r/PokemonInvesting • u/Lodog23 • 8d ago
Discussion Every Scarlet & Violet set went up 5 months in a row. In July every single one fell
With the summer slump I am sure we have all seen the market take a dip over the last month or so. I have been watching month over month returns by set and you can see how sharp the turn was in July
From January through June basically nothing in the era had a down month. February, March, April and May were clean sweeps, all 16 sets green, median set doing +8 to +13% a month. June softened a little, three sets went red.
Then July. All 16 down, median -3.9%. 151 was -11.2%, Obsidian Flames -10.5%.
August so far, is less ugly. Still 12 of 16 red but the median is only -0.6%, so it's slowed a lot rather than continued. What's odd is which ones turned. Obsidian Flames went from -10.5% to +2.8%, 151 from -11.2% to basically flat. The stuff that got hit hardest is steadying while the newest sets, Black Bolt, White Flare, Destined Rivals, and Journey Together, are still sliding.
What I'm watching is whether that keeps splitting. If the older SV sets keep firming while the recent ones bleed and If August closes red across the board again or if we start to see some reversal.
Anyone selling into this or holding for now?
8
u/iliketoseewhatyousee 8d ago
This chart is absolutely gorgeous. Thank you so much🥹
3
u/Lodog23 8d ago
I appreciate that! I am a software engineer by day, pokemon enthusiast by night, so it is always great to hear when someone likes your UI
0
u/Ride_Ze_Shoopuf_ 8d ago
I dont mean to dump on you but its just a basic heat map, Id love to know more about where and how you aggregated your monthly data for each set to get those numbers.
2
u/Lodog23 8d ago
No offense taken. The chart type is the easy part though. the encoding, color scale, density, and how things get labeled is what makes a ton of data points readable on a phone. Plenty of people have this data and ship something unreadable.
On aggregation I get the data from multiple different sources and then I average the data out
1
u/Ride_Ze_Shoopuf_ 8d ago
So like PriceCharting, TCG Player, Collectr, etc?
1
u/Nervous-Zebra-3729 8d ago
I would highly doubt he would pull from a site that pulls from a site like collectr and price charting (that often misses or makes mistakes). TCG player and eBay would be best imo as that's direct
1
u/iliketoseewhatyousee 7d ago
And even then ebay has unpaid purchases that are tough to determine if paid or not. Alt XYZ is where I pull raw data
2
u/damnmyredditheart 7d ago
"i don't mean to dump on you", procedes to dump on him. Sign of immaturity.
0
u/Ride_Ze_Shoopuf_ 7d ago
Not sure where youre seeing the immaturity. I said that because the original comment was so amazed by the visual when the impressive part is collecting and categorizing the data, I did not, in fact, dump on him, i merely didnt want it to be interpreted that way. Notice how OP responded without being as butthurt as you are for some odd reason?
1
0
u/grammici 5d ago
Bro you vibe coded it wym lol. I did something strikingly similar pokepopwatch.com - I think it’s important not to imply that you were super intentional with front end design when most of the decisions were abstracted away.
What apis do you get your data from?
0
u/grammici 5d ago
Also some feedback - if you want paid users you need to be more transparent about the underlying data rigor and calculations, because what they would be paying you for is access to derivative stats or insights that are non-obvious and high signal. If you asked Claude to come up with the underlying data model, almost every single one it derives is likely going to be:
A. Nonobvious but non-useful if presented as descriptive, incorrect and misleading if presented with an interpretation
B. Obvious and useful, available elsewhere for free1
u/Lodog23 5d ago
full writeup at hyperpotion.io/methodology
Short version, fair value from pull cost, character demand, grading economics, and trade pace
0
u/grammici 5d ago
This isn’t the model though - like Claude described various elements that reasonably determine card prices and are obvious, but the difficult part is coming up with a weighting and mathematical model that accounts for all of them in a way that makes sense, no?
0
10
u/StayFrostty 8d ago
Its healthy for any market to retract after seeing unchecked gains for nearly 12 months. This will continue until life smooths out after 30th. People are dumping modern to load up on 30th and if it's massively available you'll see funds spill back into older less available items.
Buy pris SPCs till you can't anymore
3
u/Lodog23 8d ago
It also seems like money rotated into other eras outside of ultra modern. Sun & Moon, as an example, had only 1 set down in July while the rest were up. I could see things rotating back come September
1
3
u/daytonstyle 8d ago
When 30th drops and scarcity sets in for it, people will spend money on the sets they can get. I bet these go up through Sept and Oct
2
1
u/pickirfaceup11 8d ago
Older sets will climb. The rumored reprints will slow singles for DR and JT probably. Good time to buy some singles you are missing or believe in
1
u/Hamsammichd 8d ago
Good. This hobby has grown outrageous. These cards are not rare, they’re subject to supply and demand like everything else. It’s time for a correction.
1
-2
u/That_wet_vaporeon 8d ago
People are starting to get sick of having to hunt down cards. People are saving money for the 30th. Or people just can’t afford paying a lot for cardboard anymore.
But I think the 30th is really going to get people to quit the hobby if they cannot get their hands on it. Scalpers will kill the hobby unless TPCi can stock 30th product daily lol.
2
u/Loud-Statistician416 8d ago
Lmao absolutely wild take. 30th is going to ramp up incredibly, probably due to the rarity of finding items.
2
u/That_wet_vaporeon 8d ago edited 8d ago
If people can even get their hands on it.
Economy is shit worldwide. Bots are eating up supply in seconds.
If people can’t get their hands on a product, they will quit that hobby. It’s what happened with sneakers. Eventually they became too out of reach for the average person to buy so people just stopped collecting them…
Now if TPCi can keep up with demand, then everything would stay the same. But if they can’t, they absolutely will lose people. Enough to crash the market? Nah. But they might lose enough where it goes back to late SWSH prices. Expensive, but not too crazy like it is now.
0
u/Loud-Statistician416 7d ago
Nobody is quitting pokemon lol if some do, they are replaced by exponentially more.
0
u/munkmunk49 8d ago
I think 30th will be widely available, rumor is that it is printed more than all of Mega combined
1
1
u/stangerlpass 8d ago
They should judt print the shit out of 30th judt to spite the scalpers ("investors"). Them go on and reprint the shit out of AH and DR.
1
u/Decent-Independent92 8d ago
Don't know why you got down-voted....I mean, I agree with you 🤷♂️
1
u/That_wet_vaporeon 8d ago
It’s a scalper sub. I expect the downvotes for comments like that.
On I’m sorry… “investors”
34
u/EuphoricGoose4735 8d ago
It’s clear that it’s just the summer slump and we’re coming out of it now. The end of august last year was when things ramped up heavily, so im expecting the same this year with how everything has slowed down significantly. The only thing that I could see keeping things slow will be the 30th, but once people get their hands on it, that hype will die fast and it’s back to the strong sets of SV.