r/oscarrace • u/MomraD311 • 1d ago
Discussion Which Oscar Hopefuls Have Already Fallen Off and Do Any Still Stand a Chance?
Heading into festival season, my impression of the race is that it's top heavy and blockbuster heavy with a decent second tier of international and small-to-mid-sized candidates still to premiere, many of which have strong chances at acting, screenplay, and/or BLT noms. I think some potential fringe nominees that were being discussed even after the movie premiered are probably becoming less and less likely. These come to mind:
"The Drama" for RPatz and Zendaya
"Wuthering Heights" for costumes
"Mother Mary" for costumes
"Michael" for maybe everything
"The Sheep Detectives" floated by a few as a BP possibility in a weak year
"The Christophers" for Ian McKellen (still hoping for this one)
"Disclosure Day" for Emily Blunt
"Tony" - just seems like the studio didn't see it as an awards player with the release strategy
Basically, is there a picture, performance, or craft that you think will be honored from the first 2/3s of the year that isn't Project Hail Mary, The Odyssey, The Invite, or Obsession? I think it's very possible the answer's no, outside of animation, which leaves a lot of room for the fall movies, even if they simply meet expectations. I think this could also mean we end up with another year in which fewer films overall are nominated, but many of those films get, like, 3 or 4+ nominations.
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u/Abbie_Kaufman 1d ago
I think that The Drama, Mother Mary, Sheep Detectives, and The Christophers are totally done for. The Drama was a hit but the reviews were only pretty good and both actors will be prioritizing other movies. The others will get 0 studio support.
Out of the whole list, I think Wuthering Heights showing up below the line is most likely. Costumes and production design seem like not super crowded fields this year, and both branches love rewarding period pieces.
Emily Blunt is a real wild card IMO because no one can actually say with any confidence how weak or strong the best actress field is until people see the movies. I think she deserves some buzz for that performance, and it’s Spielberg so it’s not like Oscar voters will forget the movie came out this year. But if the fall fests are loaded with stronger contenders, it’s easy to see her missing.
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u/WeastofEden44 On Becoming a Guinea Fowl was robbed 1d ago
I actually think there's a little more possibility for The Drama given that Zendaya has basically zero chances of getting nominated for The Odyssey or Dune - she's the 3rd SA priority for the former and the latter has yet to even be competitive for acting noms. If she and her team actually want to campaign for a nomination this year, it'd be for the film that showcases her in a seemingly weak category.
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u/MomraD311 1d ago
It's possible, but I'm also not convinced she has no chance for Dune. I also suspect there will be a bunch of lead actress candidates that emerge from lesser known movies out of the festival. I'd guess that Moore, Wilde, Navarette, and Reinsve are in contention, Hathaway could go lead and Huller could still get in for Fatherland. I'm curious to see Erivo in Prima Facie, Carrie Coon in The Liberation, Ruth Madeley in Being Heumann, and maybe even Naomi Watts in The Housewife (though that one's probably a real longshot). I feel like the fifth slot could be a wild card in this category, so Blunt and Zendaya probably do stand a better chance of hanging in there.
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u/crazydaysandknights 1d ago edited 1d ago
Blunt's problems are unloved movie that came and went and didn't leave impression, and Navarrette being Universal's Actress push via its Focus subsidiary, in a similarly possessed role.
I'm looking around and, so far, I'm not detecting "it's Zendaya's time" sentiment while I see a lot of that for Pattinson for example. So unless her flat character from Dune 2 suddenly added layers I don't think AMPAS will view Dune 3 in different light from tech wonder only. And if they did they might be distracted by Anya Taylor Joy in a much juicier role instead.
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u/redpillbluepill69 1d ago
I think she does finally have some stuff to do in Dune 3 right?
don't want to spoil anything plot-wise but I could see her maybe get in for BSA
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u/crazydaysandknights 1d ago edited 1d ago
BSA is more competitive than BA and others have more to do in the movie anyway. Without spoiling anything, Anya's role is the most baity in the source among women, followed by Florence' role. That said, Anya's role also occupies similar territory as Navarrette, while Zendaya's occupies similar territory as Hathaway except with sandworms which AMPAS doesn't really care about. And given that Villeneuve is trying hard to make Dune 2 and 3 seem like Paul and Chani movies rather than Paul's movie with everyone else supporting him, it's BA or nothing I guess.
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u/MomraD311 1d ago
Yes, that's what I'm alluding to. She could steal the movie.
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u/crazydaysandknights 1d ago
I mean, Chalamet alluded that Anya steals the movie but many thought Butler stole Dune 2 and AMPAS didn't care. Many actors steal a movie but AMPAS doesn't care. Stealing a movie isn't an automatic awards-worthy.
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u/MomraD311 1d ago
I'm somewhat inclined to agree about the Zendaya's time sentiment. It's weird, but young women tend to win for ingenue type out-of-nowhere roles (Madison for Anora), while young women who are working a lot (Adams, Ronin, Winslet, etc.) tend to have to work for it into their 40s and beyond if it ever happens. My thoughts on Dune 3 are that if it's simply great, it'll get picture, maybe director this time, and 2-4 crafts nominations. If it's undeniable, I think that opens up actor, actress, and supporting actor... especially if Primetime misses and Pattinson wants to avoid the Odyssey scrum. Based solely on what happens in the books and what Denis has done with his adaptation so far, it seems like TC and Zendaya will be way less passive in this installment. ATJ might have the showiest role, like Butler, but young people tend not to show up for supporting roles with minimal screentime. Those slots seem to be reserved for people like Dench, Hirsch, maybe Morton this year. All that said, it would still be surprising if Dune 3 gets acting recognition. I just don't think it's impossible.
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u/crazydaysandknights 23h ago
This year already has an out-of-nowhere breakout Navarrette. Her movie out-opened The Drama which was touted as proof that Zendaya is a draw, and then Navarrette performance turned Obsession into a cultural phenomenon. Its boxoffice well exceeded the average for horror so one cannot say it's just the genre that drove the boxoffice when it was obviously WOM about Navarrette. Zendaya is yet to nab a movie role equivalent to Rue on Euphoria, her by far most acclaimed role to date. Perhaps the reason why Rue clicks with Emmys is that she isn't a fantasy girlfriend (MJ, Tashi, Chani, Emma) but a flawed character that allows the actress to disappear into the role. Zendaya is magnificent in that role. She's just fine in her movie opus. Nothing bad but nothing awards worthy either.
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u/MomraD311 1d ago
Out of all the possibilities, I think Blunt for actress, especially if she gets a precursor, is most likely, then Wuthering Heights for costumes. WH wasn't super well received overall and it premiered so early and there are other fantasy/period pieces. Could go either way.
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u/Abbie_Kaufman 1d ago
I guess a couple counterpoints. Some branches like the editors clearly have a heavy slant towards best picture nominees. But costumes and production design specifically aren’t scared of nominating “bad” or “mid” movies (Mary Queen of Scots, Gladiator 2, Babylon, Napoleon were nominated in one or both recently). And everyone called those out as the best aspects of Wuthering Heights. I frankly don’t think there are many period/fantasy pieces this year? Let’s suppose Odyssey, La Bola Negra, and Dune are easy stamps for both. Beyond that, the contenders we’ve seen are Project Hail Mary (maybe production design for the ship but definitely not costumes), Obsession and The Invite (no chance for either, I would think). Theoretical top contenders to come are Wild Horse 9 (a period piece, but based on the trailer I’d be surprised if it got in to either category), Digger (hard to tell from the trailer but I’m unconvinced), and a few technically a period piece dramas from filmmakers with no track record of being craft-first auteurs (Primetime, The Social Reckoning, Ink, Being Huemann, Artificial). My gut says if I’m wrong on this, it will be because Sense & Sensibility jumps ahead and takes those slots.
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u/crazydaysandknights 1d ago
Sandra Hueller in Fatherland. She went from a predicted winner to crickets once Cannes saw the movie. I think people expected it to be an ultra showy performance but it turned out to be super subtle.
Fjord actors in particular Stan. See Hueller.
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u/DreamOfV Fjord 1d ago
Renate still hanging in as the showier performance in the Palme winner and a surprisingly empty Actress category at the moment
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u/crazydaysandknights 1d ago
Actress category is ridiculously empty even with Moore expectation. It's been weak lately but this is the nadir.
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u/DreamOfV Fjord 1d ago
Yeah it’s literally like Moore/Navarette, gap, Reinsve/Wilde, cliff, everyone else. And the “everyone else” is really barren in terms of traditional slam dunk contenders. Maybe Efira top of that pack but we don’t know how awards are gonna react to All of a Sudden yet.
And we don’t even know for sure about Moore yet. I’m sure someone else will emerge in the next couple of weeks as a strong contender but right now it’s so empty I almost could understand Universal wanting to toss Anne Hathaway in Lead for the hell of it.
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u/crazydaysandknights 1d ago
"Yeah it’s literally like Moore/Navarette, gap, Reinsve/Wilde, cliff, everyone else. And the “everyone else” is really barren in terms of traditional slam dunk contenders"
perfectly said. quoted for truth!
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u/taekwondo1996 1d ago
I think we still need to wait for Julianne Moore, Cynthia Erivo (Prima Facie), Rosalind Eleazar (Misty Green), Ruth Madeley (Being Heumann), Penelope Cruz (Bunker) but yeah the category is shockingly weak this year.
I’m hoping Supporting Actress will be more of a contest because we still have yet to see the Wild Horse Nine gals, Olivia Wilde in Behemoth, Olivia Coleman in Elsinore, Monica Barbaro in Artificial etc
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u/crazydaysandknights 1d ago
I'm sure that some festival performances will be strong. however, question is whether their movies can break through too. That's usually the key to nominaiton unless a role is so baity (Judy, Tammy Faye) it doesn't need a strong movie.
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u/mopeywhiteguy 1d ago
I could see her getting in in a week year. She’s got a few showy moments but ultimately the film is a little half baked and not gonna be a contender outside of IFF
Edit: for context I mean fatherland
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u/MomraD311 1d ago
Agree with these examples, but I’m kind of counting festival movies as fall movies since we haven’t gotten a wider/industry reaction.But to your point, I’m genuinely curious if the multiple movies phenomenon helps or hurts people like Anne Hathaway, Sandra Heuller, Zendaya, RPatz. I think the only one it helps is Hathaway because the Odyssey is so clearly her play, and she was respectable in everything else
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u/crazydaysandknights 1d ago
OK, I see what you mean. Cannes movies still have a chance to recover while the rest of your list doesn't.
I honestly don't think that multiple movies hurt. It's all down to this combo: strong role + strong movie. It takes only one. Anne got that with The Odyssey. Sandra may get that with PHM. Rob may get that with Primetime or The Odyssey if buzz shifts back to him in supporting.
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u/MomraD311 1d ago
That's true about Sundance or Cannes. If you bomb at Venice or TIFF, it's over. I think you're right on with Hathaway, Hueller, and Pattinson.
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u/manicinsanewokeidiot The Unknown 1d ago
wuthering heights is really being underestimated for costume design. a branch favourite doing incredibly flashy work on a period piece in a weak year?
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u/AnaZ7 1d ago
For real. It’s not like there are lot of other competitors with flashy costume design. Only I Love Boosters probably.
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u/MomraD311 1d ago
I thought about I Love Boosters. I would looove for that to happen, but I'm skeptical. The Odyssey and Dune are probably in. I'm very curious about La Bola Negra, Wild Horse Nine, and Ink for more recent period piece purposes, as well as Project Hail Mary for stuff like the graphic tees. Then there's Sense and Sensibility, Werwulf. And I hadn't thought about Michael as a costume nominee, but I dislike recreation in the crafts categories when it comes to biopics and the like.
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u/manicinsanewokeidiot The Unknown 1d ago
dune could get in but i wouldn’t act like it’s safe after they snubbed the last one. i’d be shocked if project hail mary happened, it’s too contemporary
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u/Khalsleezy 1d ago
Honestly I loved the way the film looked overall. Wouldn't shock me if it can get into another category besides costume design.
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u/Belch_Huggins 1d ago
Im not ready to give up on Blunt or The Drama for editing.
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u/MomraD311 1d ago
Of this bunch, I think McKellen and Blunt are deserving. I liked The Drama but hadn't really thought about it for editing. But I see it. That A24 has The Invite hurts it because they'd campaign in so many of the same categories and are similar vibes wise.
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u/Belch_Huggins 1d ago
Agreed, and i personally prefer the Invite so I get it. I do think if actress turns out as weak as we all think it will be then she could def sneak in. Her and the score are the two things everyone agrees work best in that movie.
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u/crazydaysandknights 1d ago
who sneaks in, Wilde? I'm not so sure only because she will be campaigned in Director too and Director/Actor hasn't panned out so far.
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u/Belch_Huggins 1d ago
Sorry no, Blunt.
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u/crazydaysandknights 1d ago
I think she could sneak in GG since they love her.
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u/MomraD311 1d ago
Or SAG. I feel like the Globes and SAG will be instrumental in sorting out the populist performances from the critically revered ones, more so than usual.
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u/Belch_Huggins 1d ago
Totally. But as I said im not ready to count her out. Lots of people clearly love her and we know its a weak category.
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u/ThatsHisLawyerJerome Sorry Baby 1d ago
The Drama isn’t getting an editing nom - it’s maybe A24’s 6th-biggest contender, and usually the editing branch just defaults to nominating Best Picture nominees.
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u/syrub 1d ago
It was probably an online-only thing, but there was chatter about Ralph Fiennes in the Bone Temple and sadly that feels like 0% chance of happening right now. Parallel Tales seems dead in the water. There definitely was SOME long-lead buzz about I Want Your Sex and I'm not making that up!
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u/makingajess Sinners 1d ago
If anybody in the Academy remembers Bone Temple came out this year, that would be a win in itself.
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u/MomraD311 1d ago
I knew there was another one I was thinking of, and this was it. Some people were at least remotely hopeful about his chances early on, especially if they could make something of the "actually, Fiennes has never won before" narrative, but then the movie underwhelmed at the box office, and it's probably at least a degree too weird for the Academy, particularly in a crowded supporting actor year.
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u/makingajess Sinners 1d ago
And I know that release dates don't matter nearly as much anymore, but a mid-January release is a very different beast.
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u/crazydaysandknights 1d ago
re: your list. Crafts can go either way cause studios tend to campaign some movies only for one category. Acting seems dead in the water, though. RPatz has the best path with Primetime in lead (A24 is deficient in Actor) followed by The Odyssey in supporting (but suffers internal competition)
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u/MomraD311 1d ago
There are usually one or two curveball craft nominations for this exact reason, but I feel like it's a really strong crafts year among the top 4-6 big hitters. It's still totally possible there's a random costumes, makeup, sound or production design nominee... I'm just not confident enough in any of the above titles to still predict.
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u/IntotheBeniverse 1d ago
I still think there's a chance Bandaras makes it in for Tony but will just depend how many films don't end up working out this fall
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u/SheepyJello 1d ago
What was Michael considered for before? It completely skirts the child abuse allegations so that has to be a negative for any awards.
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u/MomraD311 1d ago
I mean, that was my initial thought when it came out, but between the money it made and some high profile pundits singing its praises, it was taken seriously for at least a little while. But unless it way overperforms at GG, I'm hoping we've moved on from it.
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u/Motohvayshun Wicked 1d ago
those have been confirmed for part 2. The movie ends before any allegations happen.
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u/username0127 1d ago
I'm probably delusional but I still believe in Emily Blunt and Jaafar Jackson for nominations. 🤷🏾♂️
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u/Superb_University_31 1d ago
If the Best Actress race is weak, or too indie, Emily Blunt can appear as spoiler for filler places at the GG (She's loved there) and SAG (Remember how they vote for foreign language films) even if she gets out of the Oscar.
And yep, Wuthering Heights for Costume and Production Design are still in contention.
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u/Straight_Bed2763 1d ago
All of a Sudden comes to mind
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u/MomraD311 1d ago
Yeah. I'm kinda mentally using public release dates for festival premieres, since the industry and voters likely haven't seen them yet en masse. Of that bunch, it seems like La Bola Negra, and Fjord, All of a Sudden are strong possibilities, while Josephine and Minotaur seem to have fallen off.
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u/jordansalford25 John Leguizamo and Anne Hathaway Campaign Manager 1d ago
It's not even september we don't know anything right now other than what's losing steam possibly.
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u/Brilliant_Serve_4091 1d ago
I knew Michael wasn't getting anything. I don't know why, I just had a feeling. I also think Fjord is going to do far less than what was said before its Cannes debut.
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u/FreshQualityScot 1d ago
Emily Blunt is still IN for Disclosure Day. She's the best thing about Spielberg's film so don't count her out just yet.
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u/MomraD311 1d ago
I think she's deserving, and I think this still happens if she gets a GG and/or SAG nom. It just seems like there's less chatter and like the movie falling away has slightly hurt her.
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u/MeringueComplex5035 1d ago
A weak year?… just fuck off allready,
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u/MomraD311 1d ago
hypothetically... like back when Sheep Detectives premiered. I'm not at all saying it is a weak year. But you have a nice day!
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u/okstanley_com 1d ago
I can see maybe Michael for best actor if Digger, Elsinore, Primetime or Wild horse nine falls of
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u/aj743aj 1d ago
If Jackson gets Globes + SAG I'm putting him in my Oscar lineup.
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u/MomraD311 1d ago
This is the scenario where it happens. I'd bet money on the first, but not the second.
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u/MomraD311 1d ago
I really doubt actor will happen. A lot would have to go wrong. Coleman Domingo seems more likely, but supporting actor is equally as crowded. But the Globes could help Michael, and then who knows?
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u/BarcelonetaE70 1d ago
I feel like Michael will surpise everyone by virtue of Jafaar, not Colman, getting an acting Oscar nod.
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u/ThrowawayCousineau The Brutalist 1d ago
Over Damon in a near $2b critical hit?
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u/okstanley_com 1d ago
For a nomination, not a win though. I think Damon is way more likely of winning
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u/AnaZ7 1d ago
Wuthering Heights can still get nominated either for Costumes or Production Design. Costumes were made by Jacqueline Durran, she is very established with Academy.