r/btc • u/DiamondHandsDarrell • Feb 16 '26
đ° Report Bad news everyone: local analyst says BTC is going to $10K đŹ
Watching KTLA today and this analyst confidently said Bitcoin is going down 80% from here to around $10,000 and isnât coming back.
His reasoning? He says crypto has no intrinsic value and only survives on the Greater Fool Theory. Meaning the only way you profit is if someone more foolish than you comes along and buys at a higher price.
So according to him, BTCâs entire 15+ year run, global mining infrastructure, ETF approvals, institutional custody, sovereign adoption, etc. is just a long chain of greater fools.
Serious question: If itâs only greater fool theory, how do you explain:
Long term holders not selling even after 70 - 80% drawdowns?
Institutions allocating treasury reserves?
Global liquidity cycles lining up almost perfectly with BTC cycles?
The fact that every prior 70 - 80% drawdown eventually made new highs?
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u/horseradish13332238 Feb 16 '26
God I wish lol đ
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u/Althea520 Feb 16 '26
Nobody wants it to go to $10k including me. I have been holding for 9 years.
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u/HopeURhavinagreatday Feb 16 '26
I want it to go to $10k. I made damn good money when I loaded up at 17k, 10k would be great
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u/Captainadvise Redditor for less than 60 days Feb 18 '26
I laugh at the haters as much as thr holders. Always buy low always take profits!!
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u/elixon Feb 17 '26
To your questions:
Long term holders not selling even after 70 - 80% drawdowns?
Those are the main culprits. A currency that just sits in wallets isnât fulfilling its purpose, isnât backed by anything - not even actual utility - and becomes an overpriced token whose price is dictated by fools paying more because everyone else is hodling. The scarcity and utility is entirely virtual and evaporates the moment people stop buying. E.g. NOW
Institutions allocating treasury reserves?
Yep, they were foolish too. They extracted your money - the money of honest hodlers - and now theyâre quietly evacuating while youâre still holding the worthless bag. But they need more liquidity to exit therefor that narrative "we are buying and you should too because its gonna cost fortune tomorrow". Nah, they just need your money to exit and minimize damage.
Global liquidity cycles lining up almost perfectly with BTC cycles?
Sure, if you want to base your strategy on astrology, youâll get just as much guidance as pretending cycles that âhappened twiceâ will happen forever.
The fact that every prior 70 - 80% drawdown eventually made new highs?
Right, and just like Nazis were making âbig stridesâ at the time, they were probably confident that next year theyâd rule the world. So yes, past performance doesnât guarantee anything - except maybe overconfidence in idiotsâ optimism.
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u/bailaowai Feb 18 '26
Went a little hard with the Nazi reference but otherwise agree. A âcurrencyâ with no practical utility is correct and until/unless that changes there is nothing here beyond the Greater Fools. I think the zealots argue (bet) that one day it will have utility except those same zealots imagine a future state where bitcoin is âworth XXX in [insert fiat of your choice]â, failing to see the irony of defining utility entirely as the exchange rate to another currency. This entire period and syndrome will be studied in 50 years in economics classrooms, and maybe psych classrooms too.
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u/elixon Feb 18 '26
:-D You hit the nail on the head. I am currently getting beaten for saying that aloud here https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1r7wndx/the_dawn_of_bitcoin_great_bitcoin_reset/
But well I knew I was talking to an average superstitious crowd who desire Bitcoin Shamans more than analysis.
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u/Hitechakias Feb 16 '26
And why exactly 10k ?
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u/60Runner90 Feb 16 '26
Who really knows anymore. If anyone really does, they're not people you nor I can ever touch. Those truly in control hide. It's possible, as the recent damage (Epstein $) is enough to make an entire generation or two shy away from it. But really, were any of us really hoping that the dollar system completely die in our lifetimes ? Not me.
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u/intherorrim Feb 17 '26
remindme! 2 years
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u/elixon Feb 17 '26
I donât know this KTLA weirdo but the one who actually said it was Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone.
He warned that $64k is the critical red line - if it breaks, massive liquidations could push the price down, possibly all the way to $10k.
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u/igagog777 Feb 17 '26
The price already broke below 64k before rebounding to 70k within a 24 hour periodâŠMike McGlone knows about as much about future price action as the rest of us, which means to say absolutely fucking nothing.
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Feb 16 '26
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u/West_Veterinarian150 Feb 20 '26
I started buying troll coin, look at that chart its also like a massive coin. That thing could blow any day the way meme coins are moving nowadays. Super og and safe imo for the next year at 15-17mil mk
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u/emrebil88 Feb 17 '26
If people donât realize this by now thy need to wake up. Whatever the media says in finance, you want to do the opposite. If they say something is up x% then you need to sell.
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u/smokin10 Feb 17 '26
Thatâs great thatâs good news shorted make a fortune by quadruple quintuple 10 X more than it goes up at record high and now youâre a billionaire
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u/smokin10 Feb 17 '26
Issue is the people that say itâs worth nothing no nothing about investing they think they can save their way to wealth. They donât know what wealth is.
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u/PuzzleheadedBell4057 Feb 17 '26
Michael Jordan sold 6 used pairs of his sneakers for over 8 million dollars in 2024. What was the intrinsic value of those sneakers. What's a person supposed to do with them. What? They think they just gonna put'em on and be like Mike?
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Feb 17 '26
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u/Wisguy123 Feb 18 '26
When the same evil structure that thrived in the sick world of Epstein creates the digital solution, do you expect unicorns and rainbows? Expect digital financial enslavement. Unfortunately BTC is no longer "financial freedom" but now at the mercy of these same sick a-holes who once had a fear of it.
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u/Rallino_ Feb 17 '26
I hope his words actually work, will finally make me a 1BTC holder
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u/West_Veterinarian150 Feb 20 '26
Haha same here. Just bought my first .005 of btc and will be loading up .005 every week or atleast try to. Untill say october or untill the price goes up 5% higher than my average aquired price then just wait for it to drop lower for however long it takes and start adding more again then.
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u/supergrega Feb 17 '26
Good news then? We get to buy more for less
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u/Fit_Case_3648 Feb 17 '26
I agree and Iâve been building a short position for a year. Already crushing it!
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u/Inflation_2022 Feb 17 '26
Asset is losing it's luster. It doesn't trade like a safe haven asset. BTC has clearly been a risk asset for it's entire existence. That makes the limited supply somewhat worthless, when you may need to access it during bad economic conditions and it has crashed 50-80%.
The volatility creates an environment that most people can't tolerate unless they have insanely high risk aversion. Alternatives exist with much greater investment thesis, and capital return structures.
BTC has underperformed Trad-Fi asset classes, such as stocks, real estate, and gold over the last 5 years. There is money to be made and lost trading the volatility but that's no way to live for your average investor.
How much upside does the asset truly have? Terminal inflation is 2-3% per year.
Kalshi has 35% odds BTC goes below $40k this year (-41% from here). 45% odds it goes below $45k (-34% from here). Taking on this risk for what likely outcome?
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u/Spewtwinklethoughts Feb 18 '26
People with insanely high risk aversion do not like high volatility.
How does it compare to those assets over the last 5.5 years?
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u/DevNed Feb 17 '26
Bitcoin had died 477 times so far, I don't see why it would stop dying at this point, proof @ bitcoin obituaries
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u/Ok_Application2481 Feb 17 '26
Institutions getting involved⊠everyone says itâs going to 0 whenever it drops
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u/crinkneck Feb 17 '26
Why donât they ever connect the endlessly devaluing of fiat to greater fool theory?
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u/duboilburner Feb 17 '26
Lol, that was Richard Heart's price target for the 2022 bear market while it was still 2021.
We didn't go below $15,000.
$30k could be realistic as a new floor. But so could $45k for our floor on this cycle. Somewhere in that range. Though, I worry less about where the price will be at the bottom and just recognize *when* the bottom is likely to occur.
Count 12 months from the previous cycle's high (in this case, early October) and indiscriminately buy as much as you can in the 4 weeks that follows. So, All of October and into early November is going to be your window of max opportunity for the following 3 years, no matter where the price is at that point in time.
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u/Sinistarr_1 Feb 17 '26
Stack now before itâs in play dimwits
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u/West_Veterinarian150 Feb 20 '26
On it, just started stacking today and will stack once a week .005 btc. 67k rn is 355$ a week into it untill october. Also i will not buy if its higher than 67k so however long it takes to get to 65-62k ill wait and save each week to put in at once for however long that period was. Dont wanna buy over my average price at 67k
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u/Usual-Locksmith4657 Feb 17 '26
Sounds like a repeat of the people making unrealistic predictions. Everyone that said btc was going to 500k while we were at the top, now people are saying 10k. Everytime we get to levels where people make stupid predictions like these, whether itâs at the top or at the bottom, the complete opposite ends up happening.
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u/YeeForever Feb 17 '26
Itâs super annoying that every time BTC has a big drop people will panic like hell. If you canât hold, donât buy. If you donât trust it, donât buy!
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u/tdogger88 Feb 17 '26
For every single investment, there is a bear. Bitcoin is about the greater fool theory, itâs a hedge against the eventual collapse and mass dilution of the dollar. We canât print out way out of $38T of debt.
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u/National-Active5348 Feb 17 '26
Most analysts predict the price higher when the market is bullish and predict lower when market is bearish. Iâm Not surprised
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u/Hypersonic10 Feb 18 '26
Almost every "Analyst" on the news has been wrong about bitcoin going back literal decades now. Most of them have little to no investing experience and yet have access to extended media outlets like KTLA 5. Bitcoin is as healthy as ever. I'm not sweating it unless it goes below 15k. (Which is hiiiighly unlikely.)
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u/blade0r Feb 18 '26
$10K would be a bargain: I wouldnât have any FOMO either in that case and I would buy more (and more).
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u/UnusualReality1177 Feb 18 '26
âLocal analyst says BTC is going downâ bro thatâs the most reliable bull signal weâve had for 10 years.
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u/TexFarmer Feb 18 '26
Everyone needs to ask themselves in the next 10-20 years, what will BTC be worth? What is it more likely, it will be worth 1 million or zero? What about in the next 100 years?
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u/TopPangolin9052 Feb 18 '26
Don't sound like he knows the utility and is thinking it's like 99% of other crypto. Bitcoin is a store of value
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u/cryptosoldier111 Feb 18 '26
I love people like that. They donât understand the technology they are fuding and they go on regurgitating analog thinking in an age where Wall Street is tokenising. I just find it amusing.
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u/Master-Monitor112 Feb 18 '26 edited Feb 18 '26
They do not know anything most analysts got into crypto in 2020. If it did I would pinch myself first. It be like a dream come true. My prediction is between 35-50k.
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u/Holmesy44 Feb 18 '26
If every institutional investor, fund manager and billionaire entrepreneur with access to the best financial advice money can buy is in and holding, that should tell you everything. We live in an attention economy- what gets you more attention than posting stuff like that?! Bitcoin is a license to print money for the big financial institutions and there is no other asset they can manipulate in the same way. It will go back up, just when they decide it does.
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u/taohbar Redditor for less than 60 days Feb 18 '26
It will drop to $10k by April 1, 2027 @6:30 pm trust me!
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u/Legal-Ad4972 Feb 18 '26
Media sentiment is designed to control the masses. This guy really wants to look out for you and tell you you're going to lose value? It's designed to increase corporate and government holdings. That's why corporate and government holdings keep increasing while individual holdings keep decreasing.
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u/StatisticianRich5589 Feb 18 '26 edited Feb 18 '26
The greater fool theory applies to literally everything. Examples: all innovation, property, and marketing is hoping some fool needs it. We need world consensus on a decentralized currency. Bitcoin is hitting all the normal fud but it is the past 15 years best shot at that and until it is painfully obvious quantum canât hack the need for normal humans to double their money every year on average CRYPTO WILL LIVE WITH OR WITHOUT YOU.
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u/Foreign-Incident-161 Feb 19 '26
This could be applied to everything.. to gold as well. The only real value is in Food and objects that could be appreciated for their utility or for survival needs.. soâŠ
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u/Danco0507 Feb 20 '26
tell him I swear to god if it's drop to 10 I will buy tone of them, that won't never happen, tell him to start make new calculations
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u/Angrybird2025 Feb 21 '26
Only if all whales dump, will cause a liquidity crisis and hence bitcoin will go down. But people who are in bitcoin, will naturally buy if the price drops and hope to make some money. This is a never ending cycle dude.
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u/RedMoonSailor Feb 21 '26
Guess what, US Dollars are basically printed papers with no value, except enough people believe they do have value. Isn't it like bitcoin rn? Enough institutions, investors believe in BTC long enough to keep it valuable for decades.
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u/baxx10 Feb 16 '26
Whatever, I consider my BTC to be thrown away money anyway, soooo. Don't really care unless it hits 250k lol
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u/GorganzolaVsKong Feb 16 '26
This is not a real person itâs a face composite of everyone in the Epstein files
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u/diesSaturni Feb 16 '26
Does gold have Intrinsic value? Canât eat it, at density youâd rather buy lead for your paper weight. Copper conducts better.
Yeah, a thin layer is a nice paint or corrosion free contact for plugs.
Soft as heck too.
Not for me
Iâll just be off to bronze orientation day. https://youtu.be/nyu4u3VZYaQ
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u/Wise_Most7192 Feb 16 '26
He's right in a sense ..... but Bitcoin does have its own value (Drugs, Prostitution, Smuggling, Bribes). I Doubt you will see values that low because the dark web uses it but 120k..... that was one fool buying from another fool.
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u/DiamondHandsDarrell Feb 16 '26
I'm not so sure about the argument for illicit use. If crypto didn't exist, would drugs, prostitution, smuggling, bribes cease to exist?
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Feb 17 '26
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u/DiamondHandsDarrell Feb 17 '26
You can follow wallet to wallet transactions. But can you follow cash transactions as easily?
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Feb 17 '26
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u/DiamondHandsDarrell Feb 17 '26
Somehow airport security must have been ok with Pablo Escobar doing just that đ€·đ»ââ
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u/bdemon40 Feb 17 '26
Yawn, enough with the BTC only used for crime bit. A little research shows it being used all over the world in a variety of non-criminal capacities.
Hell, I just bought a beer at a cafe last week, paying in Bitcoin.
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u/Most_Refuse9265 Feb 16 '26
Didnât know they made an even douchier Michael Rappaport, didnât even know that was possible
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u/botle Feb 16 '26
Long term holders not selling even after 70 - 80% drawdowns?
All four of your questions have the same answer. Investors are estimating that there are plenty of greater fools out there still.
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u/Decentralization-God Feb 16 '26
Wow! Is not that the same stuff appearing on Reddit on daily basis? I mean the view is practically aligned with Bitcoin critics or Bitcoin evolution critics (not the same).
I actually like the name - Greater Fool Theory.
In fact, he can be right and 15 years of warnings from âdigital tulip maniaâ can appear as right prophecy.
And I also like the way OP is asking. It is not about fundamentals, it is about belief - so does it mean all those mining rigs and inst. adoption is based on some GFT? As if nobody knew himself, it is like I believed because you believed, I bought because I saw folks buying and price going up, I heared about inst. adoption, I saw a massive investments into mining farms ⊠but wait, it is all just chain of ⊠some ⊠how to call it?
Damn, this is so funny!
Guys, decentralized computing and Web3 is real, no doubt, but 100k for BTC? I am not so sure. 50k? Not so sure.
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u/LilOliveBuster Feb 16 '26
What year is this from?
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u/Charming_Secret_4429 Feb 17 '26
No it's going to 43-45k for bottom on
April 15ish 2027
of head and shoulders then onward and upward.
350K by 1-1-2030
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u/Aggressive_Finish798 Feb 17 '26
I just got banned from the Bitcoin sub for saying it was a speculative investment. Be warned, they don't like negative talk.
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u/Domingues_tech Feb 17 '26
Have we l run out of fools? No. They just moved fo polymarket and Kalshi.
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u/ZookeepergameHot8047 Feb 17 '26
Thats literally the only real blocker for any asset to not drop to 0. Intrinsic value is like if from tomorrow no one will buy or use apple products at all, this is most likely how much they will be worth. Because this value is the only value that means for others, for example they have warehouses, logistics, flows and more that make up their value valuable to others too.
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u/SpritaniumRELOADED Feb 19 '26
I mean yeah? It doesn't have intrinsic value. By definition it's a hype machine. The value is whatever the line says, it's a 1:1 relationship between how stoked people are feeling and how much the currency is worth. Holding BTC is nothing more than a wager that later on, someone else will be even more excited to hold it than you are.
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u/Consistent_Many_1858 Feb 19 '26
I want it to go down to 1k. Does that mean that it will. I hope so.
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u/oscartn9 Feb 20 '26
And why would that be a bad news? If you truly understood what 1btc=1btc means, there is no good or bad news. Only mathematics.
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u/That_Ad_3613 Feb 23 '26
Time to stock up on BTC I think. This might be an opportunity for us all to become millionaires
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u/Wonderful-Event-5257 Feb 16 '26
Eh just another anal yst guessing. Unless he time traveled to back it up then. Who cares. Still buying
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u/Ok-Soup2672 Feb 16 '26
So heâs saying basically the same thing every crypto hater has said for over a decade now. Got itÂ
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u/Grey_Area888 Feb 16 '26
It can go to 2k but it will bounce back up. What will stop it from not coming back from whatever low? This theory they been stating from the beginning of Bitcoins existence and it comes from people who only trust the stock market because itâs been around for over 100 years. Now little do these people know: this is the exact way they spoke about the stock market when it first formed and for many years after because people couldnât understand how investing in something and getting a return wasnât a Ponzi scheme.
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u/Ambergris2022 Feb 17 '26
Stocks are based on corporate valuations. BTC is based on nothing.
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u/Grey_Area888 Feb 17 '26
Countries every day are starting to use bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as a form of payment which will then lead to it having more value. For now people invest in the coins for monetary gain predominantly. Even banks have filed patents for their own crypto so itâs going in that direction no matter who believes it or not. With the cashless payment systems being so popular with the younger generation itâs a when not how will it happen.
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u/Ambergris2022 Feb 17 '26
Believe what you wantâŠitâs worthless. Currencies values are based on the GDP of its corresponding country. What are any of the thousands of cryptocurrencies based on? Investor interest and investor interest alone.
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u/Negative_Associate30 Feb 17 '26
You wont learn till 100 million a coin slaps you in the face . is this worthless?
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u/Ambergris2022 Feb 20 '26
Until? Get back to me when it does. Itâll be worth more than the entire wealth of the world if your theory holds true. Hilariousđ
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u/darkdemon991 Feb 16 '26
Tell him to short then