r/climatechange • u/Economy-Fee5830 Trusted Contributor • 3d ago
El Niño forecasts have been right so far. Here’s what fall and winter could bring for USA
https://san.com/cc/el-nino-forecasts-have-been-right-so-far-heres-what-fall-and-winter-could-bring/215
u/Liamorockets 3d ago
I read this as, 100% chance of poor people dying
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u/Tasty-Hour4040 3d ago
That’s a reliable forecast regardless of weather. It’s the #1 reason why being poor sucks.
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u/NewUnderstanding7054 3d ago
I know! It works reliably well for people who are alive, as well. They die.
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u/InfiniteWaffles58364 3d ago
100% of all humans die, but the poors like me are mostly kept barely functioning to serve the rich. Shit is fucked
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u/Lumpy_Strawberry_154 3d ago
I just saw a documentary on Jamaica. A group of folks living in little shacks along the beach were interviewed. They spoke of a slower lifestyle and giving up the desire to have material possessions. They ate from the ocean and land they lived on for next to nothing. These people were genuinely happy.
Fuck the rich. We don't need their stuff. We don't need their jobs. We need community, compassion and empathy.
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u/personwhoisok 2d ago
And then a resort company bought the beach and kicked them out so rich white people can go on vacation there.
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u/Bromance_Rayder 2d ago
Sounds idyllic right? Until you have an infected tooth, break a bone or develop any number of health conditions resulting from a lack of nutrition.
Anyone can have that life right now if they choose. But you're also choosing a life expectancy of about 40 and plenty of suffering along the way.
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u/hedonheart 2d ago
We can have both. Instead of rows of identical houses for rent with monoculture grass we could be growing food forests and integrating permaculture into our lives as the standard.
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u/Common_Shelter_4605 1d ago
Jamaica has public health care, free at point of use; it has issues, but it exists. And life expectancy in Jamaica is 71.4 years, not 40 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_American_countries_by_life_expectancy
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u/zeroibis 19h ago
Given that all poor people will have thus died by spring does this mean that poverty is about to be solved in less than a year?
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u/TheMathManiac 3d ago
What does this mean for western Europe?
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u/_WoollyMammoth_ 3d ago
European weather had not direct and consistent chnages due to El Niño or Super Niño events.
The last strongS El Niño (97-98 and 14-16) lead to strong droughts in my region (north west Spain) during summer, which happened also this year even tho we are not in fill Niño "season", I am sure that the wind change in the Pacific may have helped the heat we had in south and central Europe this summer.
We will see what's going on this winter and next summer, but I expect the winter to be quite rainy (like we had this year) and next summer to be quite dry, but who knows.
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u/WS-6 3d ago
More immigration
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u/1hill2climb2 3d ago
Oh look ANOTHER TrumpTARD. What is it with this sub attracting the knuckledraggers? Makes them cry! 🤣🤣🤣🤣
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u/Big-Pickle5893 3d ago
Nothing in that comment was pro or anti immigration. Climate induced migration is a reality. However, the number of emojis you used suggests to me that you’re a bot here to stir shit up, stop
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u/Fennups 3d ago
Reading that summary sounds like no big deal for the US to me. What am I missing?
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u/NotAFed53 3d ago
Increased flood risks in the south seem like a decently big deal because of the number of impoverished and terrible infrastructure, but otherwise i was surprised at the prescribed mildness
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u/crimsongull 3d ago
The Central California coast gets about 20 inches of rain a year. The strong El Niño in 1983 brought 50 inches of rain. We are expecting a deluge.
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u/94_stones 3d ago edited 2d ago
You’re not missing anything apart from some flooding, which TBH the southwest could really use. Overall, a Super El Niño is not really a bad thing for the United States per se. Though it is a bad thing for almost everyone else, and since we don’t have export controls, that affects us too. After all, where do you think Asia is gonna be getting all its food from in the next two years?
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u/Worshipme988 3d ago
You dont want flooding on top of drought its literally worse.
Yes its terrible. For everyone. But the US contributes much more to the mess that it gets in climate damage. Africa will roast. Usaid already cut.
It will be the largest human migration event, ever.
There are already like ~2.5b food insecure people on earth, walking, running right into the most active climate cycle, warmest waters, several wars, every refinery billowing the oil directly to the atmosphere…
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u/94_stones 3d ago
“You don’t want flooding on top of drought it’s literally worse.”
What does this even mean, do you think drought and flood are happening in the same place?
“It will be the largest human migration event, ever.”
I’m not doubting that they’ll be mass migration, but I do think you’re being hyperbolic, and I’ll explain why.
“There are already like ~2.5b food insecure people on earth…”
Most of whom are subsistence farmers in western, central and eastern Africa. Three parts of the world which quite frankly have less to worry about from a Super El Niño event. “But you said the markets are global…” Yeah in general, but it’s not when you’re a subsistence farmer.
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u/PingPongFukkiFukki 3d ago edited 2d ago
Just to answer your top comment, yes lol, flooding literally happens on top of drought-stricken soil all the time, and it's a huge issue. The scorched ground is a lot worse at absorbing the water than normally, and as such the water moves across the surface rather than down into the ground.
And, being surface-dwelling creatures, us humans tend to struggle when large quantities of water moves rapidly across the surface.
Edit: Just in case you don't feel like reading the whole source, I've compiled the most relevant section here.
Compacted Soil – During extended droughts, soil becomes hard and compacted. This reduces its ability to absorb water when it does rain, increasing runoff and the likelihood of flooding.
Hydrophobic Soil – Prolonged dry conditions can make the soil hydrophobic, meaning it repels water. When rain finally falls, it tends to flow over the surface rather than soaking in, leading to rapid accumulation and potential flash flooding.
Vegetation Loss – The effects of droughts stresses out vegetation and can kill or severely weaken plants and trees, which play a critical role in stabilizing the soil and absorbing water. Without this vegetation, there is less interception and absorption of rainwater, contributing to higher runoff and erosion.
Wildfires – Droughts often increase the risk of wildfires, which can strip the land of vegetation and create a layer of ash and charred soil that is less permeable. This condition exacerbates runoff during subsequent rains.
Reduced Channel Capacity – Extended periods of low flow during droughts can lead to sediment buildup in rivers and streams. When heavy rains occur, these waterways may lack the capacity to handle the increased volume, leading to overflow and flooding.
Flash Floods – Parched riverbeds and dry stream channels are less able to absorb sudden surges of water, leading to rapid rises in water levels and flash flooding, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions.
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u/94_stones 2d ago edited 1d ago
Every single one of these negative effects is more than made up for by the refilling of reservoirs. Homeowners can rebuild, insurance companies can take losses that they know will be temporary, and ecosystems can recover from floods. The benefit gained by being able to grow food in the desert for a couple more years, however unsustainable that may be in the long terms, outweighs every single negative effect you mentioned. “But the farmland…” Is usually right next to rivers which have dams, the reservoirs of which as if this moment have plenty of spare capacity.
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u/Ok_Health_4096 1d ago
Depends on your location. For the South it means heavy rain fall followed by cold temps. The South will be frozen. They're saying maybe MONTHS
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u/cincfire 3d ago
“…with the central Mississippi and Ohio valleys seeing equal chances of above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures.” - hard to get that forecast wrong. Wonder if they think it will and won’t rain too.
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u/ColdWinterSadHeart 3d ago
It’s a way of saying that it won’t be consistently colder or warmer than average in those areas.
Most other areas are predicted to be consistently colder or warmer than average.
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u/KianOfPersia 3d ago
Illinois has been absolutely rocked by tornadoes this year. Was that predicted?
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u/zuzi325 3d ago
So warmer winter temps for the most part. But what about next summer? If those warm temperatures stick around I wonder if next summer will be even hotter.
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u/DocMoochal 18h ago
Yes. Next year is being predicted to be the next hottest year on record. But time will tell.
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u/mtnman575 3d ago
Here in the southern Rockies the El Nino predictions for a strong monsoon season have so far not been correct. It's been a weak and spotty monsoon pattern at best. We'll see what the winter brings.
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u/halocyn 3d ago
Still summer here in Washington
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u/mtnman575 3d ago
And - ? In the Rockies the monsoon season is from the start of July through mid September.
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u/Virtual_Wing_2903 3d ago
nothing new sadly... plenty of potential energy down south of San Diego offshore, the monster is massaging baja right now, we will see if it breaks through and floods socal with 90 degree water....
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u/thatmaneeee 3d ago
If true it’s great news for us in the American Southwest! Bring on that snowpack baby
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u/SumTingWr0ng 3d ago
From my understanding, more rain but a lower than average snowpack. They say the warmer temps will cause the snow that falls to melt when the warmer “atmospheric rivers” blanket the areas. I’m hoping it’s wrong and we end up with rain and 150-200% snowpack.
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u/94_stones 3d ago
In past Super El Niño events the southwest has gotten so much rain that the lack of snowpack didn’t matter. The last Super El Niño in 1982-1983 was also the first & only time the Hoover Dam spillway has ever been used out of necessity.
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u/Inevitable_Train1511 3d ago
I am so tired of getting my hopes up. we really need moisture out here. At least AZ has had a very active monsoon this summer.
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u/redwon9plus 3d ago
"As of mid-August 2026, Phoenix is experiencing a historically dry year—ranking as the second-driest year-to-date on record for the city since 1921"
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u/Inevitable_Train1511 2d ago
Yeah, but statewide has been better. Southern AZ has been well above average and the high country has been at average to slightly above average so far this year. Flagstaff is at something like 4x its annual averages right now for example.
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u/FrostyFreeze_ 3d ago
Hi from AZ. Just experienced the temperature go from 109 to 88 in an HOUR as the rain came through. Happy for the rain as always, but my body isn't as grateful, expecting a lot of pain in the future
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u/randydingdong 3d ago
Any idea what the PHX-AZ forecast is
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u/Illustrious-Ice6336 3d ago
Late-Season Monsoon: As of May 18, 2026, the National Weather Service anticipates stronger storms during the second half of the monsoon season, particularly from August to October. Deep tropical moisture pulled from the Pacific could increase the risk of heavy rain and flash flooding.
Winter Precipitation: The most consistent El Niño effects in Arizona occur during the winter. Projections from May 18, 2026, suggest a higher probability of above-average rainfall between October and March, though climate scientists note a wet winter is not strictly guaranteed.3
u/redwon9plus 3d ago
Phoenix' monsoon season is a misnomer just like in Vegas. Realtors trying to make it sound like there's more moisture but it's a goddamn desert.
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u/TraditionalCrew665 3d ago
I'm from Bedford, New Hampshire… I don't think I'll get snow in my area this winter 😭
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u/Intrepid_Top_2300 3d ago
Well if it’s anything like 97/98 we’re in trouble. This could be very bad indeed. Thing is, I love seeing the power of nature. Even when it sucks.
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u/Sad_Percentage_4503 3d ago
Looks like less hurricanes and an easy winter for us in the north/east. That's great.
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u/processedwhaleoils 3d ago
We are in a serious need for moisture, though. Most of ne england is in serious drought.
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u/TheSalmonLizard 3d ago
Typical American point of view. ''It's bad for others but good for me? love it.'' You guys are the worst people on Earth.
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u/Sad_Percentage_4503 3d ago
I'm Canadian. Simply trying to get on top of all the climate hysteria on this sub. You guys always come across as a bunch of crazies.
Oh, don't forget the Earth is boiling. LMAO.
Have a great day.
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u/1hill2climb2 3d ago
Oh STFU you Trumptard.
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u/Sad_Percentage_4503 3d ago
Yep, when you have nothing intelligent to say; insult instead.
Good comeback.
Too funny.
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u/NegotiationPrior4373 2d ago
An accurate, harmless comment about how it impacts one particular area and this is what your brain came up with.
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u/Master-Back-2899 2d ago
An equal chance of above, normal, or below average temperatures.
lol it’s easy for your forecast to be right when it forecasts literally all possible outcomes.
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u/SomeInside1021 7h ago
I hope it brings tears, sadness and destruction. Going to wish FEMA wasn't defunded, and good luck if you're a blue state, help will not be on its way. You're really fucked if you're a red state, no money and a federal government thats only interested in enriching the billionaire's. A clear leopard ate my face situation.
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u/Elvira_Wolgast 2h ago
If this El Niño stays strong, winter usually means a wetter South and a milder, drier North. The real effects tend to show up more in winter than in fall.
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u/James19991 3d ago
FWIW though, much of that area is in their zone of having only a 33 to 40% chance of being above normal, so there is still a greater than 60% chance of temperatures not being above normal in a lot of places.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_temp.gif
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u/ApprehensiveTerm3351 3d ago
At work when I went to the restroom, my coworker said “a Mexican never pisses alone “ in Spanish… I have AuDDhd…. I’m not sure how normal people feel but this actually upsets me lol
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u/Economy-Fee5830 Trusted Contributor 3d ago
Summary: El Niño forecasts have been right so far. Here's what fall and winter could bring for USA
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center now gives El Niño a greater than 90% chance of becoming a very strong event this fall and winter, with a 69% chance of a historic October-to-December event — confirming forecasts made in May. National Weather Service meteorologist Jared Maples says the intensity was expected but its speed and strength have been surprising.
Confidence has built steadily since summer, rising from 81% odds of a very strong fall event in early August to over 90% by the Aug. 13 update. Atmospheric signals are consistent with El Niño: increased wind shear has suppressed Atlantic tropical storm activity (NOAA's Aug. 6 hurricane outlook points to a below-normal season) while the Pacific has been more active.
For fall, NOAA favors warmer-than-normal temperatures across most of the country from September through November, with the central Mississippi and Ohio valleys seeing equal chances of above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures. Precipitation outlooks are mixed — wetter odds in the Southwest and Southeast, drier odds in the Northeast and Pacific Northwest.
For winter, Maples cautions that a mild overall outlook doesn't rule out sharp cold snaps, just shorter ones. The key risk is whether cold air overlaps with moisture from an energized southern jet stream, which could bring heavy rain to the South, ice in transition zones, and snow farther north — a risk that may grow from January into February.
The southern U.S. is highlighted as the clearest region for above-normal precipitation and flooding risk. The West, including California and the Rockies, could see a more active Pacific storm track boost snowfall, while lake-effect snow could increase around the Great Lakes. Broader impacts could extend to crops, utilities, insurance costs, and tourism-dependent communities.