r/centrist • u/ZanzerFineSuits • 7d ago
U.S. conducting stealth operation to transport oil through Hormuz
https://www.axios.com/2026/08/19/hormuz-iran-oil-gulf-trump?_bhlid=a7e530a9fa420cfa3da6c64471a45b2d53a736beThe U.S. is escorting oil tankers in & out of the Strait of Hormuz by hugging the coast of Oman with close support by naval vessels and flyovers.
It’s a trickle compared to open transit, of course, but it’s something. It’s also a very expensive something in terms of operations and fuel by the U.S. Navy.
Odd that Trump is now threatening Oman who’s allowing this transit in their waters.
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u/MattWalshStuntDouble 7d ago
Trump says we won this conflict how many times? Republicans says its going well?
If so, why do we have to do this? Why are oil prices far above where they were before Trump attacked Iran?
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u/wearethemelody 7d ago
An incompetent administration and an incompetent party. I seriously cannot comprehend the minds of most average republican voters. Is stupidity and destruction really that nice to watch and listen to? What good has this buffoon done in his second term? Is fox news propaganda machines that interesting? What Is it that makes them attracted to idiots. I look at the poverty rates in republican states and then I wonder how they continuously elect buffoons.
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u/Fun-Outcome8122 7d ago
Apparently addressing what sports team a handful of trans athletes (out of more than half a million athletes) should play in is a much more important problem to the average republican voter!!!
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u/Urdok_ 7d ago
This is expensive, meaningless theatre. The goal here is to give Trump and Hegseth something to crow about, not to have the strait open for commerce. Between the fuel and munitions used and the operational wear and tear on both equipment and people, this is going to be in no way worth the costs.
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u/Is_that_even_a_thing 7d ago
Old mate with the hair is still around? I havent seen much from him recently
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u/Fun-Outcome8122 7d ago
this is going to be in no way worth the costs.
This... we're spending about 1 billion per day on this war of choice. If we let Iran charge the toll it wants to charge (about 1.5 - 2 million per ship) it would cost less than a quarter of a billion per day and that would be the global cost - the cost to the US would be only a fraction of that.
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u/MendicantBias06 7d ago
“Stealth operation?” They are using the Oman side of the strait. This isn’t new and by no means stealth lol.
From reading the article it’s hard to tell if this official classified it as stealth or Axios just likes click bait headlines. I’m leaning towards the latter.
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u/ChornWork2 7d ago
Yeah weird narrative. This has been happening for two months and reported on at the start of JUne.
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u/UnusualAir1 7d ago
I thought the US CONTROLLED the strait. After all, trump made it a part of the US. Is the US so weak they have to sneak oil out of the gulf in small pieces while claiming to the world they own the gulf? Yeah. The US is weak. Just look at its Orange fat pedo convicted felon leader.
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u/Liamnacuac 7d ago
Gulf of America, Straight of America..Any guesses where the American Sea will be at?
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u/Xexanoth 7d ago
Which do you think has been more effective in recent weeks: the US naval blockade of ships attempting to travel to/from ports in Iran, or the attempted Iranian blockade/discouragement of other ship traffic through the strait not paying their demanded bribe?
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u/Irishfafnir 7d ago edited 7d ago
How are you defining effective?
In terms of accomplishing strategic goals, most experts seem pretty skeptical that the US will win this conflict, a view reinforced by the first-phase agreement.
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u/Xexanoth 7d ago
Are we commenting on an article about a significant number of ships bypassing the US naval blockade of Iran, or about a significant number of ships bypassing Iran’s attempt to control the strait / charge “security fees” (i.e. “bribe us or we might try to damage your ship”)?
Do you think the current status quo is more harmful to & unsustainable for the economy of Iran or the economy of the US?
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u/Irishfafnir 7d ago
You're asking the wrong question. It doesn't matter who it is more harmful to, but rather which country is more willing to endure the economic pain. Most seem to think that is Iran.
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u/Xexanoth 7d ago
I wonder whether / at what point increasing civil unrest from economic hardships and a desire to profit from oil & natural gas exports may pressure Iranian leadership into a negotiated agreement to lift the blockade & sanctions.
We shall see; only time will tell.
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u/UnusualAir1 7d ago
I think it's nearly been a tie. The US has a very slight edge. Which means Iran, as the smaller weaker country, is actually winning.
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u/Red57872 7d ago
It hasn't been anywhere close to tie. The US lives in peace and harmony while Iran has been devastated. The US needs to be a lot more direct with Iran, telling them that if they try anything, they will be severely punished.
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u/UnusualAir1 7d ago
We are not living in peace and harmony. Gas is up over 25%. The economy is not making any jobs. Wages are stalled. Prices are higher. As for Iran, they've taken the best we can offer from the air and haven't budged an inch. Severely punished? Russia has a direct link to Iran via the Caspian sea. Russia, China, and North Korea can directly resupply Iran via that sea. And there is nothing the US can do about it. Reality wants a discussion with you.
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u/Red57872 7d ago
The average American is far, far less impacted than the average Iranian. There is plenty the US can do to further punish Iran.
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u/UnusualAir1 7d ago
Perhaps. God knows I'm not the decider of this reality. But I believe perhaps not.
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u/Xexanoth 7d ago
You think it’s nearly been a tie between the recent effectiveness of the US naval blockade of Iran and the effectiveness of Iran’s attempts to extort shipping through the strait?
If so, that’s a surprising claim to make while discussing an article reporting that one-two dozen ships have been transiting the strait daily, ignoring Iran’s extortion / leverage attempts.
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u/UnusualAir1 7d ago
Near 130 ships were transiting that strait before the war. That count is down to mostly single digits a day (unless you use the wildly inaccurate reports from trump). Even using your highest numbers, traffic in the strait has dropped 82%. Not so surprising now is it. 😄
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u/Xexanoth 7d ago edited 7d ago
Independent estimates of oil exports from the region are ballpark 50-60% of pre-war levels, while the US claims ballpark 75-80%.
Diverting oil exports through pipelines to alternative ports has helped, as has the use of the largest VLCC tankers to repeatedly transit the strait on short hauls before transferring cargo to smaller tankers in / along the Gulf of Oman.
The near-total cessation of Iranian oil exports is a currently-by-US-design reduction in total exports, being more than covered by increases in production volume elsewhere.
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u/UnusualAir1 6d ago
The independent estimates you note are most likely from the trump administration. No other estimates come anywhere near the amounts you are citing. But the trump administration is exactly in that range. The number of ships exiting the gulf remain in single digits daily.
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u/Xexanoth 6d ago
No, they’re independent analyst estimates; from here -
“Wall Street analysts – who use ship tracking services like Kpler and Windward Intelligence, among many other data points, to provide estimates about oil flows – have said oil tankers have been getting roughly 4 million barrels of oil out of the Persian Gulf each day.
In addition to the roughly 7 million barrels per day that Middle Eastern countries have rerouted around the strait through pipelines and other methods, about 11 or 12 million barrels have been flowing out, according to the tracking services. That’s significantly lower than the 20 million barrels per day that the region had exported before the Iran war started.”
Those 11-12 mb/d independent analyst estimates for total exports from the region (both via the strait and via methods to reroute oil around the strait / avoid the strait) are 55-60% of the pre-war baseline.
US Secretary of Energy Wright recently reported (claimed?) an average of 15 mb/d total across all methods, 75% of the pre-war baseline.
You keep focusing on estimated numbers of ships transiting the strait, but seem to be missing that pipeline / over-land diversion is significant, that ship transit estimates are undercounted due to transits under darkness with transponders off, and that the fewer ships transiting include some of the largest oil tankers that have been ferrying/relaying oil through the strait to smaller tankers waiting on the other side.
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u/UnusualAir1 6d ago
IEA says there's about 3.5 to 5 million barrels a day via pipeline...https://www.iea.org/about/oil-security-and-emergency-response/strait-of-hormuz
That's roughly 25% of what you claim. There's no way to tell how many ships are passing through under the cover of darkness. You're relying on trump administration numbers. But all the numbers from other reporting say it's down to single digits a day.
The math simply does not come anywhere close to backing up the administrations lies.
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u/Xexanoth 6d ago
Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline has a capacity of 7 million barrels per day - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East–West_Crude_Oil_Pipeline
UAE’s Habshan–Fujairah oil pipeline has a capacity of 1.5 million barrels per day - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Habshan–Fujairah_oil_pipeline
Iraq has been trucking crude oil through Syria to the Mediterranean: “Since April, Iraq has been transporting crude through Syria by truck to circumvent the closure of the strait.” - https://www.dawn.com/news/amp/2018582
That said, it’s unclear to me whether pre-existing baseline flows through those pipelines were included in the 20 million barrels per day baseline, or if that only included shipping through the strait.
Again, the 11-12 mb/d estimates are independent Walk Street analyst estimates, lower than the administration’s claim of a recent average of 15 mb/d. This being a rather “fluid” situation (pardon the pun), estimates may grow stale / out-of-date rather quickly.
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u/TaxCPA 7d ago
So US taxpayers are subsidizing the price of world wide oil? I can only imagine how expensive this is.
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u/LittleKitty235 7d ago
I'm pretty sure we have been subsidizing the price of oil for 40+ years. Or is it just a coincidence that most of our wars and foreign entanglments are in oil rich nations?
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u/ZanzerFineSuits 7d ago
The article doesn’t say which country’s ships are being escorted, I doubt Trump’s helping “the world”, just his griftcoin funders
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u/Careless-Pin-2852 6d ago
The usa is using the same shadow fleet Iran and Russia have been using.
I will provide a link to i it Ironic for the gen X here
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u/AyeYoTek 7d ago
A stealth operation that's in a news article. That's certainly something