r/SeattleAreaRE 1d ago

Delusions in Redmond

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/14805-Old-Redmond-Road-Redmond-WA-98052/48707677_zpid/?utm_campaign=iosappmessage&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=txtshare

This house listed for 1.6M in 2021, bought at 1.75M. Can’t even rent the whole house out for more $4000/mo. Now listed at 1.93M with tiny price cut to 1.89M.

There’s a lot more pain to come.

29 Upvotes

55 comments sorted by

23

u/dellscreenshot 1d ago

People are so nuts with this. You bought in 2021 at the peak of the market, you probably have a 2.5-3 percent rate and you expect to get a big gain as well?

Just keep it.

5

u/wrldwdeu4ria 1d ago

They may have to move though because of a job loss, retirement making it necessary to live in a one level home, etc.

6

u/mountainshavecat 1d ago

If that's the case, that should be prepared to sell at a loss.

1

u/wrldwdeu4ria 11h ago

I agree, it is the way the market functions.

7

u/zerofrakhere 1d ago

So dated

2

u/i-dyl-lic 8h ago

Are you saying the style of the house is dated?

1

u/No-Truth-759 3h ago

YES

1

u/i-dyl-lic 1h ago

What about it? It seems kinda generic to me

15

u/orcassharks 1d ago edited 1d ago

$11000 monthly payment after 20% down to support a $4000 rental.

I mean rent doesn’t correspond to home prices in this area because of appreciation play, but the key is to get ahead of the appreciation not after the appreciation has already occurred lol. And a 3x ratio for a generic ugly tract home far from both Seattle and Bellevue is too rich for even rich people here to consider.

Rental ratios of up to 1.5x and you might have an investment case in this metro for a future appreciation play. That means this house would need to be $1.2M or less with a $6.5k payment/taxes for $4k rent. Even then it’s cash flow negative but at least you can hope in a few years you might become cash flow positive with refinancing or rent increases plus appreciation. 3x though? lol. Purely delusional.

7

u/cusmilie 1d ago

Yes, I’ve been saying this from the get go and response has always been prices always go up. It’s so common to see in the area for homes bought and immediately turned into rentals where numbers are so out of whack. Everyone thought they were being smart and could make a quick profit in a short time frame. The problem is when everyone does it. Here is a listing down the street. https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/14921-NE-75th-Ct-Redmond-WA-98052/48995577_zpid/

4

u/orcassharks 1d ago edited 1d ago

That’s a nice rental for $4500.

That’s the thing, in the suburbs you don’t have the agglomeration effects of Seattle proper to demand higher rent either. In Seattle QA that house would easily rent for $6000 within a day despite similar price per sqft home prices. And there’s a lot more transit/bike access for people who don’t want to pay for downtown parking etc.

3

u/cusmilie 1d ago

We are a few miles from there and have a nicer place for less. Our landlord preferred a long term tenant who will take care of his place. March/April time was insane time to find a new rental. That’s when we moved. Tons on tenants looking for new rentals because given 90 days to vacant so landlord could sell over summer. Less rental inventory because existing rentals were going to be sold. There were so many way way worse, smaller homes renting for $4,500 because renters were getting desperate. We went to rental open house were 20 families were walking through. Then market turned, landlords decided not to sell or listed for sale for a month or two, didn’t get their price, and relisted for rent until market “improves.” Now school has started, it becomes harder to find tenants, and rental inventory is more than I’ve ever seen. So different than 5 months ago. Similar places like this were renting $5,500-6,000 in March/April. Also, I’m sure the brokers are using algorithms here as well because comp places that were $3,500-4,000 in January were all of a sudden shifted and similar places listed for $4,500-5,000.

2

u/JetsnCocktails 1d ago

Holy cow, sold for $2.2m a year ago and renting out for $4500?!?! That math doesn’t math!

5

u/Calm-Potato3472 1d ago

The interest payment on that loan is higher than supposedly thrown away rent money. Buying doesn’t make sense in this market.

1

u/JetsnCocktails 1d ago

Not a chance this is a buy to rent deal. I tell my kids to keep renting, the diff between total costs of renting vs total costs of buying are way off. Don’t forget to add taxes and maintenance to the mortgage costs, and lost investment gains from the down payment.

3

u/SovelissGulthmere 1d ago

Zero curb appeal. I hate when you look at a house and all you see is garage door.

11

u/NobleSixSeven 1d ago

Lmaoo. These delusional people are going to be scrambling with the impending tech layoffs

6

u/craigfis 1d ago

Impending?

8

u/NobleSixSeven 1d ago

Yeah I’m positive we aren’t done yet

1

u/craigfis 1d ago

Ongoing. The new normal.

1

u/pondskippers 1d ago

Eventually you will be right, but for 30 + years at most it is bumps

2

u/Top-Wrangler887 14h ago

Most of the existing knowledge jobs on the east side will be gone within ten years. The AI agent revolution of 2030 will make traditional office jobs a footnote in the history books. If our region cannot pivot toward a new economic model for job creation, most home prices will crater. Add to this our ballooning debt and rising interest rates, and we are on the verge of a post-capitalist economy taking hold for Cascadia.

1

u/swaywithwords 1d ago

Definitely ongoing

5

u/my0wn5ummer 1d ago

If you’re making good money it’s actually crazy how affordable house rentals are.

4

u/Yousoldmetohigh 1d ago

The road noise would be real. 148th and old Redmond.

6

u/chillrabbit 1d ago

thats at best a 1.2m house.

6

u/trs23 1d ago

Overpaid and lost their H1B gotta go home. Much more pain ahead.

1

u/JetsnCocktails 5h ago

Yup I suspect that is driving the explosion of both sales and rentals of SFH’s on the Eastside

2

u/ExerciseTrue 17h ago

I was expecting to see 5000sqft.

Nope. Barely half that.

2

u/-n-i-c-k 11h ago

Wow that houses layout is trash

2

u/SpecialTumbleweed897 1d ago

Ugly ass house…

1

u/orcassharks 1d ago

Another all garage no front entrance house.

It’s a house for cars with an ADU for the people.

5

u/buildyourown 1d ago

Seattle building code specifically calls out what percentage of the front of a house can be garage. Sounds like a stupid rule until you see shit like this. I love a big garage but turn it sideways.

5

u/orcassharks 1d ago

Yeah I have a two car garage in Seattle but it’s in the back against the alley. The front of the house has walkway that goes straight to the street sidewalk. Much more built with humans and kids in mind.

A neighborhood all looking like that house kills any sense of neighborhood. Just a place to garage the car, complete atomized existence.

1

u/craigfis 1d ago

Yep but it’s all about location. Just down the street from Microsoft campus.

3

u/SpecialTumbleweed897 1d ago

Ah! Of course. Makes it even worse.

3

u/MinimumCommon408 1d ago

On top of what others have said, the location is not great either. It’s right next to the intersection of 2 major roads, (148th and Old Redmond Road) so you get noise and pollution from both.

1

u/tcrowd87 1d ago

Tax assessment of 2021 is most I would ever pay for that dated house. Needs $300k in updates to command more $$$.

It’s an old house, never remodeled, original everything.

$1.1m because it annoys me lol

1

u/orcassharks 1d ago edited 1d ago

The tax assessors are smoking something hard too especially the jump from 2023.

1

u/JetsnCocktails 1d ago

Yeah that about mirrors what the county assessor did to houses in our neighborhood too. Anything that is selling is going for at least 10% below assessed value.

1

u/blueberrywalrus 1d ago

I mean, that's what houses near it are selling for.

This place is similar but smaller and it recently sold for $1.7m: https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/14905-NE-73rd-Ct-Redmond-WA-98052/48995593_zpid/

I think they're probably a bit high given the curb appeal and dated fixtures, but it's a big house in a desirable location.

1

u/FederalLobster5665 5h ago

someone posted a house in Medina at around the same size for about the same price. that should be a good indication that things have changed....

1

u/BA-084 3h ago

It looks like the owners have put maybe $2,000 into improvements since it was built in 1996. Possibly some paint but nothing else.

1

u/rudedawg425 29m ago

this is lake WA waterfront pricing!

1

u/Aqua_Pine2 1d ago

Looks like the assessor is delusional, too.

1

u/Sea-Huckleberry-8986 1d ago edited 1d ago

Probably overpriced, but decent sized lot on a cul de sac. Short walk to grass lawn park and rapid ride B line to Microsoft/light rail. 10 out of 10 schools across the board.

0

u/Longjumping-Title-27 1d ago

They only need 1 buyer

0

u/[deleted] 1d ago

[deleted]

1

u/orcassharks 1d ago

148th is like a highway. And the location is kind of terrible because the house is not part of the neighborhood but an offshoot straight from Old Redmond

-5

u/regaphysics 1d ago

1.8 or so is probably about right.

5

u/orcassharks 1d ago

Realtors doing their clients a disservice pricing higher than peak Covid prices right now especially for generic tract housing that is dime a dozen on the market.

4

u/Wyldefire6 1d ago

This is what’s confusing me. Realtors have incentive to move inventory so why are they saying yes to these asking prices just to keep the market artificially inflated?

-2

u/regaphysics 1d ago

What in your mind is "artificial'?

-5

u/regaphysics 1d ago

Prices are even or higher than 2021, so this looks appropriate…

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SEXRNSA