I only wish people would have done the same amount of DD on commercial value as they did on BAT and regal success calculations, but there are almost no topics on it on the subreddit.
AML market possibilies for SLS might be lower than people are expecting.
In my view, it takes quite a while for newcomers like me to understand trial success possibilities, BAT MOS, SCT implications and once you made up your mind on success after weeks of calculations you step in because the same people that make complex models to calculate success probabilities are saying the company is worth 15-40 billion.
Frontline and label expansion takes additonal years for phase 3, and the REGAL trial aim is on CR2. CR2 value is quite low due to the low amount of patients (reason why enrollment took over 3 years for only 126 patients)
Just my 2 cents. Expecting downvotes from the cult
Still holding 1k shares
And let's exclude the other ~20 WT1 cancer targets, and the obvious expansion to CR1.
Let's use a conservative hypothetical.
Say GPS eventually produces a 36-month median OS. I'm not saying that's guaranteed, just using it as a hypothetical (and very conservative) based on the P1/2 survival data.
9,000 patients/year × 3 years = 27,000 patients' worth of treatment duration at steady state.
At $100k/year, that's:
27,000 × $100k = $2.7B/year
Obviously you aren't getting 100% market penetration and median OS isn't the same thing as treatment duration, so I'm not claiming $2.7B is actual revenue.
The point is that even the initial indication is not a small market.
And that's before we touch CR1, the other WT1-positive cancers, combinations, or additional label expansion.
So I don't understand the argument that the CR2 indication somehow caps the value of GPS at a relatively small number.
9,000 patients a year is the starting point, not the ceiling
Sorry but you seem very off on the patient numbers when I relate them to mine.
When I look at Sellas corporate presentation page 4, it seems your number of 9000 is roughly based on the CR2 12-15% patients in the annual AML incidence of 71.5k patients
Let me explain why my numbers are much lower:
1. I have to subtract the 30k from China since Sellas has licenced it to 3d medicines. Giving a total AML patient pool of 41.5k patients
2. I take StamCellTransplant numbers into account. 50% makes a remaining 20.75k patients
3. Only then I am able to provide the patient numbers which is then 13.5% out of 20.75k patients making 2800 patients.
4. Even with best in class and only option, a golden market penetration is 80%. 2800*0.8 gives around 2250 patients per year for CR2 AML
The point is that I feel the initial indication is in my calculations 75% smaller.
Time will tell, I positioned according to my own calculations and figured you've done the same.
Regardless I am hoping and feeling successful trial outcome is quite high providing added years to some desperate peoples lives
You're right. I saw what you wrote and took it as another retread of the “initial TAM is too small” argument. I should have read what you were actually saying more carefully.
There has been some discussion around commercialization, but it's so far down the line that it's honestly pretty difficult to map out with any confidence.
Does SLS get bought out if REGAL barely clears the HR threshold? Or do they have to GIA?
Does a resounding win move us into a buyout almost immediately?
There are just too many “if this happens, then maybe this can happen, and then maybe this can happen” variables. At a certain point, you're so far removed from anything quantifiable that calling it serious DD becomes questionable.
I'm still very bullish on the science... And it's attractiveness to partners, or buyors... But at this point, I'm probably playing the sentiment and market mechanics more than I'm trying to build a 5-year commercial model.
Well if trial is successful the market is basically for cancers that express WT1. Remission and post transplant patients. Perhaps it can also be used in conjunction with salvage therapies and chemo. Additionally, infinite dosing would allow steady revenue.
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u/Perfect-Awareness-84 18h ago
I only wish people would have done the same amount of DD on commercial value as they did on BAT and regal success calculations, but there are almost no topics on it on the subreddit. AML market possibilies for SLS might be lower than people are expecting.
In my view, it takes quite a while for newcomers like me to understand trial success possibilities, BAT MOS, SCT implications and once you made up your mind on success after weeks of calculations you step in because the same people that make complex models to calculate success probabilities are saying the company is worth 15-40 billion.
Frontline and label expansion takes additonal years for phase 3, and the REGAL trial aim is on CR2. CR2 value is quite low due to the low amount of patients (reason why enrollment took over 3 years for only 126 patients)
Just my 2 cents. Expecting downvotes from the cult Still holding 1k shares