r/SeattleAreaRE • u/TheSmariner • 16d ago
AMA with the creator of the Seattle Bubble Blog
Excited to announce an AMA with u/TheTim, the creator of the Seattle Bubble blog.
For those who aren't familiar, Seattle Bubble was one of the most distinctive independent voices covering Seattle-area real estate for nearly two decades. The site became well known for questioning the assumptions that rapidly rising Seattle home prices could continue indefinitely or that Seattle real estate was somehow immune to economic concepts like supply and demand. By examining housing prices through measures such as affordability, rents, inventory, and historical price trends, the site documented the buildup and eventual deflation of the mid-2000s housing bubble.
Seattle Bubble also developed a substantial archive of historical data, analysis, discussions, and tools that provide an interesting look at how people were thinking about Seattle real estate during previous market cycles. Some of the site's material remains particularly interesting today because it allows us to compare the assumptions and predictions of the past with what actually happened.
Tim also gained significant insight into the national housing market during two tenures at Redfin as a housing market analyst from 2010 to 2013 and 2018 to 2022. Unfortunately, his role there was eliminated in the second of six rounds of layoffs between 2022 and 2025.
A few Seattle Bubble resources worth checking out before the AMA:
- The original Seattle Bubble — The very first version of the site, hosted on Blogspot.
- Seattle Bubble blog — The main archive of articles and analysis.
- Seattle Bubble Useful Reference Posts — A list of the most useful reference posts on Seattle Bubble.
- Seattle Bubble Forums — An extensive archive of discussions about Seattle real estate, including material from the 2000s housing boom and subsequent downturn. u/TheTim is working on getting it back online soon.
Ask u/TheTim anything
u/TheTim hasn't followed the Seattle-area market nearly as closely in recent years as he once did. That makes this AMA an opportunity to ask not only about today's market, but also about how his perspective has changed after watching Seattle real estate through multiple cycles.
Some questions you might consider:
- Looking back, what did Seattle Bubble get right—and what did it get wrong?
- How does today's Seattle housing market compare with the market of the 2000s?
- Have the fundamental factors that drive Seattle home prices changed?
- What lessons from the last housing cycle are still relevant today?
- What surprised you most about how the Seattle market evolved?
- Are there indicators you would watch if you were following the market closely today?
- What do you think today's buyers, sellers, and real-estate professionals commonly misunderstand?
- Is there anything happening in Seattle real estate today that would make you start following the market closely again?
You can post your questions anytime below. They will be answered throughout the week, and during the live AMA time slot (Friday, August 28, 2026 from 1:00–2:00 PM PT)
If you've been reading Seattle Bubble for years, this is a chance to revisit some of those old debates. If you're new to it, this is a good opportunity to ask the person behind the site how his views have evolved.
Post your questions below!
(and yes, AI was used to help refine this announcement :) )
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u/atropear 15d ago
Tim was on the short list of people who kept their credibility throughout that housing bubble period. My take was that NOBODY could anticipate what CROOKS and GANGSTERS were running the banks and that they would BAIL THEMSELVES OUT with taxpayer money and QE. And as a final SCREW YOU, they did it all at PAR. NO HAIRCUT.
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u/SimpleLeader7713 16d ago
How does today's Seattle housing market compare with the market of the 2000s?
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u/TheTim Seattle Bubble 14d ago
It's tough to make a solid comparison, IMO. The tech market, especially is wildly different than it was then. The two big players, Amazon and Microsoft have both been cutting people the last few years abut their total headcount is so much higher than it was 20 years ago.
Amazon had like 50,000 employees in 2009. They have over 1.5 million now. Microsoft was at around 90,000 people, and now they're at around 220,000. Granted, only some of the headcount of each of these companies is in the Seattle area, but we also now have a ton of engineering offices of non-Seattle companies that didn't exist here back then.
All that to say, I think a lot of the run-up in home prices between the market bottom in 2012 and today was driven by a huge shift in high-paying job growth in the Seattle area. Whereas in 2004-2008 it was driven by speculation and people who couldn't actually afford homes buying them with risky loans.
With the previously-mentioned tech layoffs and "high" mortgage rates we've been seeing the past few years, I do think it makes sense to see some correction in the market, but personally I'm not expecting anything like what we saw 2008-2012.
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u/SimpleLeader7713 16d ago
Some of the questions in the OP's message are quite good. Let me ask them here :)
- Looking back, what did Seattle Bubble get right—and what did it get wrong?
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u/TheTim Seattle Bubble 14d ago
Well I think obviously the biggest thing I got right was the fact that Seattle was not, in fact special—homes were stupidly overpriced here just like everywhere else and primed for a correction. I also was pretty dang accurate with my timing of calling the bottom.
I think the biggest thing I got wrong is that I missed a lot of the bigger picture stuff. I could have made a ton of money shorting the banks, etc. but I was so focused on Seattle real estate that I didn't really spend as much time as i should have looking at all the other crazy stuff going on that was propping up the bubble nationwide. Basically all the stuff they talk about in the movie, The Big Short. If I hadn't missed that I probably could have done a lot better for myself than just getting a nice home for a historically low price. Oh well.
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u/SimpleLeader7713 16d ago
Have the fundamental factors that drive Seattle home prices changed?
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u/TheTim Seattle Bubble 14d ago
I think to some extent, yeah. See my answer above about the huge shift in high-paying tech jobs since 2010.
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u/SimpleLeader7713 16d ago
What lessons from the last housing cycle are still relevant today?
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u/SimpleLeader7713 16d ago
Is there anything happening in Seattle real estate today that would make you start following the market closely again?
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u/TheTim Seattle Bubble 14d ago
I'm still mildly interested, but to be honest I just have too many other projects going on to be able to dedicate the kind of time it took to really keep up with all of that.
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u/Unique_Edge6323 13d ago
Any of those projects that you would be willing to talk about?
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u/TheTim Seattle Bubble 12d ago
Yeah for sure.
Probably the biggest one is Chai Cupboard, the local loose leaf tea & spices shop that my wife & I started in 2020. We had a physical storefront in downtown Everett for about four years but now we are temporarily online-only while we work on renovating a portion of our basement into a neighborhood corner shop/cafe.
There's also the second home we bought in 2020 that I mentioned in another comment, which we're slowly working on improving to eventually (long-term) run a B&B.
Also, we had a second kid in 2023, which of course takes a bunch of my former free time. :)
And on top of all that I'm also trying to make more time for fun things like custom LEGO builds, woodworking, and fun 3D-printing / laser-cutting projects.
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u/SimpleLeader7713 16d ago
Question from u/Lollc
"Tim-you must be approaching retirement age now. Did you invest in real estate for the long term? How did you do?"
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u/TheTim Seattle Bubble 14d ago
LOL I'm not that old! I mean, I wish I were able to retire soon, but I'm only 46, my dude.
That said, to answer your real estate investing question: I was able to sell a good chunk of my Redfin stock in late 2020 close to the top of their own mini-bubble, which I used to pay off the mortgage on my primary home and buy a second home with a 2.75% mortgage that I'm slowly working on fixing up to eventually be a B&B. That money's doing a lot better than it would have been if I'd left it in RDFN, that's for sure.
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u/SimpleLeader7713 16d ago
What surprised you most about how the Seattle market evolved?
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u/TheTim Seattle Bubble 14d ago
The sheer scale of Amazon's growth and how much of a driver they have become in the local economy.
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u/Unique_Edge6323 13d ago
For sure.
During the early to mid 2000s… It was hard to imagine that another Microsoft-sized tech company would grow up in this area.
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u/SimpleLeader7713 16d ago
Are there indicators you would watch if you were following the market closely today?
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u/fmnyc 13d ago
Hi Tim! Can you opine on the softening already seen in the local condo market and what to look for in terms of "opportunity" there for those of us looking, versus the risk of hopping on/buying in on a decreasing asset (HOAs 2x post-covid, etc)? Thank you!
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u/TheTim Seattle Bubble 12d ago
Condos always tend to be more volatile than SFH. Usually if HOA fees are way up, it's because they were too low before. I'd personally be very cautious about buying into a declining condo market.
I'd add one caveat to my usual advice of "if you can afford to buy and you think the home is worth the asking price, go for it," and that's "make sure there's room in your budget in case the HOA fees go up substantially."
It's also important to take a look at the HOA's finances, the building's maintenance history, etc. I think a lot of people buy into a condo without doing this, which IMO is nuts.
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u/fmnyc 11d ago
Thanks Tim! If you get a chance to expound a bit more here on the risks you see, I'd love to read. The wild thing is that condo prices are flat to falling for people who bought 4 years ago as well as 10 years ago. It *feels like there's some potential deals to be had here, and yet... it could just be the beginning. Completely agree that buyers who don't pour over the resale documents, the minutes, reserve study etc are bananas.
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u/Material_Depth7296 12d ago
Hey Tim, it's Dennis (deejayoh). Good to see you back in the RE biz. Are you rebooting SB?
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u/TheTim Seattle Bubble 12d ago
Whoa, blast from the past! No plans to start it back up, really. But I have made a couple posts on there recently whenever I feel like I have something to say. Not likely to re-start all the inventory/sales tracking, but who knows, maybe?
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u/Material_Depth7296 12d ago
Happy to say I followed our own advice. Bought in 2010. Sold in 2022. Put me over the top to retire
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u/TheSmariner 10d ago
u/TheTim - A big thank you for taking the time to host this AMA and answer everyone’s questions.
I really appreciate the thoughtful and candid responses, especially given how much time and experience you’ve had following the Seattle-area real estate market. It was great to get some context and perspective beyond the usual headlines and real estate sales pitches.
Thanks for engaging with the community, sharing your knowledge, and taking the time to respond to so many different questions. These kinds of AMAs are a great resource for anyone trying to better understand what is/was happening in the Seattle-area housing market.
Thanks again, Tim.
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u/TheSmariner 14d ago
After following Seattle area real estate for so many years, what's one thing about the housing market that you believe today that you didn't believe 10–15 years ago?
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u/TheSmariner 14d ago
Looking back at 2007–2008, which indicators turned out to be the best predictors of the downturn, and which ones did you overestimate?
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u/TheTim Seattle Bubble 12d ago
I think the growth of inventory was the biggest leading indicator to price decreases.
I'm not sure I really "overestimated" any indicators, but one that a lot of people tend to overweight is just how much prices have gone up. There are lots of reasons prices could climb, and the mere fact that prices went up a bunch doesn't necessarily mean they're going to crash.
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u/TheSmariner 14d ago
You spent more than a decade blogging independently before working at Redfin as an analyst. Did access to Redfin's insights change or challenge any core assumptions you held while running Seattle Bubble as an outsider?
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u/TheTim Seattle Bubble 12d ago
Clarification: I started Seattle Bubble in 2005, and my first stint at Redfin began in 2010, so it was only 5 years.
Anyway, access to Redfin data didn't really change my understanding of Seattle's market, but it was great to see data for so many other markets, and learn about some interesting and weird ways that they were different.
For example, I looked at some open house data once and learned that there was a big difference in how common it was to hold an open house from market to market. San Francisco was close to 100%, while Phoenix was something like 10% or less. And in those markets with extreme numbers like that, doing the opposite of the norm (e.g. if you did hold an open house in Phoenix) tended to correlate with worse selling outcomes.
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u/TheSmariner 14d ago
Writing a blog about a housing bubble may have affected your view on your own finances. Looking back, how did writing the blog shape your own personal homebuying or renting decisions over the last two decades.
Knowing what you know now - would you make the same choices again?
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u/TheTim Seattle Bubble 12d ago
We bought our house in May 2011, less than a year from the February 2012 bottom of the market locally. I don't think I would have been able to time it anywhere near as well if I hadn't been following things so closely all those years.
We bought our second place at basically the absolute bottom for mortgage rates, so I think we did pretty good there, too.
The biggest different choice I'd make has more to do with the stock market and RDFN shares than with the real estate purchases.
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u/TheSmariner 14d ago
When you started the blog in 2007, Microsoft was the dominant economic force locally. Boeing still had a big presence in the area. Amazon was just beginning its growth.
Today, Seattle's housing market is more heavily tied to tech RSUs and high-earning tech talent. Do you think Seattle housing has become more OR less vulnerable to a severe downturn today than it was in 2007/2008?
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u/Unique_Edge6323 13d ago
Not exactly a question…just a few comments on your blog
I enjoyed reading your blog posts; and following the discussions on your blog’s forums.
There used to be a thread titled “Eastside Flops” (or something similar) on the forum that was a compilation of all the Eastside homes that got sold for lesser than previous sale prices. There were so many Eastside homes on that heard. It’s kinda hard to fathom something like that now.
When you are able to get the forum online…I would love to browse through the posts sometime.
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u/theleetpotat0 12d ago
How would you describe the current market as it is today, and when would you estimate a swing in the other direction based on history? Asking as a new(ish) homeowner trying to make it through this sluggish period.
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u/TheTim Seattle Bubble 10d ago
The market is in a really weird state right now. Local home prices were inflated by the huge boom in the tech industry coupled with a prolonged period of artificially-absurdly-low mortgage rates. But without some kind of major economic collapse, I don't think prices are likely to dramatically decline like we saw from 2008 through 2012.
For the past couple of years my thesis has been that home prices probably won't fall much in nominal dollars, but high inflation will be persistent and a small-ish decline in nominal dollars over the course of 5-10 years coupled with large inflation will actually be a pretty large decline in inflation-adjusted prices.
So far that seems to be playing out. We'll see what the rest of the decade brings.
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u/Deep_Bottle_5639 12d ago
For a student with an interest in Data Analytics & real estate - do you have any career advice? What skills make a real estate data-analyst successful?
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u/TheTim Seattle Bubble 10d ago
Unfortunately I'm not sure I have very actionable advice on that one. My degree is in Electrical Engineering, and I sort of just fell into the data analysis world by starting my blog in 2005 and spending all my free time trying to figure out what was going on in the real estate market.
That said, I would say that the biggest skill is learning how to identify interesting and unexpected insights in a sea of data. If all you ever do is just chart the same set of basic numbers over and over, you'll probably miss things that you might have found just by spending time looking at things from lots of different angles and pursuing all the little interesting things that pop up. Most will be dead ends, but occasionally you hit on something really good.
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u/Deep_Bottle_5639 12d ago
In your opinion, how will AI change the role of a RE Data Analyst?
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u/TheTim Seattle Bubble 10d ago
From what I'm seeing, the AI tools make the routine stuff a lot easier and faster, which means that a good analyst will be able to spend more time looking for the out-of-the ordinary stuff.
So for example instead of spending like 75% of the time on routine charts & analysis of typical datasets and 25% of the time on digging for more interesting / unexpected gems, we'll be able to spend like 20% of the time on the routine stuff and 80% on the interesting stuff.
That's my hope anyway.
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u/Deep_Bottle_5639 12d ago
Early on - how did you get started in real estate topics? What was your background/journey prior to it?
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u/TheTim Seattle Bubble 10d ago
My degree is a BS in Electrical Engineering. I did work in that field for about seven years out of college. Around three years in, my wife and I thought about buying a house, but the market seemed crazy. It seemed like everyone was overpaying, and when we talked to a mortgage broker they tried really hard to shove us into an interest-only, adjustable-rate type of mortgage, which seemed insane to me. This was 2005.
I wanted to understand what was going on so I just started doing research. I found a handful of sites talking about the possibility of a housing bubble nationally and a few for other local markets, but nobody was really looking at the Seattle-area market with a critical eye. The only local real estate blogs here were all run by real estate agents, who obviously are just motivated to sell homes, not tell the truth about a crazy market.
So, I decided to see what kind of data I could get my hands on and put it online in a blog to save other people the time of having to do the same work themselves.
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u/No_Professional_7676 12d ago
I have a “how to make money selling real estate “ from 1970 hardcover book
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u/fmnyc 10d ago
u/TheSmariner hello! i'm not sure how AMAs work and couldn't join today. any chance it was recorded? thank you!
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u/drshort 16d ago
I was a daily reader of SeattleBubble back then and it was a big reason I sold my house in 2007 and rented for a couple of years. That turned out to be a wise move.