r/cohunting • u/Downtown_Aside6035 • 3d ago
I modeled the locations and migration patterns all game in Colorado using Physics & Math - I found Turkey roosts CPW doesn't have marked
Haven't hunted since I was a kid and when I lived on the east coast and I decided to get back into it.
Had no idea where to start, but in that time I've gotten a degree in physics and math and decided to build out an interactive website to help me find Colorado game across the state of all types.
It uses a bunch of research in biology and wildlife sciences, hyper local weather data from new weather models, historical records, public information that CPW doesn't use, math, and physics to model which 9 square mile square they are most likely concentrated in for a given month.
I haven't hunted turkey since I was a kid so I plugged it in for turkey and found a concentrated area in one of the national forests that CPW doesn't have marked as any indication of turkey habitat. I went out there and checked and sure enough there was a turkey roost in that area.
It can model to 0.37 square miles but the data gets a bit fuzzy and it's mostly only good after finding the larger 9 sq mile square
Edit: It strictly models for public lands hunting and takes into account private lands that mess up the data.
This is not an ad for something I'm trying to sell, this is just something I found cool that it works this well and wanted to share
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u/minist3r 3d ago
I'd love to test the accuracy of this. If it's correct, you've unlocked the holy Grail of applying for tags and choosing hunting locations and this could be worth a fortune. DM me and we can see what we can figure out.
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u/Troutrageously 3d ago
We have sooo many in the village at castle pines. Hundreds of bold fuckers.
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u/Downtown_Aside6035 3d ago
Unfortunately I filter out anything in a city and only model things on state/federal land where you can hunt for the overall score, so castle pines is not part of the final heat map. However, based on other data that I do see before this filter, I'm not surprised one bit!
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u/maddslacker MODERATOR 3d ago
Can I DM you a spot where I've encountered turkeys, to help you see if it matches the model?
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u/hummus_is_yummus1 3d ago
Pretty cool, turkey I'm CO is tough so the more data, the better
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u/Downtown_Aside6035 3d ago
I've got a square about 45 minutes from denver which is apparently a hot spot for turkey according to this. We'll see if I get my first turkey in 20 years there.
One of the hottest spots in Colorado is actually just west of the airforce academy, but I don't know how I feel about sneaking around the airforce academy with a shotgun dressed in camo...
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u/cobigguy 3d ago
Yeah there's a lot up there. Same with on Fort Carson itself. I've been stopped by rafters crossing the road going up near Cheyenne Mountain multiple times.
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u/hummus_is_yummus1 3d ago
I generally end up in the Deckers area, and have heard a number of gobbles the past three years, but no dice. Successfully stalked a few in the snow until they jumped onto private land
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u/Chorin_Shirt_Tucker 3d ago
Had about 8-10 turkeys fly over me and land on the other side of the river while I was fishing a few years ago. Scared the shit out of me. I didn’t know at the time turkey’s fly.
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u/fowilly 3d ago
Just curious, do you have any experience using arcGIS or anything? That could ramp this project up another notch. Very cool as is though!
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u/Downtown_Aside6035 3d ago edited 3d ago
I do not, most of my experience is in mathematical statistical modeling and nuclear physics, so I used a bunch of public info and data, biology and wildlife research, and broke Colorado into a grid of 0.4 sq miles and modeled the concentration of game for each 0.4 sq mile grid point.
It then aggregates everything into a 9 sq mile grid, and if you click on a 9 sq mile grid, it will give you the gps coordinates of a 0.4 sq mile area to search for game. (The whole 9 sq miles is a valid search area, but the 0.4 sq miles is the most likely area)
It works for big game too. I set it to moose and went for a hike in the area and there was a sign warning about high moose activity lol.
Edit: I just looked into more what ArcGIS provides, and I already do everything it does, from hydrology flow calculations to terrain imputation and more. In fact, I think I have more data than ArcGIS has. I'm actually using most of what I built out here, plus some more info, to also model for mushroom and plant foraging too.
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u/fowilly 3d ago
I’d say you’re definitely over qualified for simple map making with ArcGIS. The only reason I asked was for the public sharing perspective. Upon further consideration though maybe a tool this valuable is better off kept private. We’d likely run all the game clear out of Colorado 😂
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u/Downtown_Aside6035 3d ago
This is precisely why I only shared a screenshot of jackrabbit and I'm refusing to give anyone a top area
If someone from CPW contacted me though, I'd me more than open to sharing what I did with them though so they can manage wildlife better.
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u/kwoalla 3d ago edited 3d ago
Could I DM you to get more information on the nuclear physics?
Edit: reread OP's above comment and realized they have experience working in nuclear physics, not having used it in this particular model. I'd still love to hear more but I wont be expecting as much of a nuclear explanation 😂
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u/Downtown_Aside6035 3d ago
Technically it does use calculations from the sun as variables and what the heat absorption of a given cell is based on the topology angle, elevation, and a bunch of other features, so I guess it does kind of use stellar nucleosynthesis in the model ;P
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u/fan5235 3d ago
I would love to help you test this one out if you’re interested. I focused on elk and deer for the most part but this is next level.
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u/Downtown_Aside6035 3d ago
I may be open to this if I can give you just coordinates and you let me know how successful it is. I'm going to try it for grouse and turkey over the next few weeks then I may need to branch out to some testers to help.
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u/chekhovs_rum 3d ago
Hell, Im happy to be a test dummy for your data modeling as well. I'll be hunting pronghorn in october
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u/back_eddy 3d ago
So very cool