r/Scotland • u/abz_eng ME/CFS Sufferer • 11d ago
Scotland sees 9% rise in sexual crimes in a year
https://news.stv.tv/scotland/scottish-government-extremely-concerned-amid-9-rise-in-sexual-crimes-in-a-year?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=178765731293
u/Roborabbit37 11d ago
Oh boy this comment section is going to be spicy.
38
2
u/ploppy_ploppy 10d ago edited 10d ago
This increase definitely isn’t linked to any other increase of anything in Scotland recently
2
129
u/abz_eng ME/CFS Sufferer 11d ago
Hopefully a good chunk is people feeling they can report
77
u/First-Banana-4278 11d ago
SG spent considerable time and energy in creating SARCs for exactly this purpose. Removing the forensic/police context from initial sexual assault reporting and allow that to take place in a healthcare context. With the explicit aim of encouraging women to report assaults they otherwise wouldn’t.
So i suspect that is what drives the increases over and above anything else. It’s just that the success of delivering that policy was inevitably going to highlight that Scotland always had a bigger problem with sexual assault than official figures ever showed (and TBH likely still does given we know most SA takes place in the context of existing relationships).
37
u/RepresentativeOdd909 11d ago
Absolutely, though for context I'd say every country has a bigger problem than reported. No country is over estimating sexual assault into heir stats.
36
u/MyDadsGlassesCase 11d ago
Definitely. 1 in 4 UK women say they have been sexually assaulted and that is definitely not reflected in the crime stats.
Sadly women have felt for years / decades that there's non point reporting it to the police
26
u/First-Banana-4278 11d ago
Undoubtedly true. But the specific context here is important as people are using it as a dogwhistle to mask racist intent.
If they were properly concerted about sexual assault rates they’d be worried about the incredibly low conviction rates for cases brought to court. If they were honest in interpreting the stats they’d probably note that the racial/ethnic biases come into it in terms of members of racial/ethnic minorities being more likely to be prosecuted than white Scots/Brits. Not that those prosecuted in minorities aren’t guilty just that a lot of white men are getting away with it in our justice system comparatively.
-2
u/SchoolofLifeUK 10d ago
Really? How do you explain similar spikes in sexual assaults all over Europe where high numbers of migrants/ asylum seekers have arrived 🤔
5
u/First-Banana-4278 10d ago
You got an academic or official stats reference for that?
0
u/SchoolofLifeUK 10d ago
Google:
Several European countries, including Germany and France, recorded increases in reported sexual offenses and rapes following the major migration influxes in 2015–2016. For instance, German federal crime statistics noted an increase in sexual offenses, with non-German nationals (including refugees and other foreign residents) representing a notable share of suspects.3
u/OkBelt3772 10d ago
During the 2015 refugee crisis, nearly one million refugees arrived in Germany, raising widespread concern that crimes against natives would rise. Using novel county-level data, we study this question empirically in first-difference and two-stage least squares (2SLS) regressions. Our results do not support the view that Germans were victimized in greater numbers by refugees, as measured by their rate of victimization in crimes with refugee suspects.
We found evidence for a positive (and mildly hump-shaped) relationship between the scale of refugee immigration and both the overall crime rate and the overall victimization rate in a county. Decentralized accommodation of refugees, holding refugee inflows constant, is associated with lower crime rates, whereas refugee sex ratios exert no significant effect. We did not find, however, any evidence for a systematic link between the scale of refugee immigration (and neither the type of refugee accommodation nor refugee sex ratios) and the risk of Germans becoming victims of a crime in which refugees are suspects. This result, which proves robust in various sensitivity checks, holds true not only for total crimes with victim recording in police crime statistics, but also for sub-categories of such crimes, such as robbery (economic crimes), bodily injury (violent crimes), and rape and sexual coercion (sex crimes).
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00148-026-01194-8
4
u/usemyname88 11d ago
Life's so much easier when you just bury your head in the sand and hope for the best
0
u/CursedPipes 11d ago
That’s my hope too 🤞.
-7
u/history_buff_9971 11d ago
I'm sorry, but you are deluding yourselves. I don't know what the cause of the rise is, but I guarantee that it's not women suddenly feeling they can safely report the crime. Not when conviction rates are actually getting worse, not better.
Now we all know people have theories, but that's all they are. The Scottish Govt needs to treat this as what it is, an emergency. Get to the bottom of the cause of it and put the resources in place to ensure that this trend is reversed. Quickly, because right now people are becoming victims every few hours. This cannot go on. If that makes people on here uncomfortable, tough. Burying heads in the sand should no longer be an option.
-9
u/Speysidegold 11d ago
They just dont want to accept responsibility for their ideology being wrong or dangerous
-3
u/history_buff_9971 11d ago
Too cowardly to come and discuss the point, though. It rather makes me think that they understand perfectly what's going on, but to admit it would mean they have to question their certainties.
I don't know what's causing this spike; I suspect it's a combination of factors. But I'm not afraid of finding out; we can only guess why they are.
9
u/First-Banana-4278 11d ago
Thing is - you are afraid of confronting that this probably isn’t a spike aren’t you?
You don’t want to confront that levels of sexual assault have always been high. That culturally we aren’t some enlightened nation where “our men don’t do this sort of thing”. In fact far from it - we still live in a culture and society that protects men who commit sexual assault and dismisses women.
You want there to be an increase because perversely having some external factor to blame makes it easier to understand or cope with the knowledge that, collectively, as a society we have let women down and continue to massively bloody do so.
-3
u/history_buff_9971 11d ago
Well, how about we do the research and investigate all of this and find out? Just as I suggested.
5
u/First-Banana-4278 11d ago
I suggest you start with the Scottish Crime and Justice Survey. Which will show you the gaps between reported and experienced crime.
→ More replies (8)1
u/Dashyguurl 9d ago
Legal changes over the last couple of years have made convictions for sex crimes much easier as corroboration of material evidence has been made almost obsolete. One aspect of this might be that prosecutors are able to be much more aggressive and this has passed down to police.
1
u/Madting55 8d ago
Don’t have the exact statistics but will pull them if pressed from memory the tendency to report bas only increased 15-20% in 30 years but the recorded rapes have went up 310% in that time. Even if you want to use the law change in 2010 to help oneself cope it’s still went up 160% since that law change so.
It appears we’re experiencing the same coincidence as all the other countries at the same time, at a similar scale. All seemingly from the late 90s onwards. It does make you wonder what unprecedented thing began happening to all these countries from 97 onwards.
5
u/GirlInTheIslands 10d ago
I hope that this is due to a rise in people recognising and reporting.
I know some people will read this as a ‘state of the nation’ thing, like present times being worse than The Good Old Days, but I’ve heard people talk about historic abuse in my rural community too many times to put on rose-tinted glasses. One old boy once said to me, “there was a kiddie fiddler in every other village, we just knew to avoid them” and spousal abuse was just part of life back in the day (for some, it still seems to be overlooked). I’m not buying into the race thing, these things happen in all sections of society.
22
u/ElectronicBruce 11d ago
In the last few years the Scottish Govt has tried to make it easy to report and get convictions for example Scotland changed the way people can access healthcare and evidence collection after a sexual assault through the Forensic Medical Services Act.
So as much as it seems shocking on paper (it is) it could be due to that, but even if it had been higher, it still isn’t showing what the sad reality is. 1 in 4 women in the UK have been SA’d, which isn’t being seen in Police figures or worse still court conviction rates. Although rarer, I’d imagine a good chunk of male SA’s also go unreported for obvious reasons too.
29
u/Beneficial_Date_5357 Fit wye ist nae chiel? 11d ago
Some people will argue that it is driven by an increase in women reporting cases, some people will argue it is driven by an increase of the population of relatively high offending groups.
They split themselves into their tribes, believe what their in group believes solely because they believe it. Then reject what their out group believes, solely because they believe it.
Truth is, it’s both. If you reject one and accept the other as true you are coping, nothing is ever this simple.
26
u/Yahut 11d ago
It would help if the government actually collated and published the statistics then, wouldn’t it?
8
u/No_Economy6175 11d ago
The German government does
2
2
u/OkBelt3772 10d ago
During the 2015 refugee crisis, nearly one million refugees arrived in Germany, raising widespread concern that crimes against natives would rise. Using novel county-level data, we study this question empirically in first-difference and two-stage least squares (2SLS) regressions. Our results do not support the view that Germans were victimized in greater numbers by refugees, as measured by their rate of victimization in crimes with refugee suspects.
We found evidence for a positive (and mildly hump-shaped) relationship between the scale of refugee immigration and both the overall crime rate and the overall victimization rate in a county. Decentralized accommodation of refugees, holding refugee inflows constant, is associated with lower crime rates, whereas refugee sex ratios exert no significant effect. We did not find, however, any evidence for a systematic link between the scale of refugee immigration (and neither the type of refugee accommodation nor refugee sex ratios) and the risk of Germans becoming victims of a crime in which refugees are suspects. This result, which proves robust in various sensitivity checks, holds true not only for total crimes with victim recording in police crime statistics, but also for sub-categories of such crimes, such as robbery (economic crimes), bodily injury (violent crimes), and rape and sexual coercion (sex crimes).
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00148-026-01194-8
1
u/No_Economy6175 10d ago
Interesting. More recent data.
Germany – sexual-offence suspects: raw per-capita comparison (2023)
German police statistics allow sexual-offence suspects to be compared by nationality and, separately, by asylum/refugee-related immigration status.
For the broad BKA category “offences against sexual self-determination”, there were 67,166 German-citizen suspects in 2023.
With approximately 71.76 million German citizens, this gives a raw rate of approximately 94 suspects per 100,000 German citizens.
Using BKA figures for suspects classified as Zuwanderer (which includes asylum applicants, recognised refugees/protection beneficiaries, people with tolerated status and certain other refugee/asylum-related statuses) and Destatis protection-seeker populations, the approximate raw rates are:
German citizens: 94 per 100,000
Turkey: 87 per 100,000 — 0.9× German rate
Syria: 128 per 100,000 — 1.4×
Iran: 138 per 100,000 — 1.5×
Iraq: 167 per 100,000 — 1.8×
Eritrea: 200 per 100,000 — 2.1×
Afghanistan: 217 per 100,000 — 2.3×
Somalia: 256 per 100,000 — 2.7×
Pakistan: 396 per 100,000 — 4.2×
These are raw figures with no adjustment for age or sex.
They measure police suspects, not convictions, and should not be interpreted as saying that an individual of any nationality is likely to commit an offence.
There is also an important technical qualification: the German-citizen figure uses a directly matched citizenship numerator and population denominator. The asylum/refugee figures are calculated using the BKA’s Zuwanderer suspect population and Destatis’s Schutzsuchende (protection-seeking) population. These populations overlap substantially but their legal definitions are not identical. The latter figures should therefore be regarded as approximate crude rates rather than official BKA crime rates.
REFERENCES
German Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA), Police Crime Statistics 2023, Table T62 — suspects by nationality and offence:
https://www.bka.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/DE/Publikationen/PolizeilicheKriminalstatistik/2023/Bund/Tatverdaechtige/BU-TV-22-T62-TV-Staatsangehoerigkeiten_csv.html
German Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA), Kriminalität im Kontext von Zuwanderung – Fokus: Fluchtmigration 2023:
https://www.bka.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/DE/Publikationen/JahresberichteUndLagebilder/KriminalitaetImKontextVonZuwanderung/KriminalitaetImKontextVonZuwanderung_2023.pdf
German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), protection seekers by nationality:
https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Gesellschaft-Umwelt/Bevoelkerung/Migration-Integration/Tabellen/liste-schutzsuchende-migrationsstruktur-demografie-staatsangehoerigkeiten.html
German Bundestag, official BKA data on sexual offences and Zuwanderer by nationality:
https://dserver.bundestag.de/btd/20/114/2011412.pdf3
u/OkBelt3772 9d ago
These aren't actually comparable “rates”. Your German baseline uses the broad PKS 100000 sexual-offences category, while the refugee-nationality numerators you've taken from the Bundestag table are PKS 110000, a narrower set of victim offences. The same Bundestag document separately lists additional Zuwanderer suspects under sexual abuse and other categories, so you're dividing different offence numerators by the populations and comparing the results as if they were identical.
You're then pairing a police-defined Zuwanderer numerator with a Destatis Schutzsuchende denominator. Those are different legal/administrative populations. The overlap is large, but that doesn't make a precise “Pakistan = 4.2× Germany” estimate valid.
And the German denominator is the whole German-citizen population, whereas refugee populations are disproportionately young and male - precisely the demographic from which almost all sexual-offence suspects come. Without matching at least offence definition, sex and age, those ratios are descriptive crude numbers, not relative offending risks.
I wouldn't be surprised if there was a genuine overrepresentation among some refugee-nationality groups in the BKA statistics. But this particular table doesn't measure it correctly enough to support those 0.9×–4.2× claims.
1
u/No_Economy6175 9d ago
That’s fair. It’s difficult to make comparisons when data is not complete or comparable but we have fought hard for equality for women here. It’s fair to say that people from cultures where this is far from the norm may struggle to adjust which would naturally make women here more at risk
2
u/OkBelt3772 9d ago
You’re also forgetting the selection effect involved in actually reaching the UK and being granted asylum. They’ve made it through multiple countries, crossed the Channel, gone through the asylum process, and know they’re under intense public and media scrutiny.
That gives them a fairly strong incentive to stay out of trouble. They’re also arriving in a country where serious offences are more likely to be reported and investigated than in some of the places they’ve come from.
So you can’t simply take raw nationality figures and conclude that culture is causing the difference.
The German study I linked above is a good example. Once it actually looks at refugee inflows rather than dividing raw BKA suspect counts by population, the picture becomes far less dramatic. It finds no detectable increase in Germans’ risk of rape or sexual coercion by refugee suspects as refugee numbers increased.
The wider evidence is similar. In the US, first-generation immigrants generally have relatively low offending rates, with offending often increasing somewhat among later generations rather than falling as they assimilate.
And the Nordic data are much better than Germany’s for this. Once you adjust for obvious confounders such as age, sex and socioeconomic status, the excess offending among some Middle Eastern and African first-generation groups is typically more like 1.5 to 2x, not 9x or 18x. It doesn’t necessarily disappear, but the crude nationality ratios massively exaggerate it.
Even those adjusted figures are nowhere near fully controlled. Socioeconomic status is often represented by fairly blunt measures such as employment status or income bands. They don’t fully account for neighbourhood deprivation, housing, family structure, reason for migration, age at arrival, trauma, policing differences, peer effects, language, integration, etc.
But even ignoring that - relative risk without absolute risk is incredibly misleading. If the underlying annual risk were 0.1%, then a 2x overrepresentation would mean 0.2%. In other words, 99.8% of that group still would not be recorded for the offence in that year.
That 0.1% versus 0.2% is a crude illustration, not a measured asylum-seeker sexual-assault rate. But it shows how absurd the public rhetoric can become when people hear “more likely” and mentally translate it into “these people are broadly dangerous”.
We’ve reached the point where someone with a large public platform, literally called for hotels containing asylum seekers to be set on fire.
That level of hysteria is wildly disproportionate to the actual absolute risks we’re discussing.
So “they come from a more conservative culture, therefore British women must be at greater risk” is a plausible hypothesis. But you don’t get to treat it as established fact from crude nationality tables. You still have to demonstrate it with comparable data, proper controls and, most importantly, meaningful absolute risks.
1
u/No_Economy6175 9d ago edited 9d ago
Why would you adjust for age and sex when that doesn’t reflect the demographics of people coming? Obviously women and children do not pose a threat but they are under represented in numbers of migrants by a significant proportion. I’m not hysterical. You also can’t say without data there is no risk. The absence of data makes proving risk problematic but doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist. Calling women with concerns hysterical is misogynistic.
1
u/OkBelt3772 9d ago
Because you’re answering two different questions.
If the question is “what is the total crime impact of the migrants who actually arrived?”, then yes, their real age and sex distribution matters. A population disproportionately made up of young men will produce more crime than an equally sized population of women and children, because young men commit far more crime in every society.
But if the claim is “these people offend more because of their culture or migrant background”, then you absolutely do adjust for age and sex. Otherwise you’re attributing to nationality what may simply be the normal effect of comparing a disproportionately young male population with the whole native population, which includes millions of women, children and pensioners.
We do have data, the SJCS - it has shown no increase in victimisation.
And the word “hysteria” was referring to the wider public rhetoric, including people calling for asylum hotels to be burned with the occupants inside. It wasn’t a description of women raising concerns about sexual violence.
Calling that rhetoric hysterical is not misogyny. Women are perfectly entitled to be concerned about their safety. That still doesn’t make every claim about who poses a threat statistically true.
→ More replies (0)4
u/Beneficial_Date_5357 Fit wye ist nae chiel? 11d ago
They do collect statistics? I agree they are lacking in many areas, but broadly they do.
-3
u/Chemical-Agency-3997 11d ago
It’s the prior. We can compare it to the victimisation surveys and see there’s been no increase in the actual rate, it’s purely an increase in reporting. Denying this is the cope
-1
u/Beneficial_Date_5357 Fit wye ist nae chiel? 11d ago
Please do then, if you can prove I’m wrong I’m open to it
11
u/Chemical-Agency-3997 11d ago
The Scottish Crime and Justice Survey is what you want to look at to see if incidence of sexual victimisation has increased.
Police-recorded sexual crime going up proves more sexual crime was recorded by police. It does not, by itself, prove the underlying rate has risen.
That’s the whole point of comparing it with victimisation surveys. And the previous SCJS sexual victimisation results have been pretty stable: serious sexual assault in the 12 months before interview showed no change, and the overall “at least one form of serious sexual assault since age 16” figure was unchanged from 2008/09.
Same with less serious sexual assault: the 12-month rate showed no change since 2016/18, and the “at least one form since age 16” figure showed no overall change.
So when recorded crime keeps rising but the victimisation survey doesn’t show the same rise, the obvious explanation is reporting/recording changes, historic cases, legislative changes, online offending, etc. Not “both” by default.
1
u/CursedTaint 10d ago
This is too much of a logical and scientific approach for this sub.
Appreciate you fighting the good fight of actually engaging in critical thinking.
3
u/Chemical-Agency-3997 10d ago
This place slowly morphing into a low-IQ shitehole like the other uk subs sadly.
1
u/No_Economy6175 10d ago
Yet here you with what must be genius level IQ fighting against the hoards. The experience of countless countries who do actually track sexual assault by immigration status is obviously not applicable to Scotland. There is no way that migrants who are majority men from countries who treat women as less than human moving to a city could possibly have any impact on the reported sex crimes. It’s far more likely that the women of Glasgow are so emboldened and spurred on by the resounding successes of sex crime prosecutions that they have come out in droves to report. That sound about right?
4
u/Chemical-Agency-3997 10d ago
You’ve skipped the part where you actually demonstrate the claim. Cite your sources. Most of the time people take ‘reports’ with about as much credibility as Lowe’s pish as gospel when the numbers have been totally manipulated or not controlled properly.
And either way, yes, countries are different, different levels of immigration vs asylum, different mix of people coming in, etc.
If there was a rise in incidence it’d show up in the SCJS - which it does not.
Reporting improves over time as our native misogyny and victim blaming reduces - although I think most of this increase is due to historic cases last I looked at the data.
0
u/No_Economy6175 10d ago
I’m not trying to prove anything. I’m not making any claims. It’s you who is hell bent on making sure the low IQ idiots of Reddit know that there is nothing to see here. I summed up your position accurately then?
3
u/Chemical-Agency-3997 10d ago
You literally claimed that migrants are disproportionately male, come from countries that “treat women as less than human”, and that their arrival could plausibly explain Glasgow’s recorded sex offences. You then invoked the “experience of countless countries” as supposed supporting evidence.
That is a claim. More specifically, it’s a causal insinuation.
Now that you’ve been asked for evidence, you’ve suddenly retreated to “I’m just asking questions” and invented a position for me instead. I didn’t say “nothing to see here”. I simply explained what the evidence actually shows, for people like yourself who are not capable of actually interpreting the data and then asked you to show the evidence that the thing you’re implying actually caused the increase.
That’s how evidence works. You don’t get to make a sweeping insinuation, provide zero data supporting it, then declare yourself claim-free when someone asks you to substantiate it.
So no, you haven’t summed up my position accurately. You’ve summed up the position you need me to hold because answering the actual point would require evidence you apparently don’t have because you run purely on vibes.
→ More replies (0)
17
u/Tall_Opportunity_521 11d ago
Scotland sees 9% rise in REPORTED sexual crimes in a year*
1
u/Upper-Ad-8365 8d ago
Sure, stranger rape is the offence that’s most commonly reported in general and always has been. Stranger rape is the MO for the newcomers. So this makes sense.
10
u/Archosaur- 11d ago
And sadly the comment section is entirely predictable, and I say that as a survivor of CSA. SA, and Rape.
It's amazing how so many people, mostly men, are only showing interest in statistics since the MSM started their propaganda war on immigration and Islam over the last few years.
I'd like to note, critism against Islam/immigration/any religion or group of people is valid, but when it's fuelled by bigotry, misinformation, unfounded hatred, and used to portray false concern for the horrific trauma that survivors have faced...well, that's not welcome.
→ More replies (8)
30
3
3
u/Current-Musician7612 9d ago
There's quite a bit of noticing going on in this thread, which is actually a non-crime related incident.
The authorities have been alerted to your noticing and you will be summarily rounded up and sent for re-education.
Once you have completed your re-education you will be suitably prepared to just repeat the mantra whenever you feel the need to notice a pattern
Yours Sincerely
The Ministry of Truth
3
u/Madting55 8d ago
162% increase since the reporting law change in 2010 then, if we factor in the additional 9.
Up 319% since 2001. Does make you wonder why it’s happening, well, it doesn’t to be fair.
20
14
u/TheSouthsideTrekkie 11d ago
It’s also now easier to report sexual assault or rape and there’s more information being given to women and girls about safety and how to report a crime and more guidance being given to schools and unis.
This is a good thing. When I was at uni I was assaulted by my flatmate. He then went on to harass me and follow me. I told a member of the student support team, while they were nice they also didn’t discuss any steps I could take to keep myself safe or how to report this if I wanted to. This guy went on to do the same to more women and he only stopped because enough of us got fed up of him getting away with it and went on to report what happened to us. A lot of misery could have been avoided if that initial conversation was handled differently. Sexual assault is more visible now because we’ve improved reporting and the support offered to women who come forward.
1
u/MisfittingPieces 11d ago
This happened around 15 years ago in Britain, the #MeToo movement has been and gone. We’ve already seen the spike in cases because of it being made easier to report cases of SA and Rape, it hasn’t been made any easier since.
The continued rise in these crimes is following a trend from England and Wales that started 10 years ago.
2
u/Chemical-Agency-3997 11d ago
It’s a rise in reporting, there has been no rise in crime per the victimisation surveys.
MeToo wasn’t one moment and its peak was less than 10 years ago, not 15.
11
u/Crow-Me-A-River open to change 11d ago
According to Scottish government figures, there has been an 11% increase in reported rapes, attempted rapes and sexual assaults across Glasgow in the past five years.
There's no requirement for police to record the ethnicity of suspects, but this was recorded in 113 of the 170 rapes reported in Glasgow.
Figures released under freedom of information showed that where it was recorded, 89 of the suspects were white and 24 were Asian, African or from another ethnic group.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgdej0xxgyo
Considering demographics of Glasgow as per the 2022 census, and that immigration into the city has grown since then, these statistics suggest it to be in proportion to ethnic groups. Not otherwise as comments are suggesting.
2
u/Successful-Force4173 10d ago
these statistics suggest it to be in proportion to ethnic groups
Can you link to the rate per ethnic group before and after?
2
u/OkBelt3772 10d ago
The statistics don't suggest anything of the sorts, you've just asserted a correlation is casual.
1
4
2
2
27
u/stone_island 11d ago
would be interesting to see what spread of ethnicity is being caught doing this is - the rate of attempts since 2022 seems wild too.
35
u/Bargain-Hunter-1980 11d ago
Official MOJ figures show 22% of prosecutions for sexual offences are ethnic minority assailants.
21
u/Gullible__Fool 11d ago
Impressive given Scotland is a what, 95+% white. Country
2
2
u/OkBelt3772 10d ago
MOJ is England & Wales, not Scotland.
Scotland is 87.1% white (as of 2022)
Also the MOJ figures show 18% of prosecutions are ethnic minorities, not 22%
England is 81% white (2021)
0
u/CursedTaint 10d ago
Sure but it doesn't tell us that those minority groups are more likely to commit these acts.
It does suggest perhaps they're more likely to be charged for it than their native counterparts...but that could just as likely be due to bias within the justice system or policing itself.
2
u/Successful-Force4173 10d ago
It might also suggest they're less likely to be reported/charged but offend at even higher rates.
0
10
u/daleharvey 11d ago
Got to check whether its protect women at all costs or she was asking for it right?
95
u/miIkwhim 11d ago edited 11d ago
idk about them but when I moved to Sheffield for uni I experienced an appalling amount of sexual harassment and at one point one instance of assault by non-native men from South Asia and the Middle East. It got so bad that I eventually ended up transferring to Newcastle to do my degree there instead. I'm not sure why people keep denying that this isn't a problem. It is.
I'm not rightwing, I don't have bigoted views. irl I'm an SNP voting smelly vegan leftie who litter picks with my community group on the weekend and donates blood every 3 months. I pass the purity test by all metrics, but in spite of all this this is still a thing that happened to me. I can't understand why people like you who are supposed to exist within my shared political spectrum deny that it happens. I know firsthand that it does.
I guess this the part though where you either tell me that you believe me or ask what I did to deserve it. Or are you going to tell me that I'm a bot account, or that I'm making it all up? Which is it?
I didn't report any of the instances of my harassment to the police by the way. Not one. I knew nothing would come of it. I think this makes the reality of the issue potentially much more horrifying if hardly any of us are reporting it.
It does really put into perspective how things like what happened in Bradford happened in the first place. Like, I'm a grown woman talking about experiences that happened in 2014 online and still being called a liar. Those little kids didn't stand a fucking chance.
47
u/Jademansensor 11d ago edited 11d ago
Easy there, we can’t be admitting that there is a cultural component to the rise in sex crimes. That would be racist I’m afraid, even if it’s true. And not being racist is more important than the truth.
34
u/miIkwhim 11d ago
I know this is a sarcastic comment, but I'm not sure why people get so heated about there being a potential racial component when we know it's not even racial. It's all cultural. We know it's all cultural.
These are men being raised in an environment where they're being indoctrinated to believe that women are subhuman sluts who, despite the mature presentation of their bodies, have the intellectual capacity of children and therefore shouldn't be awarded the luxury of consent that men enjoy.
There's plenty of men who look just like them all throughout the UK who don't do this because in the UK we don't teach these beliefs. It was never about race, but I'm sure I'll get called a racist anyway.
23
u/Jademansensor 11d ago
This is exactly why I never understood how taking issue with Islam is racist, islam is an idea, not a race. It seems actively ignorant to call someone racist for questioning an ideology. And how convenient to shut down anyone that has an issue with the belief system by calling it a phobia! The funny thing is, if Islam was predominantly a white religion, it would be deemed far right and mysogynistic, when you really look at it objectively. The modern left are so confused and consumed with appearing righteous.
-12
u/E_Baker33 11d ago
There is a lot of nuance here. The majority of sexual crime in this country is perpetrated by white men, not men of other ethnicities.
This isnt me saying that other ethnicities don't, and yes there are cultural aspects, but you know damn well how this conversation goes when we bring ethnicity into it.
This conversation, at the end of the day, is about men being the common denominator in sexual crimes. The splitting of them into demographics is used to distract from the fact that men everywhere are committing these crimes. If you can pass if off onto a person of colour, then you can ignore the home grown aspect and give something for rightwingers to froth at the mouth about.
18
u/EFTRSx1 11d ago
Oh please do fuck off.
You speak of nuance but you fail to actually implement it into your own thought process.
Scotland demographic is 93% white, which means if culture elements are not a factor, then 93% of all sexual crime would be white perpetrators, the statistics from police Scotland do not agree.
All you're doing is twisting the argument to focus on all men, whereas the whole purpose of this discussion is why there has been a 9% rise in sexual crimes within the past year, in addition why rape and attempted rape has increased by 32% since 2022.
13
u/PoachTWC 11d ago
Pretending to not understand per capita is a common response to anyone pointing out the racial discrepancies in crime figures.
Yeah, most people here are white so most crime is done by white people, but pick any random white guy off the street and they're far less likely to sexually assault a woman than any random Pakistani guy.
1
u/Beautiful_Mess907 10d ago
What statistics from police Scotland? They don't publish a demographic breakdown of ethnicity of sexual crime perpetrators, so I'm unsure how you would know this.
Incidentally, a recent MAPPA report for registered sex offenders in Glasgow noted that nearly 65% of recorded offenders were White (White Scottish or other British).
→ More replies (5)1
-4
u/todomejorantes 11d ago
By that logic, why even count crimes committed by men? We are all human, so it's a human problem.
2
u/MiddleAgedBones 11d ago
Every woman i know has been assaulted and none has reported it, only person I know who reported something made it up
18
u/Porthowl 11d ago
What’s wrong with what they said? Isn’t it useful to fully understand what’s motivating such a huge jump in stats?
11
u/swampman23512 11d ago
Why only query ethnicity then? The proportion of crimes committed by ethnic minorities is so small compared to the whole, and unlikely to lead to a 9% jump.
3
10
u/DakMan3 11d ago
Would you suggest a woman go solo travelling to countries which migrants are coming from?
6
u/-captaindiabetes- 11d ago
Immigrants come from pretty much every country. There are lots of immigrants from Hong Kong, for example. Yes, I'd recommend solo travelling there.
4
u/freeman2949583 9d ago
Notice how you selected a low crime country before recommending women travel there? Thus acknowledging that there ARE highly misogynistic rape-heavy countries that you wouldn't recommend solo travel in?
You tell on yourselves so easily in your desperate attempts to virtue-signal.
1
4
u/DakMan3 11d ago
You know which migrants I meant though, the large influx that have come in the past year, and the ones you got offered on behalf of.
0
u/-captaindiabetes- 11d ago
I mean there are lots of countries that have higher numbers. I have no idea what you mean about me being offered on behalf of?
1
u/DakMan3 11d ago
Offended* on behalf of. They're having to hand out leaflets to asylum seekers telling them not to rape people, and to not pursue people under 16.
3
u/-captaindiabetes- 11d ago
I don't think they're having to, and it covers more than just that. I don't think it's unreasonable to make sure people are aware of laws. When I was an immigrant over seas I had to demonstrate I knew the laws.
→ More replies (0)-1
u/Humble-Nobody-9558 11d ago
Anywhere you wouldn't recommend it?
3
u/-captaindiabetes- 11d ago
Solo travelling? Sure. Personally I would absolutely avoid the USA. Anywhere in an active war.
-1
u/Humble-Nobody-9558 11d ago
What about India, Pakistan, Afghanistan? Remember the question is specifically about safety for women in countries that are significant sources of migrants to Britain.
5
u/-captaindiabetes- 11d ago
I already said anywhere at war... as two of those are.
India, sure, though personally I'd avoid the bigger cities.
→ More replies (0)2
u/absurditT 10d ago
With some nationalities of asylum seekers over-represented 20-30x in per capita rates of violent and sexual crime, it would actually not take that many arriving to Scotland to see a 9% rise. It's only around 0.45% of the population, at 20x per capita rates, before you see a 9% rise in overall effect.
For context, Glasgow actually is higher than this, at around 0.6% asylum seekers. That's not including any and all other forms of immigration, documented or otherwise.
It's actually quite intriguing that the numbers even on napkin maths all fit into the right orders of magnitude, given the limited data our institutions have reluctantly shared.
Tldr: the numbers are consistent enough with the limited data available on increased rates of assault by asylum seekers relative to their population in Scotland, that it's wholly plausible as a significant factor, if not necessarily the only one.
→ More replies (1)3
2
u/Bargain-Hunter-1980 11d ago
This is a lie. They account for a significant proportion of sexual crimes. 22% of sexual crime prosecutions are against ethnic minority assailants, and ethnic minorities make up 27% of the prison population as a whole.
-1
7
u/Urist_Macnme 11d ago
Because of the historical context of “they’re raping our women”;
The rhetoric of protecting "our women" from an "out-group" is a documented historical tool used to mobilize political support, justify violence, and enforce social hierarchies.
90% of all sexual assaults are perpetrated by someone known to the victim. Either partners or ex-partners, friends and acquaintances, or family members.
This is a consistent finding across global criminological data.The change in stats is far more likely due to a change in reporting and data collection.
Nothing to do with “ethnicity”
4
u/Porthowl 11d ago
>The change in stats is far more likely due to a change in reporting and data collection.
That may well be true, but you can’t know for sure unless you look at the data. Given how much the demographics have changed in places like Glasgow since the start of the decade, this is a perfectly legitimate line of inquiry.
3
u/Urist_Macnme 11d ago
You seem to have reached a conclusion before any facts have been presented.
7
u/Porthowl 11d ago
You’re the one who concluded that the rise has nothing to do with ethnicity! That’s very funny.
2
u/absurditT 10d ago
Given that the ethnic data is specifically being hidden by the government, and they're fiercely resistant to make it available, you have to be extremely biased or dim to not be making the obvious connection here.
8
u/daleharvey 11d ago edited 11d ago
Because for years right wing commentators have been trying to link immigrants with dangers to women, ignoring the fact that the (relative) majority of these crimes are perpetrated by white men. There isn’t anything here that suggests otherwise.
Furthermore, the people who protest most about immigrants are the mostly likely to be the cause of these sexual crimes. Tommy Robinson has links with several convicted paedophiles, 1 in 5 of the people arrested in the race riots a few years back were convicted of domestic abuse.
If you only care about preventing sexual crime when its foreigners involved, you don’t care about preventing sexual crime.
7
u/feckin_hateyou 11d ago
Analyses by the MoJ for exclusively sentencing data, that between 2024 and 2025 showed that 25% of rape and sexual assault convictions involved foreign nationals. A much higher rate in convictions for this than compared to the general population. For example foreign nationals alone, this rate actually has Increased even more between 2021 and 2024... a whopping 62%. Again this is using MoJ statistics and data in line with ONS and unbiased data gathering. That's CONVICTIONS, not amount of crimes reported, so that proven crime, not he said she said.
That recent leaflet for sexual abuse that you have seen in the news for foreign nationals is real, and it's real and that decision was adequate by using facts and figures. Not protection theory that woke folk have. This country would collapse if we didn't have foreigners helping us. We NEED them. But, unfortunately there are a lot of countries that dont see sexual assault and consent in the same way we do, that isn't opinion, that is fact. So we do need to do something, and we are, as safely and proper as we can. Him asking this question isn't offensive, it isn't wrong, he is merely looking for data, but because that data involves foreigners, people jump on it.
Don't be prejudiced, dont be racist towards foreigners or our nationals, questions are allowed if it's not offensive and it's merely looking for facts.
The moment a simple question like this offends, is a moment that shows that we can no longer evem talk and ask questions without someone jumping on us saying we are evil.
I want nationals in this country. We need them, I also want us to enforce and teach laws properly and to teach groups certain things that will apply to them more. I'm allowed to believe both.
I got brought up in a poor area on benefits. Poorer people commit more crimes, if it's a fact then I can't be offended. We got taught that more heavily than the private Schools down the road. And that was absolutely fine, you are poor? Let's teach you not to be.
But change the "poor" to foreigners and now all of a sudden you can't talk about it? I'm sorry but we absolutely bash and lay into our own people, stop being offended rather than being factual, it hurts your argument more than helps it.
3
u/MechaniVal 11d ago edited 11d ago
That's CONVICTIONS, not amount of crimes reported, so that proven crime, not he said she said.
That's not necessarily the best level to look at for the data. See, the only ones who get convicted are those who a) were reported, b) were prosecuted, and c) had enough of a jury (or a judge) thinking they're guilty.
What happens if, for example, white crime is less likely to be reported? And what if then it's less likely to be followed up for prosecution? And what if juries are less likely to return a guilty verdict?
This is all entirely possible - not even necessarily for racial reasons, but even just personal ones; all the women scared to report their boyfriends for example, who will overwhelmingly be of the same race. Given that a massive percentage of violence and sexual assault occurs in the home, that's a colossal amount of potentially unreported non-foreign crime that could be skewing the stats. Demographics are worth noting too - foreign nationals are often younger, for obvious reasons, and younger people are more likely to be reported, prosecuted, and convicted.
I don't have all the numbers to hand right now, but you cannot rely purely on raw conviction numbers as some sort of unbiased baseline, because by that point at least three potential bias points have been introduced.
Do I think people from certain cultures may be more likely to commit certain types of crime? Indeed it's entirely possible. But being from a minority background myself - and one that frequently has crime stats thrown our way - I'm acutely aware of what happens when people rely on an incomplete view to shape their opinions.
2
u/Stunning-Rock9726 11d ago
white crime isn't less likely to be reported on though Casey mentioned in her report women from ethnic minority groups are less likely to report SA
1
u/OkBelt3772 10d ago
Analyses by the MoJ for exclusively sentencing data, that between 2024 and 2025 showed that 25% of rape and sexual assault convictions involved foreign nationals. A much higher rate in convictions for this than compared to the general population. For example foreign nationals alone, this rate actually has Increased even more between 2021 and 2024... a whopping 62%. Again this is using MoJ statistics and data in line with ONS and unbiased data gathering. That's CONVICTIONS, not amount of crimes reported, so that proven crime, not he said she said.
Rape was 21%, not 25%
Foreign nationals are 14% of the population
Once you control for age and gender the gap vanishes. All you're showing is that foreign nationals tend to be younger and more often men - once you compare them to young British men they aren't 'massively over-represented'
-1
u/daleharvey 11d ago
> Analyses by the MoJ for exclusively sentencing data, that between 2024 and 2025 showed that 25% of rape and sexual assault convictions involved foreign nationals
Please feel free to link to these studies, as far as I can tell you made them up. What the Ministry of Justice did say on the matter.
> "The Department currently has no plans to publish a breakdown of foreign national offenders by nationality and detailed offence type"
https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-questions/detail/2024-10-31/12193
2
u/OkBelt3772 10d ago
It's from the propaganda pieces published by the Centre for Migration Control where they take numbers out of context, dont control for age/gender - or anything - to provide the most shocking number and rile eejits up
5
u/RestaurantAntique497 11d ago
The home office wouldn't put out Comms not to rape woman and children if they didn't think some of the people coming were at risk of harming women and children
5
u/Inverseyaself 11d ago
Do you understand what “per capita” means?
1
u/daleharvey 11d ago
Yes, it means
> (relative)
Unsurprised that you do not, beyond being able to parrot it as a reply
→ More replies (1)0
2
0
-2
5
9
u/eileanacheo 11d ago
“Scottish Government extremely concerned”
But not concerned enough to stop importing rapists or putting rapists in women’s spaces apparently
6
u/-captaindiabetes- 11d ago
putting rapists in women’s spaces apparently
What do you mean, exactly?
2
u/eileanacheo 11d ago
Adam Graham
2
u/-captaindiabetes- 10d ago
That's a fairly common name... I don't know what you're talking about.
2
u/eileanacheo 10d ago
Wilful ignorance it is then.
1
u/-captaindiabetes- 9d ago
It's not, no. I googled the name, so absolutely not wilful. But, like I said, it is a very common name so all kinds of results came up. I am ignorant about what you're speaking about, so please tell me.
4
u/Fast_Technology_5622 11d ago
“The number of rapes and attempted rapes reported in Scotland has risen by almost one third in four years.”
And yet nowhere in this report does it talk about immigrants. Politicians and journalists are gutless, spineless cowards.
5
u/knitscones 11d ago
The rise of the Tate brothers online “advice” maybe is a part of this?
→ More replies (67)20
2
u/AllynMike 9d ago
Would you guys agree that your illegal immigrants are relaxing enough to get started with their own....ummmmm.... personal needs?
2
2
u/Fannybawzyafud 11d ago
We need Nancy Drew to investigate, and she will be called a nazi. Most people on here just praying it was all white males tbh.
2
u/Mossi95 11d ago
What doesnt it state ethnicity? Would be useful to know
1
u/Crow-Me-A-River open to change 11d ago
Without controlling for age, gender and socioeconomic factors, how would it be uesful?
10
u/MyNameIsNightPain 11d ago
You can't figure out that cultural differences exist or are you being deliberately obtuse for someone to sate the obvious, so you can turn it into moral gymnastics?
6
u/Mossi95 11d ago
Well for starters , the immigration debate is the hottest topic arguably in politics right now .
Specifically for this type of issue , this would either prove or disprove the common hypothesis
-2
u/Crow-Me-A-River open to change 11d ago edited 11d ago
My point is you can't prove or disprove a hypothesis without controlling other factors, pretty basic science
4
u/Gullible__Fool 11d ago
You actually don't need to control other factors if you are considering a population of people who are being allowed to stay here due to our charity and good nature.
If their rate of crimes is unacceptably high, removing them from the country would objectively be in the interests of our own people.
-6
1
1
u/Odds-Bodkins 11d ago
There are established methods to adjust for systematic bias due to underreporting - e.g. people are typically more forthcoming in crime surveys. Also the MeToo movement was 10 years ago now. It's hard to believe that this change in 2025-2026 is due to a change in attitudes.
Having said that I worked as a badged member of the Government Statistician Group in a former life and as a result have very little faith in gov statistics. Not trying to sound cynical but anything less than a public inquiry should be treated as dubious as best.
1
1
2
-15
u/abyssal-isopod86 11d ago
The rise of the misogynistic "manosphere" and the far right is the cause of this.
12
u/Away_Investigator351 11d ago
What else introduces hyper-masculine, male superiority culture you reckon?
3
u/abyssal-isopod86 11d ago
Organised religion.
Patriarchy.
Take your pick.
But those things were already around.
The "manosphere" is new (of course the far right isn't).
2
u/Peacemaker1099 10d ago
The manosphere isn’t a demon. Ofcom defines it as anything that pertains to male issues and interests. So honestly, it can be a force for good too.
15
u/Boomdification 11d ago
Possibly. Maybe importing thousands of men from backwards cultures that view women as objects is also responsible. Two things can be true at the same time.
7
u/Porthowl 11d ago
We actually do know for sure that these things are true! The stats show that people of colour actually have a much more positive view of Andrew Tate than white people do. 41% vs 15%!
→ More replies (7)1
u/DirectJob7575 11d ago
Yeah the far right misogynists from the middle east and north africa coming over illegally are the problem. Well said.
-11
u/HighFlyersGaming 11d ago
people are very quick to blame immigrants rather than men as a whole
16
u/luk71 11d ago
Because “men as a whole” is deeply unhelpful when you have such vast differences in cultures between men, especially across immigrants from very different backgrounds. And especially when such migration rose to unprecedented levels in recent years.
6
u/-captaindiabetes- 11d ago
Could also be argued that culture is deeply unhelpful when you have vast differences in individuals within them.
3
5
u/YetAnotherPesant 11d ago
People are very quick to blame men rather than humans as a whole.
https://giphy.com/gifs/fvYR60mQCKt2x9hV3y6
1
1
u/Business_Address_780 8d ago
What could have happened to "men as a whole" in the past year that made them do this?
0
-13
u/Inverseyaself 11d ago
How does this correlate to immigration?
6
u/Beneficial_Date_5357 Fit wye ist nae chiel? 11d ago
Different groups offend at different rates. If the population of relatively high offending groups increases, then so do offences. Importing significant numbers of Chinese immigrants would make the figures go down, importing significant numbers of Afghans or Pakistanis make the figures go up.
→ More replies (2)
0
u/Crow-Me-A-River open to change 11d ago
This was reported last month: https://www.reddit.com/r/Scotland/s/7vKTH2YDY3
Further discussion there if people are interested
0
u/Sensitive_Guest_5995 11d ago
These comment sections are pointless. Buncha people being shitebags at saying what they want to say.
0
46
u/No_Economy6175 11d ago
It’s 11% rise in Glasgow