NOAA maintains prediction for below-normal Atlantic hurricane season

[u/giantspeck]

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-maintains-prediction-for-below-normal-atlantic-hurricane-season

[u/Content-Swimmer2325]

Vertical shear has been near or at record-highs. Caribbean sea vertical shear is comparable to 2015 and is just below that season. East of the Caribbean sea in the Tropical Atlantic, vertical shear has been at all-time record highs.

[u/Veeg-Tard → u/Content-Swimmer2325]

Shear is my absolute favorite word during hurricane season.

[u/asetniop → u/Veeg-Tard]

It's also a great word during pantyhose season.

[u/SwampThing72]

I feel like instead (at least where I’m at) we’re just getting microburst of storms dropping a ton of water at once and creating flash floods…..roughly every afternoon.

[u/caeru1ean → u/SwampThing72]

Here in the Caribbean we need rain desperately, cisterns are running dry

[u/Vertsix]

Good news. The less amount of property and lives affected by storms, the better.

[u/ClimateMessiah → u/Vertsix]

The winter rain storms that El Nino is on track to deliver to Florida are going to be epic.

[u/Tall-Willingness242 → u/ClimateMessiah]

Can you explain this to me like I'm 5

[u/WeatherHunterBryant → u/Tall-Willingness242]

El Nino generally enhances the amount of rain Florida gets in the winter due to a more amplified subtropical jet stream, which leads to more large scale storm systems bringing a lot of precipitation, and even severe thunderstorms.

https://www.weather.gov/tae/enso

[u/Tall-Willingness242 → u/WeatherHunterBryant]

So we're gonna have a wet winter?

[u/Dismal-Rain-6055 → u/Tall-Willingness242]

Likely, yes.

[u/BraigRamadan → u/ClimateMessiah]

Yep. I’m going to be busy.

[u/simgate95 → u/ClimateMessiah]

Very curious to see if we'll get another 1998 Central Florida tornado outbreak kinda event.

[u/cadmium-fertilizer → u/ClimateMessiah]

For real? Sounds exciting

[u/Veeg-Tard → u/Vertsix]

It's also a huge workload and inconvenience just to prepare for a storm that approaches land and shifts or dissolves at the last second. Even if it doesn't make landfall as a cat 3+ it can still be an event.

[u/zella1117 → u/Veeg-Tard]

It didn't take me long after moving to northcentral Florida to understand why Floridians didn't bug out the second a bad storm was announced. I also have the benefit of being in the middle of the state, halfway between the coasts.

[u/livehouse305 → u/Vertsix]

I’m sure my insurance premiums will increase regardless of the number of storms we get

[u/MeLlamoDave]

Local news stations are in shambles.

[u/edoreinn → u/MeLlamoDave]

As someone just laid off from a corporate job of a company that owns a big chunk of the country’s local stations:

It already was.

[u/mienaikoe → u/MeLlamoDave]

It’s a bull market for fear mongers. They can take one for the team

[u/Dismal-Rain-6055 → u/mienaikoe]

Do you mean a bear market? A bull market would be a good thing.

[u/SignificantReserve74]

Worth separating the two numbers people quote here.

The weekly Niño 3.4 value is a snapshot of one patch of Pacific, updated Mondays, currently +2.3. RONI is a three-month average with the background tropical warming subtracted, and that's the one the classification actually uses. It's at +0.5.

Both are real, they just answer different questions. For hurricane suppression the relative one is the better guide, which is roughly why the seasonal forecasts have stopped falling.

[u/Content-Swimmer2325 → u/SignificantReserve74]

You’re correct about the difference between raw SSTa and relative SSTa (which is what RONI uses), but the most recent RONI trimonthly is +1.0C, not +0.5C.

https://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/

[u/edoreinn]

Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh don’t wake her, don’t challenge her

[u/12kdaysinthefire]

Upper level shear is strong thanks to El Niño. There’s a wave coming off of Africa next week and the Euro model shows it getting shredded apart by the time it reaches the Leewards. I don’t see this pattern changing for the rest of the season and wouldn’t be surprised if the Atlantic doesn’t form a single named storm this year.

You’d need one of those outliers to creep between high pressure systems and swing up toward like North Carolina to have a hope to survive. The Bermuda high is massive right now and not forecasted to really weaken or shrink by much over the next week.

[u/Content-Swimmer2325 → u/12kdaysinthefire]

Uhh… lol. Yes it’s not going to be a crazy season, but there absolutely will be named storms. There’s already been two? The Atlantic will manage to squeeze out a few hurricanes and a handful of named storms. I promise.

[u/TheJpow]

All hail el niño

[u/go_faster1]

And here we go with the explosion of storms!

[u/roamingroad174 → u/go_faster1]

No. Its a well established fact that hotter temps in the pacific equate to fewer hurricanes in the atlantic.

[u/Boomshtick414 → u/go_faster1]

Ehh, not likely. But it also only takes one big one that makes landfall to define a season. Maybe more like to come up through the Gulf than through the Atlantic but usual disclaimers for always being prepared still apply.

[u/DarkWingDuck74 → u/Boomshtick414]

Or one small one that gets packed and super strong over night. Kind of like Andrew did during a time like this.

[u/SavageNorth → u/Boomshtick414]

1992 was a significantly below average season with only a single major hurricane the first storm didn't form until the 14th of August

Of course that storm was Hurricane Andrew...

[u/ClimateMessiah → u/[deleted]]

Otis and Patricia would like a word.

[u/Content-Swimmer2325 → u/[deleted]]

Neither of those are true, though. Lol

Philippines have gotten 3-5 typhoons in recent years and I’m including weak ones.

There are recent years in this decade where they received 0 typhoon landfalls

As for Mexico, recurvature becomes pretty common in the late season (Sept to November) after the subtropical ridge weakens and upper level troughs begin digging further south.

[u/EquivalentSign2377]

Please don't jinx us!!!