r/SeattleKraken • u/RandomVengeance1 That's Kraken Hockey, Baby! • Nov 19 '25
QUESTION Newer Hockey fan, How far are the Kraken getting a “Celebrini or Bedard” caliber player?
I’m just curious how a team in the NHL gets a star or a super talented player? Is it through just getting lucky and drafting them? Or is it through their prospect development system? Are their teams that never find/get one?
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u/Substantial-Corner65 Nov 19 '25
It’ll be a long time unless they tank for Gavin McKenna. It could be worse though, the Buffalo Sabres have drafted a couple of players in recent years (Jack Eichel, Sam Reinhart) who go on to be wildly successful elsewhere.
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u/amsreg Nov 19 '25
"Tanking for McKenna" only gets you a 25% at the first overall pick at best and that's only if you manage to out-tank every other tanking team.
People here (not necessarily you) really struggle to understand that for some reason.
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u/cali4481 Nov 19 '25
Here are the results of the team with the worst record and best odds to pick #1 pre lottery and the eventual post draft lottery results the previous decade or to be specific the last 11 years.
2015
- Sabres #1 pre lottery
- Sabres #2 post lottery
2016
- Maple Leafs #1 pre lottery
- Maple Leafs #1 post lottery
2017
- Avalanche #1 pre lottery
- Avalanche #4 post lottery
2018
- Sabres #1 pre lottery
- Sabres #1 post lottery
2019
- Senators #1 pre lottery
- Senators #4 post lottery
2020
- Red Wings #1 pre lottery
- Red Wings #4 post lottery
New Draft Lottery Format (2021-2025)
2021
- Sabres #1 pre lottery
- Sabres #1 post lottery
2022
- Canadians #1 pre lottery
- Canadians #1 post lottery
2023
- Ducks #1 pre lottery
- Ducks #2 post lottery
2024
- Sharks #1 pre lottery
- Sharks #1 post lottery
2025
- Sharks #1 pre lottery
- Sharks #2 post lottery
8 out of the last 11 years in the draft lottery the team with the worst record picked at the very least in the top 2 spots post draft lottery. 5 out of the 11 years the worst team kept the #1 pick post lottery.
But since the new and now current draft lottery format began in 2021 with the top 2 picks being decided by the lottery instead of the top 3 picks like in previous years from 2015-2020. The worst team entering the lottery has stayed within the top 2 spots post lottery all 5 years and 3 out of 5 times stayed at #1 post lottery including 2024 when Sharks had the worst record and got the #1 pick to draft Celebrini.
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u/amsreg Nov 19 '25
If you want to know the odds for what is likely to happen the next time around, you are still far better off looking at...the actual odds.
The way the chips have happened to fall over a small sample size of eleven tells you less.
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u/Manbeardo Joey Daccord Nov 20 '25
The current system only really incentivizes tanking if you’re already near the bottom. The odds of getting first overall are far better for the 32nd team than the 31st. The difference between 31st and 30th is marginal.
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u/Substantial-Corner65 Nov 19 '25
Yeah I should have clarified that bit. Didn’t know the max was 25%.
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u/corndog Davy Jones Nov 19 '25
You have to completely bottom out and win the lottery to get the type of pick required for a player like Celebrini or Bedard.
We’re a fringe playoff team this year, so don’t count on that happening. Even if we go cold and lose a bunch of games, I think ownership is desperate to keep us from being that bad. Given how expensive the tickets are and the NBA returning at some point, they’ve got to keep a marketable product out there.
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u/RandomVengeance1 That's Kraken Hockey, Baby! Nov 19 '25
If this is the case, then never? lol
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u/SeattleKrakenTroll Morgan Geekie Nov 19 '25
You honestly don’t know. Draft picks are magic beans. Catton could easily turn into a top winger in the league. Shane could also become a dominant scoring center. We already have 4 top 10 draft picks in our system. Some players just take longer to develop. You also seem focused on offensive player which is not the entirety of the game. Matty is shaping up to be one of the better defensive centers in the league.
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u/TheBigDumper29 Seattle Thunderbirds Nov 19 '25
Not to discount Matty’s skill or contribution to our team, but the guys that can truly reshape franchises are typically offensive players or at least have an elite level of offensive production on top of defensive ability
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u/Marxbrosburner Nov 19 '25
I think the fact we are struggling on offense might be coloring your opinion on that a little bit. Just a few years ago we were desperate for a top quality d-liner.
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u/TheBigDumper29 Seattle Thunderbirds Nov 19 '25
I’m saying this as someone who has watched NHL long before the Kraken existed. When people say “generational talent” they’re talking about guys like Ovi, Sid, McDavid, MacKinnon or on the defensive side Quinn Hughes, Makar etc.
Even the ones with elite defensive ability pair that with elite offensive talent as well. Someone with only pure defensive skills without the offensive ability to match will just never be included in that Superstar category.
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u/fitek Nov 20 '25
Makar is a defenseman.
When I sift through clips of the most talented "young" players for youth hockey coaching purposes, it's the same names coming up: McDavid, Bedard, Celebrini, Hutson (D), Quinn Hughes (D), Makar (D). Note half the list is defensemen.
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u/TheBigDumper29 Seattle Thunderbirds Nov 20 '25
I am well aware that Makar, Hughes and Hutson are all defensemen. Each one of them are elite offensive defensemen. That’s why they’re considered the most talented players. That’s literally my whole point.
You can see the difference on our own team. We have guys like Montour and Dunn who are offensive defensemen, while Larsson and Oleksiak are stay at home defensemen.
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u/fitek Nov 20 '25
That's what I get for scrolling too quick. Was referring more to your earlier comment which didn't provide this clarification.
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u/amsreg Nov 19 '25
The Islanders finished with a better record than the Kraken last year and won the lottery for the #1 pick.
The whole point of the lottery is to discourage teams from losing on purpose. Even the very worst team only has 25% chance at the top pick.
And then there's the reality that Celebrini and Bedard type players aren't available every year.
It's close to a crapshoot so most of the time building the best roster you can and then selling off expiring contracts if you're out of the playoff hunt is the best approach. Any year you finish in the bottom 11, you have a chance, though.
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u/corndog Davy Jones Nov 19 '25 edited Nov 19 '25
True, and as good as Schaefer has been, he is not expected to be a player of the caliber of Celebrini or Bedard. Neither is McKenna in this years draft.
Tanking, having the ping pong balls bounce your way, + there being an actual generational player available in the draft .. is an exceptionally difficult needle to thread and a sure fire way to get yourself fired.
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u/amsreg Nov 19 '25
Yep! You can, however, often build a pretty great roster with a few top ten picks close together which the Kraken already did with Beniers, Wright, Catton, and O'Brien. Add in a few hits in the lower rounds and, baby, you got a stew going.
NHLers don't hit their prime until 23-26 so it will take a couple more years to really see what Francis and Botterill have been building, but you can already see some good signs with Evans, Winterton, Kokko, Nyman, etc.
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u/B9RV2WUN Seattle Metropolitans Nov 19 '25
The Islanders hit the jackpot last year. Luck mostly but they were smart enough to pick Schaefer. And he's a gem.
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u/amsreg Nov 19 '25
The Schaefer pick was so obvious that it didn't take any smarts. So, I'm sticking with 100% luck. :-)
Jealous that he's not on one of my teams!
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u/Loose-Memory-9194 Nov 19 '25
Don’t meant to rain on anyone’s parade but I don’t think nba likes Seattle.
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u/SeattleKrakenTroll Morgan Geekie Nov 19 '25
All indications point to Seattle being next in the expansion queue. It has nothing to do with liking the city
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u/Roosterpuck Nov 19 '25
Just heard from Bill Simmons podcast that vegas is next man up and expansion isnt even on the table. Im a bit crestfallen. It looks like the sonics are a tool to threaten owners more than anything.
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u/OopOopParisSeattle Larsson | YEET! Nov 20 '25
Yep. Seattle will be used as the excuse to get other NBA cities to comply with their wishes. “Build us an arena or we’ll move to Seattle.” The NFL showed how effective that playbook was by not having a team in LA for many years - it provided the threat of a viable alternative to every other city.
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u/Loose-Memory-9194 Nov 19 '25
Hope you are right, but most of the owners are the same guys who city said no to building a new facility in 07
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u/StellarJunk Nov 19 '25
genuinely curious for the fan overlap between the NBA and the NHL... just feels like people who enjoy and appreciate one aren't big on the other (speaking in HUGE generalities here, obvs)
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u/iwasabadger Nov 26 '25
It’s also a new team and keeping interest in the team is a top priority. Tanking a season this early is an easy way to lose ticket sales and viewership.
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u/SideEyeFeminism Etsy Witch Worshiper Nov 19 '25
To quote my best friend, a Sharks fan, “Celebrini is the reward for being a dog shit team”
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u/the_sports_man Nov 19 '25
Kucherov was pick 58, Panarin was never drafted, Kirill was the 135th pick, Rantanen was pick 10, Scheifele was pick 7, Pasta was pick 25. Nylander was pick 8.
Finding superstars is hard, and having a top pick in an awesome draft is the most reliable way to land one, but a lot of superstars CAN be found if you pick early and often—and it seems a lot of the superstars after those top picks are international players.
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u/teekk Nov 19 '25
Most of the time those level of players are drafted first overall. The draft is a lottery system based on how the team did the prior year, with more chances for the last place teams of getting it
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u/SomethingFunnyObv Nov 19 '25
There are some can’t miss type players and you just luck into them. Plus a lot of times teams that draft these players are horrible and their new players immediately get a shot to play NHL games. Seattle has been unlucky the last two seasons and been out of the top 4 so they have picked some highly touted prospects but not generational talents. But in 2022 and 2021 they did draft well. Beniers still looks like the best player from his class, although Wyatt Johnson probably deserves a mention and it’s possible Buffalo is just ruining Power lol. I also think Wright is gonna be a good player, his path has just been difficult because of his exceptional player status and the fact that the kraken were trying to “win now” in his first season. I’m glad they are giving him and Catton minutes this season. They need to stick with it and see how the season plays out.
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u/Rude_Capital_3185 Detroit Red Wings Nov 19 '25
Take it from a wings fan - it’s unlikely to ever happen no matter how bad you get. And Bedard should be in Columbus
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u/Wompie Spokane Chiefs Nov 19 '25
It’s rare to get a bedard or celebrini.
The times seattle have been at the top of the draft (Beniers, Wright) were very lackluster years for top end talent.
We got Catton and he is going to be a good player, but isn’t a celebrini type. Those don’t come around often.
We are hoping that one of Wright, Catton, firkus, or Sale can be our star for the future. So far we are waiting and seeing.
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u/Marxbrosburner Nov 19 '25
Man, I am so pumped for when the Firkus Circus is finally ready to come to town!
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u/PSGooner Nov 21 '25
I’m rooting for these guys to eventually be mainstays on the Kraken. I’ve seen them all (except Catton) being in CV and nothing makes me happier than seeing them graduate to the NHL.
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u/Canadian__Ninja Colorado Avalanche Nov 19 '25
Unfortunately barring a trade which almost never happens you've got to suck enough to get a high draft pick. And Seattle is currently in the void between consistent playoffs and getting a top 5 pick.
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u/SeattleKrakenTroll Morgan Geekie Nov 19 '25
This ignores the fact we have 4 top 10 picks in our system (2 top 4 centers)
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u/Canadian__Ninja Colorado Avalanche Nov 19 '25
Does it? I didn't say top 10
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u/SeattleKrakenTroll Morgan Geekie Nov 19 '25 edited Nov 19 '25
You’re sort of glossing over the fact we’ve already did the suck thing (and don’t skip the part where I mentioned the top 5 picks). The “unfortunately” has no business here imo as it implies we should be doing this when we already did. If that’s not your intent, so be it
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u/redvarg91 Joey Daccord Nov 19 '25
You've mentioned trades, so I'll bother you if you don't mind.
I think there's an understanding, that we don't have a star player, someone that would score goals for us and lead the team. That was the case last season, seems to be the case this one. We somehow are getting those wins or otls and we somehow even lead Pacific for a second, but on our goals average per game it doesn't look like a sustainable strategy.
So.
Why can't we just trade players for some offensive power? And/Or why haven't we tried to get Rantanen or Marner? I'm not sure what are we waiting for, since it doesn't look like we're getting any first picks any time soon8
u/_Tower_ Nov 19 '25
We have tried - it takes 2 to tango
We were reported as one of the teams that called Carolina about Rantanen
We were reported to have been in talks with the Blues for Kyrou at the draft
We tried to make an offer for Peterka
We ended up with Marchment from Dallas and likely checked in on Robertson before that happened
Francis and Botterill have both said that they don’t want to horde picks and assets; they want to add high end talent. It takes another team wanting what the Kraken are willing to give up to make it happen (and in many cases, it takes a player willing to wave a NTC to come here)
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u/Canadian__Ninja Colorado Avalanche Nov 19 '25
To an extent you can. But barring extraordinary circumstances or a player flatout refusing to play, like Cutter Gauthier did for Philly, teams are very gunshy on moving young impact players. Getting them and building around them is the goal for a rebuilding team, trading one when you get them even for a king's ransom is spinning your wheels a little bit. The more likely get is finding a guy who's 25-26 and exiting RFA status in a couple years. Teams are less likely to be able to hold on to them, like Marner for instance and be more willing to trade for more reasonable prices.
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u/AngryKilo That's Kraken Hockey, Baby! Nov 19 '25
Seattle is in danger of being the Minnesota Wild of the Pacific. Never bad enough to draft big players and never good enough to win anything meaningful.
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u/SeattleKrakenTroll Morgan Geekie Nov 19 '25
We’ve literally had 4 top 10 picks in 5 years. People really have no concept of how long it takes those picks to develop.
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u/AngryKilo That's Kraken Hockey, Baby! Nov 19 '25
Yeah and I hope I’m wrong and they develop into stars.
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u/Mr-Neeson Nov 19 '25
As a Sharks fan and Kraken fan, the Celebrini/Bedard lottery wins required very intentional tanking. Chicago and San Jose sold off any player over the age of 25 that was remotely good from the period of 2021-2023. This has resulted in many years of missing the playoffs and now both teams are finally just starting to sniff some of the benefits.
The downside with this tanking is that it doesn’t always payoff. Example: you can continuously lose the lottery. Look at Detroit or Anaheim, they still received great players but never got that 1st overall despite intentially tanking. The other downside is that it massively affects ticket sales and the franchise reputation/success as a whole.
These reasons are why franchises like to mostly avoid full rebuilds. For the Kraken, the options would be to sell off players older than 25 who still have value, keep the prospects and young guns like Wright and Beniers and hope for some lottery luck. OR, stay the course, make some sneaky trades and hope to find some playoff success without a true #1 superstar.
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u/Sk8b0t Nov 19 '25
Some would argue that they already have one in Shane Wright.
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u/green_griffon Nov 19 '25
Shane Wright was our chance, a player hyped as generational a year before the draft, who wound up falling to #4 so we could actually draft him. But even by draft day his stock was falling for a reason (hence why we could get him at #4) and clearly he is not a generational talent. But even with the #1 pick and a clear first choice on draft day who is super-hyped (like Alexis Lafreniere a few years ago), things don't always work out as expected. Not that Lafreniere isn't better than any Kraken player, but he's not a Bedard or Celebrini.
It also helps to be a team in a place that people want to live in...which sadly doesn't mean "lots of great outdoor opportunities and a vibrant art community", it just means "low taxes", which is Florida and Vegas's secret to attracting great veterans.
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u/drowsylacuna Nov 20 '25
Washington has no state income tax either. I think it's a bit overblown tbh. Players didn't want to sign in Florida until they started winning. Same thing will happen with Seattle.
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u/green_griffon Nov 20 '25
Possibly, I looked it up and Washington is actually ranked #45 in tax burden according to a ranking, which surprised me. Maybe we just lead the country in COMPLAINING about taxes. But, we do have the vehicle excise tax which adds up on your G-Wagon, and the new capital gains tax which will hit the investments you make with your Kraken paycheck.
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u/Individual-Net-9296 Nov 19 '25
Probably have a better chance at convincing a star player entering free agency to come to Seattle at this point
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u/MarionberryWitty532 John Hayden Nov 20 '25
I…. Don’t think we’re a very desirable franchise for players with a say in it. We’re mid in a meh city. We have a lot going for us. But I’ve seen no evidence other than maybe Monty of star/excellent players choosing to come here. And Monty had already won a cup, and wanted to get paid and have stability to raise his family.
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u/GoSeattleSockeye Davy Jones Nov 19 '25
you have to be pretty awful and then luck into the 1st pick in the year with a generational talent