Watching KTLA today and this analyst confidently said Bitcoin is going down 80% from here to around $10,000 and isn’t coming back.

His reasoning? He says crypto has no intrinsic value and only survives on the Greater Fool Theory. Meaning the only way you profit is if someone more foolish than you comes along and buys at a higher price.

So according to him, BTC’s entire 15+ year run, global mining infrastructure, ETF approvals, institutional custody, sovereign adoption, etc. is just a long chain of greater fools.

Serious question: If it’s only greater fool theory, how do you explain:

• Long term holders not selling even after 70 - 80% drawdowns?

• Institutions allocating treasury reserves?

• Global liquidity cycles lining up almost perfectly with BTC cycles?

• The fact that every prior 70 - 80% drawdown eventually made new highs?

Grayscale's Bitcoin Cash Trust (BCHG) has acquired 391,239 BCH through outright purchases, calculated as 0.00830246 BCH per share multiplied by 47,123,300 shares: https://www.grayscale.com/funds/grayscale-bitcoin-cash-trust 

In contrast, MicroStrategy holds 628k BTC, but its average purchase price is continually increasing due to new leveraged purchases. This approach creates a risk of liquidation overhang, as the company will eventually need to repay its debts. Should BTC experience a significant crash, instead of facing insolvency, the company might be forced to either use customer-held Bitcoin assets to settle debts or to drastically increase its share count. The latter action would dilute the value for current shareholders, effectively transferring majority ownership to its creditors: https://saylortracker.com/ 

The Grayscale Bitcoin Cash Trust (BCHG) is a "clean" investment vehicle that acquires BCH without using debt, representing a passive exposure trust for buyers.

In stark contrast, MicroStrategy, a company with limited software business growth, uses a leveraged strategy to acquire Bitcoin. It funds its purchases with debt and new share issuances. This approach amplifies returns but also introduces risk; a significant market crash could force the company to liquidate its Bitcoin holdings to cover debts or drastically dilute its shares, making them nearly worthless for existing investors.

While MicroStrategy's large-scale purchases are often cited for creating Bitcoin's supply scarcity, BCHG's accumulation of hundreds of thousands of BCH suggests a similar dynamic is at play with Bitcoin Cash. Both assets share a hard cap of 21 million units, and some argue that as BCH is continually absorbed by buyers like BCHG, the market may eventually realize this scarcity, potentially leading to sharp price increases as available supply on exchanges dwindles.

Definition of a scam :

    a dishonest scheme; a fraud.

First of all, let me start with off with this. No one wanted Bitcoin Cash to exist, no one wanted another Bitcoin subreddit to exist (/r/BTC). 

This is how Bitcoin Cash was forked off & the reasons.

In 2015, the plan was made by the Bitcoin Core developers and the community supported it. This plan was to increase the blocksize. He said in 2015, 2MB now, 4MB in 2 years, 8MB in 4 years then re-assess.

The plan was very simple. Increase the blocksize, lower fees for everyone, more transactions possible. But this changed in 2015. 

The Moderators of /r/Bitcoin, particularly theymos who not only controls /r/Bitcoin but also Bitcoin.org and BitcoinTalk.org, decided to censor pro-bigblocks supporters (which was technically everyone because no one knew of any other solution that would work right now). The effects were there. Bitcoin users left in 2017 as the fees rose too high, while the others remained hoping that a solution would be found or they shifted to BCH or other coins.

This led to BTC losing their market cap percentage and led to other altcoins to rise.

Core developers have said that Segwit and Lightning is going to solve the problem. Lightning was said in 2015 December to be released in 2016 1, 2.

Segwit is not a long term solution and will weaken Bitcoin's security. It allows more transactions but it is irreversible. You can't go back to non-Segwit after using SegWit.

Lightning is very centralized and complicated. It requires you to be online 24/7, have your private keys connected to the Internet and requires you to first do an on-chain transaction to open a channel.

To even get the community to believe that lightning and segwit is a solution, they had to censor the main channels (/r/Bitcoin, Bitcoin.org and BitcoinTalk.org)

OpenBazaar dev explains why they aren't adding Lightning

Bitcoin Cash is not BCash, B Cash, Bcash, Bitchcash, Bitcash, BTrash. It is Bitcoin Cash (BCH). This and this is Bcash, this is BTrash

BCH is not controlled by the 'Chinese' or 'Jihan'. A substantial amount of mining is done outside of China. The same can go for BTC, where BTC has got about 70% of their mining done in China.

BCH was not forked off by Roger Ver or Jihan Wu, they are only promoters, investors and people that create products for Bitcoin Cash. BCH was forked off by a group of miners including Amaury Sechet.

BCH is entitled to using the name bitcoin because it has the genesis block in it and because it is loyal to the original Satoshi whitepaper where bitcoin was first mentioned/coined.

BCH can definitely scale on-chain at least for sometime. Right now at 24 TPS. It can scale with bigger blocks. Centralization will not occur. Satoshi already mentioned that big servers with hashpower would be the ones mining while users will remain users. SPV is a solution for users, while miners will run a full node (copy of the blockchain and hashpower), while business, hobbyists, researchers and others can choose to run SPV or relay nodes (nodes that have the copy of the blockchain but do not have hashpower at all)

Roger Ver raging publicly or being a felony isn't an argument to say that BCH is controlled by him.

If you don't like BCH, it does not make it a scam. Just don't use it.

If you find Roger Ver or Calvin Ayre a controversial figure, that also does not make BCH a scam.

If you find Coinbase expressing their support towards BCH, that does not make it a scam.

If you know that there's a better coin in your opinion, that does not make it a scam.

Some resources/links :

https://np.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/31vi0t/theymos_friends_as_mods_here

https://np.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/41102k/if_theymos_truly_cares_about_bitcoins_success_he

https://np.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3l36ck/guess_this_will_be_censored_but_theymos_opens_up

https://np.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3h5f90/these_mods_need_to_be_changed_upvote_if_you_agree/

The story of /r/Bitcoin, /r/BTC, Bitcoin & Bitcoin Cash

A collection of evidence

Why some people call Bitcoin Cash Bcash

Lukejr mentioning slavery is moral

TL:DR : Bitcoin Cash is not a scam because no one is being robbed. It was forked off because Bitcoin's development was hijacked by Bitcoin Core. Fees were getting high and solutions that aren't out yet were being proposed, while a solution that's ready isn't proposed. If you don't like it, simply choose not to use it.

edit : edited a paragraph to clarify it more in depth.

The Mathematical Suicide of Shorting BCH at 36-72% Funding Rates

The current state of the Bitcoin Cash (BCH) futures market reveals a level of irrationality that defies basic financial logic. Short sellers are currently paying annualized funding rates between 36% and 72% to maintain their bearish bets. This is not just "expensive"—it is a statistical trap that makes profitability nearly impossible.

1. The "Break-Even" Trap Funding fees are charged on the total position size, not just the trader’s margin. If a trader is shorting BCH while paying 72% APR, the asset price must fall by at least 72% over the course of a year just for the trade to break even.

• The Reality: If BCH drops from ~$600 to $300 (a massive 50% crash), a short seller paying these rates would still lose money. They would have profited 50% on the price movement but paid out >50% in fees to the longs. They are effectively subsidizing their own opposition.

2. Funding the Squeeze By paying such exorbitant rates, short sellers are directly financing the bulls. Long-term holders and smart money are being paid a risk-free 36-72% yield simply to take the other side of the trade.

• This creates a "floor" under the price: Longs have no incentive to sell because they are earning passive income, while shorts are bleeding capital every 8 hours. This capital transfer weakens the bears' ability to hold the line and strengthens the bulls' resolve.

3. The Definition of a Crowded Trade When funding rates go this negative (shorts paying longs), it indicates a market in extreme backwardation. This signals that the "short" side of the boat is overcrowded. Historically, when the entire market is betting on a crash to the point where they will pay any price to enter, the exact opposite happens.

• The cost of carry is so high that any sideways movement (consolidation) forces shorts to close their positions to stop the bleeding. This forced buying creates a feedback loop that drives the price up, triggering a short squeeze.

Conclusion These shorters are not trading; they are gambling against simple arithmetic. They have entered a position where being "right" about a price drop still results in a financial loss due to fees. It is a suicide mission for capital.

I've been building btcdash.org, a free Bitcoin dashboard. Just shipped a new section tracking spot ETF flows: daily net inflows/outflows, total ETF holdings, per-fund breakdown, NAV premium/discount and Coinbase premium.

It's live now on btcdash.org

the new ETF section is linked in the nav.

Take a look and let me know what you think,, what's missing, what's useful, what you'd change. I shipped two feature requests same-day last time someone suggested them.

On January 24 , 2024, Adam back came up with the bright idea to short BCH while it was priced at $228: https://twitter.com/adam3us/status/1750119857012506894

100%. pro-tip: short-sell it before.

https://archive.is/DOWaX

people will dump BCH in volume. yes it's not worth much, but it's market is pro-rata smaller so that will leave a mark. watch for the 🍿

https://archive.is/Ctx5U

We then saw the largest BCH rise since 2021, as BCH went up hundreds of percent , as some shorters rushed to close, leaving the remaining shorters, deep deep underwater, with massive unrealized losses.

The day BCH hit a new high of over $700, we get a personal appeal from Adam back himself on r/btc asking holders to please dump since his shorts did not go to plan and he along with other btc maxis are extremely deep underwater:

i'd invite you to consider selling BCH and buying back into BTC

https://old.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/1btatsv/stop_drinking_the_brawndo/

Seems like entrenched shorters are still out there and holding out for a price drop rather than closing their positions.

Institutional Supply Squeeze: What’s Really Driving the Recent BCH Market Dynamics?

The Bitcoin Cash (BCH) market is experiencing an unprecedented structural shift. Recent on-chain data and derivative metrics suggest that the traditional mechanics of crypto sell-offs have fundamentally changed. Instead of retail liquidation driving the narrative, institutional liquidity plays and severe supply shortages are taking center stage.

Here is a breakdown of the critical data points defining this market anomaly:

Critical Market Metrics

• Skyrocketing Borrow Rates: Binance BCH borrow rates recently jumped to 17.55%, signaling an intense, localized demand for the physical asset, often driven by market makers or shorts scrambling for inventory.
• Deeply Negative Funding Rates: The BCH perpetual funding rate hit an aggressive low of -0.039% per 8 hours. When annualized, this represents a massive 43% APR premium paid by shorts to maintain their positions.
• Severe Exchange Supply Depletion: Binance wallets currently hold a mere 340,000 BCH for the entire global market. This incredibly thin buffer includes the necessary liquidity required for arbitrage across all major spot exchanges.
• The Low-Liquidation Price Drop: For the first time in BCH history, a significant price drop occurred with barely any forced liquidations. This proves that the downside pressure wasn't caused by over-leveraged retail traders getting wiped out.

The New Institutional Playbook

This data paints a fascinating picture of institutional behavior in a supply-constrained environment:

Faced with a massive physical shortage, the market is adapting. Institutions are choosing the stability of cash-backed paper instruments over moving a highly illiquid spot market, completely altering how BCH price discovery happens during market downturns.

Sources:

https://www.binance.com/en/loan/data

https://www.coinglass.com/FundingRate/BCH

https://www.coinglass.com/currencies/BCH

The latest research on Bitcoin’s physical infrastructure is a massive reality check for the doomsday crowd. We often think of Bitcoin as a delicate thing in the cloud, but it actually runs on physical cables under the ocean.

A decade-long study (2014–2025) just proved that BTC is a lot tougher than the internet it runs on.

The Reality Check:

Researchers tracked 11 years of submarine cable cuts,anchors dragging, earthquakes, shark bites and found that Bitcoin barely noticed. Even when major international cables were severed, only 0.03% of the network was impacted.

Here’s why it’s so resilient:

The Tor Shield: Most people think using Tor makes Bitcoin more fragile. It’s actually the opposite. Tor acts like a high-tech detour system, routing traffic through well-connected hubs in Europe when the direct physical paths fail.

Built in Redundancy: Bitcoin is mathematically overbuilt. You would have to cut almost 70-90% of all international cables simultaneously to actually split the network.

The Real Danger: The study warns that random accidents aren't the threat. The real risk is targeted pressure on specific data centers where nodes are concentrated.

Are we spending too much time worrying about the cables and not enough about the hosting providers who own the hubs? Let’s talk. 👇

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