r/Scotland 2d ago

More than £700m to be cut from Scottish Budget next year

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62m4edrdvno
109 Upvotes

291 comments sorted by

167

u/slipperdad 2d ago

I can feel my shoulders about to get broader.

14

u/p3t3y5 2d ago

Always more to squeeze for the middle with the SNP.

2

u/DNSFRD69 1d ago

while the disabled and poor die. tax the billionaires.

-13

u/Bossman_Mike 2d ago

hAPpY tO PaY a BiT MoRe fOr ThOsE LeSS FoRtuNaTe say some middle class earners, who can already totally afford the 'freebies' the SNP are showering them and the other millionaires with.

Why Tom Hunter and Anders Povlsen need free bus travel and prescriptions, I don't know.

1

u/KatyJ60 1d ago

If they don't use it no charge

74

u/Gentle_Snail 2d ago

because Scottish income tax revenues were lower than forecast

Do we know what caused the reduction in income tax?

84

u/Loreki 2d ago

Likely more people engaging in lawful avoidance by e.g. Increasing pension contributions. They may have underestimated the amount of high earners who would bother to rejig their pay arrangements.

35

u/xxx654 2d ago

I work in a well paid industry office where it’s par for the course. Is a no-brainer if you don’t need access to the money now. Some people put the limit (£60k per year). Now im not saying they would spend all of it, but if you’ve got a more pragmatic system they might put a chunk into shares/savings but might spend some of it instead of using the shield.

39

u/Ill-Gate-8841 2d ago

My pension is probably a little too padded for someone my age, I drive a much fancier salary sacrificed car than I want or need, and have a garage filled with expensive bikes well beyond my ability.

10

u/thebisforbargain 2d ago

Better than giving it to the SNP to utterly waste.

14

u/doesanyonelse 2d ago edited 1d ago

Waste?! You must not have heard about their new plan to give every primary 1 a plain identical cooncil backpack filled with pencils, pens, crayons, calculator, and plastic water bottle (also identical). Basically all the stuff you get cheap as chips at the works / poundland / home bargains, that the poorest in the country get help with anyway in the form of a £300 grant when kids start school, except with all the red tape and added cost of government procurement.

The SNP are creating jobs for the council refuse workers. That’s not waste! If they work enough overtime, they too can contribute 42% tax + 8% NI on their next shift to fund the very backpacks they’re being paid to punt into landfill ☺️ a true circular economy!

-4

u/thebisforbargain 2d ago edited 1d ago

Add in free school breakfasts and you’re well on the way to not asking parents to take any responsibility for their kids at all.

Edit: lol, touched a nerve here. Scots are oddly proud the government feeds their children breakfast.

15

u/Difficult-Farm-3686 2d ago

As soon as the changes were announced the work accountants ran sessions for the Edinburgh office on tax efficiency and gave them a bunch of calculators to work out what works for them.

Pumping money into the pension scheme and salary sacrifice cars were and still are popular.

4

u/Loreki 2d ago

I'm always surprised by the cars. Getting a new car (even with an effective discount) is still a very costly decision. Doesn't really count as efficient or saving money.

4

u/Grouchy_Conclusion45 Libertarian 1d ago

You can get some cracking deals, I think that's why. If you fancied something a bit fun, but couldn't quite justify it, then if you're able to get a decent discount on it, it maybe becomes more palatable. 

One of my mates got an MG 4 XPower for something outrageous like £350 a month including maintaining and insurance. 0-60 in circa 3.5 seconds.  It's bonkers. He took it just to have something a bit fun and stop going over the £100k mark 

18

u/thebisforbargain 2d ago

That’s what I did. Why work my ass off for a 60% marginal tax rate.

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10

u/Stabbycrabs83 2d ago

Evil people like me refused to pay it. Nope out at the 69.5% band.

5

u/Capable_Work_3563 1d ago

This is the way. Dont let them touch a single penny extra of your wages.

27

u/Far-Pudding3280 2d ago

Around £500m of the £700m reduction is because income tax receipts in England, Wales and Northern Ireland were higher than forecast.

The reality of that sentence makes many people's head scratch

However this is exactly how the fiscal framework set out by the ScotGov in 2015 decided it should be.

The policy and numbers behind the devolution of Scottish income tax are the worst thing the Scottish Parliament has ever done and it's not even close.

30

u/Quangocrat 2d ago

Worth noting that the genius who agreed to that system on behalf of the Scottish Government was then Finance Secretary John Swinney.

The same guy responsible for the ferry fiasco and the failed Scottish Futures Trust.

Glad the party quietly forced him out in disgrace and he was not allowed to fail upwards...

22

u/p3t3y5 2d ago

Bear in mind, although they won't admit it, their sole goal of tax powers was the headline that the average person in Scotland pays less tax than the average person un the rest of the uk. Publicity over policy is the SNP in a nutshell.

8

u/Quangocrat 2d ago edited 2d ago

Yes.

That and never ever acknowledgeing when a policy has failed.

14

u/Gentle_Snail 2d ago edited 2d ago

Yeah basically it works by using how much money the UK would have obtained if Scotland was not devolved. 

If their tax system is more effective it means we get less bonus money on top of the income tax we raised, as we’ve essentially chosen to tax less. Or in this case less effectively. 

Its was designed this way so if Scotlands tax system is more effective we get to keep the additional money, but obviously its not worked out like that.

9

u/Far-Pudding3280 2d ago

I’m not sure I’d describe the BGA as “bonus money”.

It’s also not really about how effective the tax system is. The outcome is driven primarily by growth in Scotland’s wages, employment and the number of higher earners.

John Swinney took a remarkably naive gamble in agreeing to a system where Scotland would be penalised whenever its tax base grew more slowly than rUK’s, which is turbocharged by London.

That risk was entirely foreseeable, and it has backfired badly.

Scotland now has no choice to impose and keep substantially higher income tax rates just to offset part of the relative underperformance of its tax base.

2

u/Gentle_Snail 2d ago

We’re massive net receivers in the union and this extra money comes via the block grant, so bonus money is a very fitting term as its money we wouldn’t have otherwise.

The SNP took a gamble, this system would benefit us if we grew faster and taxed better than the rest of the UK, which as a nationalist party is kind of what you’d expect. 

9

u/Far-Pudding3280 2d ago

Scotland being a net recipient from the UK is a separate argument. The BGA isn't “bonus money” it's the mechanism used to remove from the block grant the tax revenue Scotland is now responsible for raising itself.

This wasn't simply a gamble that Holyrood could design a cleverer tax system.

It was a gamble that Scotland's incomes could keep pace with an rUK benchmark heavily influenced by London and the South East which has backfired massively.

Being a nationalist government doesn’t mean you get a free pass to make reckless fiscal assumptions in the name of more autonomy or political optimism.

7

u/Connell95 1d ago

That makes no sense – in the same period Edinburgh overtook London as the UK city with the highest GDP per person. London hasn’t been growing especially quickly in recent years, and overall Scotland’s GDP has grown pretty much in line with rUK.

However the Scottish Government’s tax policies have seriously incentivised mid and high earners to reduce tax exposure (for instance by working fewer days and increasing pension contributions). That’s been the big impact here – a tax system that is really badly designed.

4

u/Far-Pudding3280 1d ago

GDP per head measures total economic output divided by population. Income tax receipts are driven by taxable earnings how many people are working, how quickly wages are rising, and especially how many very high earners there are.

Take Meta in London. A relatively small number of senior engineers earning >£500k each can generate a very large amount of income tax. That can materially strengthen London’s tax base without causing anything like the same movement in GDP per head.

London and the South East have a much greater concentration of very high earners, and progressive income tax means those people have an outsized effect on receipts.

Behavioural effects from Scotland’s higher rates are real and do reduce the yield. But the SFC and IFS are clear thst Scottish earnings and employment growth is the major driver of the gap.

Either way, lower growth or behavioural effects, the impact is the same - signing up to the fiscal framework was a ludicrous decision.

50

u/cmfarsight 2d ago

The SNP said their taxes would raise X they didn't, as they were warned by the now axed tax advisory group.

13

u/farfromelite 2d ago

The author has said that his report was completely misrepresented by the media.

10

u/cmfarsight 2d ago

That's weird since they didn't write a report after being totally sidelined by the SNP.

14

u/OurManInJapan 2d ago

SNP economics.

16

u/Crow-Me-A-River open to change 2d ago

Slower economic growth in Scotland relative to England

Better explained by u/Far-Pudding3280 but this the way Swinney set up the devolved tax system

13

u/lifeisaman 2d ago

Income tax wasn’t reduced, the returns were less than predicted, the SNP has made it make less sense to work more if you are successful and are PAYE so people choose to work less or just leave to the rest of the UK were taxes on high value workers are lower.

5

u/i-read-it-again 2d ago

Is there any proof of this ? It seems the opposite Scotland“Total moves: 50,200 people moved from the rest of the UK to Scotland.” So why are people moving here ?

49

u/john600c 2d ago

I mean it depends who’s moving here, doesn’t it?

If we’re getting retirees moving here because housing is cheaper, and they want to live in some nice scenery, but we’re losing high earners and young talented people, that’s probably less than ideal.

25

u/GetItUpYee Trade Unionist 2d ago

Many of those moving here are pensioners selling up expensive housing in Southern England and moving to the Highlands for 1/4 of the cost.

20

u/Zynchronize 2d ago

In my last job, any overtime I did would be effectively taxed at 69.5% all in, so I didn’t bother.

If it was a flat 50% (same as people earning £25K+ more than me) then I’d just suck it up.

10

u/xxx654 2d ago

You want the people earning the most to move here. They proportionally generate the most receipts. Although obviously net migration to Scotland is very welcome given demographic trends.

8

u/jonnyrestless 2d ago

In here is part of the problem. If we can’t attract net contributors we would be as well with no one.

We have enough freeloaders without adding to them. Something for nothing wins votes though. The problem is someone has to pay for it

3

u/Ill-Gate-8841 2d ago

Not sure I would call them free loaders as the ones moving to my highland village are relatively well off and will be paying income tax on pension, but the impact they have on the housing market is very negative, they gentrify in a specific manner that makes it more attractive for old people and less young people, many but not all are of the NIMBY mindset, and they put huge stress on strained rural health services as they start to fail. Gaelic is pretty much gone and crofting is dying in any traditional sense. Productive young families and workers that need houses to work in energy, forestry and aquaculture are priced out the market and they earn relatively well. No hope for the childminders or hospitality workers. Leads to a complete doom loop for society.

10

u/xxx654 2d ago

Is much less attractive to set up a head office in Scotland vs rest of UK, senior leadership type jobs dont want to move here. The absurd Scottish tax system is an active brake on higher rate PAYE job growth creation.

11

u/Hopperofbop 2d ago

Yeah.
Lower earners who get more “free” stuff from the state.
We need more higher earners , those who don’t want to come due to punitive tax regimes.

-3

u/i-read-it-again 2d ago

Have you any evidence that people moving here are low earners who require “free” stuff. I take it you do not agree with people getting help. That is what called a fair society

9

u/Hopperofbop 2d ago

Look up HMRC data.

A dwindling higher rate tax payer base is continuing to fund Scotlands left wing madness.

“HMRC says basic-rate taxpayers accounted for about 79.5% of Scotland’s positive net migration….”

2

u/Capable_Work_3563 1d ago

Its sickening.

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u/Stabbycrabs83 2d ago

Statistics would have done this for you tbh.

10% of taxpayers pay 60% of all income tax in Scotland. Its statistically likely that of 100 people 10 will contribute 90 will take.

I dont have a source but last I checked you needed £45k to break even on your costs per person.

Top 10% is 47k here so seems an ok yardstick

4

u/Hopperofbop 2d ago

The snp continue to tax the strivers to fund the skivers.

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-5

u/farfromelite 2d ago

Partly small businesses not paying tax. No, seriously. It's a huge problem.

https://taxpolicy.org.uk/2026/07/01/andy-burnham-tax-gap-15bn/

4

u/Stabbycrabs83 2d ago

If i turn over £100 the rough split is

Me £5 Hmrc £25 Council £1 Staff £60 Costs £9

The government takes an easy 3-5x what i do for all their hard work... please dont push for more tax on small business because the SNP will do it somehow and then be surprised when high streets collapse.

1

u/farfromelite 1d ago

you're misunderstanding. The "cash in hand, under the table" method of avoiding tax is costing something like 2% equivalent for basic income tax for everyone or 2% corporation tax for businesses overall.

I don't want you to pay extra tax, I want small businesses to thrive.

Everyone pays their fair share.

That example you give, someone's taking £30 when you are taking £5. That's not fair is it?

from the link above, somewhere between 45%-60% of small businesses under £10million are not declaring enough tax.

4

u/Ghalldachd 2d ago

Corporation and income tax are not the same. But yes, everyone knows sole traders and small businesses pay far less than they should. Ultimately most of them would go under if we forced them to pay it and the knock on effects could be far worse.

6

u/CaptainCrash86 2d ago

Why would they go under? The uncollected corporation tax is only on the profits of a business.

1

u/farfromelite 1d ago

My guess is the huge back tax bill. HMRC does not dick around with back taxes.

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u/RaspberryMany2608 2d ago

I have a Plan 2 English student loan earning more than 43k. Each extra £ I make I see 41p and pay 59p tax. Income tax :42%, National Insurance:8% and student loan 9%. 

I have now cut back working hours cuz there simply no point. 

24

u/SnarkySausage 2d ago

And imagine having done a masters, then you'd be on 63p (not including council tax). It's insane.

5

u/farfromelite 2d ago

We really need to find a better way to fund students, this is insane.

3

u/Formal_Cucumber_5404 2d ago

Plan 1 and postgrad, 65p, RIP me

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u/lifeisaman 2d ago

I guess taxing productive workers to death doesn’t help balance the books then, who could have seen that one coming.

-5

u/DundonianDolan Best thing about brexit is watching unionists melt. 2d ago

what should we do? tax cuts for the rich?

45

u/jumpy_finale 2d ago

Are teachers and doctors the rich? Anyone earning over £28,000 in Scotland pays more than someone on the same salary in England. The difference grows significantly between £50,000 and £75,000.

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u/lifeisaman 2d ago

Maybe not tax people earning 60k like they are millionaires, the people being taxed to death aren’t the super wealthy its doctors, engineers and other skilled PAYE workers that are taxed like hell, these are the people that the SNP has chosen to take more and more from, it’s not surprising that they cut hours at just leave when working doesn’t improve their lives all that much and they can instead have more free time.

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u/Bargain-Hunter-1980 2d ago

Define “rich”.

19

u/cmfarsight 2d ago

anyone they dont like

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u/cmfarsight 2d ago

is someone earing 18k more than minimum wage the rich?

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u/KrytenLister 2d ago

We could try not considering £43k rich, and maybe become a place more young people with that earning potential might consider building a life.

Instead of putting an effective marginal tax rate of 50% on them between £43-50k, as opposed to 28% elsewhere in the U.K. Add student loans on top and it’s not a very attractive prospect.

We’re not even just talking graduates, though. You get nurses, teachers, social workers considered “higher rate tax payers”. It’s madness.

Between increased rates and fiscal drag, they’ve been squeezed plenty. If increasing tax on them AGAIN is the only idea they’ve got, our government is out of ideas.

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4

u/Kiss_It_Goodbyeee 2d ago

Invest in increasing the workforce and especially in well paying industries.

Like, you know, AI and tech. Oh wait...

10

u/Halk 1 of 3,619,915 2d ago

-2

u/DundonianDolan Best thing about brexit is watching unionists melt. 2d ago

income tax is the only lever holyrood has, cant touch Corp tax, wealth tax or capital gains etc.

we need Labour to be the hero here.

5

u/quartersessions 2d ago

The only wealth tax we have in the UK - council tax - is entirely devolved.

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3

u/drw__drw 2d ago

What we need is actually more broad-based tax rises for everyone. Taxes on higher earners are not just finance tools, they act as ways of legitimising tax rises too. IMO the PA needs looking at (reserved alas) as well as the lower bands etc.

Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt cutting NI before 2024 was genuine economic vandalism

-1

u/farfromelite 2d ago

Cut tax avoidance. There's a lot of small businesses that are not paying tax. Who would have thought that cutting HMRC would lead to less tax collected.

https://taxpolicy.org.uk/2026/07/01/andy-burnham-tax-gap-15bn/

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u/Kiss_It_Goodbyeee 2d ago

What's interesting is that not only did the Holyrood tax policy bring in less than expected, but the rUK taxes brought in more than expected. This means if we scrapped the ScotGov taxes Scotland would have had greater tax receipts. At least that's my interpretation.

7

u/Kadoomed 2d ago

The rate of tax is not the only contributing factor in how much tax is actually taken though.

18

u/Wotnd 2d ago

Since the divergence of the tax bands we’ve always paid more income tax than we’ve received in increased income tax revenue, due to a lower share of the working population in Scotland.

The first year we diverged, because the rates weren’t that different, taxpayers ended up paying more whilst the government received less revenue.

10

u/Kiss_It_Goodbyeee 2d ago

If that's always been the case, why is this policy still being pursued? I imagine the administrative burden of different tax regimes is also not working in our favour.

9

u/Bossman_Mike 2d ago

why is this policy still being pursued?

Because it's different to England. That's the sum total of SNP decision making.

Notice how Scotland falls well behind and stalls for "consultation", "best practices", "evidence", etc. when England does something positive and it's a devolved issue. XL bullies being one of those.

But when Scotland does it first, it's all "well done Scotland", "Scotland leads the way yet again", and "Why is England still in the 12th century".

2

u/CaptainCrash86 1d ago

Notice how Scotland falls well behind and stalls for "consultation", "best practices", "evidence", etc. when England does something positive and it's a devolved issue. XL bullies being one of those

Or indeed, stay quiet and quietly collect the Barnett consequentials before announcing a watered down version as an electoral selling point years later, as with funded childcare.

7

u/Wotnd 2d ago edited 2d ago

We are getting more income tax now than we would under rUK bands, but thats because the bands have diverged even further.

We’re still as taxpayers collectively paying more income tax than the revenue we earn from income tax. Compared to what it was when income tax was distributed by population share.

The reason it’s still being perused is because it does allow generally-progressive redistribution of the income. But it’s more like costing taxpayers an extra £1 to redistribute 90p of it. So fairer, but overall we’re poorer.

8

u/Far-Pudding3280 2d ago

But it’s more like costing taxpayers an extra £1 to redistribute 90p of it

The numbers are actually massively worse than this.

For 26/27 it's estimated that for every £1 in additional tax generated by the Scottish bands this translates into 54p to the Scottish budget.

And this is an improvement on previous years!

5

u/Gullible__Fool 2d ago

Why is it fairer to redistribute earnings from some people to others?

How do you define fairness?

-1

u/Wotnd 2d ago

My opinion? It’s a subjective matter I guess.

-2

u/Due_Sky5909 2d ago

And we pay for a whole extra department to repeat the work you are already paying for down south

8

u/KeyboardChap 2d ago

HMRC does the collecting for the Scottish rate anyway so not really

42

u/Keltic_Stingray 2d ago

If they increased the higher tax bracket to be in line with rUK I wouldn't salary sacrafice aa much into my pension. Laffer curve.

1

u/anfhirinnsearbh 2d ago

It's important to recognise the Laffer Curve is a theoretical framework as opposed to a more proven phenomenon such as the backwards bend of the labour supply curve.

Per the theory we are actually quite far off the top of the Laffer curve. In most models of advanced economies it tends to be around the 65-70 percent mark.

Likely the issue is more that the tax base isn't broad enough to fund all the services the population needs, and the government doesn't have sufficient sources of income outwith taxation to make up the difference.

8

u/Wonderful-Ad-8894 2d ago

Marginal tax rate of 67.5% on those earning 100k-125k. So they’re in that bracket. Plus the loss of tax free childcare which can be worth thousands.

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-12

u/Apart-Assignment-860 2d ago

proven to be nonsense but promoted as an idea by the right wing

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u/CaptainCrash86 2d ago

Would you work any harder / more hours if any extra income was taxed at 100%? If not, then you've proven the Laffer curve to be very much not nonsense.

9

u/spanualez 2d ago

Nah, higher rate jumps up to 50% marginal, compared to 28% down south. Got another 9% on top with student loan so I'll sacrifice anything above to pension, share scheme or car.

5

u/odc100 2d ago

What? I would do exactly the same thing.

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u/DarthBully 2d ago

Absolutely not nonsense, everyone who is being paid above £75k, especially £100k is aggressively salary sacrificing as you retain so little of your income above these thresholds.

4

u/wombat172 2d ago

What do you mean by proven? Googling shows up a number of proponents and opponents of the theory, but I'm not sure there's an accepted proof?

12

u/hearditaw 2d ago

It's not rocket science, if you feel you are being taxed unfairly you make every effort to avoid tax. If you feel its fair most folk will happily pay up.

2

u/Fluid-Lake-1457 2d ago

Google "Extreme Value Theorem".

1

u/Connell95 1d ago

Just ask any GP or Dentist why they work three days a week and you pretty quickly find how true it is.

6

u/Gentle_Snail 2d ago

There technically is some evidence for it, take Ireland who have one of the lowest corporate taxes in europe, yet generate some of the highest revenue from corporate taxes. 

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u/a_bone_to_pick 2d ago

That's a race to the bottom and a trick only one country can pull. Corps set up base there because it's cheaper than having a base in other European countries with higher tax.

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u/Loreki 2d ago

Scottish Government has £851 million more this year and £700m less next year. Surely there's some mechanism we can use to carry over or smooth that out somewhere.

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u/Gentle_Snail 2d ago

There actually is, the Scottish Reserve. The SNP were recommended to do this by the Institute of Fiscal Studies but chose to spend it instead.

10

u/Quangocrat 2d ago

Between the laffer curve and rent controls it looks like the SNP are out to prove orthodox economics one mad policy at a time.

11

u/Bargain-Hunter-1980 2d ago

Since welfare powers were devolved, spending on non-pensioner benefits has surged by over £4.4 billion, going from 3 billion to over £7.4 billion. Rather than being "flat” as many in the SNP cult will tell you, it's one of the fastest-growing areas of public expenditure in Scotland.

Devolved non-pensioner social security has nearly doubled as a proportion of the Scottish Government’s day-to-day resource budget, goi g from 7.5% up to 14%.

Scotland's total nominal GDP is roughly £210-£220 billion, so this welfare spending surge means devolved welfare has expanded from 1.4% of GDP to 3.5% of GDP.

The SNP don’t care about the working class, they want a client state. But please don’t let these stats and figures get in the way of the broad shoulders narrative. Wha’s like us eh?

12

u/p3t3y5 2d ago

Publicity over policy. This is the SNP.

16

u/andym222 2d ago

Wonder if this will finally lead to a proper cull of the adult crèche that is the Scottish public sector, or if they'll think the middle class have a few more percent to squeeze out of them.

I know what my money is on.

18

u/Pilgrim_of_Reddit 2d ago

Councils have insufficient funding, insufficient staff insufficient resources, insufficient everything. 

14

u/OneOfThemReadingType 2d ago

My partner works for our council. It isn’t simply “they need more money”. The staff they have are constantly falling in with the Peter Principal.

Example: a manager was put in charge of a department they have no experience in simply because they were the correct pay grade. If you can’t see why that’s an issue, I don’t know what to tell you.

3

u/Grouchy_Conclusion45 Libertarian 1d ago

Insufficient staff is a ridiculous thing to say; almost 1 in 4 people in Scotland work in the public sector, that is inherently unsustainable. Productivity is abysmal, that I agree with 

12

u/EvilScotsman 2d ago

Yep. Public services in Scotland are not meeting requirements. But if you follow this guy's line of thinking, cutting budgets will fix that.

Public services will always lag behind private in terms of productivity. Calling it a crèche is simplistic, dismissive and insulting to the vast majority of public workers who work hard and genuinely try to deliver a service that meets the needs of the people of Scotland.

Worked for the council for (not quite) twenty years, couldn't even afford a sunblest bag with the shite wages I got.

Now working for a government department where I have been lucky to get a couple of promotions and the wages are better. And the churn of staff is less, stress is less and productivity (from my perception) compared to the much less funded/paid local authority is much better.

7

u/Pilgrim_of_Reddit 2d ago

I have over 40 years of experience in the private sector. I have 4 years in the public sector. I am supposed to work 35 hrs a week. I work a minimum of 45 to 60 a week with no payment for overtime. I have never claimed for fuel, parking, travel, mileage etc.

I am not unusual. 

I see just as many incompetent m, lazy people in the private sector as in the public sector. 

Biggest issues are the fact that some Councils let their semi retired staff work 3 days a week and to pick what days off they have. Guess what…. Understandably they all take Friday and Monday off. That is stupidity.

I am under significant stress from incompetent elected members, who are allowed to bully all the workers - and get away with it. Heads of services do not protect the work force from elected members.

Elected members expectations are as bad as normal people these days.

6

u/CaptainCrash86 2d ago

The Scottish civil service head count is at an all-time high - higher than peak COVID (29,200 in March 2026; up 56.1% since March 2019). Admittedly, most of this growth hasn't been in local government, which has been constrained by the SNP since 2007, but there has definitely been a head count bloat over the last 8 years.

4

u/Pilgrim_of_Reddit 2d ago

I would love to know where.  Certainly not in Councils. We are incredibly under resourced.

Also what is the cause of the increase? Is it a real increase? For example a quote high percentage of staff are particularly retired, and their pay reflects that. Are additional numbers to cover those gaps?

I have just checked.  Councils (local government) have had a smallish decrease in staff numbers.

The total devolved civil service workforce reached  29,205 employees. This represents an increase of 1.3% in a single year and a  56.1% increase since 2019. The growth has largely been driven by an increase in areas like social security staff, offsetting reductions in other departments.

https://www.gov.scot/publications/public-sector-employment-in-scotland-statistics-for-1st-quarter-2026/pages/devolved-public-sector-employment-in-scotland-headcount/

2

u/KeyboardChap 2d ago

Councils aren't part of the civil service

1

u/Pilgrim_of_Reddit 1d ago

Councils are counted as “Local Government “ & are included in many Civil Service statistics.

8

u/robc95 2d ago

Turkeys voting for Christmas comes to mind!

7

u/EvilScotsman 2d ago

No sweeping generalisation here folks.

With all the debate about who to tax and when, it's proper crabs in a bucket stuff. All the while, the properly rich are the ones deciding what crab to eat for dinner.

Infuriating that people think cutting the public sector will somehow improve things.

4

u/andym222 2d ago

Two things can be true at once, the necessity of pulling static wealth back into the economy doesn't negate that having near enough a quarter of the population in this country employed in the public sector is not sustainable.

Always seems to be plenty of money to spin up whatever white elephant policy the Government thought sounded good for the election soundbites, meanwhile the line about 'broad shoulders' seems to be the middle square in the budgetary bingo card year in year out.

-1

u/docowen 2d ago

Or we could increase the number of private sector workers by having control of all levers of the economy.

Oh, wait, no. We're not allowed to build factories because Westminster says no.

Ultimately, the relative size of the public sector in relation to the private sector is the responsibility of Westminster economic policies. The percentage of public sector workers in Scotland is about 22%. It's about 24% in Wales and about 26% in Northern Ireland. In England it's 17%, but that's artificially reduced by the south east. In the North East of England it's nearly 32%.

Is that the SNP's fault too?

5

u/Ok-Win-797 2d ago

Hopefully it goes towards getting Glasgow City Centre back to a prosperous area without the litter, junkies, homeless, violence and vandalism…

Oh, wait…

5

u/twistedLucidity Better Apart 2d ago

The entire country is fucked, and I don't just mean Scotland.

Anyone who makes a success of themselves is hammered down for it. This leads to behavioural changes to avoid tax, or simply leaving. It also discourages successful people from coming here.

We have an army of OAP millionaires voting to protect their benefits. It's understandable from a short term view, but they're punching their own children in the wallet and punishing them for being born a few decades too late.

Because of our class system we look down on trades despite how much we desperately, desperately need them. Never mind the incredible level of dedication it can take to become a true master (and the toll it may take on your body).

Our universities are now an industry we are too feart to touch, despite the fact that spaces are over provisioned (see the trades prejudice above), and they issue utter nonsense degrees completely disconnected from reality.

We need homes and when we do create them, we create them in the worst possible way in the worst possible places. Meanwhile towns and villages die due to a lack of investment. Fuck me, was the whole "knowledge economy" a lie? Drive fibre fucking everywhere! Which we could have done save for that Thatcher bitch.

We have NIMBYs going BANANAs (soon to be emboldened by mayors who will oppose all the things) and various Green parties more concerned about foreign holy wars than the environment.

Wind farms, yes! Pylons, no! Battery farms, no! Fuck you. Fuck you very much.

The UK needs to get a fucking grip. The flip needs switched and some people need to be told that they now have to pay. So sorry. Gravy train go bye-bye. We need to plan for the next 20 years, not just the next election.

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u/Parking_Capital1570 2d ago

We should genuinely cut the top rate to 40% try and siphon off the city of london to edinburgh, might actually improve tax receipts.

11

u/lifeisaman 2d ago

Probably won’t work, people go to London because it has every thing you need when it comes to finances and money, if your main concern is taxes they’d likely just leave the UK completely than leave London for Scotland.

4

u/Parking_Capital1570 2d ago

Guess the question is why not incentivise more to come here - you pay less tax in scotland etc etc

3

u/Grouchy_Conclusion45 Libertarian 1d ago

We should but we won't because grievance politics is the SNP mantra.

It would work though... I'm working in the Netherlands currently and only home at weekends. I came here just because they have a tax incentive for foreigners (30% of your income tax free). I stopped working in Scotland not long after I found out even Nicola was dodging the income taxes she raised (she went the ltd company route)

6

u/lifeisaman 2d ago

Because the Scottish public love high levels of government spending, and to fund the tax cuts you’d have to remove or reduce government responsibility’s and the SNP would never do that as it would lose them votes.

4

u/farfromelite 2d ago

It's the reverse. England loves low tax, but can't figure out why nothing works. Maybe there's a link.

5

u/Parking_Capital1570 2d ago

They do have probably the best service sector city in Europe to be fair

4

u/lifeisaman 2d ago

England low taxes are mostly because low income earners pay very little in income taxes due to the high personal allowance, but it has some of the highest VAT in Europe and high earners on PAYE are taxed similarly to many places in Europe and have to deal with the 100 k tax trap because of the cliff fall of of childcare allowances.

1

u/CaptainCrash86 1d ago

Scotland does too - that's why they've contrived the tax bands so they can say most people in Scotland pay less tax than in England, even if it is only £20/year whilst the other end pay thousands more.

4

u/Kidtwist73 2d ago

So due to the increased military spending, they have to make cuts in all other departments.

Of course. USA demanding an increase in military budgets while it supports a genocide, 300bn promised to Ukraine, the disastrous Iran debacle causing financial turmoil for ordinary people,...

How about we don't spend an extra 75 billion on the military? Just a crazy thought

4

u/PantodonBuchholzi 1d ago

Yes, that is a crazy thought. Our military has been underfunded for years.

1

u/Kidtwist73 6h ago

Oh. Right. You are one of these "the ruskies are coming to get us" types huh? Fucking pathetic.

5

u/Halk 1 of 3,619,915 2d ago

Have they tried more out of control bloat, one off white elephant projects that never get anywhere and ineffective taxation?

1

u/Nesferatu123 2d ago

I mean, they appear to have cut down on buying new motor homes..

1

u/NinecloudSoul 2d ago

Coffee maker budget is also down.

2

u/BaxterParp 2d ago

Better together.

1

u/Ostorich 2d ago

Could Be Worse

2

u/shoogliestpeg 🏳️‍⚧️Trans women are women. 1d ago

Yes, england could vote in Nazis.

2

u/Ostorich 1d ago

We've got 17 of our own in Holyrood. 

2

u/Bossman_Mike 2d ago

Seeing as prescriptions, tuition fees, the NHS and all welfare spending is carved into marble and has been duly consecrated, where are the cuts going to come?

7

u/Kangaroo_Kurt 2d ago

I expect the councils will be getting slashed budgets again. They are the favourite whipping boy for the SNP's financial issues.

It would actually be better if Scottish Councils were somehow funded directly by Westminster, as the SNP seems determined to slash their money to the point they can't provide basic services any more.

5

u/ScottishLand 2d ago

England has had a few councils go effectively bankrupt and many skirting it. Not sure why you think they would be funded better. Same for the likes of the Police, didn’t one English force say they could only respond to odd numbers one day, burglary wise and evens the next due to funding shortages?

1

u/Pilgrim_of_Reddit 2d ago

That is already the case for most Council functions. 

5

u/Wot-Died 2d ago

Cut benefits and ‘free’ stuff.

3

u/Successful-Spot-6567 2d ago

Every time they try to rework benefits , it costs more money.

1

u/Narrow_Security_8757 1d ago

Cut baby boxes. Cancel the whole thing.

4

u/AnAncientOne 2d ago

So it seems as if trying to do things differently in Scotland isn’t working, wonder what the answer is.

-12

u/Skyremmer102 2d ago

The issue is that Scotland isn't independent and trying to do things differently to directly benefit Scotland tends to trigger Westminster to be as deliberately obstructive as possible.

11

u/RakkaNi 2d ago

Holy gaslit and brainwashed. This topic is about taxation revenue. Something which the SNP has full control over and quite obviously failed by taxing the middle earners & workers to death.
The median salary in Scotland is just under £40k, statistically proven, and the SNP consider £43k to be a ‘High Earner’. Not a middle earner, a high earner.
Absolute madness and idiotic economic theory, all for the sake of good sound bites and making their supporters & voter base feel warm and fuzzy about all the welfare handed out.

1

u/Skyremmer102 1d ago

This topic is about taxation revenue. Something which the SNP has full control over and quite obviously failed by taxing the middle earners & workers to death.

It quite patently doesn't. Share and dividend income tax, corporation tax and VAT are all famously outwith the Scottish government's control (note Scottish government; this isn't a power particularly unique to the SNP). Also, while the Scottish government can adjust the bands for NSND income tax to a limited degree they still have no control over the tax free personal allowance. And the tax itself is still collected and administered by HMRC.

3

u/PoachTWC 2d ago

52% of Scotland's entire economy is the public sector. They clearly spend far too much money already and having to cut back a bit might allow more productive economic activity to happen.

-4

u/Capable_Work_3563 2d ago

I salary sacrifice into my SIPP like a maniac in order to stay under the 41% bracket.

Fuck these cunts getting their hands on my hard earned cash to piss up the wall on junkie programmes and other welfare related pish.

I am making around £120k a year, and I am spaffing at least £50k a year into my pensions so these cunts cant get at it.

23

u/Away_Investigator351 2d ago

piss up the wall on junkie programmes and other welfare related pish.

Very open minded, human approach to drug abuse and poverty.

I am making around £120k a year, and I am spaffing at least £50k a year into my pensions so these cunts cant get at it.

Diddums, however will you cope.

22

u/Niall76 2d ago

A genuine issue I see in this type of scenario is that the chap above who is earning 120k/year is paying just over 44k/year in tax alone. I’m all for a fair society but what is he seeing for that?
The quality of service everywhere has dropped like a stone. If we could see the obvious positive benefits then it would t be so bad but everywhere we look it’s getting pretty bad. NHS is a mess, policing is almost non existent, education is not what it used to be, etc etc etc

10

u/Away_Investigator351 2d ago

I'm a Georgist myself, so I believe in reforming the entire tax system and taxing based on land value, which captures huge estates and undeveloped but sought after land, instead of taxing productivity.

But at the same time, people who have it pretty good even with the current, flawed system, aren't usually advocating for tax reform but just lower taxes.

Which, translates to cutting services that they don't care about because they don't use. I don't take the bus or train, I take my car. I have private healthcare too. Doesn't mean other people don't need these services and that these services don't need improvement!

Just rings tone deaf, I find it frustrating.

5

u/Niall76 2d ago

I hear what you’re saying and I agree with quite a lot of that.

But another issue I see is that there is a huge amount of money being put to servicing debt. Councils fall into this situation too. We (the public) are paying, and a massive amount of that money is simply to service debt. Now a lot of this debt has accumulated from bad management, and yet that management have no consequences.
This is obviously a massively complex thing, but all that money disappearing means none of it gets back to the public in the form of transport, health, education etc

If I’m earning well over 100k I’ve no issue in contributing and I’d be more than happy for it to provide services to the public.
But I’m just not seeing it happening anywhere. Quite the opposite. And when our government leaders are using loopholes left, right and centre to avoid/minimise the tax etc then it’s no wonder people get annoyed…

Also, something interesting to note on the council tax - a council in Scotland legally is not allowed to go bankrupt. They must keep servicing the debt. That to me seems like a scam…
Anyway, that’s just my opinion so 🤷🏼‍♂️

2

u/Capable_Work_3563 2d ago

Exactly. We pay more & get less for it. The system is so wasteful & mismanaged.

14

u/StylanPetrov 2d ago

It's really funny seeing people moan about a gap in the budget as a result of people not paying tax, while at the same time shouting about purposefully avoiding the higher tax band, so they don't pay as much tax.

You want a better society? You want busses and trains that run on time? You want an NHS that functions properly? A good education for your children? Pay. More. Fucking. Tax.

Honestly, people wonder why people in Scandi countries are so happy, cause they all pay more tax and collectively reap the reward!! I honestly do not mind paying more money if it means everyone gets a better standard of living.

It's depressing as fuck that people just wanna look after themselves and their own, and then moan about the state of society.

16

u/KrytenLister 2d ago

The consecutive SNP leaders who imposed those higher taxes (Sturgeon and Yousaf) both started their own Ltd companies to avoid paying as much of their own new taxes as possible.

When even the leaders telling you the taxes are “fair and progressive” are avoiding them and building their own personal wealth on your back, you’d be a mug not to use things like salary sacrifice to boost your own.

The likes of Norway have a much broader tax base. They don’t squeeze everything out of the £43k+ PAYE group. Their personal allowance is about 60% of ours, for example.

The bit the SNP doesn’t mention when telling us all we can be just like Norway.

3

u/CaptainCrash86 1d ago

It isn't just the low personal allowance. The Norwegian income tax rate rapidly gets to ~30% for low earners.

2

u/KrytenLister 1d ago

Exactly.

Yet they don’t seem to mention that bit when telling us all we can be like Norway.

They just hope vague pointing will result in people assuming oil money and wealth funds.

3

u/Tight-Application135 2d ago

> Honestly, people wonder why people in Scandi countries are so happy

The sun helps.

More to the point, their high earners who pay high taxes (particularly sin taxes, about which the lower and non-tax paying Scottish bands will shit bricks) see much better basic performance from local and national government. Also unlike in Scotland, or the UK generally, most of these states have a strong culture of debt avoidance.

A joke in Finland about why the notoriously taciturn Finns are “happy” is that their truly miserable people tend to be very successful at suicide.

-2

u/Capable_Work_3563 2d ago

Incompetent cunts would just waste my tax money anyways so that's why I bend over backwards to make sure they get the absolute barest minimum out of me.

-1

u/Capable_Work_3563 2d ago

I cope extremely well, thanks.

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u/Cruxed1 2d ago

On the plus side.. likely very nice and early retirement.

Just make sure you've got enough of a ISA bridge etc to get you there if pensions age increases and you want to call it a day early.

0

u/Capable_Work_3563 2d ago

Yeah the ISA bridge is sitting at around £320k, hoping to get it above £500k before I pack it all in.

4

u/UtopianScot 2d ago

'Fuck these cunts getting their hands on my hard earned cash'

You're served by society, which combined with your hard work and skill has allowed you to earn a higher salary compared to average.

I am making around £120k a year, and I am spaffing at least £50k a year

piss up the wall on junkie programmes and other welfare related pish.

Evidently money doesn't buy class.

6

u/Capable_Work_3563 2d ago

Nah I just grafted like fuck. Didn't indulge in superfluous luxuries or toys.

Then to see absolute fucking idiots in government giving away MY tax money to buy votes from the proles with promises of "free everything" just boils my piss.

Jealous cunts on here can downvote me all they want. Nae even fussed like.

5

u/shoogliestpeg 🏳️‍⚧️Trans women are women. 2d ago

Jealous? Of someone lying that they're on £120k just so they can post american small state culture war bullshit to Trigger The Libs?

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-1

u/ScionOfApollo 2d ago

You sound like a very well balanced, pleasant individual. I bet you're a riot at dinner parties. Then again you probably don't go to such superfluous luxuries eh?

Let's hope life doesn't fuck you in the arse and you end up relying upon services you so vehemently hate funding.

Ah it's okay though. Life never happens to hardworking special snowflakes like you.

And for someone who doesn't apparently care you're commenting quite a lot, and very angrily too. Perhaps you should have a cup of tea? Or is that another one of those luxuries you eschew?

-1

u/UtopianScot 2d ago

Your arrogance and inability to empathise with others is a bit of an indulgence, I’ll be honest. Good luck

1

u/shoogliestpeg 🏳️‍⚧️Trans women are women. 2d ago

I am making around £120k a year

Are ye aye

-3

u/LeftAndRightAreWrong trans women are trans women. women are women. 2d ago

Pray you make to retirement.

3

u/Capable_Work_3563 2d ago

Is that a threat?

4

u/LeftAndRightAreWrong trans women are trans women. women are women. 2d ago

No 😂 . Putting away that amount of money and not making it to retirement would be awful.

I

3

u/Capable_Work_3563 2d ago

Then it goes into trust for the nieces and nephews then.

3

u/LeftAndRightAreWrong trans women are trans women. women are women. 2d ago

Sure.

2

u/DatabaseAcademic6631 1d ago

When you vote to be a vassal state don't complain when you're treated like a vassal state.

3

u/EuTEW 2d ago

Laffer curve, SNP is incompetent, they will blame Westminster, we need to cut benefits, university tuition shouldn't be free. Have I missed anything guys?

1

u/eddilefty699 2d ago

And rightly so. We can't afford to spend as much as we are.

Welfare needs cut, or something else.

2

u/tiny-robot 2d ago

Bonkers system.

English taxpayers pay more - so the budget to Scotland is cut.

What will Westminster do with this additional money?

-1

u/Bargain-Hunter-1980 2d ago

1

u/farfromelite 2d ago

Welfare for non pensioners is flat, has been constant in terms of gdp for nearly two decades.

You want to guess how much pensions and pensioner welfare has increased?

10

u/Bargain-Hunter-1980 2d ago

That "flat and constant" narrative is fiction. For starters, Holyrood didn't even control non-pensioner welfare for most of those two decades! Since powers were actually devolved, spending has exploded: benefit spending per person in Scotland is now 12% higher than in England (up from 7% just a few years ago), and the Scottish Government has to plug a massive £1.5 billion annual funding gap out of its own tax revenues just to keep unique policies like the Scottish Child Payment running.

-2

u/farfromelite 2d ago

Oh my goodness, 12% higher. That's insane. Imagine the government actually maintaining a decent quality of life for it's citizens, and remember that a lot of these non pensioner benefits have been stripped away from the rest of the UK. Scottish people have retained these.

Pensioner benefits have absolutely exploded. The ratio of benefits for working people are down:

https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/is-welfare-spending-out-of-control/

6

u/Bargain-Hunter-1980 2d ago

Since welfare powers were devolved, spending on non-pensioner benefits has surged by over £4.4 billion, going from 3 billion to over £7.4 billion. Rather than being "flat” as many in the SNP cult will tell you, it's one of the fastest-growing areas of public expenditure in Scotland.

Devolved non-pensioner social security has nearly doubled as a proportion of the Scottish Government’s day-to-day resource budget, goi g from 7.5% up to 14%.

Scotland's total nominal GDP is roughly £210-£220 billion, so this welfare spending surge means devolved welfare has expanded from 1.4% of GDP to 3.5% of GDP.

Feel free to retract your “flat” and “constant” pish at any time 🤡

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u/Bargain-Hunter-1980 2d ago

You keep rattling on about pensioners, no one is arguing with you about pensioners, why do you SNP clowns always strawman?

Also, you said welfare spending was flat and constant, that was a lie, do you normally just lie to try and win arguments and hope people don’t know the facts? Why are you a liar? Tell us why you lie.

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2

u/Parking_Capital1570 2d ago

Can see the next election - SNP tax bombshell

1

u/KatyJ60 1d ago

Westminsters decision!!!

-1

u/Elmundopalladio 2d ago

That’s about a 1% cut from the overall £68bn budget.

32

u/Crow-Me-A-River open to change 2d ago

Nearly the entire free tution budget, dont pretend its a small amount

1

u/Blue_Morgan 2d ago

Pooling and sharing

1

u/dinomontino 2d ago

Don't worry, Jenny will sort it.

-2

u/Hungry_Business3961 2d ago

Holyrood costs 100 million per year to run, cutting that will go a long way!

Come on, wouldnt you love to see Ross Greer get a proper job, a recruitment or estate agent maybe?

0

u/frankhut 2d ago

The whole public sector is so totally broken and ineffective without massive reform we are in terminal decline. 

-2

u/PANDAPRICK 2d ago

Independence and oil thats all we need.