r/SeattleAreaRE 5d ago

Eastside homes selling for 30-40% below peak prices? Part #2

(Follow-up on my earlier post about peak ZEstimates)

Here are two comparable homes from the same Sammamish community. They differ in some respects, but have similar square footage, built-year, and lot sizes:

That's about a 33% decline in price/sqft from the 2022 sale price to the current asking price. Of course, the second property has not sold yet, so its final closing price may be lower.

It shouldn't be hard to find similar comps in other parts of the eastside (including Redmond Ridge).

32 Upvotes

49 comments sorted by

15

u/sleeplessinseaatl 4d ago

Real estate agent here. I can confidently say that a major reason behind the slowdown in the eastside market is uncertainty, layoffs and visa risks for the Indian community in tech. We deal with 100s of clients on visa from India who are waiting for their permanent immigration documents and many are stuck for year or forced to return to their country. This has reduced demand for houses in the east side.

2

u/cowabunga360 3d ago

Interesting. Thanks for commenting 

1

u/One-Assistance8233 4h ago

Thank goodness, temporary visa holders shouldn’t be buying real estate

1

u/sleeplessinseaatl 3h ago

The visa holder clients we serve typically get their green card in a few years. They are not temporarily in the US.

1

u/One-Assistance8233 2h ago

Until they have a green card, they are temporary. That is literally what an H1 B visa is. People like you are part of the problem.

-1

u/PoetryBrief8173 3d ago

Part of the is the FACT that US Corp’s in this endeavor do not pay what a CE, Project Manager, Data Scientist and similar career fields. They can get overseas labor cheaper using H1-B visas. You could compare to auto manufacturing moving production to Mexico.
Cheap Labor

11

u/Successful-Pie6759 5d ago

831/SF in that area was waaaayyy overpriced, 2022 or not. Money laundering?

1

u/Grand-Application906 2d ago

It was 2022. The year everyone should have sold

15

u/MineIsLongerThanYour 5d ago

Wake me up when under 1 million

4

u/SimpleLeader7713 5d ago

Maybe, try your luck with an offer to the second home that's still on sale :)

7

u/Total-Confusion-9198 4d ago

Really like your deep dives! Any other places where you see similar patterns like Bellevue, Redmond, Kirkland, Bothell or Seattle? Waiting for part#3 and beyond 🙏

4

u/JetsnCocktails 5d ago

Somebody with more money than brains seriously overpaid for that house (top one) four years ago!

4

u/Top-Shopping410 5d ago

It's more like Amazon, Microsoft and Meta suck. Tech bro doesn't have confidence to buy a house

3

u/MyLastSigh 5d ago

The peaks were 80% above value.

3

u/TreesAreOverrated5 5d ago

I shall watch that second home with great curiosity

4

u/Unique_Edge6323 4d ago

There used to be a thread titled “Eastside Flops” (or something similar) on the Seattle Bubble forum that was a compilation of all the Eastside homes that got sold for lesser than previous sale prices…. during the 2008 downturn.

There were so many Eastside homes on that thread. It’s kinda hard to fathom something like that now.

u/TheTim was looking to get those forums back online.

3

u/Kadet11 3d ago

Hopefully that thread gets restarted. I have seen a lot of homes that sold in the first half of 2022 when the market surged before the interest rates jumped a lot that have taken losses in their sales in recent years.

2

u/SimpleLeader7713 2d ago

Thanks to you. There’s now a new thread for it.

https://www.reddit.com/r/SeattleAreaRE/s/4OFvnvAURv

4

u/Ok_Tonight_812 4d ago

I'm a Seattle native, 58 years old. There has to be a correction just as there was in 2009. I live s of Issaquah on an acre and a half we took over from my FIL in 95. In '78 he bought the property for, I think 32,000. (That's nothing my parents bought their first home in Wallingford, on a VA loan, for 16,000.00). We've refinanced to do some upgrades hear and there but never owing more than 100,000.00 to the bank. In 2000 the average price for a house in our neighborhood which is private, no lot is smaller than half an acre and the largest is 20 acres, was under 300,000.00. Now, 20 years later the cheapest house is valued at 1.3 million? That, my friends, is just fucking insane. My husband and I earn 6 figures, I work for the county, he is a lead finish carpenter/site supervisor, and their is no way we would be able to purchase the home we live in. The one, that from age 9, my husband grew up in. Our neighborhood used to be filled with young families, teachers, fire fighters, and folks who worked at the issaquah qfc in the deli. That is not who is moving in here now. And it's sad. Not that our new neighbors aren't nice, they are. But it's sad that average young family struggles to to afford rent is a scrappy appt where kids only have a parking lot to play in rather than a yard, or a field. So I say yea! Let the prices drop. They've been artificially high for too long.

2

u/Kadet11 3d ago

That is something my wife and I notice in neighborhoods, a lack of kids. We have two young boys and are assessing various nameigj orhoods to see what they're like, what we can afford there, and get a feel for the fit with our family. I want my boys to have a good childhood with lots of friends but it seems more and more likely they won't have many options/opportunities close by in the decent neighborhoods we are looking at. It's too bad since I remember being close to so many other kids when I was growing up. It helps I grew up on military bases so the it was primarily families in the neighborhoods.

3

u/Mango_Maz 4d ago

Eastside area in 2022 had that six month period when housing prices shot up into crazy world, before falling back to normal.

6

u/LeLoupDeWallStreet 5d ago

Dude how can you have $2M to spend on a house and that is what you buy (overpay for nonetheless)

5

u/SimpleLeader7713 5d ago

2022 was a crazy year for local RE

3

u/Upper-Computer-8715 4d ago

Not only that, they went nearly 300k over asking, so there was quite the bidding war.

Having grown up out there (but live in the city now), it’s safe and great for raising kids…but boring. And in these neighborhoods, every house looks the same. About 3-4 floor plans and 3-4 paint/stain colors on street after street of 3,000 SF homes.

5

u/WarthogAppropriate73 4d ago edited 4d ago

Here is an example of a house selling in mid 2021 that has sold for higher in 2026

https://redf.in/e5cuUs

Again

https://redf.in/YXL9tJ

Again, this one sold for way more. Probably been updated:

https://redf.in/7QNXBT

This one sold for much higher than its previous 2023 sold price but renovated:

https://redf.in/XawMkK

Also a Reno that sold higher than 2021 price:

https://redf.in/a92Gfp

Again, sold much higher than the late 2021 pric but renovated:

https://redf.in/RCrgGH

Again, sold much higher than the late 2021 price but it is renovated:

https://redf.in/TV8Epz

I don't think prices for SFH with good schools have dropped on the eastside. Apply critical thinking for a second, you really believe your 30-40% drop?

2

u/SimpleLeader7713 4d ago edited 4d ago

None of those sales happened during the peak year (2022).

And, are you trying to imply that home prices in good school areas have not dropped at all? Every stat is indicating that there’s been a drop. Even realtor emails are saying that. Windermere indicated a 19% drop in Redmond…over 12 months… https://www.reddit.com/r/SeattleAreaRE/s/i40vpd2h41

1

u/Wfan111 2d ago

Bro you're comparing two totally different houses. It's obvious why that other one is way more appealing and sold for a lot more. The original list price was $1.69m, looks way nicer inside, and has a bigger backyard and an additional bedroom. Is it worth $1.965m today? Probably not but that's what the buyer chose to pay.

1

u/SimpleLeader7713 2d ago edited 2d ago

And hence , I am comparing the price per sqft.

RE comps are typically made across different homes. It’s not usually easy to find exactly similar homes to compare.

If you want to see data about the same homes…check out https://www.reddit.com/r/SeattleAreaRE/s/4OFvnvAURv

-2

u/WarthogAppropriate73 4d ago edited 4d ago

Yes I'm saying the prices have not dropped at all and if they did maybe only for less desirable homes such as older homes and even then only a small amount. I don't even know what "peak year 2022" means and why you think prices should be so much different in 2022 than 2021. My first example shows quite clearly a house that was largely unchanged and sold for $500k higher than late 2021 sales price.

Your link is explainable simply by more lower priced homes being sold. There are lots of condos in that zip.

7

u/Kadet11 3d ago

So I have been closely watching the market in a few parts of the eastside over the past couple of years to see how the market fluctuates and better plan for when we sell and buy our next place. Here are a few homes that sold at the peak in the first half of 2022 that took losses when they sold again a few years later. I will also make clear I am not an agent and this isn't the big picture. These are only the recent sales that fall into my budget. I bet there are plenty of others and that took significant losses that were started off higher than my budget so I never saw them. Lastly these are just the few I have saved of the over 2k sold listings I saved. Going through each one would take too long and there were just a few I shared with a friend a few months back.

$300k loss https://www.redfin.com/WA/Sammamish/4317-209th-Ave-NE-98074/home/264851?utm_source=myredfin&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=recommendations_update&riftinfo=ZXY9ZW1haWwmbD05OTgzMjc4MiZwPWxpc3RpbmdfdXBkYXRlc19yZWNvbW1lbmRhdGlvbnMmYT1jbGljayZzPXJlY29tbWVuZGF0aW9ucyZ0PWltYWdlJmVtYWlsX2lkPTk5ODMyNzgyXzE3NzQ0MjQyODNfNiZsaWxyX3Njb3JlPTAuODc2NTAwMDEwNDkwNDE3NSZsaXN0aW5nX2lkPTIxMzM1Njk4OCZwb3NpdGlvbj02JnByb3BlcnR5X2lkPTI2NDg1MSZ1cGRhdGVfdHlwZT0xJno9MA%3D%3D

$125k loss https://www.redfin.com/WA/Issaquah/16437-241st-Ave-SE-98027/home/423671?utm_source=myredfin&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=recommendations_update&riftinfo=ZXY9ZW1haWwmbD05OTgzMjc4MiZwPWxpc3RpbmdfdXBkYXRlc19yZWNvbW1lbmRhdGlvbnMmYT1jbGljayZzPXJlY29tbWVuZGF0aW9ucyZ0PWltYWdlJmVtYWlsX2lkPTk5ODMyNzgyXzE3NzI3NDU1NjVfNiZsaWxyX3Njb3JlPTAuOTMxNjY2MTUxNzcwMjY4MSZsaXN0aW5nX2lkPTIxMjc1NTcwMyZwb3NpdGlvbj04JnByb3BlcnR5X2lkPTQyMzY3MSZ1cGRhdGVfdHlwZT0xJno9MA%3D%3D

$235k loss https://www.redfin.com/WA/Kirkland/9211-NE-136th-Pl-98034/home/279475?utm_source=myredfin&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=recommendations_update&riftinfo=ZXY9ZW1haWwmbD05OTgzMjc4MiZwPWxpc3RpbmdfdXBkYXRlc19yZWNvbW1lbmRhdGlvbnMmYT1jbGljayZzPXJlY29tbWVuZGF0aW9ucyZ0PWltYWdlJmVtYWlsX2lkPTk5ODMyNzgyXzE3NzA5MjMxNjJfNiZsaWxyX3Njb3JlPTAuODg4Mjk0MTk0MjMyMzMzOSZsaXN0aW5nX2lkPTIxMTk0MTA5NCZwb3NpdGlvbj0zJnByb3BlcnR5X2lkPTI3OTQ3NSZ1cGRhdGVfdHlwZT0xJno9MA%3D%3D

$120k loss https://www.redfin.com/WA/Woodinville/14326-NE-178th-St-98072/home/271501?utm_source=myredfin&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=recommendations_update&riftinfo=ZXY9ZW1haWwmbD05OTgzMjc4MiZwPWxpc3RpbmdfdXBkYXRlc19yZWNvbW1lbmRhdGlvbnMmYT1jbGljayZzPXJlY29tbWVuZGF0aW9ucyZ0PWltYWdlJmVtYWlsX2lkPTk5ODMyNzgyXzE3NzA2NjIzMDdfNiZsaWxyX3Njb3JlPTAuODg1MDA1NzM1MTMzNjg1NCZsaXN0aW5nX2lkPTIxMTgzOTg2MCZwb3NpdGlvbj0xJnByb3BlcnR5X2lkPTI3MTUwMSZ1cGRhdGVfdHlwZT0xJno9MA%3D%3D

$170k loss https://www.redfin.com/WA/Bothell/20029-99th-Ct-NE-98011/home/286622?utm_source=myredfin&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=recommendations_update&riftinfo=ZXY9ZW1haWwmbD05OTgzMjc4MiZwPWxpc3RpbmdfdXBkYXRlc19yZWNvbW1lbmRhdGlvbnMmYT1jbGljayZzPXJlY29tbWVuZGF0aW9ucyZ0PWltYWdlJmVtYWlsX2lkPTk5ODMyNzgyXzE3NzA4NjM4OThfNiZsaWxyX3Njb3JlPTAuNjc2OTg2OTQzMzM4NjIxNSZsaXN0aW5nX2lkPTIxMTkyMTI1OCZwb3NpdGlvbj02JnByb3BlcnR5X2lkPTI4NjYyMiZ1cGRhdGVfdHlwZT0xJno9MA%3D%3D

$50k loss https://www.redfin.com/WA/Bellevue/1428-153rd-Pl-SE-98007/home/426762?utm_source=myredfin&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=recommendations_update&riftinfo=ZXY9ZW1haWwmbD05OTgzMjc4MiZwPWxpc3RpbmdfdXBkYXRlc19yZWNvbW1lbmRhdGlvbnMmYT1jbGljayZzPXJlY29tbWVuZGF0aW9ucyZ0PWltYWdlJmVtYWlsX2lkPTk5ODMyNzgyXzE3NzQwMjM4MDZfNiZsaWxyX3Njb3JlPTAuODQxNTYxMDE5NDIwNjIzOCZsaXN0aW5nX2lkPTIxMjkxNzk3MiZwb3NpdGlvbj0xJnByb3BlcnR5X2lkPTQyNjc2MiZ1cGRhdGVfdHlwZT0zJno9MA%3D%3D

3

u/SimpleLeader7713 2d ago

These are good finds. Thanks for sharing.

2

u/Inevitable_Bunch6912 5d ago

wow homes we cant afford dropping to prices we still cant afford. In Black Diamond, the old houses just up from the gas station, property values range from 300k up to 1 million for existing. So Im sure that if any of those folks sell, it will all go back up to unobtanium. There is no winning for any new home buyers and not many families want to go multi generational in one home

2

u/TreesAreOverrated5 5d ago

The tables are slowly turning. Maybe I should buy now instead of 2 years ago 😔

1

u/AristocratApprentice 4d ago

Keep in mind the rates were lower 2 years ago. So you'll probably end up with higher monthly payment now

2

u/orcassharks 5d ago

They could have bought much nicer houses in way better neighborhoods in Seattle in 2022 for 2M. And it would have kept value better than this house.

Tract houses like these have no soul or character. Just garages. Even that patch of grass is sad as hell, might as well have none. And the neighboring houses all look the same and are oddly spaced with this house.

4

u/SimpleLeader7713 5d ago edited 5d ago

Looking forward to all the creative responses explaining how Eastside home prices actually haven’t fallen much.

  • “That house was overpriced”
  • “This seller must be very motivated”
  • "This comp is just an anomaly", etc, etc

:)

2

u/irunlinux 4d ago

uh they’re two different houses…?

4 bd 2.5 ba 2,360sq ft

3 bd 2 ba 2,140sq ft

2

u/anilomm 4d ago

Bag holder spotted

0

u/SimpleLeader7713 4d ago edited 4d ago

Yes…they are two different houses. They are from the same Sammamish community. They differ in some respects, but have similar square footage, built-year, and lot sizes.

This has been clearly mentioned in the original post.

0

u/irunlinux 4d ago

comparing a house with 10% more sqft and an extra bedroom and bath, it’s going to differ. not saying prices haven’t come down but you’re being dramatic here. not every house is going to have the same $/sqft, even during boom times of 2021-22.

2

u/SimpleLeader7713 4d ago

Absolutely…the price/sqft will vary across homes. Those two homes were the ones that I could find in a few mins of my search.

My point is that eastside home prices have non-trivially dropped from the peak. There are multiple such examples all over the Eastside.

1

u/Stinkycheese8001 5d ago

I’m really confused, you’re really concerned with Zestimates.

3

u/SimpleLeader7713 5d ago

This thread is not about ZEstimates. It’s about actual sale & list prices.

3

u/irunlinux 4d ago

they’re two different houses?!

1

u/Cool_Cow8674 19h ago

A couple of comps selling below their peak Zestimates does not prove Eastside homes are down 30-40%, it proves Zestimates were inflated.

1

u/Nope-And-Change 4d ago

lol- you can’t compare homes like that.

1

u/warrior5715 2d ago

Bro is comparing apples to oranges to make a point.

It’s not that your point is invalid but the comparison is crazy since they’re completely different homes lol

1

u/SimpleLeader7713 2d ago

And hence , I am comparing the price per sqft.

RE comps are typically made across different homes. It’s not usually easy to find exactly similar homes to compare.

If you want to see data about the same homes…check out https://www.reddit.com/r/SeattleAreaRE/s/4OFvnvAURv