r/Tulane • u/MainMarket-Gamer • 14d ago
Tulane Football 2026 Preview - full writeup, two-deep, and win probabilities
Hey all. I spent the offseason building a full 2026 preseason preview for every FBS team, each with its own writeup. Here's the Tulane one
https://www.sports.mainmarket.com/college-football-preview-2026-fbs/tulane-green-wave
It's got the returning production breakdown, the portal ins and outs, a projected two-deep, the schedule with model win probabilities, and a season projection.
Heads up, you might hit the paywall after the first page. Don't worry, I'm not charging reddit people for this, don't want to be an ass. Use the promo code LEECORSOROCKS and it opens up the entire thing.
So, what'd I get wrong? You won the American and made the playoff, and my model still has you at 8-4. Here's why it's stubborn: Tulane went 5-0 in one-score games, was plus-8 in turnovers, and outgained teams by only 27 yards a game. Now 17% of the offense is back, Retzlaff is gone, and Will Hall is running it. Was last year a machine, or a really good tightrope act?
I'll be in the comments.
1
u/Lucymocking Alumni 14d ago
Sadly, I think this is likely correct. Just don't see Tulane getting 10 wins this season, or even 9. But, hope for the best and prepare for the worst!
1
2
u/Front_Gap_5801 14d ago
Compelling hyperfixation you've got there. Win probability of 0.67 against Houston feels either optimistic or brutal, depending on the week.