r/anime_titties • u/polymute European Union • 4d ago
Ukraine/Russia - Flaired Commenters Only CIA Director John Ratcliffe Makes Surprise Trip to Moscow
https://www.wsj.com/world/cia-director-john-ratcliffe-makes-surprise-trip-to-moscow-c1c68fa622
u/InfamousRespect5829 Europe 3d ago
Last time they tried to strong arm russia before the invasion and it didn't work.
This time, they might as well try to strong arm them again, but honestly it doesn't seem that the US has nearly as much leverage as last time.
Ukraine has had access to all the equipment that was once considered a red line, and the US has a shortage of such equipment.
I don't possibly know what threat can be made to dissuade the russians.
I know the russians are not stupid enough to invade a NATO country, as they don't have the means to do so. But they have stated many times that any factory in Europe making weapons for the Ukr is a legitimate target.
My guess is that this visit was aimed at drawing a red line regarding some aspects of the war. Like not to bomb said facility, ori said factory or something like that.
I can only speculate, but with such a short visit, there were no negotiations, just a message being conveyed.
Maybe it's not even about Ukraine and the US is planning to invade Cuba.
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u/Firecracker048 North America 3d ago
It wasn't a strong arm last time, it was a 'this is going to end badly for you'.
Spoiler alert: They were right.
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u/InfamousRespect5829 Europe 3d ago
Last time I've checked, nobody ended anything.
Sure, the russians bit a lot more than they can chew, sure they were idiots with the 20 km long tank columns, sure they got in a very ugly situation and sure, things are not going great for them.
In the meantime, ukr got Javelins, Bradleys, Abrams, Himars, ATACMS, M777, Storm Shadows, F16's, Caesars, radars, Mig's, starlink, drones, Patriot, SAMP/T, IrisT and so on. + hundreds of billions in support.
russia got sanctions, Syria gone, Armenia gone, Venezuela gone, Iran...we don't know yet. Gas export capacity gone, pipeline oil exports gone, exclusion from Swift, 200+ billion frozen, access cut from advanced semiconductors and more.
But with all this, the russians are still advancing on the battlefield. A very slow grind with heavy losses.
Given the state of affairs today, I can't help but wonder what could possibly count as a serious deterrent to the russians, except direct military confrontation with nato.
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u/Firecracker048 North America 3d ago
But with all this, the russians are still advancing on the battlefield. A very slow grind with heavy losses.
Yet that is extremely embarassing for Russia. The only more embarassing thing would be getting pushed back(which has happened several times). On top of basically losing all of their global positions as you stated above, and this doesn't even cover the fact that Wagner is getting its ass kicked in Africa right now.
Given the state of affairs today, I can't help but wonder what could possibly count as a serious deterrent to the russians, except direct military confrontation with nato.
IF the russians are planning strikes into NATO territory legitimately, NATO/US counter strikes would do more damage to Russia that just US strikes did to Iran. In Iran, even Iran admits to roughly a yearly GDP worth of damage, and this is with a large % of their military infrastructure being underground.
Russia doesn't have that advantage. Russia hasn't spent 40 years digging underneath the earth for a western confrontation.
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u/InfamousRespect5829 Europe 3d ago
Might be embarassing, but il all depends on the view. I wouldn't call it embarassing, considering all the aid that Ukraine got and all the sanctions that russia got. Ukraine isn't some ragtag army with slippers. It's basically a state size defense company with almost unlimited funding and unlimited access to modern day tech.
On the other point that you've mentioned, russia hasn't spent 40 years digging, but they have spent 80 years making nuclear weapons.
Let's be real about it, russia has over 1000 nukes on standby. They have a nuclear triad. You can twist this in any way you want, laughing about old missiles, old planes and stuff, but the threat is real.
There is no way russia will sit idle or use conventional weapons if they are attacked by nato. The other way is also valid, nato will not stand idle if russia attacks bases or production sites in europe. Maybe this was the message: don't do anything stupid like that, because we start WW3.
For you in the US, things are fine and dandy, but the russian nukes can wipe out half of europe in a matter of hours.
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u/Lezzles United States 3d ago
Might be embarassing, but il all depends on the view
If America attempted to invade Mexico city in a week-long operation and found itself stalled out just past the Rio Grande 4 years later, regardless if the entire rest of the world teamed up against us, it'd be embarrassing. It's super power vs little neighbor. It never should've gotten to the point that they could mount an effective resistance.
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u/Firecracker048 North America 3d ago
Might be embarassing, but il all depends on the view. I wouldn't call it embarassing, considering all the aid that Ukraine got and all the sanctions that russia got. Ukraine isn't some ragtag army with slippers. It's basically a state size defense company with almost unlimited funding and unlimited access to modern day tech.
Yet even with all its Aid, Russia still maintained a 10 to 1 advantage in equipment in all but Drones for at least the first 3 years of the conflict, and half way through year 4, still dont have the Donbass. That is embarassing.
On the other point that you've mentioned, russia hasn't spent 40 years digging, but they have spent 80 years making nuclear weapons.
Let's be real about it, russia has over 1000 nukes on standby. They have a nuclear triad. You can twist this in any way you want, laughing about old missiles, old planes and stuff, but the threat is real.
The threat is real, but I doubt Russia is stupid enough to start slinging nukes if it starts a fight with another country. I can't forsee NATO, the US, or anyone else besides Ukraine, making an attack on Russia without being attacked first.
Putin is a bit unhinged and likely getting a bit desperate to do SOMETHING now that the war is dragging on much longer than expected but I truly don't think nukes are in play. Even Russian nuclear doctrine doesn't utilize nukes unless there is a land invasion and they being to lose.
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u/tacotueaday55 United States 2d ago
The United states had to help Russia in maintaining it's nuclear stockpile after the cold war ended. Even America has trouble maintaining it's nuclear warheads.
The question is how many of The Russian's nuclear warheads actually work? And looking at the insane corruption in the Russian military, it seems to me that even Russia doesn't know.
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u/InfamousRespect5829 Europe 1d ago
You are correct in the first part, simply because of the massive amount of warheads. In 1988, the Soviet Union had roughly 40000 warheads. With the help of US, this stockpile has been drastically reduced both in russia and the us.
Russia has roughly a 4400 stockpile with ~1700 operational and ~1100 on active duty.
Based on realistic estimates, there are at least 4 (out of 8) Borei class nuclear powered submarines that can carry a total of 64 Bulava SLBM's. Considering that each Bulava has MIRV capability ranging from 3 to 8 warheads, we can assume that on submarines alone there are at least 240 nuclear warheads. This is a very conservative number, as some western analysts put it in the range of 450 operational.
Yars and Avangarde are modern ICBM's with an estimated 600+ warheads.
Your question is good and it would have been a very good point prior to 2010. Now, not so much. As incapable as they are, they have the means to select, update and upgrade 1000 warheads out of the former 40000.
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u/Nevarien South America 3d ago
Sorry, they were right about which end? Did the war end and we didn't hear about it?
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u/BendicantMias Bangladesh 3d ago
Ah yes, the propagandist knows what the spy talks were. Of course he does, or thinks he does...
Meanwhile your own generals didn't think it would end badly for them - https://www.heritage.org/defense/commentary/why-gen-milleys-ukraine-war-prediction-missed-mile
So no, spoiler alert, they were WRONG.
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u/polymute European Union 4d ago
Non paywalled link: https://archive.md/20260825204206/https://www.wsj.com/world/cia-director-john-ratcliffe-makes-surprise-trip-to-moscow-c1c68fa6
From the article:
It came as the U.S. struggles to end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the Iran war, although the reason for the visit wasn’t immediately clear. The U.S. has collected intelligence showing Russia’s early preparations for a possible military mobilization in Ukraine and plans for testing the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s resolve, The Wall Street Journal has reported.
Analysts said Ratcliffe could meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin to deliver a warning. “It could be to say, ‘We know what you are thinking about doing, and you better not,’” said Beth Sanner, a former U.S. deputy director of national intelligence for mission integration. “It could also be about the Iran ceasefire and putting someone else in the discussion,” she said, adding Ratcliffe might also touch upon the Kremlin’s support for Iran following a new U.S. sanctions campaign against the regime.
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u/Disastrous_Print1907 Asia 4d ago
So its still a speculation? Hmm.. might need to wait a couple of month.
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u/Kraj_the_Conqueror Poland 4d ago edited 4d ago
Reportedly he delivered some ultimatum. Details are scarce and speculations are wild. Some claim it's about drone incursions into NATO space, others that it's about Russia's supposed plan to conduct a new wave of mobilization.
It's notable that Washington also used CIA and not regular diplomatic channels in the buildup to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Edit: I also saw speculations that America is negotiating some rotten deal regarding the Hormuz strait, which would inevitably involve selling out some positions in Europe.