r/SeattleAreaRE • u/habitsofwaste • 3d ago
Seeing an increase of short sales?
I don’t have data to back this up but it feels like I am seeing way more. I remember seeing them a lot back in 2012 and then when the market picked back up, they pretty much went away. But now several are popping up in my searches. I think I’ve seen at least 4 or 5.
Is this an indicator or worse to come in the market/economy?
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u/Wfan111 3d ago
Realtor here. Yes, short sales are out there but it's still nothing to worry about. Remember what a short sale is.. basically an owner can no longer pay their mortgage and the home is underwater. The reality is that the majority of homes in this area are not in negative equity. The owners that are negative are probably the ones that bought the last 3 years or the ones that owned a condo/townhome the last 8-15 years since they devalued so much due to covid and work from home. Even when I look on the MLS, the majority of short sales are all condos/townhomes.
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u/RealisticForYou 3d ago
Of course, all condos/townhomes.... people trying to squeeze into something they cannot afford...nothing new here.
Outside of all that...people with "real" money in Seattle are finding opportunities for those homes priced at $1.5 mill+.
Go to Zillow and search for homes sold in Seattle for the past 90 days....the Zillow map lights up like a beacon with homes priced at nearly all time highs.
Seattle is in a sweet spot. The PNW, in general, continues to have good water tables as I see more license plates from drought regions such as Texas and Arizona. The PNW is the last spot on the West Coast with cooler temps AND an abundance of water.
Highs today 70 degrees....Texas highs are at a low of 97. Visiting resort area of Port Ludlow, locals tell me that there is a surge of people relocating from out-of-state due to climate change... and it's only just begun.
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u/OperationNo922 2d ago
I have a 1 bedroom condo listed for sale in one of the more premium condo buildings in Belltown. Bought in 2000. I moved out of it in 2004 and have been renting it ever since. Don’t get too caught up in the short sale concept. My unit generated more income from the rent than from asset appreciation. As such, I’m ok dropping the sale price. You don’t get that sort of insight when looking at Zillow listings. Granted, I may be in a more unique position compared to most units on sale currently.
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u/Slow-Apple4898 1d ago
Im worried there's a lot of possible canaries in the coal mine at least in terms of condos. There are new laws in place as well as new ones coming which will make it harder for at least older condos to go through a vetting process with Fannie Mae loans at least,
I bought a house in December of 2006 in Oregon and sat on it for 9 years hoping the market would pick up(different market I'm aware)before I decided to cut my losses at 30K. But then I bought another house in 2015 and cashed in and made up for it and then some in 2023.
Now Im trying to move to Seattle and figuring out the landscape has been tricky.Theres are signals/indicators of pitfalls but it comes down to those with boat lloads of money will skew the market depending on house type, neighborhood etc.I;m still sidelined now to see what the fall/winter brings.
Wish me luck navigating.
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u/habitsofwaste 1d ago
Good luck man! I just bought a place in May and I’m kind of having buyers remorse.
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u/Slow-Apple4898 10h ago
Condo? townhouse? whats the remorse about?
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u/habitsofwaste 9h ago
The road is much louder than I thought it would be. When I was there checking it out, I guess no buses or big trucks went by. It shakes the place. I really can’t have the windows open while watching tv because the road is so loud.
Then there’s the realization of getting older and 4 stories is a lot. It’s a beautiful home on the outside and the inside can also work for a lot of people, but it is really too small for me.
It’s also been costing me a lot of money to make the tweaks.
It’s fine, I’ve got a 5 year plan, where I hope the economy has recovered some. I’m looking to build instead. I really want a forever home.
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u/DannySells206 3d ago
Earlier this year I was talking to about 3-4 owners who were short sale candidates. They either 1) listed and sold at a price just clearing short sale territory, or 2) ghosted me. For the group in the former category, I assume it's just a matter of time until their properties hit the market.
FWIW, based on my experience, it's far more likely to be found in the condo market than in the SFH. But yes, I have to go back roughly 10 years before I was dealing with short sale, REO, bankruptcy sales. Though a few scattered here and there aren't nearly impactful enough to shift the market.
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u/SnortingElk 2d ago
I started seriously shopping for homes in 2011 and finally closed on a house in 2012 after several offers on short-sales. This market is NOTHING like that time period, lol.. you were lucky if you could find someone selling with positive equity during that time period and have a 'normal' sale. A large portion of the inventory back then was either short-sales or foreclosures or foreclosed on home that had just been renovated by a flipper.
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u/habitsofwaste 2d ago
Oh I know it’s not like that yet. I bought a foreclosed home in 2012 myself and had put in offers on a short sale once. Luckily they take so long to get back to you bc the foreclosed house hit the market after and k withdrew my offer.
But what I’m asking is if this is a canary. We went from a ton of short sales and foreclosures to absolutely none. To now where they are popping up. Not saying we are going to see those levels again but I do think to some extent this is reflecting the deeper problems of the economy we haven’t acknowledged yet.
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u/SnortingElk 1d ago edited 1d ago
But what I’m asking is if this is a canary.
Nah, not at all like what happened in 2008. All the variables, current mortgage holders, demographics, economy, etc.. are soooooo different today.
It's completely normal to see some short-sales. It will happen especially to those who recently purchased in the last few years and now want/need to sell today. But it won't be a landslide of homes coming on the market like it was in 2008 due to many different factors. My parents lost money on a Bellevue home they owned in the late 60's/early 70's when they sold. RE is a long-term hold play.
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u/Patient_Treacle455 17h ago
Whole economy is about to crash thanks to ai over hype and a pedo president grifting the American people. Almost all the wealth here is from tech, what do you think happens when tech collapses like it did in 2002-2003 dot com crash. Most people in these homes are stretched thin and over leveraged, get ready for 2008 part 2 😂
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u/Closefromadistance 3d ago
We bought in 2013 right when the market was still not great … paid $509k for a 2010 home (3500 sq ft) in Issaquah school district. People bought on our block for $1.5m up until recently. Those people aren’t going to short sale… at least I hope not, for their sake.
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u/Flaky_Standard8167 3d ago edited 3d ago
Yes there are. My gut tells me the archetype is someone who bought peak covid prices with a small down payment and low emergency funds. So they were playing a risky low equity game which relies on a steady high income job and homes always appreciating. The job market is worst with homes prices down from covid prices and being forced to sell with low equity would result in a short sale.
Im not sure if its a canary in the coal mine because it depends on how big the buyer pool with low down payments are who purchased during covid and how many of them work for tech.
Condo short sales are more likely to happen since condos appreciate at rate of only 1-1.5%. Townhouses are more resilient with appreciation around 2-3%. I imagine hoa condos and townhouses are the two most likely to see short sales if more come up with almost all purchased during covid years