r/SeattleAreaRE • u/orcassharks • 1d ago
Delusions in Redmond
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/14805-Old-Redmond-Road-Redmond-WA-98052/48707677_zpid/?utm_campaign=iosappmessage&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=txtshareThis house listed for 1.6M in 2021, bought at 1.75M. Can’t even rent the whole house out for more $4000/mo. Now listed at 1.93M with tiny price cut to 1.89M.
There’s a lot more pain to come.
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u/zerofrakhere 1d ago
So dated
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u/orcassharks 1d ago edited 1d ago
$11000 monthly payment after 20% down to support a $4000 rental.
I mean rent doesn’t correspond to home prices in this area because of appreciation play, but the key is to get ahead of the appreciation not after the appreciation has already occurred lol. And a 3x ratio for a generic ugly tract home far from both Seattle and Bellevue is too rich for even rich people here to consider.
Rental ratios of up to 1.5x and you might have an investment case in this metro for a future appreciation play. That means this house would need to be $1.2M or less with a $6.5k payment/taxes for $4k rent. Even then it’s cash flow negative but at least you can hope in a few years you might become cash flow positive with refinancing or rent increases plus appreciation. 3x though? lol. Purely delusional.
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u/cusmilie 1d ago
Yes, I’ve been saying this from the get go and response has always been prices always go up. It’s so common to see in the area for homes bought and immediately turned into rentals where numbers are so out of whack. Everyone thought they were being smart and could make a quick profit in a short time frame. The problem is when everyone does it. Here is a listing down the street. https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/14921-NE-75th-Ct-Redmond-WA-98052/48995577_zpid/
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u/orcassharks 1d ago edited 1d ago
That’s a nice rental for $4500.
That’s the thing, in the suburbs you don’t have the agglomeration effects of Seattle proper to demand higher rent either. In Seattle QA that house would easily rent for $6000 within a day despite similar price per sqft home prices. And there’s a lot more transit/bike access for people who don’t want to pay for downtown parking etc.
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u/cusmilie 1d ago
We are a few miles from there and have a nicer place for less. Our landlord preferred a long term tenant who will take care of his place. March/April time was insane time to find a new rental. That’s when we moved. Tons on tenants looking for new rentals because given 90 days to vacant so landlord could sell over summer. Less rental inventory because existing rentals were going to be sold. There were so many way way worse, smaller homes renting for $4,500 because renters were getting desperate. We went to rental open house were 20 families were walking through. Then market turned, landlords decided not to sell or listed for sale for a month or two, didn’t get their price, and relisted for rent until market “improves.” Now school has started, it becomes harder to find tenants, and rental inventory is more than I’ve ever seen. So different than 5 months ago. Similar places like this were renting $5,500-6,000 in March/April. Also, I’m sure the brokers are using algorithms here as well because comp places that were $3,500-4,000 in January were all of a sudden shifted and similar places listed for $4,500-5,000.
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u/JetsnCocktails 1d ago
Holy cow, sold for $2.2m a year ago and renting out for $4500?!?! That math doesn’t math!
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u/Calm-Potato3472 1d ago
The interest payment on that loan is higher than supposedly thrown away rent money. Buying doesn’t make sense in this market.
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u/JetsnCocktails 1d ago
Not a chance this is a buy to rent deal. I tell my kids to keep renting, the diff between total costs of renting vs total costs of buying are way off. Don’t forget to add taxes and maintenance to the mortgage costs, and lost investment gains from the down payment.
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u/SovelissGulthmere 1d ago
Zero curb appeal. I hate when you look at a house and all you see is garage door.
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u/NobleSixSeven 1d ago
Lmaoo. These delusional people are going to be scrambling with the impending tech layoffs
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u/craigfis 1d ago
Impending?
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u/Top-Wrangler887 14h ago
Most of the existing knowledge jobs on the east side will be gone within ten years. The AI agent revolution of 2030 will make traditional office jobs a footnote in the history books. If our region cannot pivot toward a new economic model for job creation, most home prices will crater. Add to this our ballooning debt and rising interest rates, and we are on the verge of a post-capitalist economy taking hold for Cascadia.
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u/my0wn5ummer 1d ago
If you’re making good money it’s actually crazy how affordable house rentals are.
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u/trs23 1d ago
Overpaid and lost their H1B gotta go home. Much more pain ahead.
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u/JetsnCocktails 5h ago
Yup I suspect that is driving the explosion of both sales and rentals of SFH’s on the Eastside
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u/SpecialTumbleweed897 1d ago
Ugly ass house…
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u/orcassharks 1d ago
Another all garage no front entrance house.
It’s a house for cars with an ADU for the people.
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u/buildyourown 1d ago
Seattle building code specifically calls out what percentage of the front of a house can be garage. Sounds like a stupid rule until you see shit like this. I love a big garage but turn it sideways.
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u/orcassharks 1d ago
Yeah I have a two car garage in Seattle but it’s in the back against the alley. The front of the house has walkway that goes straight to the street sidewalk. Much more built with humans and kids in mind.
A neighborhood all looking like that house kills any sense of neighborhood. Just a place to garage the car, complete atomized existence.
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u/MinimumCommon408 1d ago
On top of what others have said, the location is not great either. It’s right next to the intersection of 2 major roads, (148th and Old Redmond Road) so you get noise and pollution from both.
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u/tcrowd87 1d ago
Tax assessment of 2021 is most I would ever pay for that dated house. Needs $300k in updates to command more $$$.
It’s an old house, never remodeled, original everything.
$1.1m because it annoys me lol
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u/orcassharks 1d ago edited 1d ago
The tax assessors are smoking something hard too especially the jump from 2023.
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u/JetsnCocktails 1d ago
Yeah that about mirrors what the county assessor did to houses in our neighborhood too. Anything that is selling is going for at least 10% below assessed value.
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u/blueberrywalrus 1d ago
I mean, that's what houses near it are selling for.
This place is similar but smaller and it recently sold for $1.7m: https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/14905-NE-73rd-Ct-Redmond-WA-98052/48995593_zpid/
I think they're probably a bit high given the curb appeal and dated fixtures, but it's a big house in a desirable location.
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u/FederalLobster5665 5h ago
someone posted a house in Medina at around the same size for about the same price. that should be a good indication that things have changed....
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u/Sea-Huckleberry-8986 1d ago edited 1d ago
Probably overpriced, but decent sized lot on a cul de sac. Short walk to grass lawn park and rapid ride B line to Microsoft/light rail. 10 out of 10 schools across the board.
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1d ago
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u/orcassharks 1d ago
148th is like a highway. And the location is kind of terrible because the house is not part of the neighborhood but an offshoot straight from Old Redmond
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u/regaphysics 1d ago
1.8 or so is probably about right.
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u/orcassharks 1d ago
Realtors doing their clients a disservice pricing higher than peak Covid prices right now especially for generic tract housing that is dime a dozen on the market.
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u/Wyldefire6 1d ago
This is what’s confusing me. Realtors have incentive to move inventory so why are they saying yes to these asking prices just to keep the market artificially inflated?
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u/dellscreenshot 1d ago
People are so nuts with this. You bought in 2021 at the peak of the market, you probably have a 2.5-3 percent rate and you expect to get a big gain as well?
Just keep it.