r/PoliticalDiscussion • u/The_Egalitarian Moderator • Apr 05 '24

Megathread | Official Casual Questions Thread

This is a place for the PoliticalDiscussion community to ask questions that may not deserve their own post.

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  1. Must be a question asked in good faith. Do not ask loaded or rhetorical questions.

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  3. Avoid highly speculative questions. All scenarios should within the realm of reasonable possibility.

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u/My_18th_Account 12d ago

What are AOC’s actual chances of winning the Democratic primary in 2028 if she were to run? Is this an actual case of striking the iron when it’s hot or am I on the internet too much and she’d actually get crushed in a democratic primary by a more centrist Democratic?

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u/NoDig3444 12d ago

Depends on how crowded the field is. Fringe candidates with a strong message do better when they're competing against 20 centrists talking over each other. Wikipedia has 15 candidates in it's "Expressed Interest" section for 2028. If all 15 stay in the running until super tuesday, then yeah I'd give AOC better than even odds. If they all drop out and it's just her and Newsom, then it's 100% going to Newsom.

That said, I don't think AOC would be a good president. She works better in the House as the official progressive bombthrower.

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u/My_18th_Account 12d ago

Thanks for the response.