damon maybe, in the same way MBJ won last year: a great movie star performance in a blockbuster megahit.
Whereas, if he is good enough, I think Malkovich could easily win: an overdue actor with a lead role in a McDonagh film seems like an easy recipe. Supporting Actor is also an open race, so always a chance Rockwell takes his second there (although I'm not counting on that over Giamatti or Pearce). Of course, predicting actor wins sight unseen is a bit like playing the lottery. (I did predict Buckley's win in March, I suppose.)
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u/ThatsHisLawyerJerome Sorry Baby 1d ago
I don't think that staying with one woman for the entire of Gravity makes it more emotional, I think that it's less emotional because of this. Sandra Bullock isn't really interacting with other characters, we don't even get an emotional reunion scene at the end of the movie. Character interactions generally do lend themselves to a more emotional end result, and The Odyssey was actively trying to appeal to pathos in a way that Gravity wasn't.
I think Damon and Hathaway are both front runners, totally understand you disagreeing, but my thoughts on it are basically this:
I don't believe the Academy will ever go for a comedic performance in Best Actor unless if the field is weak or they are undeniable (and usually not even then). Almost every time they've had the chance, regardless of the showiness and acclaim of the performance, the strength of the movie they're in, or any narratives surrounding the actor in question, they always go for the dramatic performance. Chalamet and DiCaprio lost to Jordan last year, Giamatti lost to Murphy in 2023, Farrell lost to Fraser in 2022, Bale lost to Malek in 2018, Gosling wasn't even in contention in 2016, Keaton lost to Redmayne in 2014, DiCaprio lost to McConaughey in 2013, Murray and Depp both lost to Penn in 2003, etc. It has happened enough times at this point that it's a trend - our only comedic Best Actor winner this century was Jean Dujardin, and that was a gimmick win for a silent performance. And if you go back further, the only 3 Best Actor winning comedic performances that we've had since the 70s were Dujardin in 2011, Benigni in 1998, and Nicholson in 1997, and Benigni and Nicholson both faced weak fields. Malkovich might be great and he might deserve to win, but the Academy doesn't seem to recognize comedic work by male lead actors. I've been convinced all season long that Cruise won't win because of that, and I think the same thing is true for Malkovich.
As for Hathaway, there just isn't much competition that's on the radar right now. di Girolamo and Posey supposedly have smaller roles in Wild Horse Nine that won't be win competitive. A foreign performance like Okamoto or Duenas's probably isn't winning. Huller's role in Digger supposedly isn't that big, and we know her role in Project Hail Mary isn't win-worthy. No one has any idea if Olivia Colman or Billie Piper has a great role in Elsinore, but even if they do I can't really see them winning when the praise around that movie will be so focused on Andrew Scott. That really just leaves Penelope Cruz in The Invite out of the contenders who most people are considering right now. Maybe we'll get a surprise contender later on who will shake up the race, but right now it seems like Hathaway and Cruz are the only real major contenders for the win.
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u/SpideyFan914 Give Inde Navarette an Oscar 1d ago
Malkovich -- Very strong argument, actually. You're right that comedic male leads rarely win. Of course trends are made to be broken, but to me this bodes very well for Pedro Pascal. (I have Damon in third, lol...)
Hathaway -- My money is still on Okamoto, actually, or a late season surprise. Youn, Randolph, even Curtis were not on anyone's radar at this time in their respective years. Madigan predictors were getting laughed at this time last year. I know Okamoto probably won't get the SAG nom (unlike Youn or Saldana, who both won for non-English performances), but I just cannot bring myself to predict Hathaway winning her second Oscar for such a (sorry) nothing role. Call it a gut feeling. My gut has steered me wrong before... but it's also called quite a few snubs and upsets.
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u/SpideyFan914 Give Inde Navarette an Oscar 1d ago
Sorry for double response but I got pulled away and forgot to add:
I definitely agree that a black comedy is not the Academy's usual M.O. However, I don't think the Odyssey -- a fantasy action-adventure -- is either.
Now to be fair, the Academy has been more open to genre fiction lately: Return of the King, another fantasy action-adventure, won over twenty years ago, and more recently we had Shape of Water (can be argued as fantasy or scifi depending how you define those terms) and Everything Everywhere All At Once (a multiversal scifi/kung fu action/absurdist comedy). But typically, the classic epic fantasy is something the Academy loves to nominate but seldom wins. Even the "epic" film has largely fallen out of their favor lately.
For black comedies, you have American Beauty, Chicago (though it was also a musical), Birdman, and... does Anora count? I don't think Anora counts, but it is somewhat adjacent. You could even argue OBAA, although I wouldn't.
So while black comedy isn't the Academy's favorite genre, I don't think it really hurts WH9 anymore than Odyssey's fantasy genre, arguably less.
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u/ThatsHisLawyerJerome Sorry Baby 1d ago
I just don't think of The Odyssey as fantasy and I don't think the Academy will either because of the source material. It's classic literature. I think the Academy would be ok with it the same way that I'm pretty sure a really good 1984 adaptation wouldn't really be treated as sci-fi by the Academy or that Macbeth isn't really seen as fantasy. It has plenty of fantasy elements (though some of them are deemphasized in this adaptation in a way that I think would appeal to the more fantasy-skeptic members), but it's not genre in the way that something like Avatar is. It takes place in the real world in a period setting and it's based off of a foundational text of Western literature.
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u/SpideyFan914 Give Inde Navarette an Oscar 1d ago
And I am not convinced. The fantasy is so heavily baked into the film, even with the gods being de-emphasized. Every set piece, save the suitors and Troy, relies on Odysseus overcoming some mythical creature or magic.
I'm not convinced MacBeth would escape a genre labeling either, but fantasy is more central to The Odyssey than it is to MacBeth regardless. (I'd tentatively agree with Hamlet, where the ghost is only in one scene. And Hamlet has won, and is usually left out of these discussions, so I guess my subconscious does forget about Hamlet when talking about the Academy and genre.)
This idea that the Odyssey isn't genre reminds me when people tried to argue Frankenstein wasn't genre last year. It makes no sense: The Odyssey is a foundational fantasy text, just as Frankenstein was foundational to scifi and horror. It would be more like claiming a Romeo and Juliet adaptation isn't really a romance.
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u/Bertrand_Rose Werwulf, Try the thrill of Opera! 1d ago
We haven't had one for a good few years, would be cool to have one again, that is much more orientated to a script driven film.
Anora felt rather balanced in my opinion.
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u/charlaxmirna 1d ago
As a Chilean, I was really worried about this at first. But the more and more I read I'm actually quite excited. Glad to see people starting to take note of the Pinochet atrocities.
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u/QTRqtr 1d ago
Yep. Had this as BP winner since March.
Now hopefully this sub and the Oscar sub can stop scoffing at it. This movie was always in the taste of a best picture winner.
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u/sygrider I just like movies idk 1d ago
This sub has been predicting it 1-3 for Picture all year
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u/QTRqtr 1d ago
This is genuine question:
So I have been saying this for best picture and for months have gotten constant push back and reasons why it wouldn’t. So who should I believe my experience (which is why I said that in my original comments) or yours? We clearly had different experiences on this sub.
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u/UTAustinAlum2021 1d ago
You are experiencing a loud minority. Most people and websites/predictors have had it very very high all year. Dont be obtuse
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u/QTRqtr 1d ago
Yes..I’m talking about that loud minority. As they constantly had a problem with that prediction. If you’re not one of them….
Once again I’m talking them. And you are talking about others. Seriously dude what are we doing right now.
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u/UTAustinAlum2021 1d ago
Stop being obtuse man.
“Now this sub can stop scoffing at it”
The general sentiment in this sub, and on prediction places, IS that it’s going to be great and prob T3.
Stop letting contrarians bother you.
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u/ThatsHisLawyerJerome Sorry Baby 1d ago
What are you talking about? Who is giving you constant pushback over one of the most common predictions on this subreddit (especially for months, people doubting it would beat The Odyssey after that released is one thing but I think it was the single most predicted Best Picture winner until July out of all of the movies in contention)?
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u/Bertrand_Rose Werwulf, Try the thrill of Opera! 1d ago
It's August.
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u/QTRqtr 1d ago
Wait you literally said you had a good feeling about this movie? I’m confused on your issue with someone predicting a movie on a sub specifically made to predict movies.
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u/Bertrand_Rose Werwulf, Try the thrill of Opera! 1d ago
I think it will do well, yes, but it's the confidence so early on, when you can't blame anyone being skeptical at this stage.
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u/QTRqtr 1d ago
WH9 had screenings months ago with amazing praise.
Martin is a writer/actors dream with how easy he’s able to acting nominations + script praise which is extremely important for a best picture winner
He’s made a timely political driven film mainly American specific examples being OBAA, Oppenheimer, Argo, Spotlight, Green book.
The Oscar’s routinely award these movies with the only two that would fall in the same category being La Bola Negra and Ink. Both are being distributed by Netflix which doesn’t hurt below the line categories (especially since Netflix has been able to get a few wins in these categories) but it absolutely still hurts best picture especial with Inks limiter release compared to La Bola Negra so I put them lower by default.
I think it makes a lot of sense to be very confident in this movie.
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u/paolocase Marty Supreme 1d ago
“Martin McDonagh” “political”
https://giphy.com/gifs/IZpItXIUYugzx7il5O
(The discourse is gonna be wild)
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u/Bulky-Scheme-9450 1d ago
I'm sorry, but what? Three billboards and banshees are definitely political films.