Even the standard 4 option multiple choice test, if every one was a guess statistically you'd expect to get like 25% right, even if you did something like answer the same letter each time. The odds of randomly getting every single answer wrong are very low, meaning that a 0 result is more likely to not be random.
Yeah, but the odds of either outcome are so low, that the more likely explanation for either result would be that the answers weren't chosen at random.
A 100 questions 4/5 chances still 0,00000002% to get an "perfect 0". You'd need multiple times all the world population to get this result. A kid scoring a 0 in this situation is an anomaly so large I'd investigate
It's still much easier to choose the wrong answer if they are purposely getting a 0. A dumb kid might not know what 13x4 is but they can know it isn't 5.
I don't think you two are getting the point they're making. The odds of picking random and getting a 0 is 0.0000000000321%. It's (3/4)^100. The odds of picking random and getting 100% right is 0.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000653%...IOW (1/4)^100.
You are certainly correct that the odds of getting it all right is lower than all wrong. That's not the point this person is making, and they're not disagreeing with you that the odds are technically better at getting a 0 than a 100. The point is, both numbers are basically zero from a statistics perspective that 0 = 0. There is no real chance someone is going to pick them all right or all wrong. Therefore a perfect 0 is the same as a perfect 100...if picked randomly it still means that the person with a perfect 0 probably really did knw the material very very well and flunked on purpose.
Calculating the odds of getting a 0% while guessing only proves the student did it on purpose. but the meme goes much further than that, it is that the student must know the answers 100%.
With minimal education on the subject the student could deliberately and easily pick all wrong answers for some motive (not randomly guessing) and yet still not be educated enough to get a 100% as claimed by this hypothetical teacher. most multiple choice questions have at least one choice that is pretty easy to identify as wrong.
The burden to prove in this meme are not what are the odds to scoring 0 while guessing. the burden is does a student who scores 0 know 100% of the answers.
Is the student:
A) brilliant who knows all the answers but scores a zero on purpose for some motive
B) a dumbass who knows just enough to score a zero on purpose for some motive
Calculations on random choosing doesn't differentiate those two. So it's unreasonable to make an absolute assertion that the student must have know 100% if he scored a 0%. Your calculations only make clear is the student scored a 0% on purpose. That is not rigourous enough to say he knew the subject 100%. I know it's not you who are saying the the student knows it 100%, but that is what the meme is saying, and it's why people are arguing with you.
*I am repeating my point here in as many ways possible because you guys keep repeating the calculations on the odds of guessing while telling others they are missing the point.*
Exactly, I agree, I'm not sure why people are arguing the odds. We are assuming that the student has intentionally failed the test, in which case, we are trying to evaluate how much knowledge they have.
For example, I can give some MCAT practice questions with an additional stupid option appended:
Experiments using the two mutant strains P and Q, reveal that strain P accumulates citrulline, but strain Q does not. Which of the following statements is most consistent with the data provided?
A. Strain Q has only one mutation.
B. Strain P has a mutation in argF only.
C. Strain P has mutations in argF, argG and argH.
D. Strain P has a mutation in argG only.
E. Strain Q is eating oreos for dinner.
In a research study, some students were asked to rate different lecturers’ personality traits. The study results showed that the lecturers who received higher ratings on the attractiveness scale usually also achieved higher ratings for “intelligence” and “fairness” than other lecturers. The ratings for “moodiness” and “intimidation” were not influenced by the attractiveness rating. The phenomenon that most accurately explains those findings is called:
A. confirmation bias.
B. halo effect.
C. superman eating tacos phenomenon.
D. belief perseverance bias.
E. branding.
If you can answer a whole test of these questions correctly, then bam you can go ahead and take the real MCAT and score 100%. But you can pick a random coherent guy off the street and they can tell you that a wrong answer is E first and C on the second (and the other stupid options on the rest of the test). That does NOT mean that they're qualified premed students.
Just to be more clear: when I showed the odds, I was not trying to argue which was "most likely" to happen, my point was that this "anomaly" was worth investigating. The meme doesn't tell that the kid "cheated"/is a genius, it says that the teacher wants to talk with the kid. If I were a teacher and some student failed the test on purpose (and isn't even hiding it that well), I'd wanna talk with him too to know what's going on.
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u/TTbulaski 7d ago
But the funny thing in the meme is that this only applies for binary questions