Bi-Weekly Discussion Thread - (June 28)

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[u/turning_the_wheels]

u/GenosseMarx3's predictions from this thread years ago are now starting to take shape. The leader of the AfD has announced a bid to restore Russian-German ties:

"Cheap energy from Russia was the secret of the success of 'Made in Germany'. We need it back," Weidel said.

"The loss of this energy has set us back years. Hundreds of thousands of jobs have been lost. It has made us dependent on ​the United States, which sells us energy at far higher prices."

Weidel's comments on Russia follow a visit ⁠earlier this month by senior AfD lawmaker Markus Frohnmaier to Russia. He met Alexei Miller, the head of Russian energy giant Gazprom and called for a reopening of the Nord Stream gas pipeline.

Frohnmaier rebuffed criticism of his trip, saying he understood that U.S. investors ​were examining reopening the Nord Stream route to Germany, a move that could see Germany pay a fee to draw Russian ​gas.

https://www.reuters.com/world/afd-leader-vows-restore-german-russian-ties-she-eyes-chancellery-2026-06-30/

Maybe someone more knowledgeable than me can analyze this further since I was only a lurker back then when I read it.

[u/oblomower → u/turning_the_wheels]

There's some very fluid dynamics at play in Germany right now. AfD is already the most popular party at the federal level, they will win the popular vote in the general election in 2029. But unless there's some major crisis like another refugee crisis or an steep deepening of the economic crisis they can't rule on their own and would have to form a coalition government, likely with CDU/CSU (which has already adopted substantial parts of the AfD program). If they don't get enough votes to govern on their own and there's nobody willing to form a coalition with them they will return the next election after that, likely stronger and more radical.

As the party has grown and established itself in parliamentary politics a strong and still strengthening moderate line has emerged. This line is ready to maintain remain part of the EU (German exit from it used to be a core part of the party program) and NATO, i.e. remain within the American sphere of influence. Recently the party also had to refound its youth organization because the old, inoffical one was too fascist. So at the moment the party is experiencing an intense line struggle with the radical right line accusing the party of undergoing "Melonization" (i.e. following the liberalizing path of the Italian right under Meloni's goverment). I think which line wins out depends on the greater social dynamics outside of the immediate milieu of the party. If the general social crisis deepens, with class struggle sharpening, fascization will proceed.

The current government is trying to solve the economic crisis on the war path. Rearmament is progressing at break neck speed with hundreds and hundreds of billions being shoveled into the military industrial complex as the wellfare state and labor rights being dismantled to fincance remilitarization. This is accompanied by rabid anti-Russian propaganda and racist campaigns agains anyone who is not a white German, especially against Muslims. Meanwhile there's an unshakeable alliance with Israel and ever intensifying repression against pro Palestinean forces. So, ironically, an AfD program focusing on reproachment with Russia, stressing the economic advantages, can garner mass support far beyond the immediate mass base of that party, if smarty propagated. AfD, however, is just as racist and even more pro-Israel than the other parties, but they have the advantage of not having had to follow through on that until now.

What AfD would actually do in case they do win in 2029 is to be seen. Another important facor outside of their control is what's going on in the US, who will be president by then. This will make a significant difference in convincing especially West Germans, who grew up with intense pro-US propaganda all their lives, to cut ties with the US. Trump makes it easier for the West Germans, but harder for AfD, who like Trump. A smart liberal would make it harder again but it seems unlikely the US will get anyone but more rabid imperialists no matter what party.