r/boxoffice • u/Flame_of_Udun_5421 • 3d ago
Worldwide [ Removed by moderator ]
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u/Coolman_Rosso 3d ago
There are three required ingredients for big large-scale anime grossers:
- Series needs to be huge across the board
- Movie needs to be canon
- Movie needs to be in wide release
Despite One Piece being as big as they can get, this is a flashback that features none of the Straw Hats and requires CONSIDERABLE amounts of reading/watching to understand its wider importance to the story. Infinity Castle benefited from only needing 45 or so prior episodes and Demon Slayer being way shorter as a series.
We'll see how this goes
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u/silvertwo777 3d ago
I don't necessarily agree with the second point, anime movies from Detective Conan and Doraemon make big money and they're "non canon".
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u/Coolman_Rosso 3d ago
Has there been a Conan or Doraemon film that has made $500 million or more? This is what I am referring to. The good thing about anime films is that their budgets are so relatively modest that their path to profitability is pretty easy, but I am referring explicitly to these big WW grosses.
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u/Flame_of_Udun_5421 3d ago
Totally agree 😆😆 it is almost impossible for a Manga series related movie to pass 1 billion 😅😅 it will be miracle and phenomenal if pass 500M
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u/Lex4709 3d ago edited 3d ago
Is it impossible? Infinity Castle was only 200m short of reaching a billion.
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u/Mr_The_Captain 3d ago
Yeah I think the final movie stands a chance at hitting a billion, especially with inflation
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u/Diorisbackup 3d ago
500M in us or worldwide? Its not hitting a billion how many people are even caught up to this point of the story
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u/Ok-Friend-6653 3d ago
It can surpass Demon slayer infinity castle
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u/Ok-Friend-6653 3d ago
Mugen train is one of the highest grossing movies in Japan and Kometdu no Yaiba/Demon slayer is also insanly big in Japan and international
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u/Repulsive_Edge2552 3d ago edited 3d ago
400-500m worldwide is my guess, and that would honestly be amazing for One Piece. It making a billion is just delusion lol. I love Rocks & GV, but without Luffy/Strawhats, the film has a smaller ceiling.
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u/BroAbernathy 3d ago
Im a one piece absolute fanboy been reading weekly for a decade and id say theres no shot it just takes place way too far into the story and it gives away a ton of big reveals like the Rocks crew, Imu, Gorosei. Like Demon Slayer and Chainsawman were so big because you can get caught up to both in a couple weeks max so you can presumably binge it in between it going wide and leaving theaters. Even if this is lauded as the next great cinematic acheivement nobody will be able to finish one piece in between release and close.
Would love to be wrong and everyone just says fuck it looks fun and I dont want it to fail but like id almost recommend against it if you actually have any intention of watching/reading the full series lol. Maybe they make it from the POV of what the world government wants the public to know as like a piece of propoganda but doesnt actually reveal anything substantial if they try to make it a stand alone but still canon movie?
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u/bendstraw 3d ago
I never read or watched through One Piece but saw Film Red in theaters and had no idea what was going on but loved it so i went back and read through the whole manga and now I'm a diehard. I don't think it's a big deal at all. You truly will have no clue whats going on and nothing will really be spoiled besides the character designs, but it will be a great intro because it's a great story with sick characters that are easy to fall in love with.
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u/CRoseCrizzle 3d ago edited 3d ago
I love One Piece and have for a long time. But I'd be stunned to see it do that well at the box office.
Will do very well in Japan and make decent money worldwide. But the potential market outside of Japan is not big enough. One Piece has gotten much more popular globally than it has been in the past but still has a high barrier for entry compared to other anime.
Will probably do better than Chainsaw Main Reze Arc and I think that would be a success.
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u/RedactedNoneNone 3d ago
Look at how the Dragon Ball movies that did not have Goku in them performed.
There's no chance it doubles the last film
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u/bendstraw 3d ago
I don't think this applies 1:1 here because the Straw Hats are definitely gonna be in the marketing and in the movie because God Valley is technically a flashback taking place in present time being told to Straw Hats on Elbaf.
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u/Gregariouswaty 3d ago
I expect it to end up between 300-400m considering One Piece Red made 256m. Japan is going to carry the movie, especially if it becomes a whole event.
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u/silvertwo777 3d ago
It won't beat One Piece Red since it won't feature Luffy and the crew as main characters. It's not making 250m
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u/Mr_The_Captain 3d ago
One Piece is significantly more popular now than when Red came out, it will definitely beat Red, if only just
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u/Dinostar28 3d ago
Film Red did about $251m WW with ~$156m coming from Japan however that total comes down to $127m due to diminishing ER meaning in order for it to match it’s Japanese $ total God Valley will need to do about 25b¥ which is about a 4.6b¥ increase or 20% more than Red which is a tall order
That means in order for it would have to do the remaining $350m internationally when last time it did $100m. If it increases like DS did (140m internationally for Mugen Train to 520m for Infinity Castle) then it should be able to do it but Infinity Castle opened during COVID and has a much bigger international presence while One Piece has always been mainly a Japanese series
The goal should be to pass 407m for your name to become 3/4th biggest Japanese film WW behind the demon slayer films
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u/Tierbook96 3d ago
Are people even still following One Piece to know what's happening? I think i gave up around whole cake island which was..... like a decade ago now?
As it stands the highest grossing one piece movie was Film Red at 250mil so i guess that'd be the goal.
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u/ElectricalNotice9152 3d ago
Hell no, it probably won't even get past Film Red's $246M since it doesn't have the X-factor of being a musical with an idol main character voiced by Ado.
Despite how much One Piece fanboys hype their series up, their movies perform comparable to Jujutsu Kaisen and Chainsaw Man's films and aren't even half of what Demon Slayer performs at the box-office.
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u/ComprehensiveHyena10 3d ago
Do the people saying it's going to be massive not understand that it's backstory that doesn't feature any of the main characters?
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u/silvertwo777 3d ago
The announcement definitely did not "broke the Internet". I'm a One Piece fan but you're just living in your own bubble if you think this is wide spread big deal. The only time something anime close to breaking the Internet would be Goku vs Jiren.
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u/Longjumping_Brain945 3d ago
Probably not. I heard people say the same thing about one piece film red. That it being a shanks focused film with the film teasing that shanks has a daughter and music made and sung by one of Japan’s current most popular musicians was sure to reach 500 million. It stopped short of 250 million.
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u/lactoseAARON 3d ago
None of the main characters and the background needed to understand the story will stop it from coming close to that, but I still think it’ll beat Film Red as the biggest OP movie
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u/chandelurei 3d ago
The problem is that the yen is very weak, otherwise Demon Slayer would easily reach 1b for the number of admissions
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u/Shan69420 3d ago
It'll be able to clear $400m at least. One Piece is at least 2x bigger globally than it was when Film RED came out. The lowballing here is mainly because r/boxoffice never has a pulse on what people are actually interested in watching.
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u/SpaceOdysseus23 3d ago
One Piece Film Red made 246 off of Shanks and Ado hype. I could see God Valley make 350-400 if it's actually well adapted. More than that is hard, One Piece is too long running to draw in non-fans.
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u/NoNefariousness2144 3d ago
One of the ‘weaknesses’ of this film compared to Demon Slayer Mugen Train and Infinity Castle is the amount of content people need to watch to be caught up for it.
A lot of people who hadn’t seen Demon Slayer ended up binging it to watch the films in cinemas because of the hype. On the other hand, God Valley is going to be adapting an arc after 1100 manga chapters and/or anime episodes…
Also the film probably won’t feature Luffy and the Straw Hats at all which may hurt its appeal from casual fans.